Keith Fredrick
Ravens at Patriots
Pick: Patriots -3.5
Patriots are hearing about how they cannot win without Wes Welker, and this team thrives on being challenged, so I expect them to play very well here. That is the emotional factor, the rest of the play comes down to numbers. Start with 37-16 and 28-3, the scores of the last two Patriot games in the Wild Card round. Then throw in 35-7, 20-10, 31-14, 27-17, 59-0, 27-21, 26-10 - those being the scores of the last seven home games the Pats have played. Then add in that, except for a game against Cleveland, Baltimore is 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the road of late. Finally, Patriots fit a 71% playoff days rest system, one that also fits the Cardinals. Lay it.