Pointwise
Steelers will be totally focused & are profitable 24-10 ATS on the division road.
Pittsburgh 23 - CLEVELAND 10 - (1:00) --
A win clinches AFC North for the
Steelers, & altho the Browns have had their moments, & have normally hung
tuff, with 6 of last 7 decided by TD or less SU, they've covered only 1 of those
games. Held Ravens to only 15 FDs & 258 yds, but 3 picks from McCoy, so
Mangini is hanging by a thread. Pitt has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 7.8
ppg, & brings its 3rd ranked "D" vs Cleveland's 29th ranked "O" in this. The
Steelers, & altho the Browns have had their moments, & have normally hung
tuff, with 6 of last 7 decided by TD or less SU, they've covered only 1 of those
games. Held Ravens to only 15 FDs & 258 yds, but 3 picks from McCoy, so
Mangini is hanging by a thread. Pitt has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 7.8
ppg, & brings its 3rd ranked "D" vs Cleveland's 29th ranked "O" in this. The
Steelers will be totally focused & are profitable 24-10 ATS on the division road.
Hentai Sports
Game : Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (NFL) 04:15pm EST
Prediction : Green Bay Packers -10
Analysis : Try to figure out how the Bears will perform. Even if their first string offense is on the field they sometimes struggle, and at Lambeau I’m just scared for Mike Martz and Jay Cutler. The Packers can really get after the ball, and well, the Bears LOVE to give up sacks. I think you will see Jay Cutler out there for a few series with all of the key skill players, especially Devin Hester and Matt Forte, looking on from the sidelines. Backup QB Todd Collins has lots of experience so he shouldn’t embarrass himself out there too to much. Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Weather should NOT play much of a factor in this one. These two teams are used to the cold. The high isn’t expected to inch past 20 degrees Sunday in Green Bay, but the frigid temperatures aren’t likely to be accompanied by snow. Rodgers has completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 1,682 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers returned from the concussion last week to throw for a career-high 404 yards and four touchdowns. He is 10-1 in his past 11 home starts. It is the last game of the season and if Green Bay wins they continue into the playoffs. They way I see this going down is with Rodgers feeling better as of late, the Bears resting starters, this game could ugly fast and I think the Pack will win by 14+
Game : Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (NFL) 04:15pm EST
Prediction : Green Bay Packers -10
Analysis : Try to figure out how the Bears will perform. Even if their first string offense is on the field they sometimes struggle, and at Lambeau I’m just scared for Mike Martz and Jay Cutler. The Packers can really get after the ball, and well, the Bears LOVE to give up sacks. I think you will see Jay Cutler out there for a few series with all of the key skill players, especially Devin Hester and Matt Forte, looking on from the sidelines. Backup QB Todd Collins has lots of experience so he shouldn’t embarrass himself out there too to much. Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Weather should NOT play much of a factor in this one. These two teams are used to the cold. The high isn’t expected to inch past 20 degrees Sunday in Green Bay, but the frigid temperatures aren’t likely to be accompanied by snow. Rodgers has completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 1,682 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers returned from the concussion last week to throw for a career-high 404 yards and four touchdowns. He is 10-1 in his past 11 home starts. It is the last game of the season and if Green Bay wins they continue into the playoffs. They way I see this going down is with Rodgers feeling better as of late, the Bears resting starters, this game could ugly fast and I think the Pack will win by 14+
DR BOB
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 23 INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 26
01:15 PM Pacific, 02-Jan-11
The Colts don’t necessarily have to win this game since they can make the playoffs with a loss by the Jaguars, but the public certainly sees this as a must win game and the point spread reflects that. There is no other reason for the spread to by 9 ½ points in this game other than the Colts’ being in close to a must win situation. However, there is usually value in going against teams in late season must win games, as teams in must win (or will be eliminated from the playoff race) situation are just 50-85-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Last week the Chargers needed to win to stay alive and they lost straight up to the lowly Bengals. Jacksonville was not officially in a must win since they could have stayed alive with a loss if the Colts also lost, but the Jags were basically in a must win and they didn’t cover the spread either in their overtime win against Washington. While this game is not necessarily a must win, it certainly has that feel (like Jacksonville last week) and the spread is high because of the Colts’ incentive. If the Colts could play well whenever they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation to begin with, so their extra incentive isn’t likely to have any effect on their performance in this game. The Titans are out of the playoffs, but teams out of the playoffs are pretty good bets the final couple of weeks since the public seems to be under the impression that such teams simply give up and don’t play hard – which is not the case. In fact, teams that are 2 games or more below .500 are 199-167-6 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team at .500 or better. While that’s not a trend to necessarily base a bet on, it certainly makes my point that bad teams don’t give up on the season as many fans think they might.
Despite Tennessee’s 6-9 record the Titans are still a pretty good team that has actually out-scored their opponents 22.4 to 21.1 points per game this season while playing a schedule that is 0.3 points easier than average (which makes them 1.0 points better than average based on compensated points). The Colts have out-scored their opponents by 3.0 points per game while playing a schedule that is 0.2 points tougher than average, so Indy is 3.2 points better than average based on compensated points. That’s only a 2.2 points differential and Indianapolis by 5 or 5 ½ points would be a reasonable spread in this game based on that analysis. However, the Colts are favored by 9 ½ points because this game is being viewed as a must win game, which makes absolutely no difference. So, we clearly have some value on Tennessee in this game.
Taking a look at this game from a yardage perspective leads me to the same conclusion. Tennessee has averaged 5.4 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I actually rate the Titans at 0.2 yppl better than average with big play WR Kenny Britt back healthy after missing some games during his team’s losing streak. Kerry Collins has averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per pass play in the games when Britt played (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and Collins had a pretty good game against the Colts in week 14 in Britt’s first game back from injury. Indianapolis is 0.4 yppp better than average defending the pass for the season but the pass defense has been only average without starting cornerbacks Jerraud Powers (IR) and Kelvin Hayden, who will miss his 5th consecutive game with a neck injury. The Colts are 0.3 yards per rush worse than average defending the run, so the Titans’ Chris Johnson should have a good game with the extra motivation of being left off the Pro Bowl team (he’s pissed and should be especially focused this week). My math model projects 5.5 yards per play for the Titans in this game but Tennessee is a big play offense that doesn’t sustain a lot of drives, so their projected yardage is just 306 yards.
The Colts’ offense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season, as Indy’s 5.7 yppl has come against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Indy is not quite as good throwing the ball without injured WR Austin Collie, who averaged 9.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season (649 yards on 71 pass attempts), but the running game is a bit better with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes back in action (although they’re still worse than average running the ball). I still rate the Colts at just 0.1 yppl better than average with their current personnel but I rate the Titans’ defense at 0.1 yppl better than average also. Tennessee is actually 0.4 yppl better than average defensively for the season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), but that unit hasn’t been as good in the second half of the season and using their last 7 games rates them at 0.1 yppl better than average, which is the rating I decided to use in my math model. My math projects a modest 5.4 yppl for the Colts in this game but they should run a lot of plays and I get 400 total yards for Indy.
While I have the Colts running 19 more plays than the Titans are expected to run I still favor Indy by just 2 ½ points based on the projected stats since Tennessee has a huge advantage in special teams. Titans’ coach Jeff Fisher’s job could be on the line, which should motivate his players to play hard, but Fisher said he’s going to get some of his younger players more playing time while still trying to win this game against a hated division rival. That’s a bit of a concern and will keep me from making this a Best Bet unless the line goes up to 10 points. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more and I’ll take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes up to +10 points.
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 23 INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 26
01:15 PM Pacific, 02-Jan-11
The Colts don’t necessarily have to win this game since they can make the playoffs with a loss by the Jaguars, but the public certainly sees this as a must win game and the point spread reflects that. There is no other reason for the spread to by 9 ½ points in this game other than the Colts’ being in close to a must win situation. However, there is usually value in going against teams in late season must win games, as teams in must win (or will be eliminated from the playoff race) situation are just 50-85-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Last week the Chargers needed to win to stay alive and they lost straight up to the lowly Bengals. Jacksonville was not officially in a must win since they could have stayed alive with a loss if the Colts also lost, but the Jags were basically in a must win and they didn’t cover the spread either in their overtime win against Washington. While this game is not necessarily a must win, it certainly has that feel (like Jacksonville last week) and the spread is high because of the Colts’ incentive. If the Colts could play well whenever they needed to they wouldn’t be in a must win situation to begin with, so their extra incentive isn’t likely to have any effect on their performance in this game. The Titans are out of the playoffs, but teams out of the playoffs are pretty good bets the final couple of weeks since the public seems to be under the impression that such teams simply give up and don’t play hard – which is not the case. In fact, teams that are 2 games or more below .500 are 199-167-6 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team at .500 or better. While that’s not a trend to necessarily base a bet on, it certainly makes my point that bad teams don’t give up on the season as many fans think they might.
Despite Tennessee’s 6-9 record the Titans are still a pretty good team that has actually out-scored their opponents 22.4 to 21.1 points per game this season while playing a schedule that is 0.3 points easier than average (which makes them 1.0 points better than average based on compensated points). The Colts have out-scored their opponents by 3.0 points per game while playing a schedule that is 0.2 points tougher than average, so Indy is 3.2 points better than average based on compensated points. That’s only a 2.2 points differential and Indianapolis by 5 or 5 ½ points would be a reasonable spread in this game based on that analysis. However, the Colts are favored by 9 ½ points because this game is being viewed as a must win game, which makes absolutely no difference. So, we clearly have some value on Tennessee in this game.
Taking a look at this game from a yardage perspective leads me to the same conclusion. Tennessee has averaged 5.4 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I actually rate the Titans at 0.2 yppl better than average with big play WR Kenny Britt back healthy after missing some games during his team’s losing streak. Kerry Collins has averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per pass play in the games when Britt played (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and Collins had a pretty good game against the Colts in week 14 in Britt’s first game back from injury. Indianapolis is 0.4 yppp better than average defending the pass for the season but the pass defense has been only average without starting cornerbacks Jerraud Powers (IR) and Kelvin Hayden, who will miss his 5th consecutive game with a neck injury. The Colts are 0.3 yards per rush worse than average defending the run, so the Titans’ Chris Johnson should have a good game with the extra motivation of being left off the Pro Bowl team (he’s pissed and should be especially focused this week). My math model projects 5.5 yards per play for the Titans in this game but Tennessee is a big play offense that doesn’t sustain a lot of drives, so their projected yardage is just 306 yards.
The Colts’ offense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season, as Indy’s 5.7 yppl has come against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Indy is not quite as good throwing the ball without injured WR Austin Collie, who averaged 9.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season (649 yards on 71 pass attempts), but the running game is a bit better with Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes back in action (although they’re still worse than average running the ball). I still rate the Colts at just 0.1 yppl better than average with their current personnel but I rate the Titans’ defense at 0.1 yppl better than average also. Tennessee is actually 0.4 yppl better than average defensively for the season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), but that unit hasn’t been as good in the second half of the season and using their last 7 games rates them at 0.1 yppl better than average, which is the rating I decided to use in my math model. My math projects a modest 5.4 yppl for the Colts in this game but they should run a lot of plays and I get 400 total yards for Indy.
While I have the Colts running 19 more plays than the Titans are expected to run I still favor Indy by just 2 ½ points based on the projected stats since Tennessee has a huge advantage in special teams. Titans’ coach Jeff Fisher’s job could be on the line, which should motivate his players to play hard, but Fisher said he’s going to get some of his younger players more playing time while still trying to win this game against a hated division rival. That’s a bit of a concern and will keep me from making this a Best Bet unless the line goes up to 10 points. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more and I’ll take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes up to +10 points.
I just got off the phone with Pointwise. They said the the "Stars" are the ratings from the phone service. On the Phone service, the higher the stars, the better the play. On the "Ratings" service, the lower the number, the better the play. The phone service comes out on Friday and the regular service comes out on Tuesday.
Sorry ACPAL.
