Service Plays Sunday 09/27/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

San Francisco at Minnesota
The 49ers look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU win. San Francisco is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+7). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game 401-402: Tennessee at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 134.335; NY Jets 138.585
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Jacksonville at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 127.016; Houston 132.555
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.960; Philadelphia 133.882
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.898; Baltimore 139.891
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 14; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14); Under

Game 409-410: NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.927; Tampa Bay 128.311
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.956; Detroit 122.412
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6); Over

Game 413-414: Green Bay at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 135.140; St. Louis 119.875
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 132.389; Minnesota 136.854
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+7); Over

Game 417-418: Atlanta at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.808; New England 139.277
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 419-420: Chicago at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.334; Seattle 127.784
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1); Under

Game 421-422: New Orleans at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 143.556; Buffalo 131.117
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6); Over

Game 423-424: Miami at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.606; San Diego 138.222
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-5 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Cincinnati 131.147
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over

Game 437-428: Denver at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.656; Oakland 126.001
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1); Under

Game 429-430: Indianapolis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.188; Arizona 137.143
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 3

Sunday, September 27

TENNESSEE (0 - 2) at NY JETS (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at DETROIT (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 45-72 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (2 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-50 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 89-118 ATS (-40.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (2 - 0) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 3

Sunday, 9/27/2009

TENNESSEE at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-7 ATS off SU division loss as home favorite
NY JETS: 7-0 Under after allowing 9pts or less BB games

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 2-12 ATS on grass field
HOUSTON: 11-2 Over vs. division

KANSAS CITY at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-6 ATS off division loss
PHILADELPHIA: 8-0 ATS off home loss by 21+ points

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 0-4 ATS as double digit underdog
BALTIMORE: 8-1 ATS as favorite

NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 16-3 ATS in road games
TAMPA BAY: 28-12 Under vs. NFC East

WASHINGTON at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 7-0 Under as a favorite
DETROIT: 1-8 ATS as home underdog

GREEN BAY at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Over on turf
ST LOUIS: 1-9 ATS in September

SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-16 ATS as an underdog
MINNESOTA: 21-9 Under off 2 game road trip

ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 0-6 ATS off BB wins
NEW ENGLAND: 11-3 Over off road game

CHICAGO at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO: 3-11 ATS off SU win
SEATTLE: 9-2 ATS as home favorite

NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO, 4:05 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS as favorite
BUFFALO: 5-1 Under after scoring 30+ points

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MIAMI: 6-0 ATS Away vs. conference
SAN DIEGO: 8-1 Over in September

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI, 4:15 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 28-7 Under Away off SU loss
CINCINNATI: 8-21 ATS at home in September

DENVER at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 0-8 ATS off home win
OAKLAND: 7-2 Over in September

INDIANAPOLIS at ARIZONA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
INDIANAPOLIS: n/a
ARIZONA: 6-0 Over off SU dog win

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 3

Trend Report

Sunday, September 27

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New England is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MINNESOTA
San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NY JETS
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games
NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. SEATTLE
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. BUFFALO
New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. ARIZONA
Indianapolis is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges NFL Sunday
15-12 NFL which is much better than his college picks to date.

NFL

Green Bay -6.5 vs St. Louis
Tennessee +2 vs NY Jets
Houston -4 vs Jacksonville
Atlanta +4 vs New England
Houston/Jacksonville Over 46.5
Washington/Detroit Under 38.5
Buffalo/New Orleans Over 52.5
Denver/Oakland Under 35.5
Atlanta/New England Over 44.5
Dallas/Carolina Over 46

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SIRDUKESPORTS Private Players Club

9/27/2009 NFL 401 Tennessee Titans +3 7* Private Players Club

 

[SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6]

al demarco radio picks

bears
titans
cards

 

[boogiedownbronx]

FAIR WAY JAY AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

7 Units CINN BENGALS


PD FOR BY YOUR'S TRULY

 

[DonWallace]

Don Wallace Sports

Cleveland +14
San Francisco +7
Tennessee +3
Carolina +10

 

[DonWallace]

Cleveland +14
San Francisco +7
Tennessee +3
Carolina +10

Tampa Bay +7

 

[Twisted]

Langs Fades Comcast Philly picks

Penn ST -10

KC over 41
Titans+2.5
Vikes -7
Bills+6 2 for the $ play

 

[STACKSONDECK]

dover picks


packers -6 3 units
eagles - 9 2 units
sf +7 1 unit


ytd 3-3 minus 1 unit

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

WUNDERDOG
Complimentary Picks and Analysis
Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 9/27 1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cleveland +13.5 (-110)

These two teams have opened the season heading in opposite directions and it's not much of a surprise. The Ravens stand at 2-0 and atop ESPN's power rankings while the Browns come in at 0-2 near the bottom. I can hear the general betting public now, "How will the Browns even score a point in this game?" Over 70% of the public has lined up behind the huge favorite here. Not so fast my friend. This is a sandwich game for the Ravens. They went out to the West Coast and beat the Chargers last week and on deck for them are the New Endgland Patriots. It would not be a surpprise to see the Ravens, fat and happy, unfocused for this one. I mean how can they get up for a game vs. the Browns? Cleveland, meanwhile, has to be feeling a sense of urgency coming into this game. Their season is basically on the line as an 0-3 start would be devastating. Teams in this spot have been mighty potent in the NFL and as bad as they look, they come out with their best game after a poor first two weeks forthe very reason stated above - their season is on the line. Teams that have lost straight up and ATS in both week one and week two, have come back in week three with their best effort, hitting at a 68% clip over the past five years. The worse the game looks, the better the results as these same teams, when posted as an underdog of 12 or more, have been a perfect 8-0 in recent years! There is no doubt that the Ravens are far ahead of the Browns on both sides of the ball, so I won't try to argue otherwise. But betting the NFL based on stats will lead you to the poorhouse. Don't follow the sheep. The Browns will bring whatever they have here and history has shown that's enough to get the cover.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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#8 > #3



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Indian Cowboy
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6 unit over 47.5 carolina panthers
4 unit Saints over 52
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers:

NFL 20* Big Ticket: Washington -6.5 (411)

NFL Tampa Bay Over 44 -110 (410)
NFL New England Over 47 -110 (418)
NFL Arizona -2.5 (430)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

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The research I did on my NFL methods this summer suggested that I need to be very strict early in the season, as the last few years I've found myself down early in the year and then had to fight back to get to even in the NFL. I do not have any NFL Best Bets for this week, as nothing quite made the cut, but the 3 games below are positive return on investment games and are considered Strong Opinions, which do have a profitable record over the years. The number of Best Bets will pick up when my math model kicks in week 5, but I may have a few next week as well. I know you're all anxious to have more Best Bets, but my goal is to give us all the best chance at a winning Best Bet record for the season. With that said, I do like the games below but didn't have quite enough to make them Best Bets.

Strong Opinion
NEW ENGLAND (-4.0) 28 Atlanta 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
There's a lot of talk about how Tom Brady isn't himself and that there is something wrong with the Patriots' offense. Perhaps last week's 4.5 yards per play performance at New York has more to do with the Jets' defense than the Patriots' offense. New York also shut down a very good Houston offense in week 1, holding the Texans to just 3.8 yppl on the road. In case you didn't notice, the Texans erupted for 6.4 yppl and 34 points last week against a good Titans' defense. The Patriots averaged a respectable 5.7 yppl in week 1 against a better than average Bills' defense, so I'm not so sure that much is wrong with New England's offense, which I rate as 7th best in the NFL Atlanta was a slightly worse than average defensive team last season and I still rate the Falcons' stop unit as slightly worse than average after allowing 440 yards at 6.6 yppl to Carolina last week. Atlanta's offense hasn't been as good so far this season as it was a year ago (just 5.2 yppl), but Matt Ryan is certainly a better than average quarterback and the rushing attack should improve upon the 3.7 ypr of the first two games. New England's defense has actually played better than I expected so far, as the Pats have given up a slightly better than average 5.3 yppl to the Bills and Jets, who I calculate would averaged 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Atlanta may be 2-0, but they've been out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl and have taken advantage of their +4 in turnover margin. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been out-gained just 5.1 yppl to 5.2 yppl against a tougher schedule than Atlanta has faced (I rate Miami as the 6th worst team in the league and Carolina is only slightly better than average). The Patriots would have been favored by about 7 points if this game had been played before the misleading results of the last two weeks and using this year's games only results in a prediction of New England by 5 1/2 points (my updated ratings also favor NE by 5 1/2 points). The Patriots haven't been playing up to their own standards and last week's loss will have them highly motivated to play well this week. In fact, the Patriots are 18-1 straight up and 16-3 ATS following a loss since the 2003 season, including 13-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 6 points. One thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is the questionable status of Wes Welker, who missed last week's loss to the Jets. Julian Edelmen took Welker's spot in the slot last week and had 8 catches for 98 yards, but he was thrown to 16 times for a 6.1 yards per attempt average. Welker averaged only 5.8 ypa on 16 passes thrown to him in week 1, but he averaged 7.8 ypa last year and 8.1 ypa in 2007 when Brady was quarterbacking. I'll consider New England a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Patriots in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.25 odds or better.

Strong Opinions (Buffalo +6 and Under 52)
BUFFALO 23 New Orleans (-6.0) 24
01:05 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
New Orleans looks like they can't be stopped on offense, scoring 45 points on 515 yards at 7.5 yards per play in week 1 against Detroit's bad defense and then racking up 48 points on 421 yards at 6.5 yppl against the Eagles' good stop unit. However, it's tough to play that well offensively 3 games in a row, especially away from home. In fact, since 1980 there have been 11 teams that have played away from home after scoring more than 42 points in each of their previous two games and those teams are just 3-8 straight up and 1-8-2 ATS, so don't be too afraid of betting against the Saints and their great offense. After all, the Saints had the best offense in the league last season and were just 8-8. New Orleans is just mediocre defensively and Buffalo's new offense looks pretty good with Fred Jackson at running back and Trent Edwards starting to throw the ball downfield to Terrell Owens. With the suspension to Marshawn Lynch, Jackson finally gets to prove that he's the more valuable back. Jackson has 220 rushing yards at 5.1 ypr this season and his career average of 4.7 ypr on 231 carries is very impressive. Jackson is also a very good receiving back, with 105 yards on 15 passes intended for him (7.0 ypa is very good for a running back and he also averaged 7.0 ypa on 45 pass attempts last season). With Jackson in place of Lynch and Owens producing at a good level the Bills' offense has averaged 6.2 yppl in two games against a mediocre Patriots' defense and a bad Buccaneers' defense. Even after compensating for defenses faced the Bills still rate good offensively, although I rate them as just average in my ratings for now since I had them below average heading into the season.

There is nothing below average about the Bills' defense, which has been great against the run and about average against the pass so far this year (after compensating for schedule). New Orleans will move the ball but the Bills should also be effective enough offensively to compete in this game. My ratings favor the Saints by only 3 points in this game and New Orleans applies to a negative 28-74-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent high scoring games. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

This game also applies to a 40-10 UNDER situation and my math projects just 49 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 49 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI 18 Pittsburgh (-4.0) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
I considered the Bengals the NFL's most underrated team entering the season and played them in week 1, a game in which they lost to Denver on a fluke 87 yard tipped touchdown pass in the final seconds. Prior to that play the Bengals had out-gained the Broncos 4.9 yppl to 4.2 yppl (I actually took that fluke play out of my stats because it's not a predictive play). Last week the Bengals lived up to my expectations with an upset win at Green Bay in a game in which they out-played the Packers 5.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl. The Bengals had a good defense last year before injuries hit and that young unit is playing very good this season and ranks at 7th in my defensive ratings heading into this game. Cincinnati also has a capable offense with a decent running back in Cedric Benson (4.3 ypr) and a better than average pass attack with Carson Palmer hooking up with a rejuvenated Chad Ochocinco. The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged 5.2 yppl and allowed 5.2 yppl in splitting close game with the Titans and Bears and I rate the Steelers as the 9th best team in the league, which is where I had them ranked prior to the season. We have an underrated home underdog against an overrated road favorite and my ratings pick this game even. I'd only favor Pittsburgh by 4 points at Cincinnati even if I used the Steelers' ratings from the end of last season and it's pretty clear that the Steelers aren't as good defensively as they were last season, especially without star safety Troy Polamalu. The sharp players that bet the line down from +6 points to +4 points knew what they were doing but there is still some value on the side of the Bengals and I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +3 1/2 or more and I'd take the Bengals in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +6 or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Colin Cowherd

Arizona (wins 36-24)

Cincinnati (wins 24-20)

New England (wins 30-21)

Dallas (wins 30-17)

Tennessee (wins 27-20)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[core42]

Allen Eastman (ACE-ACE)

$2000.00 Take #427 Denver (-1) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Not many people had Denver going 3-0 at the start of the year but I think that they are going to win this weekend and that’s exactly where they will be. Oakland has been one of the worst bets in the NFL over the last six or seven years. They simply are not a good organization and without a good quarterback I don’t see them winning many games. The Broncos have owned this series lately, going 5-1 ATS against the hated Raiders. The Road team is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. I think this game is going to be a blowout and I think that it will be all Broncos.

$200.00 Take #415 Minnesota (-6.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Minnesota is looking to go 3-0 this week and will get a shot at a 2-0 San Francisco team. This is San Fran’s second road game and as well as they have played I don’t think that they will have enough offense to keep up with the Vikings. I think that Minnesota’s front four will shut down the running game and the Vikings will make Shaun Hill beat them. That could lead to a blowout.

$800.00 Take #421 New Orleans (-6) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Drew Brees has been the best quarterback in football in the last two weeks and after a pretty easy win at Philadelphia I think that they will be up to the challenge of beating the Bills. New Orleans simply has too much offense. Buffalo jumped out to a big lead against Tampa Bay but then leveled off. I don’t think they will be able to hold up against the Saints offense and that this one should be another blowout.

$700.00 Take #412 Detroit (+6.5) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
This could be the week that Detroit gets a win! The Lions played really well in the first half against Minnesota while taking a 10-0 lead. They did fade but Washington doesn’t have nearly the same weapons as the Vikings. Washington just barely beat one of the worst teams in the NFL last week in St. Louis. And that game was at home. Washington is just 3-13-3 ATS against a team with a losing record. I think that Detroit could win this one outright. But even if they don’t I think that the points will be good.

$600.00 Take #417 Atlanta (+4) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
This is simply not the same Patriots team that we’re used to seeing and I wonder if the wrong team is favored here. The Pats are a miracle finish away from 0-2 while Atlanta has dominated a pair of 2008 playoff teams so far this year. The Patriots are just 2-9 ATS at home and I don’t know if they can stop Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and the rest of the Falcons offense. I think there will be a lot of points in this one but I also think that the Falcons will find a way to make these points stand up.

$300.00 Take #425 Pittsburgh (-4) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Pittsburgh has been the “big brother” in this series for awhile and they should dominate the Bengals yet again. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS after a loss and they actually are just a couple mistakes last week in Chicago from being 2-0. Cincinnati is just the opposite. They are 3-10 ATS after a win and they benefited from a bunch of miscues in Green Bay last week. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to Cincinnati and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings overall. The road team in this series is also 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

$2100.00 Take #404 Houston (-4) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
This is my Game of the Week. I am high on the Texans this year and I think that they will have a lot of momentum after their big win on the road against a good Tennessee team. Jacksonville’s secondary wasn’t even close to stopping Arizona last week and I think that Houston’s passing game will be just as potent. Jacksonville is just really unsettled at a lot of positions on offense and defense and are in a rebuilding year. They are starting a bunch of rookies and they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Houston is 7-2 ATS and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home against the Jags.

3 team 10 point Teaser
Atl+14.5
Den+9
Det +6.5.............................................$300


Added play because its a hilton Play
Chi -2..................................................$300

I have a partner in this hilton contest ...the one that give me the 99 system...we agree on 4 picks...but my Hou game did not get into the hilton The chi pick did....this is what He said that put me us into it


I quote HC Mora of seattle. This is the worst I've ever expierenced in 26 years in football explaining to the press about 12 starters that are hurt and probably not going to play.

QB--------hasslebeck, he may play--------it might be good if he does, the bears d will make him wish he didn't

2 starting cornerbacks

2 backup cornerbacks

1 pro bowl linebacker to return after knee surgery 5 weeks ago----yeah he'll be effective

Lofa Tatupa defensive out

Sean Locklear defense out

I think that seattle winning against the Rams in opening week 1 and the Bears playing against the packers and the Steelers the numbers are skewed in favor of seattle.

I cannot see how with the list of injured guys, how Seattle is going to compete

they have the number 24 ranked defense against the run.



I will posted all the hilton play on sat/day ...Still................Still.....I think Hou is the best play of the week....but it will not be one of the picks in the Hilton



Ace-Ace vs Shrink picks

2-Hou-3.5
1-Den-2
1-Atl+4


99 System picks
There was one that fit 100% it was NE with 53 points...Myline Pick Atl....it was like the battle between the new system and the one that I have won 11 out of 14 years....lots!!!!! of looking at this game

MYLINE....won out

The 99 system is 7-0...this one is against the system...remember it kicks in on week 4...so right now its a tool to see value....Hou was base on more than the 99 system...it did show value of 13 points value...but this week there is only one 99 play...and I'm not on it...hope that dont kick me in the ass


Best to all

Ace-Ace