Dave
Malinsky
4* #810 HOUSTON/MEMPHIS Under
As we enter the final push for playoff positioning the phrase "Manage
The Game", which we will reduce to "MTG", begins coming into play
much more often. In most of these games we are focusing more on the
Total than the Side, and the concept is exactly what the name calls
it to be - a team in position to manage affairs against a particular
opponent will use their advantages to do just that. It means that
when we see a big favorite in a setting in which they do not want to
use any more energy than is necessary we can confidently look for an
Under, as they control the pace to grind out the win. And when a team
plays defense the way that Houston does (#5 in the NBA on our best
set of ratings), the task is made that much easier.
The Rockets do not have any matchup issues against a tired Memphis
team, but that is not news - when you are laying a baker's dozen the
marketplace is fully aware. So they can establish their flow here,
and that means a methodical half-court affair in which Rick Adelman
is in no hurry whatsoever. Off of showdown games vs. Utah and
Phoenix, and with a trip to the altitude of Denver immediately on
deck, the idea is to keep the minutes of the key cogs down, and also
to make the minutes that they do play as deliberate as possible.
Adelman has already shown his cards in these settings, going 5-1 to
the Under when favored in double figures this season, with those six
games finishing a collective 107 points below the projections, an
average of 16.1 per game.
Memphis will do little to impact the flow; in going 4-2 to the Under
when taking double figures in calendar 2009 it shows how teams are
managing the pace against them at this time of the season. They may
be limited here without Rudy Gay (eye), who left early vs.
Philadelphia, taxing a team that lacks depth, and it may not be easy
generating much pace or offensive efficiency with Mike Conley off of
a career-high 44 minutes against Philadelphia last night, while O. J.
Mayor and Marc Gasol also logged high counts. They just go along for
the ride in this one.
6* #834 NORTH CAROLINA/DUKE Under
It does not get much more intense than when the two most bitter
rivals in all of college basketball go head-to-head in the final game
of the regular season with a share of the A.C.C. Championship on the
line. And that means a level of passion and intensity that makes it
much more difficult to find open looks at the basket in a game in
which the defenses ratchet up. That matters in a pointspread range in
which the oddsmakers are calling for a free-flowing track meet
throughout.
Yes, the first meeting between these two was an offensive showcase
that North Carolina won 101-87. But while that helps to set this line
in a high range, there were circumstances in play that we will not
see this time around. In that game Mike Krzyzewski took a much
different path than expected, choosing to run and press the matter
against the Tar Heels, who were down to a seven-man rotation. It was
a hot day in the area, and the lack of air conditioning at Cameron
created a sweltering environment, which he thought he could use to
his advantage. And when Duke exploded to a 52-44 halftime lead, it
appeared that his tactics were correct. It ultimately back-fired, of
course, as the Carolina starters reached back for something special,
and the only two players that contributed off the bench were on their
game, with Bobby Frasor and Ed Davis combining for 17 points on 6-8
shooting. And in a free-flowing affair the Blue Devils had no answer
for Ty Lawson, who exploded for 25 points. There was a positive,
however, in their ability to limit the touches of Tyler Hansbrough,
who had only 17 points on nine field goal attempts, and that part can
repeat here - not only has Krzyzewski coached as many floor minutes
against Hansbrough as perhaps any player through his career, but he
has likely been dreaming up schemes to stop him through those years
in the off-season anyway.
So fast forward to today and what do we have? An entirely different
flow. Away from Cameron there is no chance of Duke inviting a track
meet. And that is not just vs. Carolina, but any A.C.C. opponent -
the Blue Devils are 6-1 to the Under on conference trips this season,
with the average score in those comes coming in a full 11.0 below the
projections. And it is not all that easy for the Tar Heels to push
things with Lawson far from 100 percent - his injured toe will not
keep him out in what is almost assuredly his last home game, but
having missed practices each of the last two days, and using crutches
to limit pressure, he will not be on his game. With neither team
filled with depth (Nolan Smith was a spark plug with 11 points and
two assists in 22 minutes the first time around, but is likely to be
held out until the conference tourney), we actually have a couple of
punched-out sides at the end of the long schedule, which limits
efficiency as well. This turns into a steeple chase, instead of a
sprint.
4* #838 WAKE FOREST over CLEMSON
Dino Gaudio has one of those advantages over Oliver Purnell that
coaches love to have - his players are better. That matters when a
team that is playing its Last Home Game, and has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2
ATS at home in A.C.C. play, because it means that they are going to
play at a special level (particularly so in the case of the Deacons,
with those back-to-back league road wins building confidence), which
forces the underdog to overcome the disadvantages through hustle and
effort. And while Clemson is known for just that under Purnell, there
is a catch this time.
When these two met at Littlejohn earlier, Purnell's team won some of
the "hustle" categories by staggering amounts. They committed nine
fewer turnovers, had 10 more offensive rebounds, and three more
steals. If you do that at home, it should translate to something good
on the scoreboard unless there are serious issues in other parts of
the matchup. The scoreboard that night ended with Wake Forest on top
78-68, and that tells us what Clemson is up against here.
Wake Forest has the best perimeter on the court in Jeff Teague, who
scored 24 points and dished out five assists in the first meeting.
The Deacons have the best inside player in James Johnson, who had 19
points and eight rebounds. With a chance to likely pull into a tie
with Duke for 2nd place in the A.C.C. the energy level in this
atmosphere will be special, and when a team that shoots better than
its opponent (49.4 percent vs. 46.6), stops opposing shooters better
(allowing 39.0 vs. 42.2) is priced at no more than the home court
advantage, and perhaps not even that on a day in which the court
means more, it is easy to get in the game. This is an awfully
difficult team to chase here because they have the depth to not wear
down, and when playing from behind Clemson is up against a defense
that has held teams to a stifling 29.5 percent, and shooters that
have knocked down 70.8 at the free throw line. It is too much for the
Tigers to overcome, especially since their preferred pace plays right
into the hands of what this favorite does best.
