Steve Merril
NCAA Football
(3% play) WASHINGTON +14 (vs. Alabama) - 3:00 pm ET (ESPN) #271
Washington went 12-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming against USC who closed the season by winning eight consecutive games. Washington’s offense averaged 44.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33.0 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. The Huskies were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 210 yards per game and threw for 267 yards per game. Washington’s offense travelled well, and they actually averaged more points per game (48.0) and more yards per play (7.6) than their overall season averages. The Huskies are led by shrewd head coach Chris Petersen who has experience knocking off big name teams in bowl games while at Boise State.
Alabama steamrolled their opponents en route to a perfect 13-0 SU regular season. There is no question that Alabama has the most talented team in the country. However, the pointspread in this game is simply way too high. My power ratings only make Alabama -10, so there’s a lot of value in taking Washington as a two-touchdown underdog. Alabama’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. The Crimson Tide will will now face a Washington defense that only gave up 17.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that averaged 29.3 ppg and 5.7 yppl). Washington is plenty capable of keeping this game close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies in the Peach Bowl on Saturday afternoon.
Play WASHINGTON (+) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OHIO STATE -2.5 (vs. Clemson) - 7:00 pm ET (ESPN) #273
Ohio State went 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Penn State. Ohio State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that made a bowl game. Overall, the Buckeyes’ offense averaged 42.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 26.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play. Ohio State owns a potent rushing attack that averaged 258 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush. They put those numbers up against defenses that only gave up 165 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush. Clemson’s defense gave up 150 rushing yards or more in four games this season and the Tigers allowed 36, 34, and 43 points in three games of those games. Clemson lost to Pittsburgh, and were fortunate in coming back from fourth quarter deficits against Florida State and Louisville.
Clemson had another strong season by going 12-1 SU, but as mentioned above, they were extremely fortunate to not have more losses. The Tigers certainly have a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Ohio State. Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play. The Tigers will will now face an Ohio State defense that only gave up 14.2 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. My power ratings make Ohio State -3.5 over Clemson, so laying less than a field goal with the Buckeyes presents solid value in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday night.
Play OHIO STATE (-) as a 3% play.