Service Plays Sunday 01/25/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cajun-Sports Executive- Sunday



Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 213.5/-104 Over Play Title: Cajun Sports NBA 4-Star Total Game of the Week
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Pepsi Center will be the site of tonight’s meeting between the host Denver Nuggets and the visiting Utah Jazz. The Jazz have dominated this series of late winning their last four meetings overall.
The Jazz enter tonight’s game having gone ‘over’ the total at a rate of 25-19 on the season. They have continued their ‘over’ play on the highway going 13-9 Over this year and 11-2 Over their last thirteen games overall. In those contests the Jazz have averaged 103.4 points per game versus teams that allow 99 points per game. Defensively the Jazz have been suspect on that end of the floor allowing 104.6 points per game to teams that only average scoring 98.3 points per game. The Jazz have also flown ‘over’ the posted total when facing teams from the Western Conference going 16-5 Over their last 21. We also note that the Jazz are 10-2 Over when installed as a road underdog and are a perfect 5-0 Over when playing the second game of a back-to-back and 15-4 Over their last nineteen in that situation.

Denver has also played to the ‘over’ this season with a record of 24-19 on the year. When playing at the Pepsi Center the Nuggets have gone ‘over’ at a rate of 13-10 their last 23 games. They are averaging 107.4 points per game against teams that would normally only allow 98.8 points per game and on the defensive end they are allowing 106.0 points per game to teams that average 99.2 points per game. Denver has played to the ‘under’ recently at home going ‘under’ in four of their last five games overall but there are angles for tonight’s contest that point to an ‘over’ here. We see that when the Nuggets face teams from the Northwest Division they have gone ‘over’ at a rate of 38-18-2. They have also gone ‘over’ in ten of their last fourteen games overall. When Denver has been installed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points they have gone ‘over’ at a rate of 32-19 over the last two seasons.

This series has seen the ‘over’ cash in six of the last nine meetings over the last three years. Since 1996 the ‘over’ has cashed in at a rate of 14 of the last 23 meetings that were played in the Mile High City.

Our Total Performance Ratings Index: 9.4 points “Over”

With both teams having solid ‘over’ tendencies not only on the season but in this series and the fact that our Total Performance Ratings Index shows a significant mathematical advantage on the ‘over’ we will make this selection our NBA Play of the Day.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) Utah Jazz / Denver Nuggets Over 213.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz

Michigan St.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KBHOOPS

NCAAB
5* West Virginia ML -113 **POD**
5* Northern Iowa +2

NBA
5* Spurs/Lakers UNDER 201.5

 

[MonsterBuck]

Sorry for the clutter CPaW, but can somebody confirm IC on GSW. Thanks, and bol on your action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Malinsky 6* Write Up

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6* #826 VANDERBILT over FLORIDA

We see Florida as being very vulnerable on the road when having to
face a team that will slow the tempo and has some size and scoring
punch around the basket. We see Vanderbilt in one of those ?backs to
the wall? regular-season games in which we can expect an ?A? effort
from the Commodores. And that means entirely the wrong price range
for this setting, with the particular timing making it worthy of a
step-up.

We lost a 4* ticket with Kevin Stallings and Vandy on this court vs.
Tennessee earlier this week, but in truth their floor game was not
bad at all ? they our-rebounded the Volunteers 35-31, and only
committed 13 turnovers against those frenetic presses. We thought
they also did a good job of finding open shots on offense, but it was
one of those nights in which they simply did not fall. And that is
hardly an exaggeration ? the Vanderbilt starting lineup was an
astounding 6-32 from the field. That stretches the laws of basketball
probability to a real extreme, especially at their home rims. And it
makes the timing ideal for a reversal of that form, particularly
against the kind of soft half-court defense they will face here.

Florida carries this pointspread role because of past reputation and
the current 16-3 record. But there is not all that much to like. The
schedule has been abysmally weak (#225 Sagarin and #226 Pomeroy), and
in their only lined road games the Gators lost close decisions at
Florida State and South Carolina, and barely escaped at Auburn. The
S.E.C. opening salvo was laid out ideally for them, facing four
non-contenders that would not tax their soft interior defense, but
now they have to take on A. J. Ogilvy, and in lithe Alex Tyus and
Chandler Parsons they do not have a stopper down low. And note that
even in facing short-handed Mississippi, youthful Arkansas, and the
afore-mentioned Auburn and South Carolina, they have allowed 51.3
percent shooting on two-point attempts, and were beaten on the boards
by a -8. And note that one of the key contributions to their
scoreboard showing in those games was something that they do not
deserve any credit for at all ? those four teams combined to shoot a
dismal 57.8 percent from the free throw line, making only 48 of 83
attempts (they likely do not escape at Auburn if the Tigers do not
shoot an abysmal 10-21 from the stripe). This is a young team (three
sophomore starters, and the first two players off the bench are
freshmen) lacking in experience and depth, with Billy Donovan only
able to go seven-deep comfortably right now.

Stallings is well aware of how to beat a Donovan team, and it has led
to back-to-back wins in the series on this court. We do not hesitate
to call for a third here, and the markets are being most generous to
pay off on merely the outright victory.


4* #804 L.A. LAKERS/SAN ANTONIO Under

In a game that will resemble a playoff atmosphere, with two teams
that not only know each other well, but also have ample time to
prepare, we call for the defenses to take the lead here. And that
makes a Total in the low 200?s far out of place.

In four regular season meetings LY the Lakers and Spurs played to
counts of 199, 199, 184 and 191. In the playoffs the five games fell
174, 172, 187, 184 and 192. It shows that the marketplace is calling
for a most serious change here, and perhaps that too much emphasis
has been put on that 112-111 San Antonio win earlier this month. But
in reality not all that much had changed in terms of game pacing ?
that was simply one of those nights in which the shooting was off the
charts, with the two teams combining for a sizzling 56.9 percent,
including 19-36 from 3-point range. That is not going to happen again.

The Lakers have been off since Thursday night, giving Phil Jackson a
couple of days to put his defensive game plan together. San Antonio
has had only a home game vs. New Jersey in the last five days, and we
know what Gregg Popovich can do when time is on his side,
particularly in this role ? the Spurs are 7-2 to the Under when in
the underdog role this season, and 23-9-1 the past two campaigns, as
game management becomes the focus in such matchups. This game brings
neither the pace, nor the offensive efficiency, that is being
projected.

 

[crimpride]

A buck for one pick? Thats ridiculous.

whats ridiculous is that avatar of yours.......wow....avatar of the year!:toast:

 

[crimpride]

Malinsky 6* Write Up

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6* #826 VANDERBILT over FLORIDA

We see Florida as being very vulnerable on the road when having to
face a team that will slow the tempo and has some size and scoring
punch around the basket. We see Vanderbilt in one of those ?backs to
the wall? regular-season games in which we can expect an ?A? effort
from the Commodores. And that means entirely the wrong price range
for this setting, with the particular timing making it worthy of a
step-up.

We lost a 4* ticket with Kevin Stallings and Vandy on this court vs.
Tennessee earlier this week, but in truth their floor game was not
bad at all ? they our-rebounded the Volunteers 35-31, and only
committed 13 turnovers against those frenetic presses. We thought
they also did a good job of finding open shots on offense, but it was
one of those nights in which they simply did not fall. And that is
hardly an exaggeration ? the Vanderbilt starting lineup was an
astounding 6-32 from the field. That stretches the laws of basketball
probability to a real extreme, especially at their home rims. And it
makes the timing ideal for a reversal of that form, particularly
against the kind of soft half-court defense they will face here.

Florida carries this pointspread role because of past reputation and
the current 16-3 record. But there is not all that much to like. The
schedule has been abysmally weak (#225 Sagarin and #226 Pomeroy), and
in their only lined road games the Gators lost close decisions at
Florida State and South Carolina, and barely escaped at Auburn. The
S.E.C. opening salvo was laid out ideally for them, facing four
non-contenders that would not tax their soft interior defense, but
now they have to take on A. J. Ogilvy, and in lithe Alex Tyus and
Chandler Parsons they do not have a stopper down low. And note that
even in facing short-handed Mississippi, youthful Arkansas, and the
afore-mentioned Auburn and South Carolina, they have allowed 51.3
percent shooting on two-point attempts, and were beaten on the boards
by a -8. And note that one of the key contributions to their
scoreboard showing in those games was something that they do not
deserve any credit for at all ? those four teams combined to shoot a
dismal 57.8 percent from the free throw line, making only 48 of 83
attempts (they likely do not escape at Auburn if the Tigers do not
shoot an abysmal 10-21 from the stripe). This is a young team (three
sophomore starters, and the first two players off the bench are
freshmen) lacking in experience and depth, with Billy Donovan only
able to go seven-deep comfortably right now.

Stallings is well aware of how to beat a Donovan team, and it has led
to back-to-back wins in the series on this court. We do not hesitate
to call for a third here, and the markets are being most generous to
pay off on merely the outright victory.


4* #804 L.A. LAKERS/SAN ANTONIO Under

In a game that will resemble a playoff atmosphere, with two teams
that not only know each other well, but also have ample time to
prepare, we call for the defenses to take the lead here. And that
makes a Total in the low 200?s far out of place.

In four regular season meetings LY the Lakers and Spurs played to
counts of 199, 199, 184 and 191. In the playoffs the five games fell
174, 172, 187, 184 and 192. It shows that the marketplace is calling
for a most serious change here, and perhaps that too much emphasis
has been put on that 112-111 San Antonio win earlier this month. But
in reality not all that much had changed in terms of game pacing ?
that was simply one of those nights in which the shooting was off the
charts, with the two teams combining for a sizzling 56.9 percent,
including 19-36 from 3-point range. That is not going to happen again.

The Lakers have been off since Thursday night, giving Phil Jackson a
couple of days to put his defensive game plan together. San Antonio
has had only a home game vs. New Jersey in the last five days, and we
know what Gregg Popovich can do when time is on his side,
particularly in this role ? the Spurs are 7-2 to the Under when in
the underdog role this season, and 23-9-1 the past two campaigns, as
game management becomes the focus in such matchups. This game brings
neither the pace, nor the offensive efficiency, that is being
projected.

:nohead:

 

[Eagle8]

IC wins with Bonnies!!!!!

 

[obbietale]

mexican did you purchase drew gordon and is it confirmed

 

[chase88]

Jefferson-sports

cbb
miami-7

 

[obbietale]

ic lost with the bonnies what are you talking about

 

[Eagle8]

ic lost with the bonnies what are you talking about

I bet bonnies 2nd half +6 and my account paid it as a win.

 

[obbietale]

sorry for the clutter, espn had bonnies losing by 18 sorry eagle my bad

 

[rta21]

no he didnt 12 point lose they covered

 

[Eagle8]

St. Bonaventure 68
(11-8, 2-4 A 10)
Dayton 80
(18-2, 4-1 A 10)
Final

Conversation »

Last Play:

1 2 T
SBU Bonnies 23 45 68
DAY Flyers 30 50 80


espn has it as a win, cbs sportline is a loss. I think Cbs is wrong

 

[mexican]

mexican did you purchase drew gordon and is it confirmed

the informacion that i say is the Bonus Play. seys on www.whowillcover.com gordon plays cost 35 dlls and the play is Bobcats at Pacers - 7 pm ET

 

[Hap]

CBS corrected now to 80-68; must have credited last 3 pointer to Dayton instead of Bonnies.

 

[Bollie]

ic lost with the bonnies what are you talking about

Final Bonnie 68/80 Spread was 14 Bonnie win and so does IC.

 

[obbietale]

what a scare on the bonnies whohoo ic is the real deal, cbs scared the heck out of me.. its a win

 

[thegodfather512]

I'm at michigan state game can someone please post the halftime line for me so I can call in bet. My Pocket PC Phone won't let me place bets on my books