NFL Week 17 NFL Games
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5) - Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Oakland winning last three visits here; Raiders could become first NFL team ever to go 6-0 in division and still miss playoffs- they beat Chiefs 23-20 in OT in Week 9, in flagfest where there were 27 accepted penalties for 240 yards. Chiefs clinched division last week, have playoff game next week but are expected to play their regulars here. KC won five of last six games, is 7-0 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Oakland is 2-5 on road, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 25-1-8-32-7 points. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games, 4-3 if favored. Four of last five Raider games went over; three of last four KC games stayed under.
Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2) - New England generally plays its guys no matter what, but cautioned advised, since they’re dead here if they decide to rest Brady (Welker tore knee up in similarly meaningless game LY). Dolphins are 6-1 on road, 1-7 at home; their only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore (+5); they’re 5-1 as road underdog. Fish lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-21-10 points. Patriots blocked FG for TD, ran kick back for TD, were +4 in turnovers and had defensive score in 41-14 rout of Dolphins (+1) in Miami back in Week 4. AFC East home teams are 2-8 vs. spread in divisional games this year, 1-5 if favored. Eight of last nine Patriot games went over total; six of last nine Miami games stayed under. Pats are +22 in turnovers the last seven games.
Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6) - Indy clinches AFC South with win here, against team that lost seven of last eight games, amid reported locker room divide over QB/coach rift. Tennessee lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two years, 23-0/27-17; they lost last four road games by combined score of 116-56 after winning first three road games this season. Colts won last three games, scored 30+ points in last four behind QB Manning. Indy is 4-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 24-10-13-6-10 points (lost to Chargers/ Cowboys). Five of last six Indy games went over total, as did Titans’ last three games. AFC South home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games this season, 5-1 if favored.
Giants (9-6)@ Redskins (6-9) - Gutcheck time for Jersey squad that allowed 73 points in last 68:00, blowing 31-10 lead to Eagles, then getting waxed at Lambeau last week. Giants won five in row, eight of last nine series games, taking last four visits here by 6-7-16-33 points, but they’ve also turned ball over 41 times, six more than anyone else in NFL. Giants are 4-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites; they’re 8-0 when they give up 20 or less points. 1-6 when they give up more. Redskins snapped 4-game skid with OT win in Jacksonville last week; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. If Packers beat Bears (games are at same time), Big Blue is done. Five of last six Redskin games stayed under total. Underdogs are 7-3 vs. spread in NFC East divisional games this year.
Jaguars (8-7) @ Texans (5-10) - Jax needs win and Titan upset in Indy to claim AFC South title. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Jags losing three of last four visits here- they won first series meeting this year 31-24 (-1.5) at home, outrushing Texans 165-81, outgaining them by 96 yards in a game where they had 10-yard edge in average field position. Houston lost eight of last nine games after 4-2 start; they blew 17-0 halftime lead last week to QB making his second career start. Only team Texans held under 24 points all year was Tennessee when they started 3rd-string QB, who making first (and likely last) NFL start. Home teams are 8-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games, 3-1 as home dogs. Six of last eight Texan games went over total.
Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10) - Pitt is 13-1 in last 14 series games, but did lose 13-6 here LY , ending streak of 8 straight wins on Lake Erie; Steelers need win here to wrap up AFC North title and first round bye. Pitt won 28-10 at home (-14) in first series meeting, Big Ben’s first game back from suspension- he averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt while Browns sacked Delhomme five times. Cleveland lost last three games by 7-2-10 points, scoring average of 11 peg (3 TDs on last 26 drives)- they’re 3-4 at home, with four of the seven decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Steelers won five of last six games, are 6-1 on road, but their last four road wins were all by 6 or less points- they’re 2-2 as road favorites. AFC North underdogs are 5-5 vs. spread, 2-2 at home.
Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4) - Not many 4-11 clubs can boast of two two-game win streaks, but Cincy can; they allowed total of just 123 rushing yards in beating Browns/Chargers last two weeks, and Palmer averaged 9.1/12.6 ypa, doing better with Owens/Johnson not playing. Ravens (-2) lost 15-10 at Cincy in Week 2, as Flacco was 17-39 passing with four picks (-4 TO ratio), but they’ve won/covered last three games overall, scoring 28 ppg (8 TDs on last 30 drives). Only way this game matters is if Browns upset Steelers, then Ravens would be playing for division title and a bye. Baltimore is 3-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3-16-7-6 points (lost to Steelers at home). Bengals’ last three road games stayed under the total.
Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5) - Gang Green is pretty much locked into #6 seed here; how much will they play ailing players, since they have playoff game next week? Jets (-5) won 38-14 in Buffalo back in Week 4, running ball for 273 yards, outgaining Bills by 221 yards- they had 13-yard edge in field position, starting three of 13 drives in Buffalo territory. Bills are 4-3 in last seven games after 0-8 start- they covered five of last six true road games, and won three of last four visits here. Jets lost three of last four games, losing 38-34 in Chicago last week when Bears scored four TDs on drives of less than 50 yards, but at least they scored three TDs, after one TD in 31-drive slump. Seven of last nine Buffalo games stayed under total, but 11 of last 14 Jet games went over.
Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10) - Minnesota travels on very short week (played in Philly Tuesday) to face Lion squad they beat 24-10 (-11) back in Week 3, one of only three Detroit non-covers this season. Vikings outrushed Lions 183-63 in sloppy game (both teams had 3 turnovers, Vikes had 12 penalties/100 yards). Detroit is 12-3 vs. spread this year, winning last three SU, after going 4-40 SU in previous 44 games. Minnesota is 16-1 in last 17 series games, winning 7 of last 8 here- they won 20-16/27-13 in last two visits here. Not sure of motivation for Minnesota after playing three primetime games in three different cities in last three weeks. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. Home teams are 6-4 vs. spread in NFC North divisional games, 4-2 as home dogs.
Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6) - Green Bay needs win to clinch Wild Card; Bears clinched first round bye Tuesday, so this game is meaningless to them, other than being rivalry game. Packers (-3) lost 20-17 in Week 3 at Chicago, getting whistled for 18 penalties, 152 yards- they outgained Bears by 103 yards, still lost. Rodgers came back last week as Pack spanked Giants- GB is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 27-2-4-38-18-28 points. Bears are now 7-1 since their bye (only loss to 13-2 Patriots); they scored 78 points in last two games (8 TDs on last 24 drives). Average total in last four series games is 36. Last five Chicago games went over total, as have three of last four green Bay games. Pack wins this game, Giants/Bucs games become meaningless for them.
Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5) - Philly has playoff game next week, could rest injured guys here, against team they beat 30-27 three weeks ago (-4), outrushing Dallas 171-110, averaging 9.2 ypa. Eagle defense allowed 24+ points in each of last five games (17 TDs on last 55 drives). Philly is just 4-3 at home, with three of four wins by 10+ points. Cowboys are scoring 31.3 ppg since Garrett became HC, after scoring 20.1 when Phillips was in charge- not sure if Kitna is good to go here after getting banged up vs. Cardinals. If he can’t go, backup McGee makes first NFL start. He was pretty good in relief in close loss at Arizona last week. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this year, 5-2 on road. Last 12 Dallas games went over the total, as did nine of last 11 Philly games.
Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3) - Atlanta needs this game to clinch #1 seed in NFC after tough loss Monday; they whacked Carolina 31-10 (-7) three weeks ago, running ball for 212 yards, holding Panthers to 2.7 ypa. Falcons are 4-3 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 7 points. Panthers lost last two visits here, 45-28/28-20; they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17-24 points. Carolina played last Thursday, so they had four more days than Atlanta to prepare for this, but coaches are probably looking for new jobs too, since new regime will be coming in after season. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year; home favorites are 1-5. Last three Carolina games stayed under the total.
Buccaneers (9-6) @ Saints (11-4) - Bucs can still make playoffs if they win and Packers/Giants lose; game doesn’t matter to Saints unless Carolina somehow upsets the Falcons. New Orleans (-5.5) crushed the Bucs 31-6 back in Week 6, outrushing Tampa 212-42, holding Bucs to 4.9 ypa. Saints had short week after Monday night win in rivalry game; they covered last three home games, winning by 10-15-18 points. Tampa is 2-3 in last five games, but none of the losses were by more than seven points; they’re 6-3 as an underdog this year, 6-0 on road, losing away games by 6-7 points- they’re 5-2 SU on road. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South games, 1-5 if favored. Last three Buccaneer games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10) - 49ers (-1.5) won first meeting 27-6 on road, outrushing Arizona 261-13; game was actually on Monday Night Football, some fine scheduling there. Niners put Singletary out of his misery Sunday night, so now assistant coaches are scrambling for jobs, probably taking time away for prep for this. Arizona is +7 in turnovers in Skelton’s three starts, with home side winning all three games. Cardinals lost last six road games after opening season with win in St Louis; they’re 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by Home teams are 6-3-1 vs. spread in NFC West divisional games, 3-2 if they’re favored. 49ers are 3-3 at home, with wins by 8-3-19 points. Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four contests.
Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11) - Rookie QB Tebow rallied Denver from a 17-0 halftime deficit to nip Texans 24-23 last week, ending their 5-game skid, but question lingers, how do you get shut out for a half by Houston? Broncos (+9.5) lost 35-14 in first meeting at San Diego six weeks ago, getting outrushed 147-63, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down. Underachieving Chargers got KO’d from playoff race last week, so full effort here is no guarantee, especially after dismal loss in Cincinnati last week. San Diego is just 2-5 on road, winning 36-14 at Indy, 29-23 at Houston- its not often an 8-7 team was underdog only once all season. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs. spread in divisional games, 3-0 as home dogs. Five of last six Charger games stayed under total.
Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9) - Winner gets NFC West title; Rams advance in case of a tie, thanks to 20-3 home win (+2) vs Seattle in Week 4; St Louis had 17-yard edge in field position in that game, as Seahawks went 3/out on half its 12 drives, but conservative Rams scored only 13 points on five red zone trips. Health of Seattle QB Hasselbeck is big here, as backup Whitehurst hasn’t shown much in limited action. Not only is Seattle 6-9, but all nine losses are by 15+ points- they’ve lost last three games and seven of last nine- they’re 4-3 at home though (lost three of last four). St Louis is 2-5 on road, 2-1 in last three; they’re 6-2 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-6 when allowing more. Last eight Seattle games went over total; three of last four Ram games stayed under. Well-coached Rams are 3-1 as a favorite this season.
