Wunderdog
Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Pittsburgh -140 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.6)
Both of these teams sit at 51-71, but the outcome of this game shouldn't be as close. The Pirates looks for their sixth straight win here as the young players are starting to gel. They Pirates offense has been stellar, outscoring their opponents 34-12 during this run. At home they are a winning teams at 33-27, averaging 4.7 runs per game. On the road, the Reds are 25-36, averaging just 4.0 runs per game. They've lost seven of their last eight. And, they start a pitcher who has been deficient all season long. Homer Bailey owns a 7.53 ERA in twelve starts and over his last three starts, it's up to 9.25! Over the past two seasons, Cincy is 3-16 with Bailey on the mound. In their last 13 games vs. losing teams, the Reds are just 3-10. Pitt is the easy call here.
Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs +150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
On the run line this year, Cincinnati is 53-69 for -30.4 units (27-34 for -20.8 units on the road). Pittsburgh is 66-55 against the run line overall and 36-24 for +13.8 units at home. The Reds have been outscored the past eight games by a combined score of 44-21. Homer Bailey has been shelled this season, lasting just 5.0 innings per start, giving up nearly one run per inning pitched! The Pirates offense has been big-time, averaging nearly six runs per game over their past five games. I like the value on Pitt here at +150 odds.
Game: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Colorado -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It's still August but it feels like the September stretch run is here as the Giants and Rockies battle in a series that will likely have playoff implications. The Giants send ace Tim Lincecum and his 12-3 record to the mound. The betting public loves this guy and as such, we get value here on the Rockies. Let's not forget that the Giants are on the road in this game, facing a very good Colorado team. Lincecum is not unbeatable. Two of his three losses have come in his seven road games. And, he's coming off a beating at the hands of the Reds. He's opposed here by Ubaldo Jimenez who has been very impressive in his own right. He's got a 3.41 ERA and is super-hot right now. In his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. So the pitching matchup here is not very lopsided at all. Then we look at offense and that's where we see the lopsidedness of this game. The Giants average 3.8 runs per game on the road while Colorado gets 5.9 per game at home. This season the Rockies have not shriveled when playing good teams. They are 15-4 vs. teams at .540 to .620. I like the Rockies at home here.
