The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, January 11, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 79-37 run with all of our guaranteed selections and we were 24-14 in the NFL this year! Today we have isolated the TOTALS WINNER of the CHARGERS and STEELERS game and this selection can only be rated as our ULTIMATE EXPERTS AFC PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR! You can get this BIG TIME WINNER today for just $35 and you must win or you will not be charged! 1/11/2009
ULTIMATE EXPERTS AFC PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
OVER 37.5 San Diego and Pittsburgh 4:45 EST
Date: Sunday, January 11, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 79-37 run with all of our guaranteed selections and we were 24-14 in the NFL this year! Today we have isolated the TOTALS WINNER of the CHARGERS and STEELERS game and this selection can only be rated as our ULTIMATE EXPERTS AFC PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR! You can get this BIG TIME WINNER today for just $35 and you must win or you will not be charged! 1/11/2009
ULTIMATE EXPERTS AFC PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
OVER 37.5 San Diego and Pittsburgh 4:45 EST
Cajun-Sports Executive- Sunday
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 4/-102 Philadelphia Eagles Play Title: Cajuns NFL NFC "Insider" GOM 38-0-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It will be an old-fashioned NFC East gridiron battle on Sunday when the Giants host the Eagles at the Meadowlands with a spot in the NFC Championship Game at stake.
New York is the NFC's #1 seed but did drop three of their final games after an 11-1 start to the season. Philadelphia went into the Big Apple in must-win mode a few weeks ago and delivered one of their most impressive performances of the season in a 20-14 victory over the reigning world champions. Running back Brian Westbrook amassed 203 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns to pace the offense, while a determined Philadelphia defense limited the Giants to 211 total yards.
That victory was part of a 4-1 stretch to close out the regular season and helped launch the Eagles into the playoffs. Philly then continued its strong late-year run with a 26-14 triumph on the road over NFC North winner Minnesota in last Sunday's NFC Wild Card round.
The Eagles haven’t been much of a running team this year, but the club made a concerted effort to establish the ground game in last month's matchup with the Giants and received quite positive results. The Eagles put up 144 rushing yards in that victory, with Westbrook doing most of the damage with a career-high 33-carry day. Philadelphia likes to utilize its running backs as receivers as well, and both Westbrook and steady backup Correll Buckhalter are extremely proficient at catching the ball.
While Westbrook certainly added a late-season spark, the Eagles wouldn't be here if not for QB Donovan McNabb's superb play down the stretch. The veteran star threw for nine touchdowns and had only one interception over the final five regular-season games, then followed up with 300 yards on 23-of-34 passing in the Wild Card win. The Eagles ended the regular season ranked 6th in passing offense.
The Giants' defense is well-known for its ability to pressure the quarterback, but the unit failed to sack McNabb in either of the two previous meetings this year. Injuries have hindered New York's effectiveness in that area as of late, as end Justin Tuck, the team's best pass rusher, managed just a half-sack over the last four games and standout tackle Fred Robbins' production has been slowed by a jammed shoulder and fractures in each of his hands. New York comes in with the league's 8th-rated pass defense. New York yielded just 96 rushing yards per game during the regular season, good for 9th in the NFL, but Westbrook was one of three opposing RBs to run for over 100 yards on the Giants in December.
The Giants' offensive philosophy is to wear down the opposition with a punishing ground attack that produced an NFL-best 157 yards per game in the regular season and boasts two 1,000-yard rushers in Jacobs and backfield-mate Derrick Ward. Philadelphia had mixed results in its attempts to contain the Giants' potent running game earlier in the year. New York bullied the Eagles for 219 rushing yards in its victory in November, but mustered only 88 on the ground in last month's rematch. Philly did finish fourth in the league in rushing defense, with opponents averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.
With the season-ending suspension of the Giants WR Plaxico Burress in early December, the team has been able to get by due to the collective contributions of the rest of the receiving corps and sound decision-making from QB Eli Manning so far. The younger Manning brother directs an offense that committed a mere 13 turnovers this year, tied for the lowest total in the league, and cut his interceptions in half from the previous season.
Eli will have 2 things to worry about on Sunday – the often-tricky winter winds in Giants Stadium and a persistent Philadelphia pass rush that recorded 48 sacks entering the postseason. Asante Samuel, an offseason free-agent pickup from New England, has been a good fit for a defense that has surrendered the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. He returned an INT for a TD last week in Minnesota and is likely to play a big part in Philly’s defensive effort against New York.
The Eagles have proven already that they're capable of beating New York in its own house, and except for a hiccup at Washington a few weeks back, have played as well as any NFC contender over the last month. Philadelphia held NFL rushing champ Adrian Peterson to 83 yards last week and will get LE Victor Abiamiri back this week, which will help them defend Giants RB Jacobs. Abiamiri is the Eagles' version of Giants DE Justin Tuck. They play him at left end on first- and second downs, then move him inside to tackle on passing downs.
The Giants led the NFL in sacks last season with 53, but had only 42 this season. Even more telling, 30 of those came in the first half of the season and only 12 in the 2nd half. Again, they have failed to get one against McNabb and the Eagles in two meetings.
While New York has survived thus far without Plaxico, his absence is likely to be felt here. Burress has been very successful against the Eagles since joining the Giants in 2005. A downfield threat, he forced Philadelphia to keep a safety deep. Without him, the Eagles were able to play the safety closer to the line of scrimmage in the last game, which allowed Philly to hold New York's league-leading rushing game to 88 yards.
Looking at some number, the Eagles are a super 9-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) as a road underdog of 2+ points, while the underdog in this series is 8-0 ATS!
Underdogs at the right prices have been very tough on division opponents under the conditions described in one of our Playoff POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play ON a Playoff division underdog of 4-8 points not off a Wildcard SU win as an underdog/pick ‘em/favorite of less than 3 points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a Monday division road underdog SU win in its last game.
Since 1990, these teams are 13-0 ATS, while covering the spread by more than 13 points per game on average. The system was last active when these teams met in the 2006 playoffs. Then, the Eagles were favored and could not cover the spread in their win over the Giants. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and Philadelphia is the PLAY ON division dog.
Philly is the PLAY ON team for a couple of other POWER SYSTEMS with smaller samples, as Playoff underdogs off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win and foes of opponents off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win are 8-0 ATS going all the way back to 1977, and Playoff underdogs of less than 7 points/pick 'em in a game with a team off a Super Bowl SU win in its last Playoff game the previous season are 6-0 ATS since 1984, crushing the spread by 15 ppg on average!
In a final POWER SYSTEM note, New York is active for a situation that stipulates:
Play AGAINST a Semi-Final team (not a favorite of more than 6 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss in the last matchup off a BYE and ATS wins in its last 2 games.
Since 1980, these teams are a poor 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 13 ppg on average.
This game will probably will be played in near-freezing temperatures with wind gusts reaching 25 mph. In the December 14 meeting at cold and blustery Giants Stadium, DC Jim Johnson's Philly "D" slowed the Giant ground assault and watched Eli Manning struggle with the notorious Meadowlands winds. Meanwhile, Eagle QB Donovan McNabb's short, ball-control passing game was mostly unaffected by the weather conditions, while RB Brian Westbrook exploded for 133 YR and a pair of big-play TDs in a 20-14 Philly upset that was the pivot point in the Birds' late-season drive to the playoffs.
It's been in these frigid, breezy conditions when Eli (on the road all of the postseason LY) has suffered his most ignominious meltdowns. Don’t forget, the Giants won 4 playoff games last year, all away from New York. McNabb's tighter spirals and "dinks" are less likely to be impacted the weather here.
Of course, the reigning Super Bowl champions aren’t going down without a fight, so this one figures to be razor close, providing at least a spread win for the Eagles, if not the outright upset, which is what we’re looking for.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PHILADELPHIA 21 NEW YORK GIANTS 20
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 4:45 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/104 San Diego Chargers Play Title: Cajuns NFL AFC "Momentum Factor" 27-0-2 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Chargers look to keep their winning streak going, as they take their show on the road Sunday to the Steel City. San Diego surged into the playoffs with four straight wins, and then knocked off Indianapolis in a WildCard game last weekend. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh had a bye last weekend, awaiting the WildCard results to see who they would host this weekend.
Once again, the Chargers will not be at full strength, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson is considered doubtful and TE Antonio Gates is questionable. While “LT’s” injury is concerning, the performance that backup Darren Sproles turned in last Saturday has to alleviate the pain just a bit for the Chargers. The 5-foot-6 Sproles was the star of the game, amassing 328 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, including a game-winning 22-yard run in overtime.
Gates should be able to go here. The perennial Pro Bowler held the same status heading into the Indianapolis game, a contest in which he recorded a team-best eight receptions for 87 yards.
Last year, the Chargers were in even worse shape, as QB Philip Rivers was also barely able to walk, yet they beat the Colts in Indy and then nearly knocked off the Patriots at Foxboro in the AFC Title game, covering the spread in both games.
San Diego will need all the offensive help they can get against a Pittsburgh team that led the NFL in regular season total defense, scoring defense, and passing defense, finished second against the run and in sacks, and had three defenders named to the AFC Pro Bowl team.
The Chargers have won their only two postseason meetings with the Steelers all-time, with both of those games coming in Pittsburgh. The Bolts were 31-28 road winners in a 1982 AFC First-Round Playoff and stunned the Steelers, 17-13, on the road in the 1994 AFC Championship. These teams met a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers escaped with an odd 11-10 victory, failing to cover the spread. Even those Pittsburgh has won 2 of the last 3 games with San Diego, each of those victories were by LESS than 3 points.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers led the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating during the regular campaign, and then followed up with a solid showing in last week's win over the Colts. Rivers had arguably his worst game of the year against Pittsburgh in Week 11, throwing for just 164 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. He’s playing much better now than then, and we look for his numbers to improve here. As is customary for the Steelers, Pittsburgh applied a great deal of pressure to Rivers in the most recent meeting, but was able to come up with just two sacks on the day.
Were it not for the status of Tomlinson and Gates, the biggest injury story going into this week's game would involve Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. “Big Ben” was carted off the field in the second quarter of the team's win over the Browns in Week 17. It turned out that the former Super Bowl-winning QB had suffered only a mild concussion. Roethlisberger has been back at practice all week and will start on Sunday, barring anything unforeseen. "Big Ben" threw for 308 yards on 31-of-41 passing without a touchdown or turnover against the Chargers in Week 11, but was sacked four times due to a dreadful Steelers line that allowed 49 sacks on the year. The Steelers enter the playoffs seeking to re-establish a once-proud rushing attack that has been burdened by injuries this year.
The Chargers generated 14 fewer sacks and 15 fewer interceptions during the 2008 regular season than they did a year ago, also ranking 31st in the league in passing yards allowed, but come off a week in which they did a nice job against league MVP Peyton Manning and the Colts attack. Manning threw for 310 yards and a touchdown in the game, but was able to deliver just one red-zone touchdown on the night. What's more, San Diego did show the ability to pressure Roethlisberger back in Week 11, with end Jacques Cesaire breaking through for his only two sacks of the year and outside linebackers Shaun Phillips and Jyles Tucker combining for another 1.5 sacks.
Rarely does the performance of a punter warrant as much discussion as the work San Diego's Mike Scifres did last week. He was simply brilliant, punting to a 52.7 average and keeping field position in San Diego's favor with multiple kicks inside the 5-yard line. All six of Scifres' punts landed inside the 20-yard line. This figures to be a conservatively played game of field position, to he should once again be a vital part of the gameplan.
It’s much easier to play against a team with a key player out; however, there is rarely any line value in doing so, unless they are favored. The Cardinals showed they could play quite well on offense without WR Boldin on Saturday, and the Chargers have proven on multiple occasions that they are very feisty, even when not 100% healthy.
The numbers back us up here, as San Diego is:
11-0-1 ATS (+9.9 ppg) as an underdog of 4+ points, with 10 of the 11 spread wins coming on the road, including 2 in the playoffs last year;
11-0 ATS from December on under Norv Turner and not a road favorite of 5+ points. Turner also 6-0 ATS in 6 career games as a Playoff head coach.
Meanwhile, conference underdogs in San Diego’s playoff games are 8-0 ATS since 1994, and Pittsburgh has not enjoyed a home SU & ATS playoff victory in their last FIVE tries.
Semi-Final teams, on an extended winning streak and coming off a home Playoff victory like the Chargers, have been very formidable on the road. We have a Playoff POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Semi-Final road team (not an underdog of 11+ points) off a WildCard home SU win in its last game and 3 SU wins before that.
Under those simple conditions, teams are 7-0 ATS.
Teams that played well defensively but lost anyway in a previous meeting, have been very strong in Playoff rematches. San Diego also qualifies for this POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 14 points, allowing less than 20 points in the last matchup within the past 5 seasons (not in the last 3 regular season games) vs. an opponent not off a WildCard non-division home favorite SU & ATS win in its last game.
Since 1997, these teams are 12-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by more than 8 points per game on average.
Due to their home SU loss & ATS win in last year’s playoffs, the Steelers are also active for a POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a home favorite in its First Playoff Game off a WildCard/SemiFinal SU loss & ATS win allowing 11+ points in its last playoff game within the last 6 seasons vs. an opponent not seeking revenge for a playoff SU & ATS loss within the last 2 seasons.
Since 1986, these teams are 0-8-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
Pittsburgh wants to run the ball against San Diego Sunday and take the pressure off a quarterback who has been under the gun much of the season and is coming off his third concussion. But then again, the Steelers have not been able to run consistently all season, so why would they be able to start now? The Chargers will make it tough indeed, as they take the home team down to the final moments for at least a spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PITTSBURGH 21 SAN DIEGO 20
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Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 4/-102 Philadelphia Eagles Play Title: Cajuns NFL NFC "Insider" GOM 38-0-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It will be an old-fashioned NFC East gridiron battle on Sunday when the Giants host the Eagles at the Meadowlands with a spot in the NFC Championship Game at stake.
New York is the NFC's #1 seed but did drop three of their final games after an 11-1 start to the season. Philadelphia went into the Big Apple in must-win mode a few weeks ago and delivered one of their most impressive performances of the season in a 20-14 victory over the reigning world champions. Running back Brian Westbrook amassed 203 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns to pace the offense, while a determined Philadelphia defense limited the Giants to 211 total yards.
That victory was part of a 4-1 stretch to close out the regular season and helped launch the Eagles into the playoffs. Philly then continued its strong late-year run with a 26-14 triumph on the road over NFC North winner Minnesota in last Sunday's NFC Wild Card round.
The Eagles haven’t been much of a running team this year, but the club made a concerted effort to establish the ground game in last month's matchup with the Giants and received quite positive results. The Eagles put up 144 rushing yards in that victory, with Westbrook doing most of the damage with a career-high 33-carry day. Philadelphia likes to utilize its running backs as receivers as well, and both Westbrook and steady backup Correll Buckhalter are extremely proficient at catching the ball.
While Westbrook certainly added a late-season spark, the Eagles wouldn't be here if not for QB Donovan McNabb's superb play down the stretch. The veteran star threw for nine touchdowns and had only one interception over the final five regular-season games, then followed up with 300 yards on 23-of-34 passing in the Wild Card win. The Eagles ended the regular season ranked 6th in passing offense.
The Giants' defense is well-known for its ability to pressure the quarterback, but the unit failed to sack McNabb in either of the two previous meetings this year. Injuries have hindered New York's effectiveness in that area as of late, as end Justin Tuck, the team's best pass rusher, managed just a half-sack over the last four games and standout tackle Fred Robbins' production has been slowed by a jammed shoulder and fractures in each of his hands. New York comes in with the league's 8th-rated pass defense. New York yielded just 96 rushing yards per game during the regular season, good for 9th in the NFL, but Westbrook was one of three opposing RBs to run for over 100 yards on the Giants in December.
The Giants' offensive philosophy is to wear down the opposition with a punishing ground attack that produced an NFL-best 157 yards per game in the regular season and boasts two 1,000-yard rushers in Jacobs and backfield-mate Derrick Ward. Philadelphia had mixed results in its attempts to contain the Giants' potent running game earlier in the year. New York bullied the Eagles for 219 rushing yards in its victory in November, but mustered only 88 on the ground in last month's rematch. Philly did finish fourth in the league in rushing defense, with opponents averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.
With the season-ending suspension of the Giants WR Plaxico Burress in early December, the team has been able to get by due to the collective contributions of the rest of the receiving corps and sound decision-making from QB Eli Manning so far. The younger Manning brother directs an offense that committed a mere 13 turnovers this year, tied for the lowest total in the league, and cut his interceptions in half from the previous season.
Eli will have 2 things to worry about on Sunday – the often-tricky winter winds in Giants Stadium and a persistent Philadelphia pass rush that recorded 48 sacks entering the postseason. Asante Samuel, an offseason free-agent pickup from New England, has been a good fit for a defense that has surrendered the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. He returned an INT for a TD last week in Minnesota and is likely to play a big part in Philly’s defensive effort against New York.
The Eagles have proven already that they're capable of beating New York in its own house, and except for a hiccup at Washington a few weeks back, have played as well as any NFC contender over the last month. Philadelphia held NFL rushing champ Adrian Peterson to 83 yards last week and will get LE Victor Abiamiri back this week, which will help them defend Giants RB Jacobs. Abiamiri is the Eagles' version of Giants DE Justin Tuck. They play him at left end on first- and second downs, then move him inside to tackle on passing downs.
The Giants led the NFL in sacks last season with 53, but had only 42 this season. Even more telling, 30 of those came in the first half of the season and only 12 in the 2nd half. Again, they have failed to get one against McNabb and the Eagles in two meetings.
While New York has survived thus far without Plaxico, his absence is likely to be felt here. Burress has been very successful against the Eagles since joining the Giants in 2005. A downfield threat, he forced Philadelphia to keep a safety deep. Without him, the Eagles were able to play the safety closer to the line of scrimmage in the last game, which allowed Philly to hold New York's league-leading rushing game to 88 yards.
Looking at some number, the Eagles are a super 9-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) as a road underdog of 2+ points, while the underdog in this series is 8-0 ATS!
Underdogs at the right prices have been very tough on division opponents under the conditions described in one of our Playoff POWER SYSTEMS, which states:
Play ON a Playoff division underdog of 4-8 points not off a Wildcard SU win as an underdog/pick ‘em/favorite of less than 3 points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a Monday division road underdog SU win in its last game.
Since 1990, these teams are 13-0 ATS, while covering the spread by more than 13 points per game on average. The system was last active when these teams met in the 2006 playoffs. Then, the Eagles were favored and could not cover the spread in their win over the Giants. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and Philadelphia is the PLAY ON division dog.
Philly is the PLAY ON team for a couple of other POWER SYSTEMS with smaller samples, as Playoff underdogs off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win and foes of opponents off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win are 8-0 ATS going all the way back to 1977, and Playoff underdogs of less than 7 points/pick 'em in a game with a team off a Super Bowl SU win in its last Playoff game the previous season are 6-0 ATS since 1984, crushing the spread by 15 ppg on average!
In a final POWER SYSTEM note, New York is active for a situation that stipulates:
Play AGAINST a Semi-Final team (not a favorite of more than 6 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss in the last matchup off a BYE and ATS wins in its last 2 games.
Since 1980, these teams are a poor 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 13 ppg on average.
This game will probably will be played in near-freezing temperatures with wind gusts reaching 25 mph. In the December 14 meeting at cold and blustery Giants Stadium, DC Jim Johnson's Philly "D" slowed the Giant ground assault and watched Eli Manning struggle with the notorious Meadowlands winds. Meanwhile, Eagle QB Donovan McNabb's short, ball-control passing game was mostly unaffected by the weather conditions, while RB Brian Westbrook exploded for 133 YR and a pair of big-play TDs in a 20-14 Philly upset that was the pivot point in the Birds' late-season drive to the playoffs.
It's been in these frigid, breezy conditions when Eli (on the road all of the postseason LY) has suffered his most ignominious meltdowns. Don’t forget, the Giants won 4 playoff games last year, all away from New York. McNabb's tighter spirals and "dinks" are less likely to be impacted the weather here.
Of course, the reigning Super Bowl champions aren’t going down without a fight, so this one figures to be razor close, providing at least a spread win for the Eagles, if not the outright upset, which is what we’re looking for.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PHILADELPHIA 21 NEW YORK GIANTS 20
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 4:45 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/104 San Diego Chargers Play Title: Cajuns NFL AFC "Momentum Factor" 27-0-2 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Chargers look to keep their winning streak going, as they take their show on the road Sunday to the Steel City. San Diego surged into the playoffs with four straight wins, and then knocked off Indianapolis in a WildCard game last weekend. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh had a bye last weekend, awaiting the WildCard results to see who they would host this weekend.
Once again, the Chargers will not be at full strength, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson is considered doubtful and TE Antonio Gates is questionable. While “LT’s” injury is concerning, the performance that backup Darren Sproles turned in last Saturday has to alleviate the pain just a bit for the Chargers. The 5-foot-6 Sproles was the star of the game, amassing 328 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, including a game-winning 22-yard run in overtime.
Gates should be able to go here. The perennial Pro Bowler held the same status heading into the Indianapolis game, a contest in which he recorded a team-best eight receptions for 87 yards.
Last year, the Chargers were in even worse shape, as QB Philip Rivers was also barely able to walk, yet they beat the Colts in Indy and then nearly knocked off the Patriots at Foxboro in the AFC Title game, covering the spread in both games.
San Diego will need all the offensive help they can get against a Pittsburgh team that led the NFL in regular season total defense, scoring defense, and passing defense, finished second against the run and in sacks, and had three defenders named to the AFC Pro Bowl team.
The Chargers have won their only two postseason meetings with the Steelers all-time, with both of those games coming in Pittsburgh. The Bolts were 31-28 road winners in a 1982 AFC First-Round Playoff and stunned the Steelers, 17-13, on the road in the 1994 AFC Championship. These teams met a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers escaped with an odd 11-10 victory, failing to cover the spread. Even those Pittsburgh has won 2 of the last 3 games with San Diego, each of those victories were by LESS than 3 points.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers led the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating during the regular campaign, and then followed up with a solid showing in last week's win over the Colts. Rivers had arguably his worst game of the year against Pittsburgh in Week 11, throwing for just 164 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. He’s playing much better now than then, and we look for his numbers to improve here. As is customary for the Steelers, Pittsburgh applied a great deal of pressure to Rivers in the most recent meeting, but was able to come up with just two sacks on the day.
Were it not for the status of Tomlinson and Gates, the biggest injury story going into this week's game would involve Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. “Big Ben” was carted off the field in the second quarter of the team's win over the Browns in Week 17. It turned out that the former Super Bowl-winning QB had suffered only a mild concussion. Roethlisberger has been back at practice all week and will start on Sunday, barring anything unforeseen. "Big Ben" threw for 308 yards on 31-of-41 passing without a touchdown or turnover against the Chargers in Week 11, but was sacked four times due to a dreadful Steelers line that allowed 49 sacks on the year. The Steelers enter the playoffs seeking to re-establish a once-proud rushing attack that has been burdened by injuries this year.
The Chargers generated 14 fewer sacks and 15 fewer interceptions during the 2008 regular season than they did a year ago, also ranking 31st in the league in passing yards allowed, but come off a week in which they did a nice job against league MVP Peyton Manning and the Colts attack. Manning threw for 310 yards and a touchdown in the game, but was able to deliver just one red-zone touchdown on the night. What's more, San Diego did show the ability to pressure Roethlisberger back in Week 11, with end Jacques Cesaire breaking through for his only two sacks of the year and outside linebackers Shaun Phillips and Jyles Tucker combining for another 1.5 sacks.
Rarely does the performance of a punter warrant as much discussion as the work San Diego's Mike Scifres did last week. He was simply brilliant, punting to a 52.7 average and keeping field position in San Diego's favor with multiple kicks inside the 5-yard line. All six of Scifres' punts landed inside the 20-yard line. This figures to be a conservatively played game of field position, to he should once again be a vital part of the gameplan.
It’s much easier to play against a team with a key player out; however, there is rarely any line value in doing so, unless they are favored. The Cardinals showed they could play quite well on offense without WR Boldin on Saturday, and the Chargers have proven on multiple occasions that they are very feisty, even when not 100% healthy.
The numbers back us up here, as San Diego is:
11-0-1 ATS (+9.9 ppg) as an underdog of 4+ points, with 10 of the 11 spread wins coming on the road, including 2 in the playoffs last year;
11-0 ATS from December on under Norv Turner and not a road favorite of 5+ points. Turner also 6-0 ATS in 6 career games as a Playoff head coach.
Meanwhile, conference underdogs in San Diego’s playoff games are 8-0 ATS since 1994, and Pittsburgh has not enjoyed a home SU & ATS playoff victory in their last FIVE tries.
Semi-Final teams, on an extended winning streak and coming off a home Playoff victory like the Chargers, have been very formidable on the road. We have a Playoff POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Semi-Final road team (not an underdog of 11+ points) off a WildCard home SU win in its last game and 3 SU wins before that.
Under those simple conditions, teams are 7-0 ATS.
Teams that played well defensively but lost anyway in a previous meeting, have been very strong in Playoff rematches. San Diego also qualifies for this POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 14 points, allowing less than 20 points in the last matchup within the past 5 seasons (not in the last 3 regular season games) vs. an opponent not off a WildCard non-division home favorite SU & ATS win in its last game.
Since 1997, these teams are 12-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by more than 8 points per game on average.
Due to their home SU loss & ATS win in last year’s playoffs, the Steelers are also active for a POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play AGAINST a home favorite in its First Playoff Game off a WildCard/SemiFinal SU loss & ATS win allowing 11+ points in its last playoff game within the last 6 seasons vs. an opponent not seeking revenge for a playoff SU & ATS loss within the last 2 seasons.
Since 1986, these teams are 0-8-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
Pittsburgh wants to run the ball against San Diego Sunday and take the pressure off a quarterback who has been under the gun much of the season and is coming off his third concussion. But then again, the Steelers have not been able to run consistently all season, so why would they be able to start now? The Chargers will make it tough indeed, as they take the home team down to the final moments for at least a spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PITTSBURGH 21 SAN DIEGO 20
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Lenny Del Genio's NFL VEGAS ICON (#1 Playoff Play!)
Play on Philadelphia at 1:00 ET. The Giants, like the AFC's top seed Tennessee, were playing their best ball in October/November. Racing ahead in front of the pack early is what saved this team and allowed them to hold onto the home field advantage. Well that, and a miraculous comeback against Carolina that was made possible by a missed FG by John Kasay. Had it not been for that win, the defending Super Bowl Champs would be entering the postseason on a four-game losing streak. And home field advantage may not even matter here against the Eagles, who have won here in three of five visits during the Coughlin era, including a 20-14 win back on 12/7. It should be noted that the game was not nearly that close as NY's two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return as well as a meaningless late score when the Philadelphia defense was in prevent. The Giants offense was held to just 211 total yards that day and QB Eli Manning was truly wretched, throwing for just 66 yards. That was the game where it became apparant that the team missed embattled WR Plaxico Burress as New York would go on to score just 75 points in its final four games. Thirty-four of those came in the OT win over Carolina. The defense is also fading as for the first time since 2002 they have gone three straight games w/out a single takeaway. Coming into the season, we all wondered if the Giants pass rush would suffer with the personnel losses of Strahan and Umenyiora. Well, they failed to sack Eagles QB Donovan McNabb in either regular season meeting, including the 36-31 win in Philly. McNabb is playing much better now with 10 TDs vs. just two INT's in his L6 games. Eagles have traditionally been very good on the road under HC Reid (10-2 ATS as a dog) and have covered 11 of their last 15 games played away from home period. They have also covered six straight as a single digit dog of more than a field goal. Giants are a much better team in the role of hunter as opposed to the hunted. There could be a distraction with DC Steve Spagnuolo interviewing for other teams' head coaching vacancies. We said this last week, but Eagles DC Jim Johnson remains the best coordinator in football. Philadelphia is our NFL "VEGAS ICON" Play.
Good luck, Lenny
Play on Philadelphia at 1:00 ET. The Giants, like the AFC's top seed Tennessee, were playing their best ball in October/November. Racing ahead in front of the pack early is what saved this team and allowed them to hold onto the home field advantage. Well that, and a miraculous comeback against Carolina that was made possible by a missed FG by John Kasay. Had it not been for that win, the defending Super Bowl Champs would be entering the postseason on a four-game losing streak. And home field advantage may not even matter here against the Eagles, who have won here in three of five visits during the Coughlin era, including a 20-14 win back on 12/7. It should be noted that the game was not nearly that close as NY's two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return as well as a meaningless late score when the Philadelphia defense was in prevent. The Giants offense was held to just 211 total yards that day and QB Eli Manning was truly wretched, throwing for just 66 yards. That was the game where it became apparant that the team missed embattled WR Plaxico Burress as New York would go on to score just 75 points in its final four games. Thirty-four of those came in the OT win over Carolina. The defense is also fading as for the first time since 2002 they have gone three straight games w/out a single takeaway. Coming into the season, we all wondered if the Giants pass rush would suffer with the personnel losses of Strahan and Umenyiora. Well, they failed to sack Eagles QB Donovan McNabb in either regular season meeting, including the 36-31 win in Philly. McNabb is playing much better now with 10 TDs vs. just two INT's in his L6 games. Eagles have traditionally been very good on the road under HC Reid (10-2 ATS as a dog) and have covered 11 of their last 15 games played away from home period. They have also covered six straight as a single digit dog of more than a field goal. Giants are a much better team in the role of hunter as opposed to the hunted. There could be a distraction with DC Steve Spagnuolo interviewing for other teams' head coaching vacancies. We said this last week, but Eagles DC Jim Johnson remains the best coordinator in football. Philadelphia is our NFL "VEGAS ICON" Play.
Good luck, Lenny
vegas-runner | NFL Money Line
triple-dime bet306 NYG (-130)Sportsbetting.com vs 305 PHI
Analysis:
*** NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND 4* GAME of the MONTH ***
NY GIANTS +3 & STEELERS +1...(4*)...Teaser
Guys, we were looking at the NY GIANTS to be the Big Bet...but all week we were also looking to tie something up with the STEELERS because All of my work, numbers, and info gathered supports a ML WIN at Home for PITT...Now sure Both may go ahead and cover the number, but it was obvious that we now had the 2 teams that offered the MOST Value, together on a Teaser...
We are still working on a Possible Total...and also a Possible 2* on the NYG...But like I explain in my Forum Thread...I will not force a play just for the sake of having more Wagers in the Package...So if I am not able to Confirm the Straight Bets, we will look to Profit in the NFL from the 4* GOM...
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
double-dime bet835 Western Mich. 0.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 836 Central Mich.
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* WAGER **
vegas-runner | NBA Sides
double-dime bet812 SAC 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 811 DAL
Analysis: ** NBA 2* WAGER **
vegas-runner | NFL Side
double-dime bet306 NYG -4.0 (-105) Sportsbetting.com vs 305 PHI
Analysis: ** NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND 2* PLAY of the DAY ** (-105)
vegas-runner | CBB Total
double-dime bet844 Southern California / 843 UCLA Under 128.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* TOTAL ** (LATE STEAM)
triple-dime bet306 NYG (-130)Sportsbetting.com vs 305 PHI
Analysis:
*** NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND 4* GAME of the MONTH ***
NY GIANTS +3 & STEELERS +1...(4*)...Teaser
Guys, we were looking at the NY GIANTS to be the Big Bet...but all week we were also looking to tie something up with the STEELERS because All of my work, numbers, and info gathered supports a ML WIN at Home for PITT...Now sure Both may go ahead and cover the number, but it was obvious that we now had the 2 teams that offered the MOST Value, together on a Teaser...
We are still working on a Possible Total...and also a Possible 2* on the NYG...But like I explain in my Forum Thread...I will not force a play just for the sake of having more Wagers in the Package...So if I am not able to Confirm the Straight Bets, we will look to Profit in the NFL from the 4* GOM...
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
double-dime bet835 Western Mich. 0.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 836 Central Mich.
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* WAGER **
vegas-runner | NBA Sides
double-dime bet812 SAC 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 811 DAL
Analysis: ** NBA 2* WAGER **
vegas-runner | NFL Side
double-dime bet306 NYG -4.0 (-105) Sportsbetting.com vs 305 PHI
Analysis: ** NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND 2* PLAY of the DAY ** (-105)
vegas-runner | CBB Total
double-dime bet844 Southern California / 843 UCLA Under 128.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* TOTAL ** (LATE STEAM)
