StatSystems Sports NFL Report, Sunday 1/2/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 1/2/11
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• SEASON ENDING DIVISION FINALES! •••
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Take a look up and down the NFL schedule this Sunday and what do you find; A division orgy! Curiously, for the first time in NFL history, all 16 games are division matchups. In an attempt to prevent teams from ‘laying down’ the final week of the season, the NFL brass went to the schedule maker and mandated all season ending contests be division confrontations. This unprecedented move appears to have worked as a good majority of games this weekend find teams with a plethora of playoff implications inside the matchups.
And because, for all intents and purposes, division games take on a double-importance both in the standings and in NFL tiebreakers, this week’s games certainly take on a whole new stratagem. That being the case, here are some notes of interest from our powerful database in games played in the past involving division pairings in regular season finales. Please note all results are Against The Spread (ATS) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.
• SIZE MATTERS
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--The pointspread is a string barometer when it comes to season ending division games. That’s because favorites of nine or more points are 20-12, while favorites of less than three points are 12-20-1... 666 or greater teams laying nine or more points are 17-5, while favorites of less then three points are only 6-14-1 when facing .500 or greater opponents.
• MARGIN CALL
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--Teams off ATS spread margins at opposite ends of the ladder have performed accordingly. Those entering off a spread loss of 25 or more points are 15-10-1, including 9-3 versus and opponent off an ATS win... On the flip side, those off a spread loss of 25 or more points are 7-13, including 2-9 versus a foe off a win.
• BAD DOGS
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--Simply put, there is no disguising bad teams in season ending division finales. Those who were dogs of nine or more points the previous week are 9-17 in these contests, including 3-11 when taking seven or more points this week... >Worse, put these seven-plus point dogs at home and they vanish into thin air, going 0-7.
• ONE AND DONE
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--Put a team in a season ending division finale off one win-exact and they tend to dissolve faster than a patty melt at an over-eaters luncheon. Teams in this role are 7-20 when playing off a win of 16 or more points, including 1-15 when favored. There you have it, a quick glimpse at some of the more intriguing situations surrounding this week’s season ending NFL card. Divvy them up and enjoy the feast.
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***** SUNDAY, JANUARY 2ND NFL INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• 2-MINUTE DRILL
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--Oakland SERIES: 4-0 L4 A... Visitor in Chiefs series 8-1... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen... 1-7 UNDER away vs div revenge
--KANSAS CITY 4-1 Game Sixteen... 6-2 H off SUATS win vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)... 0-11 HF’s off SU fav win (0-2 this year)... 1-8 H off BB non div (1-2 this year)... 2-6 off BB SUATS wins vs < .500 opp (1-1 this year)
--Miami SERIES: 3-0 L3 A... 4-0 A vs opp off 3+ SU wins... 6-1 vs .666 > div opp (1-1 this year)... 6-1 off SU fav non conf loss (1-0 this year)... SPARANO: 12-1 RD Game 4 > (3-1 this year)... 9-1 O/U Game Sixteen
--NEW ENGLAND 12-0 off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU losses (2-0 this year)... 8-0 off DD SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses... 12-1 H vs opp off SU fav loss (0-1 this year)... 16-3 off SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses... 9-2 Game Sixteen... 7-2 off div RG vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)
--Tennessee 1-4 Game Sixteen... 3-9 < .500 dogs w/rev vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 0-7 UNDER div dogs 4 > pts
--INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 3-1 L4/5-2 L7 H... 0-6 favs in LHG... 1-7 Game Sixteen... 3-16 vs < .500 div opp w/rev (0-2 this year) ... 0-4 UNDER div HF’s 5 >
--Jacksonville SERIES: 3-0 L3/1-3 L4 A... 7-1 A off SUATS loss vs div opp off SUATS loss... 0-8 vs opp off BB RG’s (0-1 this year)... 0-7 RF’s vs div opp off SU loss... 0-4 Game Sixteen
--HOUSTON 8-1 w/rev vs div opp off HG (1-0 this year)... 9-3 dogs off BB SU losses (1-1 this year)... KUBIAK: 12-1 < .500 H vs opp off fav role (1-1 this year)... 4-1 O/U Game Sixteen
--Pittsburgh SERIES: 5-2 L7 A... 5-1 SU Game Sixteen... 2-9 A vs div opp off DD SU loss w/rev... 2-7 RF’s > 3 pts (1-1 this year)
--CLEVELAND 8-2 w/rev vs .600 > div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)... 5-1 aft Ravens... 0-7 off BB SU losses vs opp off DD non div ATS H win... MANGINI: 10-1 off div & BB SU losses (2-1 this year)... 1-6 O/U Game Sixteen
--Cincinnati SERIES: 9-3 L12... 5-0 dogs off SU dog win... 1-7 dogs vs div opp off div w/rev... 1-5 off BB SUATS wins vs opp w/rev (0-1 this year)
--BALTIMORE 9-0 vs < .500 div opp off DD ATS win... 6-1 SU Game Sixteen... 6-2 favs vs opp off SU dog win (2-1 this year)... 0-10 w/rev off BB SUATS wins
--Minnesota SERIES: 7-2 L9/3-1 L4 A... 8-2 dogs 9 < pts 2nd BB RG’s (0-1 this year)... 1-9 dogs < 7 pts vs opp off BB SU wins (1-4 this year)... 2-8 Game Sixteen
--DETROIT 11-0 HF’s < 10 pts off BB SU wins... 9-0 div favs off BB SUATS wins... 1-6 off SU dog win vs conf opp (1-0 this year)... 1-6 HF’s vs .333 < opp... 7-1 O/U Game Sixteen
--NY Giants SERIES: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4 A... 5-1 Game Sixteen... COUGHLIN: 8-1 aft allowing 35 > pts vs < .500 opp
--WASHINGTON 3-1 Game Sixteen... 1-11 vs div opp who allowed 35 > pts LG... 2-13 < .500 vs .500 > div opp off SU loss... 2-8 div HD’s (1-1 this year)... SHANAHAN: 13-0 < .500 dog vs opp off SU loss (4-0 this year)
--Chicago SERIES: 1-4 L5... 5-1 O/U Game Sixteen... 1-5 UNDER L6 vs Packers
--GREEN BAY 15-1 SU Game Sixteen... 9-2 H off DD SU win... 1-6-2 H vs .700 > opp... MCCARTHY: 8-2 vs div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)
--Dallas SERIES: 4-0 L4... 1-6 Game Sixteen... 4-1 OVER dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s
--PHILADELPHIA 1-5 Game Sixteen... REID: 12-3 H vs opp off SU fav loss w/rev (1-1 this year)
--Buffalo SERIES: 4-0 L4 A... Visitor in Jets series 8-1... 16-5 aft Patriots... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen
--NY JETS 4-1 SU Game Sixteen... 1-11 .250 > favs off BB non div vs opp off SUATS loss (1-1 this year)
--Carolina 8-0 DD dogs w/rev... 10-1 w/rev off AFC vs div opp... 4-1 Game Sixteen... FOX: 10-3 dog off one loss exact (0-1 this year)... FOX: 0-12 vs .777 > opp (0-2 this year)
--ATLANTA SERIES: 3-1 L4/9-4 L13 H... 3-1 Game Sixteen... 1-4 UNDER off Monday night
--Tampa Bay 8-0 dogs off DD SUATS non div win (1-0 this year)... 0-4 off SU win vs opp off Monday night... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen
--NEW ORLEANS SERIES: 4-1 L5/1-6 L7 H... 0-5 SU Game Sixteen... 1-9 H off div vs div opp off SUATS win
--St. Louis 16-0 vs opp off 3+ SU losses, last by DD (1-0 this year)... 11-1 off SUATS win vs div opp off DD SU loss (1-0 this year)... 1-11 favs off BB HG’s vs < .500 opp... SPAGNUOLO: 8-2 A vs < .500 opp (4-1 this year)... 6-2 O/U Game Sixteen
--SEATTLE SERIES: 6-1 L7/3-0 L3 H... 15-4 off BB SU losses (2-1 this year)... 0-7 H off SU loss w/rev vs < .500 div opp... 1-3 SU Game Sixteen
--Arizona Visitor in 49ers series 10-1... 6-1 Game Sixteen... 0-4 L4 off SU win... 1-6 L7 road dog
--SAN FRANCISCO SERIES: 5-1 L6/1-4 L5 H... 8-1 favs < 10 pts vs .333 < opp off SU win... 4-1 SU Game Sixteen... 1-6 aft Rams
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• SITUATIONAL TEAM POWER TRENDS
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The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
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--CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 19.2, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 31.6, OPPONENT 12.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 24.6, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 21.2, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 30.9, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 24, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 30.9, OPPONENT 15 - (Rating = 3*)
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--DALLAS is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.2, OPPONENT 30.8 - (Rating = 7*)
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 6*)
--DENVER is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 30, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--NY JETS are 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was NY JETS 25.4, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--MIAMI is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 18.3, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 30.4, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.6, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 33.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 19.8, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 4*)
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*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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• #301 RAIDERS (7-8) @ #302 CHIEFS (10-5) - Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Oakland winning last three visits here; Raiders could become first NFL team ever to go 6-0 in division and still miss playoffs- they beat Chiefs 23-20 in OT in Week 9, in flagfest where there were 27 accepted penalties for 240 yards. Chiefs clinched division last week, have playoff game next week but are expected to play their regulars here. KC won five of last six games, is 7-0 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Oakland is 2-5 on road, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 25-1-8-32-7 points. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games, 4-3 if favored. Four of last five Raider games went over; three of last four KC games stayed under.
• #303 DOLPHINS (7-8) @ #304 PATRIOTS (13-2) - New England generally plays its guys no matter what, but cautioned advised, since they’re dead here if they decide to rest Brady (Welker tore knee up in similarly meaningless game LY). Dolphins are 6-1 on road, 1-7 at home; their only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore (+5); they’re 5-1 as road underdog. Fish lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-21-10 points. Patriots blocked FG for TD, ran kick back for TD, were +4 in turnovers and had defensive score in 41-14 rout of Dolphins (+1) in Miami back in Week 4. AFC East home teams are 2-8 vs. spread in divisional games this year, 1-5 if favored. Eight of last nine Patriot games went over total; six of last nine Miami games stayed under. Pats are +22 in turnovers the last seven games.
• #305 TITANS (6-9) @ #306 COLTS (9-6) - Indy clinches AFC South with win here, against team that lost seven of last eight games, amid reported locker room divide over QB/coach rift. Tennessee lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two years, 23-0/27-17; they lost last four road games by combined score of 116-56 after winning first three road games this season. Colts won last three games, scored 30+ points in last four behind QB Manning. Indy is 4-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 24-10-13-6-10 points (lost to Chargers/ Cowboys). Five of last six Indy games went over total, as did Titans’ last three games. AFC South home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games this season, 5-1 if favored.
• #307 JAGUARS (8-7) @ #308 TEXANS (5-10) - Jax needs win and Titan upset in Indy to claim AFC South title. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Jags losing three of last four visits here- they won first series meeting this year 31-24 (-1.5) at home, outrushing Texans 165-81, outgaining them by 96 yards in a game where they had 10-yard edge in average field position. Houston lost eight of last nine games after 4-2 start; they blew 17-0 halftime lead last week to QB making his second career start. Only team Texans held under 24 points all year was Tennessee when they started 3rd-string QB, who making first (and likely last) NFL start. Home teams are 8-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games, 3-1 as home dogs. Six of last eight Texan games went over total.
• #309 STEELERS (11-4) @ #310 BROWNS (5-10) - Pitt is 13-1 in last 14 series games, but did lose 13-6 here LY , ending streak of 8 straight wins on Lake Erie; Steelers need win here to wrap up AFC North title and first round bye. Pitt won 28-10 at home (-14) in first series meeting, Big Ben’s first game back from suspension- he averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt while Browns sacked Delhomme five times. Cleveland lost last three games by 7-2-10 points, scoring average of 11 peg (3 TDs on last 26 drives)- they’re 3-4 at home, with four of the seven decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Steelers won five of last six games, are 6-1 on road, but their last four road wins were all by 6 or less points- they’re 2-2 as road favorites. AFC North underdogs are 5-5 vs. spread, 2-2 at home.
• #311 BENGALS (4-11) @ #312 RAVENS (11-4) - Not many 4-11 clubs can boast of two two-game win streaks, but Cincy can; they allowed total of just 123 rushing yards in beating Browns/Chargers last two weeks, and Palmer averaged 9.1/12.6 ypa, doing better with Owens/Johnson not playing. Ravens (-2) lost 15-10 at Cincy in Week 2, as Flacco was 17-39 passing with four picks (-4 TO ratio), but they’ve won/covered last three games overall, scoring 28 ppg (8 TDs on last 30 drives). Only way this game matters is if Browns upset Steelers, then Ravens would be playing for division title and a bye. Baltimore is 3-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3-16-7-6 points (lost to Steelers at home). Bengals’ last three road games stayed under the total.
• #313 VIKINGS (6-9) @ #314 LIONS (5-10) - Minnesota travels on very short week (played in Philly Tuesday) to face Lion squad they beat 24-10 (-11) back in Week 3, one of only three Detroit non-covers this season. Vikings outrushed Lions 183-63 in sloppy game (both teams had 3 turnovers, Vikes had 12 penalties/100 yards). Detroit is 12-3 vs. spread this year, winning last three SU, after going 4-40 SU in previous 44 games. Minnesota is 16-1 in last 17 series games, winning 7 of last 8 here- they won 20-16/27-13 in last two visits here. Not sure of motivation for Minnesota after playing three primetime games in three different cities in last three weeks. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. Home teams are 6-4 vs. spread in NFC North divisional games, 4-2 as home dogs.
• #315 GIANTS (9-6) @ #316 REDSKINS (6-9) - Gutcheck time for Jersey squad that allowed 73 points in last 68:00, blowing 31-10 lead to Eagles, then getting waxed at Lambeau last week. Giants won five in row, eight of last nine series games, taking last four visits here by 6-7-16-33 points, but they’ve also turned ball over 41 times, six more than anyone else in NFL. Giants are 4-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites; they’re 8-0 when they give up 20 or less points. 1-6 when they give up more. Redskins snapped 4-game skid with OT win in Jacksonville last week; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. If Packers beat Bears (games are at same time), Big Blue is done. Five of last six Redskin games stayed under total. Underdogs are 7-3 vs. spread in NFC East divisional games this year.
• #317 BEARS (11-4) @ #318 PACKERS (9-6) - Green Bay needs win to clinch Wild Card; Bears clinched first round bye Tuesday, so this game is meaningless to them, other than being rivalry game. Packers (-3) lost 20-17 in Week 3 at Chicago, getting whistled for 18 penalties, 152 yards- they outgained Bears by 103 yards, still lost. Rodgers came back last week as Pack spanked Giants- GB is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 27-2-4-38-18-28 points. Bears are now 7-1 since their bye (only loss to 13-2 Patriots); they scored 78 points in last two games (8 TDs on last 24 drives). Average total in last four series games is 36. Last five Chicago games went over total, as have three of last four green Bay games. Pack wins this game, Giants/Bucs games become meaningless for them.
• #319 COWBOYS (5-10) @ #320 EAGLES (10-5) - Philly has playoff game next week, could rest injured guys here, against team they beat 30-27 three weeks ago (-4), outrushing Dallas 171-110, averaging 9.2 ypa. Eagle defense allowed 24+ points in each of last five games (17 TDs on last 55 drives). Philly is just 4-3 at home, with three of four wins by 10+ points. Cowboys are scoring 31.3 ppg since Garrett became HC, after scoring 20.1 when Phillips was in charge- not sure if Kitna is good to go here after getting banged up vs. Cardinals. If he can’t go, backup McGee makes first NFL start. He was pretty good in relief in close loss at Arizona last week. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this year, 5-2 on road. Last 12 Dallas games went over the total, as did nine of last 11 Philly games.
• #321 BILLS (4-11) @ #322 JETS (10-5) - Gang Green is pretty much locked into #6 seed here; how much will they play ailing players, since they have playoff game next week? Jets (-5) won 38-14 in Buffalo back in Week 4, running ball for 273 yards, outgaining Bills by 221 yards- they had 13-yard edge in field position, starting three of 13 drives in Buffalo territory. Bills are 4-3 in last seven games after 0-8 start- they covered five of last six true road games, and won three of last four visits here. Jets lost three of last four games, losing 38-34 in Chicago last week when Bears scored four TDs on drives of less than 50 yards, but at least they scored three TDs, after one TD in 31-drive slump. Seven of last nine Buffalo games stayed under total, but 11 of last 14 Jet games went over.
• #323 PANTHERS (2-13) @ #324 FALCONS (12-3) - Atlanta needs this game to clinch #1 seed in NFC after tough loss Monday; they whacked Carolina 31-10 (-7) three weeks ago, running ball for 212 yards, holding Panthers to 2.7 ypa. Falcons are 4-3 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 7 points. Panthers lost last two visits here, 45-28/28-20; they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17-24 points. Carolina played last Thursday, so they had four more days than Atlanta to prepare for this, but coaches are probably looking for new jobs too, since new regime will be coming in after season. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year; home favorites are 1-5. Last three Carolina games stayed under the total.
• #325 BUCCANEERS (9-6) @ #326 SAINTS (11-4) - Bucs can still make playoffs if they win and Packers/Giants lose; game doesn’t matter to Saints unless Carolina somehow upsets the Falcons. New Orleans (-5.5) crushed the Bucs 31-6 back in Week 6, outrushing Tampa 212-42, holding Bucs to 4.9 ypa. Saints had short week after Monday night win in rivalry game; they covered last three home games, winning by 10-15-18 points. Tampa is 2-3 in last five games, but none of the losses were by more than seven points; they’re 6-3 as an underdog this year, 6-0 on road, losing away games by 6-7 points- they’re 5-2 SU on road. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South games, 1-5 if favored. Last three Buccaneer games stayed under the total.
• #327 RAMS (7-8) @ #328 SEAHAWKS (6-9) - Winner gets NFC West title; Rams advance in case of a tie, thanks to 20-3 home win (+2) vs Seattle in Week 4; St Louis had 17-yard edge in field position in that game, as Seahawks went 3/out on half its 12 drives, but conservative Rams scored only 13 points on five red zone trips. Health of Seattle QB Hasselbeck is big here, as backup Whitehurst hasn’t shown much in limited action. Not only is Seattle 6-9, but all nine losses are by 15+ points- they’ve lost last three games and seven of last nine- they’re 4-3 at home though (lost three of last four). St Louis is 2-5 on road, 2-1 in last three; they’re 6-2 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-6 when allowing more. Last eight Seattle games went over total; three of last four Ram games stayed under. Well-coached Rams are 3-1 as a favorite this season.
• #329 CARDINALS (5-10) @ #330 49ERS (5-10) - 49ers (-1.5) won first meeting 27-6 on road, outrushing Arizona 261-13; game was actually on Monday Night Football, some fine scheduling there. Niners put Singletary out of his misery Sunday night, so now assistant coaches are scrambling for jobs, probably taking time away for prep for this. Arizona is +7 in turnovers in Skelton’s three starts, with home side winning all three games. Cardinals lost last six road games after opening season with win in St Louis; they’re 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by Home teams are 6-3-1 vs. spread in NFC West divisional games, 3-2 if they’re favored. 49ers are 3-3 at home, with wins by 8-3-19 points. Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four contests.
• #331 CHARGERS (8-7) @ #332 BRONCOS (4-11) - Rookie QB Tebow rallied Denver from a 17-0 halftime deficit to nip Texans 24-23 last week, ending their 5-game skid, but question lingers, how do you get shut out for a half by Houston? Broncos (+9.5) lost 35-14 in first meeting at San Diego six weeks ago, getting outrushed 147-63, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down. Underachieving Chargers got KO’d from playoff race last week, so full effort here is no guarantee, especially after dismal loss in Cincinnati last week. San Diego is just 2-5 on road, winning 36-14 at Indy, 29-23 at Houston- its not often an 8-7 team was underdog only once all season. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs. spread in divisional games, 3-0 as home dogs. Five of last six Charger games stayed under total.
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• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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Amazingly, the Seahawks could become only the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs having lost seven of their last 10 encounters. That’s remarkable when you consider their nine losses have been by 15 or more points, and that no previous playoff team has had more than six losses by 15-plus points. Like them or not, Seattle takes the field an 'AWESOME' 23-7-1 ATS off back-to-back losses, including 13-2-1, (86.7%) ATS at home. These 'Birds' from the North-West are also 17-6 SU and ATS in Last Home Games, including going a 'PERFECT' 7-0 ATS off a loss.
Furthermore, this series has been a nightmare for St Louis, as they are just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS the last eleven meetings, including 0-3 SU and ATS (outscored 98-19) the last three here. Yes, Louie may be 14-2 SU and 16-0 ATS in tussles against an opponent off three or more losses with the last by double-digits, but the bottom line is we simply can’t trust the young Rams in this pressure-packed situation in the role of road chalk. "Not with a head coach that stands 3-15 straight up in scuffles versus .400 or greater opposition!"
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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HC Bill Belichick can never be accused of talking a dive, not with his 8-2 SU/ATS log in LHG, along with his 12-4 ATS mark at home in the final-four skirmishes’ of the season versus a foe off a loss reminds us of that! However, the Dolphins are one of the few NFL-Outfits that ‘Billy has been unable to fry (12-9 SU and 11-10 ATS) on a regular basis, especially when the Fish are seeking revenge (2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS). Even in their MNF home loss to these ‘Pats back in September, Miami managed to win the ‘ITS’ battle by a considerable 135 yards. Despite setting a League record by winning five more games on the road (6-1) than at home (1-7), the Dolphins will be hitting the South Florida golf courses this postseason!
However, that won’t stop us from backing the road warriors who would be foolish to leave home without "Tuff Tony Sparano, not to mention our 'NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' which tells us to: PLAY ON - Any NFL Game Sixteen road underdog of 3.5 points or more with revenge versus a division opponent off a double-digit win. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 13-2, 86.7%.
Not only is the third-year head coach 15-8 SU and 17-6 ATS on the road, including 13-1 ATS as a dog from Game Four out, the visitor in his final four games of the season is 9-2 SU and a ‘PERFECT’ 11-0 ATS. “There is concern that the Fish may freeze in this colder-than normal northeast weather but Tonys’ road record leaves us little choice but to take the frigid plunge!”
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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The Ravens punched a playoff ticket with its win over the Browns last weekend and now need a victory or a tie along with a Pittsburgh loss to steal the AFC North. With the Bengals checking in at 4-11, the first part may actually be easier done than said. However, lets not forget that one of those wins came at the expense of the Ravens earlier this season and that Marvin Lewis’ troops are 9-4 SU and ATS in this series since 2004, including 4-2 SU and ATS on this field. Though the Ravens are a crowd-pleasing 5-0 SU and ATS in Last Home Games, they also provide us with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK' - 1-14 ATS (-13.4 units) with revenge off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
And despite going 3-1 SU in December, they lost the ‘ITS’ (In the Stats) battle on three of those occasions. As for the Bengals, the T.Ocho show has been temporarily suspended due to injury. But that didn’t stop Carson Palmer and company from lighting up the scoreboard for their highest total this season (34) in last week’s upset of the Chargers. "It’s doubtful that these ‘Cats will put up that many on the Ravens defense, but their 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record as an underdog, off a SU dog win suggests they’re worth more than a look!"
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Speaking of Head Coaches who we didn’t need to see in 2010, Mike Shanahan is certainly near the top of our list. Though he’s picked up a few more wins from last year’s 4-12 debacle, he’s turned the once proud Redskins franchise into a three-ring circus, equipped with a fat QB and a lazy lineman. Shanahan hasn’t been able to tame his troops all season and we don’t think he’ll be able to start this afternoon, especially considering the Giants are hanging on by a thread. Though they no longer control their playoff destiny, and have allowed 73 points in their last five quarters, the Redskins are one 'Gang that the G-Men will welcome with open arms. New York has owned the series since '06, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, including a 31-7 win less than a month ago.
Our ROCK~SOLID database thinks another blowout may be in store here in DC on Sunday, as Washington is just 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS versus a division opponent who allowed 35 or more points in their previous contest. The ‘Skins are also 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS when they own a losing record and are facing a .500 or greater division opponent off a loss. And while Shanahan hasn’t been the ringleader for those trends, he checks in 1-8 ATS at home off a SU dog win when taking on a divisional foe. He’s also just 2-11 ATS versus his division in the season’s final four games.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, on the other hand arrives with some "AMAZING' numbers. The sourpuss head coach is 24-8-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU dog win, including 9-1 ATS when he’s off back-to-back losses. Coughlin is also a determined 11-3 ATS in season-enders in his career. "Good numbers, indeed, but the kicker is his 13-3-1 ATS record (81.3%) against the NFC-East - when off a loss of 12 or more points, including 7-1 ATS when favored!"
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•••NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 17•••
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*** OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Raiders might have nothing to play for, but they’ll be out for blood against their division rivals. Oakland is unbeaten in division games this year, winning the teams’ Week 9 matchup in overtime thanks to a couple of timely big catches from Jacoby Ford. The Chiefs relied heavily on Thomas Jones in that game, rather the more explosive Jamaal Charles. But with the AFC West wrapped up and a first-round bye out of reach, they might use Charles sparingly. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 6-5 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Oakland (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--KANSAS CITY is 18-33 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 64-44 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after gaining 450+ total yards in last game over L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 19-36 ATS vs. good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 yards/carry since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-2 OVER against conference opponents this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND (-4.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: With a No. 1 playoff seed already wrapped up, and memories of Wes Welker’s Week 17 ACL tear of a year ago, the Patriots might go against the Brady way and rest their starters against Miami. The Fins have played the Pats close in the recent past. They were on the wrong end of a Week 4 blowout due to a special teams collapse, but split with New England in 2008 and ’09. Miami has also been phenomenal on the road this year, going 6-1 SU and ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New England is 5-6 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Miami (1-4 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS away vs. teams w/ comp. pct. of 61% or better. over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 14-3 ATS away after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 10-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs. opponent by 14+ points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5, O/U 48) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Indianapolis Colts clinch the AFC South with a win, so unlike last year they’ll be playing their starters in Week #17. The Colts offense is still shorthanded, but in better shape now that RB Joseph Addai has returned. The Titans hung tight in their last match-up, a 30-28 loss at Tennessee in Week 14. But with their pass defense problems, they are going to struggle to hold Peyton Manning in check. The Titans have lost seven of eight SU and six of eight ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Indianapolis is 5-6 ATS (8-3 SU) vs. Tennessee (3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--INDY is 39-18 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-32 ATS at home when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=130 rush yards/game over the L3 seasons.
--TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER vs. teams averaging >=375 yards/game this season.
--TENNESSEE is 11-2 UNDER away revenging close loss by 7 points or less to opp. since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON (-3, O/U 46) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jaguars are barely alive as they head to Houston for the regular season finale. They will have something to play for though, as they won’t know the Colts result and could win the AFC South with a win and an Indy loss. The Texans seem to have checked out for the year, dropping four straight and eight of nine SU, and four in a row and nine of 11 ATS, including a choke job against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last week. After six straight ATS wins, the Jags have dropped two in a row. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Houston is 6-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Jacksonville (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS at home revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better this season.
--HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-23 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 13-26 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** PITTSBURGH (-5.5, O/U 37.5) @ CLEVELAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Steelers will be going all out with a chance to clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye. The Steelers have dominated Cleveland in the Roethlisberger Era, winning 12 of 13 SU and going 8-4-1 ATS, including an easy 28-10 victory in Colt McCoy’s first career start back in October. However, the one slip up was December 2009 in Cleveland, when the double-digit underdog Browns stunned the Steelers with a 13-6 victory. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 5-6 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Pittsburgh (3-2 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 10-26 ATS vs. defenses allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 of last 4 games over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER after allowing 100 or less pass yards in last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 83-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS away in January games since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS away vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off 1 or more consecutive unders, a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games.
(29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE (-9.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bengals will continue to work in their young players as the Ravens work to stay in contention for a division title. The Bengals have looked impressive the past two weeks, turning to the ground game (which is how they made the playoffs last year) and using their young receivers. Cincy has actually beaten the Ravens in three straight, with the teams never combining for more than 31 points. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Baltimore is 3-8 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Cincinnati (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--BALTIMORE is 12-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 51-32 ATS as a home favorite since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 17-5 ATS at home vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 12-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 54-79 ATS versus division opponents since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 5-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ DETROIT (-3, O/U 42) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This could be the final farewell for Brett Favre (if healthy), as the Vikings visit a Lions team that is finishing strong. After back-to-back wins in Florida, Detroit has won three in a row SU and four straight ATS despite having their second- and third-string quarterbacks leading the way. The Vikings have been searching for an identity all season. If Adrian Peterson is healthy again, they might be able to ride him to success on offense. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Detroit is 2-7 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Minnesota (1-3 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 9-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.
--DETROIT is 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.
--DETROIT is 31-17 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-36 ATS away when playing vs. teams with a losing record since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 49-31 OVER away in the second half of the season since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 42-24 OVER away versus division opponents since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +17.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY GIANTS (-4, O/U 44.5) @ WASHINGTON ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Giants could still have slim playoff hopes alive as they visit Washington for their season finale. The Giants have been collapsing since an embarrassing Week 15 choke job against Philly: They’ve been outscored 73-24 over their last five quarters. The Redskins have played solid football since promoting QB Rex Grossman to the starting lineup, despite their QB’s spotty play. The Giants dominated in a 31-7 home win over Washington in Week 13. They’ve beaten the ‘Skins five in a row SU, going 4-0-1 ATS in those games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Washington is 2-9 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. NY Giants (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 7-21 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 169-135 UNDER in all lined games since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 131-99 UNDER against conference opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 37-14 UNDER away after failing to cover in 2 of last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 20-7 UNDER away vs. teams who give up 24+ pts/game since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 25-10 UNDER vs. defenses allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY (-10, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This rivalry game has key postseason implications. The Bears have a chance to wrap up a first-round bye, while the Packers are just trying to stay in contention. While Chicago is the NFC North division champs, it’s difficult to argue that they’ve outplayed the Packers this season. In the teams’ first meeting this year, Week 3 in Chicago, the Packers out-gained the Bears 316-199. But Chicago took home the win thanks to a Devin Hester punt return TD and a stunning 152 penalty yards by Green Bay. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 5-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Chicago (2-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS at home after a game w/ a TO margin of +3 or better since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 132-98 ATS in games played on a grass field since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 9-26 ATS away in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA (-3, O/U 43) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Cowboys finish out a disastrous year against a bitter rival in Philadelphia. The Cowboys could have third string QB Stephen McGee under center as second-stringer Jon Kitna is struggling with a hip injury. McGee looked solid in relief of Kitna last week. The Eagles will likely be playing for a win, as they have a chance to grab a first-round playoff bye. Dallas played them close in Week 14, losing 30-27 in Big D. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 5-7 ATS (5-7 SU) vs. Dallas (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 141-99 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER after a game where 50+ total points were scored this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** BUFFALO @ NY JETS (-1, O/U 40) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has much to play for in this one, as the Jets prepare for their Wild Card playoff game and the Bills are playing out the string. Jets coach Rex Ryan already announced that he’ll likely sit quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Bills have played hard all season, but their weakness is stopping the run. New York may still be able to move the ball with Shonn Greene. Series History – Last 5 seasons: NY Jets is 5-6 ATS (6-5 SU) vs. Buffalo (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NY JETS are 9-0 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--NY JETS are 40-19 UNDER after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--NY JETS are 17-5 UNDER at home vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-32 ATS away after covering in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 16-4 UNDER away revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 150 or less pass yards last game over L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** CAROLINA @ ATLANTA (-14, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Panthers have already clinched the NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick, while Atlanta tries to stay sharp for the upcoming postseason. The teams just met in Week 14 in Atlanta, with the Falcons cruising to a 31-10 victory. With a pitiful offense, Carolina has topped 20 points just once in the past just once in their past nine games. That’s a big reason they covered in just two of those games. The best they can hope for might be the Falcons resting some starters. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Atlanta is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Carolina (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS vs. teams allowing cmp. % of 61% or worse in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 17-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.
--CAROLINA is 23-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS off a road loss this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (7.5, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bucs are clinging to their playoff hopes as they visit New Orleans for the season finale. They were blown out by the Saints in their October meeting in Tampa, a 31-6 loss. But the Bucs haven’t been swept by the Saints since 2006, and Tampa beat the Saints in New Orleans, 20-17, in Week 16 of the 2009 season before the Saints started resting their regulars. Quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a career game, throwing for five TDs in a home win over Seattle. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New Orleans is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Tampa Bay (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NEW ORLEANS is 19-44 ATS at home versus division opponents since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS at home in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 43-68 ATS at home after the first month of the season since 1992.
--TAMPA is 7-0 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 13-3 UNDER away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--TAMPA is 50-24 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 41.5) @ SEATTLE ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Despite both teams having losing records, this is the Sunday Night game, a primetime battle for the playoffs. The winner captures the NFC West crown. The Rams cruised to a home victory over the Seahawks in Week 4, but Seattle is traditionally much tougher at home. The Seahawks are 3-0 (SU and ATS) at home against opponents who currently have losing records. They’ve beaten the Rams five straight times at home, but this time they’ll have to do it with back-up QB Charlie Whitehurst running the show. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Seattle is 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) vs. ST Louis (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season.
--SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER as an underdog this season.
--ST LOUIS is 3-15 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 26-43 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS away after gaining 75 or less rush yards in 2 straight since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) in the second half of the season.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO (-6, O/U 38.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: San Francisco enters their season finale as a bigger mess than usual. They fired head coach Mike Singletary after their Week 16 loss and are once again unsettled under center (Alex Smith is likely to get the call after Troy Smith’s Week 16 meltdown). Arizona has played well since rookie QB John Skelton took over under center, winning two of three both SU and ATS. San Fran did score an impressive road victory over the Cards in Week 12’s Monday nighter, pummeling then-Arizona starter Derek Anderson. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Francisco is 6-5 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Arizona (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SAN FRAN is 10-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 46-27 OVER in a home game where the total is 35.5-42 points since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 40-24 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS after a game with a TO margin of +2 or better over the L2 seasons.
--ARIZONA is 12-28 ATS in a road game where the total is 35.5-38 points since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 3-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** SAN DIEGO (-3, O/U 47) @ DENVER ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has anything to play for in this one, as the up-and-down Chargers blew their playoff chances in Cincinnati last week. Denver will continue to go with Tim Tebow under center, and the rookie delivered a very good performance against Houston last week. He’ll be going up against a much stronger D in the Chargers this time around. San Diego will have the Broncos out-gunned, but they’ve managed to lose games like this all season. They’re 5-5 SU against teams that currently have losing records. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 2-8 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. San Diego (0-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DENVER is 3-13 ATS after allowing 6+ yards/play in previous game over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 20-5 OVER at home after allowing 400+ total yards in last game since 1992.
--DENVER is 33-12 OVER after allowing 6.5+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play in 2nd half of year in L2 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-9 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 OVER away vs. teams allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
4* TAMPA BAY +7.5 - (87.5%)
4* CINCINNATI +9.5 - (86.7%)
4* BUFFALO +1 - (86.7%)
4* CAROLINA +14 - (82.9%)
4* ST LOUIS -3 - (82.9%)
3* NEW ENGLAND -4.5 - (78.9%)
3* DALLAS +3 - (78.9%)
3* TENNESSEE +9.5 - (78.4%)
3* CHICAGO +10 - (76.7%)
--PLAY ON - Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season.
(28-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (24-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average score in these games was: Team 25.1, Opponent 20.1 (Average point differential = +5.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (44-14).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (105-87).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(26-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-13 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.8, Opponent 21 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (44.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (47-30).
--PLAY ON - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 27.3, Opponent 16.9 (Average point differential = +10.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (70% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-13).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (73-49).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (CAROLINA) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (24-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average score in these games was: Team 22.5, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (47.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (45-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (94-79).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (24-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average score in these games was: Team 22.5, Opponent 18.4 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (47.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (45-26).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (94-79).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season.
(30-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (35-6 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.1
The average score in these games was: Team 27.6, Opponent 15.4 (Average point differential = +12.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (46.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (67-55).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the second half of the season.
(30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average score in these games was: Team 24.7, Opponent 23 (Average point differential = +1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (53-39).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (96-65).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 14 or more points.
(29-8 since 1983.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 21.5 (Average point differential = -2.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (47.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season.
(33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-25)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 20.7, Opponent 22.6 (Average point differential = -1.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (43.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* CHICAGO/GREEN BAY OVER 41.5 - (86.5%)
4* MINNESOTA/DETROIT OVER 42 - (83.9%)
4* BUFFALO/NY JETS UNDER 40 - (83.3%)
4* CAROLINA/ATLANTA UNDER 41 - (82.8%)
4* TENNESSEE/INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 48 - (81.2%)
3* OAKLAND/KANSAS CITY UNDER 43.5 - (78.0%)
3* JACKSONVILLE/HOUSTON UNDER 46 - (77.5%)
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (CHICAGO) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(32-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.5%, +26.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.6
The average score in these games was: Team 23.3, Opponent 24.5 (Total points scored = 47.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-30).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (98-79).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.
(26-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39
The average score in these games was: Team 22.7, Opponent 23.6 (Total points scored = 46.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (58.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (56-40).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 17.6, Opponent 15.9 (Total points scored = 33.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 14 (48.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (83-48).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams against the total (CAROLINA) - terrible passing team (<=150 PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games.
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.6
The average score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 18.9 (Total points scored = 33.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (53.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45
The average score in these games was: Team 21.1, Opponent 17.8 (Total points scored = 38.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (51.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 44.9
The average score in these games was: Team 21.1, Opponent 18.5 (Total points scored = 39.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 20 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (47-30).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season.
(31-9 since 1983.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 41.5
The average score in these games was: Team 18.5, Opponent 19.8 (Total points scored = 38.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (36.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
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•Thanks Stat/Systems. I have been capping for 4 yrs now and a friend from another forum showed me some of the info in your daily report and I knew I had to sign up. Great stuff. ~ Cody - Cowpens, SC
•I can't believe all of the things your Stat/Sheets track, plus it's all loaded on one page. To call it the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet is an understatement. Goodbye Gold Sheet, hello Stat/Systems Sports! ~ Jason - Beaverton, OR
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
4* NEW ENGLAND -2.5 - (86.2%)
4* PITTSBURGH -3 - (86.2%)
4* NEW ORLEANS -4 - (85.7%)
4* BALTIMORE -5.5 - (82.8%)
4* SEATTLE +1.5 - (81.2%)
4* DENVER +1.5 - (80.6%)
4* HOUSTON -1.5 - (80.0%)
3* TENNESSEE +5.5 - (79.4%)
3* KANSAS CITY -1.5 - (78.3%)
3* GREEN BAY -6 - (78.3%)
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(25-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.1, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (61-41).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (PITTSBURGH) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(25-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.1, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (61-41).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(24-4 since 1983.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 4.8 (Average first half point differential = +9.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (0-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team vs the 1rst half line (CINCINNATI) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (70-95 RY/game), after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.2, Opponent 9.3 (Average first half point differential = +5.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-25).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (SEATTLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 8.1 (Average first half point differential = +4.4)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-27).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (86-51).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.1, Opponent 9.5 (Average first half point differential = +1.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (JACKSONVILLE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.0%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.8, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (57-25).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11, Opponent 9.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-47).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (124-115).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (OAKLAND) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.2, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.2, Opponent 5.9 (Average first half point differential = +9.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
___________________________________________
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS NFL - Display the Highest Rated Active NFL - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
___________
5* ST LOUIS/SEATTLE UNDER 21 - (84.6%)
5* CINCINNATI/BALTIMORE UNDER 22.5 - (83.9%)
4* CHICAGO/GREEN BAY OVER 21 - (82.4%)
4* SAN DIEGO/DENVER OVER 23.5 - (82.4%)
4* MIAMI/NEW ENGLAND OVER 22 - (82.0%)
4* JACKSONVILLE/HOUSTON OVER 23 - (82.0%)
4* NY GIANTS/WASHINGTON OVER 22.5 - (82.0%)
4* OAKLAND/KANSAS CITY OVER 22 - (81.6%)
4* TENNESSEE/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 24 - (81.6%)
3* PITTSBURGH/CLEVELAND OVER 19 - (78.6%)
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%).
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.6, Opponent 7.4 (Total first half points scored = 16)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (CINCINNATI) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.
(26-5 since 1983.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.2, Opponent 10.1 (Total first half points scored = 18.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent off 3 or more consecutive overs.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.2, Opponent 13.1 (Total first half points scored = 27.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-12).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (84-62).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (DENVER) - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 13 (Total first half points scored = 26.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (39-23).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (48-50).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(41-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.0%, +31.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.4, Opponent 13.3 (Total first half points scored = 27.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-30).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-51).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (JACKSONVILLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(41-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.0%, +31.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.4, Opponent 13.3 (Total first half points scored = 27.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-30).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-51).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NY GIANTS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(41-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.0%, +31.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.4, Opponent 13.3 (Total first half points scored = 27.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-30).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-51).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (OAKLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(40-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +30.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13, Opponent 14.3 (Total first half points scored = 27.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (70-46).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TENNESSEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(40-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +30.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13, Opponent 14.3 (Total first half points scored = 27.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-24).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (70-46).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (PITTSBURGH) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 11.8 (Total first half points scored = 24.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
Back in the early 80's, Stan the Man helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent.
Located on the East Coast just a few miles from the University of Seton Hall, Stan the Man is tuned into the Pirates as well as the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stan gets into one of his capping zones!
Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, "They say that the Harder you Work, the Luckier you get" and Stan the Man is Living Proof! When you do business with Stan Szumera you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort, “Enjoy and the best of luck” –Stan!
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