Power Sweep
Jets/Patriots
Belichick is the 1st NFL HC with four 14 win seasons and NE was the only team to go 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) at home TY. NE only outgained foes by 13 ypg (15th) at home but led the NFL with +11 TO's (34-20 avg score). Vs winning tms (not incl Jets) NE went 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS being outgained by 15 ypg (10th) with an amazing +12 TO's (PIT #2, +5 TO's) with a 31-21 avg score. The HT is 4-0 SU/ATS in this series the L2Y. TY the Jets (-3) won the 1st gm 28-14 as Sanchez passed for 220 (70%) with a 3-0 ratio (TY's best). The Jets had a 196-80 yd edge in the 2H holding Brady to 69 yds (44%) with 2 int. In the rematch NE exploited a Jets D that had just lost FS Leonhard (shin) and Brady had the 12th 4-0 ratio gm of his career (326, 72%, outstanding 11.2 ypa). NE had a 405-301 yd edge holding Sanchez to 164 (52%) with 3 int. The Jets are now 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS on the road thanks to LW's win vs IND. They are also 2-3 SU/ATS vs winning foes (no NE) with a 7 ypg edge (-3 TO's) being outscored 23-21 ppg.
After having the most rush att's in '09 (607), NYJ trimmed them to 534 TY as they opened the playbook to take adv of Sanchez being in the system for the 2nd yr and the FA pickups. The result was a mixed bag as Sanchez hit 54% (6.7 ypa) with a 12-20 ratio LY vs 55% (6.5) with a 17-13 ratio TY. He has read D's better, but his progress was slowed by a shldr inj vs PIT. Tomlinson is an asset on 3rd Dn's and in blitz pickup with Greene failing to make an impact there. LY the Jets had the #31 pass attack (149 ypg) but had a decent improvement TY (22nd, 209 ypg) although they still haven't had a 1,000 yd rec S/'07. They have spread the ball around more as 4 players have 52 rec's. The Jets have had the same OL for 13 gms TY and they get RT Woody (knee) back vs the Colts. Ryan cut his teeth on D and after finishing 1st LY (+1 TO), they were 3rd (+9 TO's) TY. NYJ are all'g an impressive 91 ypg (3.6) rush TY. The muscle of the D is its LB unit with Scott setting the tone and Harris being a drastically underrated ILB. The Jets use a 3-man OLB rotation to stay fresh for pass rush sit's with Thomas, Pace and Taylor comb for 16.5 sks (20 ideal for OLB's in 3-4). LY the Jets were fearsome in pass D all'g 52% (5.4 ypa) with an outstanding 8-17 ratio but TY Revis hasn't been himself. They've all'd 51% (6.5) with a 24-12 ratio as offenses have more tape to study. NYJ have our #5 ST's unit with P Weatherford having a strong year (50% punts In20) and Smith (28.6) having a great year on KR's.
NE quickly adapted its offense after releasing Moss, going for a more diffused Saints style. Since the CLE loss, NE has outgained foes 403-347 with a 37-16 avg score thanks to a +23 TO margin. Brady hasn't had an int since 10/17 with 8 str gms of a QBR of 107 or more. NE is often criticized for lacking a run game but they've finished 13th or better in each of the L5Y (9th TY) without a feature back. Green-Ellis is NE's 1st 1,000 yd RB S/'04 (Corey Dillon) and is the power back while former Jet Woodhead is an ideal fit as the 3rd Dn back. NE's 2 rookie TE's, Hernandez and Gronkowski, comb for 87 rec (12.7) which was just about what Moss had LY (83, 15.2). Welker remains an elite slot WR, Branch fit right back in after being reacquired from SEA and Tate has been a decent deep threat in limited snaps (ST's). NE's OL is built for the scheme and is better than its parts all'g 1 sk for every 19.7 att. NE's #25 D had its worst finish S/'05 (26th) as it had one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL at the start of the yr and the DL has been decimated by inj's. The DL has been held together by one of the top 3 NT's in the NFL, Wilfork, and the solid play of Warren who has found a niche in NE's system. NE's pass rush is avg at best (16th) but 10 plyrs have 2 sks TY (1 sk every 17 att's). NE's #30 pass D is a mixed rating as foes are forced to pass more to keep up with Brady and they led the NFL with 25 int with a respectable 7.1 ypa. NE finished 10th in our ST's rankings TY thanks to their return units.
This team backed up HC Ryan's words LW that the Indy game was personal and it'll be tough to carry that emotion for a 2nd straight road game. While there certainly is no line value laying this price with the Pats we have to feel they have the edge after dropping their road opener to NY 28-14 this year. The edge goes to Brady seeing this defense for a 3rd time this year and the 405 yds they gained at home was the Jets 2nd highest total. NE was embarrassed in LY's home playoff game and can't see that happening for a 2nd straight season.
[FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND by 17 RATING: 3*[/FONT][/FONT]
Seahawks/Bears
CHI earned their 25th playoff berth in franchise history with their 3rd div title under Lovie Smith who was almost released at the end of '09. CHI's coaching staff adapted the playbooks to fit the strengths of their players TY though it did take longer with Martz on offense. CHI finished 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS at home TY and even with their blowout loss to NE omitted they have only outgained foes by 17 ypg (15th) with a +3 TO mark and 23-19 avg score. Vs winning tms TY CHI went 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS being outgained by an astounding 139 ypg (didn't win yardage battle in any gm) with a -1 TO mark being outscored by 23-17 on avg. CHI (-5') was upset by SEA in the 1st meeting, 23-20. SEA was coming off its bye which negated their travel issues. Both teams scored on quick 80 yd opening drives but SEA shutdown CHI's att's to run forcing 3 str 3&outs. CHI was put back into pass 1st mode and SEA pass rush was ruthless on the day (6 sks, 9 qbh). SEA had a 353-307 yd edge holding CHI to 0-12 on 3rd Dns. SEA is 1-6 SU/ATS in their other AG's TY being outgained by 93 ypg (29th) with -10 TO's and being outscored 31-16.
SEA cleaned the slate of the Holmgren era in the offssn and gave Pete Carroll full control of the roster. SEA is 31st in rush (89 ypg, 3.7) with six 100 yd rush gms TY. Omitting Lynch's amazing 67 yd TD run vs the Saints, SEA ran for just 84 more yds (3.5). The real culprit has been inj's on the OL for 10 diff combos with 3 gms being the longest a set has been together. This has led to allowing 1 sk for every 15.5 att's and placed a lot of pressure on an aging Hasselbeck who has been forced to press. In his 5 full gms vs winning foes he's avg'd 236 ypg (62%) with a 5-5 ratio (7.0 ypa). He's also working with a receiving unit minus his top 3 WR's from LY (187 rec, 11.6). Mike Williams is a great story as a comeback POY after getting a walk on tryout here. He is SEA's most consistent skill plyr when healthy with Obomanu being better served as a #4 WR. TE Carlson has been forced to blk more which is why his stats have dropped. SEA was 2nd in run D after 6 gms (78 ypg, 3.3) but losing DE Bryant (IR) and DT Cole (5 wks) has them all'g almost twice as much (155 ypg, 4.7) not incl LW. SEA's LB's have started all 16 together but the scheme doesn't fit them and they have struggled with the DL issues. SEA's #27 pass D is basically even with LY's with a 31-12 ratio despite a decent pass rush (1 every 15.8 att). FS Thomas has been solid as a rookie but Trufant (3 TD vs TB) and Milloy are not what they used to be. SEA does have an elite ST's unit headed up by Washington who has 3 KR TD's TY.
Despite adding Martz as OC CHI avg'd just 289 ypg (327 ypg LY) while their scoring stayed at 20 ppg for a 2nd season. While Jay Cutler threw for 392 fewer yds TY his ratio improved from 27-26 to 23-16 with his QBR improving from 76.8 to 86.3. Matt Forte topped the 1,000 yd mark (1069) with three 100+ gms and he improved from 3.5 to 4.5 ypc as the Bears won all 5 gms when he rushed for 92+. Forte also tied for the team lead with 51 rec (10.7). In OC Martz's 1st yr we expected to see a significant increase in the passing #'s but that didn't occur. CHI lacks a star WR but Johnny Knox (51 rec, 18.8) finally gave them a deep threat after LY's top WR avg'd only 13.3 ypc. Bennett and Hester comb for 1,022 (11.9) while 09's leading rec hybrid TE Greg Olson had 404 (9.9). To say the OL struggled is an understatement. They allowed a league high 56 sks incl 10 to the NYG. They shuffled the OL early in the ssn but this group did start the final 9 together and all'd 24 sks in that span. While the offense was shut out in terms of Pro Bowlers, the D had 3 players named. The Bears finished 4th in pts all'd and 9th in yds (#21 and #17 LY) as they held 8 opp's to under 310 yds and 3 tms under 187 yds. The DL was bolstered by the FA acquisition of Pro Bowler Peppers (8 sk) and while the tm doesn't blitz often to get sks they led the NFL in FF's (15) and all'd only 3.7 ypc. The LB's continue to be the heart and soul of the team with both Urlacher and Briggs earning post ssn honors. The Bears secondary was productive as they finished #3 with a defensive QBR of 74.4 and their 21 int were 5th in the NFL thanks to DC Rod Marinelli's streamlined Cover-2 system. CHI finished 4th in our ST's rankings due to elite coverage units (#3 PR's, #1 KR's) and Hester on PR's.
We'll play against SEA and we now have line value with their upset win LW. Teams are 1-10 ATS if they knocked off the SB Champ the next week and only 9-21 ATS if they all'd 21+ pts in a playoff win. Chicago's ball hawking secondary will cause havoc for Hasselbeck and the Bears offense, while in a rare role of large fav, will score enough to cover here.
[FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]FORECAST: CHICAGO by 21 RATING: 2*[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]
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Jets/Patriots
Belichick is the 1st NFL HC with four 14 win seasons and NE was the only team to go 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) at home TY. NE only outgained foes by 13 ypg (15th) at home but led the NFL with +11 TO's (34-20 avg score). Vs winning tms (not incl Jets) NE went 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS being outgained by 15 ypg (10th) with an amazing +12 TO's (PIT #2, +5 TO's) with a 31-21 avg score. The HT is 4-0 SU/ATS in this series the L2Y. TY the Jets (-3) won the 1st gm 28-14 as Sanchez passed for 220 (70%) with a 3-0 ratio (TY's best). The Jets had a 196-80 yd edge in the 2H holding Brady to 69 yds (44%) with 2 int. In the rematch NE exploited a Jets D that had just lost FS Leonhard (shin) and Brady had the 12th 4-0 ratio gm of his career (326, 72%, outstanding 11.2 ypa). NE had a 405-301 yd edge holding Sanchez to 164 (52%) with 3 int. The Jets are now 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS on the road thanks to LW's win vs IND. They are also 2-3 SU/ATS vs winning foes (no NE) with a 7 ypg edge (-3 TO's) being outscored 23-21 ppg.
After having the most rush att's in '09 (607), NYJ trimmed them to 534 TY as they opened the playbook to take adv of Sanchez being in the system for the 2nd yr and the FA pickups. The result was a mixed bag as Sanchez hit 54% (6.7 ypa) with a 12-20 ratio LY vs 55% (6.5) with a 17-13 ratio TY. He has read D's better, but his progress was slowed by a shldr inj vs PIT. Tomlinson is an asset on 3rd Dn's and in blitz pickup with Greene failing to make an impact there. LY the Jets had the #31 pass attack (149 ypg) but had a decent improvement TY (22nd, 209 ypg) although they still haven't had a 1,000 yd rec S/'07. They have spread the ball around more as 4 players have 52 rec's. The Jets have had the same OL for 13 gms TY and they get RT Woody (knee) back vs the Colts. Ryan cut his teeth on D and after finishing 1st LY (+1 TO), they were 3rd (+9 TO's) TY. NYJ are all'g an impressive 91 ypg (3.6) rush TY. The muscle of the D is its LB unit with Scott setting the tone and Harris being a drastically underrated ILB. The Jets use a 3-man OLB rotation to stay fresh for pass rush sit's with Thomas, Pace and Taylor comb for 16.5 sks (20 ideal for OLB's in 3-4). LY the Jets were fearsome in pass D all'g 52% (5.4 ypa) with an outstanding 8-17 ratio but TY Revis hasn't been himself. They've all'd 51% (6.5) with a 24-12 ratio as offenses have more tape to study. NYJ have our #5 ST's unit with P Weatherford having a strong year (50% punts In20) and Smith (28.6) having a great year on KR's.
NE quickly adapted its offense after releasing Moss, going for a more diffused Saints style. Since the CLE loss, NE has outgained foes 403-347 with a 37-16 avg score thanks to a +23 TO margin. Brady hasn't had an int since 10/17 with 8 str gms of a QBR of 107 or more. NE is often criticized for lacking a run game but they've finished 13th or better in each of the L5Y (9th TY) without a feature back. Green-Ellis is NE's 1st 1,000 yd RB S/'04 (Corey Dillon) and is the power back while former Jet Woodhead is an ideal fit as the 3rd Dn back. NE's 2 rookie TE's, Hernandez and Gronkowski, comb for 87 rec (12.7) which was just about what Moss had LY (83, 15.2). Welker remains an elite slot WR, Branch fit right back in after being reacquired from SEA and Tate has been a decent deep threat in limited snaps (ST's). NE's OL is built for the scheme and is better than its parts all'g 1 sk for every 19.7 att. NE's #25 D had its worst finish S/'05 (26th) as it had one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL at the start of the yr and the DL has been decimated by inj's. The DL has been held together by one of the top 3 NT's in the NFL, Wilfork, and the solid play of Warren who has found a niche in NE's system. NE's pass rush is avg at best (16th) but 10 plyrs have 2 sks TY (1 sk every 17 att's). NE's #30 pass D is a mixed rating as foes are forced to pass more to keep up with Brady and they led the NFL with 25 int with a respectable 7.1 ypa. NE finished 10th in our ST's rankings TY thanks to their return units.
This team backed up HC Ryan's words LW that the Indy game was personal and it'll be tough to carry that emotion for a 2nd straight road game. While there certainly is no line value laying this price with the Pats we have to feel they have the edge after dropping their road opener to NY 28-14 this year. The edge goes to Brady seeing this defense for a 3rd time this year and the 405 yds they gained at home was the Jets 2nd highest total. NE was embarrassed in LY's home playoff game and can't see that happening for a 2nd straight season.
[FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND by 17 RATING: 3*[/FONT][/FONT]
Seahawks/Bears
CHI earned their 25th playoff berth in franchise history with their 3rd div title under Lovie Smith who was almost released at the end of '09. CHI's coaching staff adapted the playbooks to fit the strengths of their players TY though it did take longer with Martz on offense. CHI finished 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS at home TY and even with their blowout loss to NE omitted they have only outgained foes by 17 ypg (15th) with a +3 TO mark and 23-19 avg score. Vs winning tms TY CHI went 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS being outgained by an astounding 139 ypg (didn't win yardage battle in any gm) with a -1 TO mark being outscored by 23-17 on avg. CHI (-5') was upset by SEA in the 1st meeting, 23-20. SEA was coming off its bye which negated their travel issues. Both teams scored on quick 80 yd opening drives but SEA shutdown CHI's att's to run forcing 3 str 3&outs. CHI was put back into pass 1st mode and SEA pass rush was ruthless on the day (6 sks, 9 qbh). SEA had a 353-307 yd edge holding CHI to 0-12 on 3rd Dns. SEA is 1-6 SU/ATS in their other AG's TY being outgained by 93 ypg (29th) with -10 TO's and being outscored 31-16.
SEA cleaned the slate of the Holmgren era in the offssn and gave Pete Carroll full control of the roster. SEA is 31st in rush (89 ypg, 3.7) with six 100 yd rush gms TY. Omitting Lynch's amazing 67 yd TD run vs the Saints, SEA ran for just 84 more yds (3.5). The real culprit has been inj's on the OL for 10 diff combos with 3 gms being the longest a set has been together. This has led to allowing 1 sk for every 15.5 att's and placed a lot of pressure on an aging Hasselbeck who has been forced to press. In his 5 full gms vs winning foes he's avg'd 236 ypg (62%) with a 5-5 ratio (7.0 ypa). He's also working with a receiving unit minus his top 3 WR's from LY (187 rec, 11.6). Mike Williams is a great story as a comeback POY after getting a walk on tryout here. He is SEA's most consistent skill plyr when healthy with Obomanu being better served as a #4 WR. TE Carlson has been forced to blk more which is why his stats have dropped. SEA was 2nd in run D after 6 gms (78 ypg, 3.3) but losing DE Bryant (IR) and DT Cole (5 wks) has them all'g almost twice as much (155 ypg, 4.7) not incl LW. SEA's LB's have started all 16 together but the scheme doesn't fit them and they have struggled with the DL issues. SEA's #27 pass D is basically even with LY's with a 31-12 ratio despite a decent pass rush (1 every 15.8 att). FS Thomas has been solid as a rookie but Trufant (3 TD vs TB) and Milloy are not what they used to be. SEA does have an elite ST's unit headed up by Washington who has 3 KR TD's TY.
Despite adding Martz as OC CHI avg'd just 289 ypg (327 ypg LY) while their scoring stayed at 20 ppg for a 2nd season. While Jay Cutler threw for 392 fewer yds TY his ratio improved from 27-26 to 23-16 with his QBR improving from 76.8 to 86.3. Matt Forte topped the 1,000 yd mark (1069) with three 100+ gms and he improved from 3.5 to 4.5 ypc as the Bears won all 5 gms when he rushed for 92+. Forte also tied for the team lead with 51 rec (10.7). In OC Martz's 1st yr we expected to see a significant increase in the passing #'s but that didn't occur. CHI lacks a star WR but Johnny Knox (51 rec, 18.8) finally gave them a deep threat after LY's top WR avg'd only 13.3 ypc. Bennett and Hester comb for 1,022 (11.9) while 09's leading rec hybrid TE Greg Olson had 404 (9.9). To say the OL struggled is an understatement. They allowed a league high 56 sks incl 10 to the NYG. They shuffled the OL early in the ssn but this group did start the final 9 together and all'd 24 sks in that span. While the offense was shut out in terms of Pro Bowlers, the D had 3 players named. The Bears finished 4th in pts all'd and 9th in yds (#21 and #17 LY) as they held 8 opp's to under 310 yds and 3 tms under 187 yds. The DL was bolstered by the FA acquisition of Pro Bowler Peppers (8 sk) and while the tm doesn't blitz often to get sks they led the NFL in FF's (15) and all'd only 3.7 ypc. The LB's continue to be the heart and soul of the team with both Urlacher and Briggs earning post ssn honors. The Bears secondary was productive as they finished #3 with a defensive QBR of 74.4 and their 21 int were 5th in the NFL thanks to DC Rod Marinelli's streamlined Cover-2 system. CHI finished 4th in our ST's rankings due to elite coverage units (#3 PR's, #1 KR's) and Hester on PR's.
We'll play against SEA and we now have line value with their upset win LW. Teams are 1-10 ATS if they knocked off the SB Champ the next week and only 9-21 ATS if they all'd 21+ pts in a playoff win. Chicago's ball hawking secondary will cause havoc for Hasselbeck and the Bears offense, while in a rare role of large fav, will score enough to cover here.
[FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]FORECAST: CHICAGO by 21 RATING: 2*[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica][FONT=Helvetica,Helvetica]
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