Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup
50 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RAYS (With Niemann)
Despite scoring just one run in yesterday's 3-1 loss to David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays, I still believe the Tigers are the best play on the board today because it's not very often Justin Verlander loses at home... especially during the day. A few untimely errors cost the Tigers a chance to win yesterday's contest, but I'm not sure they were in the right frame of mind to get it done anyhow, scoring just one run late in the game. Today, I can guarantee you those same players who committed the errors are looking to make amends and get this team back on the winning track.
You see, the Tigers play much better at home and must win these types of games if they want to keep their lead in the AL Central. Detroit is 41-21 at home while the Rays are just 27-37 on the road, and it's not often the Tigers lose a game at home when the series is on the line. After winning game one but dropping game two, this is a pivotal rubber match that has a decided pitching advantage for the home team. The aforementioned Verlander is not only 7-2 at home with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, but he's also 6-2 during day game starts with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, not to mention the fact opponents are hitting just .185 against him.
Critics will point to his rather "average" August as a reason to stay away, but I believe he's just about to turn it around just as he did in 2007... a similar season to 2009. After struggling much of August, he turned it around in his last start of that month (Aug. 27th) was a major home win over the Yankees... 16-0. He pitched 7 shutout innings in the win and that catapulted him back to the top of his game. That's going to happen again this afternoon, starting with the Rays at home.
Verlander went on to allow just one earned run in each of his next three starts and finished the season with five wins in his last seven starts... and it started with that late August shutout win over the Yankees. We have all the makings of a complete game shutout for Verlander this afternoon, and although I won't go that far, I will say that Verlander is well overdue for one of these types of performances, and the fact that the Rays seem to be in a bit of an offensive slump right now only makes things better for our side. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 13 home games, 6 of their last 7 Sunday starts, and 21 of their last 28 game after the opponent scores two or less runs with Verlander on the hill.
Tampa counters with Jeff Niemann, and although his season ERA is a respectable 3.87, it's hard to ignore the fact that he appears to be slowing down, showing signs of fatigue. After a stretch of games in which he pitched seven or more innings allowing just one or two runs, he's now on a run of four straight games going less than seven innings while allowing four or more earned runs in three of those four. His fastball has lost a little velocity and he's having some control problems with his breaking stuff, walking three runners in two his last three starts. Seriously, do you trust a guy like Niemann in a situation like this when each game becomes more and more like a playoff atmosphere? Or do you trust Verlander and his proven track record?
This one will be decided by the 7th inning. Tigers roll the Rays today.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------------GL GUYS