Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Arizona at Arizona St. Feb 22 2009 10:00PM
Prediction: Arizona
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Arizona as they travel to face bitter state rival Arizona State slated to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-15 for 73% since 2003. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points and is off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog. Arizona is a strong 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 60% to 80% this season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 60% to 80% after 15 or more games this season. A major factor in this game is that the Arizona perimeter defense will contain the 3-point shooting of Arizona. AiS shows a 90% probability that ASU will hit between 31 and 37% from behind the arc and in past games where this occurred Arizona is 12-4 ATS over the past 3 seasons. I also think experience will be a factor as well knowing that the Arizona program is looking to make it 25 straight years playing the Tournament while ASU is looking to make their first trip since 2003. Arizona also has a significant amount of revenge on it’s side as well. Former HC Olsen went 43-6 against ASU and now Arizona has lost 3 straight. It is also the first time in 25 years that ASU has won BB games in Tuscon. So, with a Tournament berth possibly riding on this game and triple revenge, I think Arizona will continue to dominate and have a very realistic chance at the upset. As an optional consideration you can reduce the 15* amount to 12* and add a 3* amount on a very generous money line. Take the Wildcats.
Game: Arizona at Arizona St. Feb 22 2009 10:00PM
Prediction: Arizona
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Arizona as they travel to face bitter state rival Arizona State slated to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-15 for 73% since 2003. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points and is off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog. Arizona is a strong 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 60% to 80% this season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 60% to 80% after 15 or more games this season. A major factor in this game is that the Arizona perimeter defense will contain the 3-point shooting of Arizona. AiS shows a 90% probability that ASU will hit between 31 and 37% from behind the arc and in past games where this occurred Arizona is 12-4 ATS over the past 3 seasons. I also think experience will be a factor as well knowing that the Arizona program is looking to make it 25 straight years playing the Tournament while ASU is looking to make their first trip since 2003. Arizona also has a significant amount of revenge on it’s side as well. Former HC Olsen went 43-6 against ASU and now Arizona has lost 3 straight. It is also the first time in 25 years that ASU has won BB games in Tuscon. So, with a Tournament berth possibly riding on this game and triple revenge, I think Arizona will continue to dominate and have a very realistic chance at the upset. As an optional consideration you can reduce the 15* amount to 12* and add a 3* amount on a very generous money line. Take the Wildcats.
