WUNDERDOG
Game: Michigan State vs. Connecticut (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Connecticut -4 (-110)
The Huskies and the Spartans will open Final Four action this evening. The Huskies have two reasons why they are 31-4, and why they are in the Final Four. In their four tournament games, the Huskies are out rebounding opponents by an unimaginable 17 per game, and at the same time are getting to the line 20 times more per game. Those are going to be huge hurdles for the Spartans to get over. The Huskies also have an answer for everything. The four games have seen four different leading scorers in Price, Walker, Austrie and Robinson. Robinson has been the X-factor for the Huskies with his play over the past month, as he has become a scorer, tenacious rebounder, and shot blocker. Michigan St. just doesn't have all the answers the Huskies do and right now, UConn looks to be peaking at the right time. UConn gets the call.
Game: Michigan State vs. Connecticut (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Connecticut -4 (-110)
The Huskies and the Spartans will open Final Four action this evening. The Huskies have two reasons why they are 31-4, and why they are in the Final Four. In their four tournament games, the Huskies are out rebounding opponents by an unimaginable 17 per game, and at the same time are getting to the line 20 times more per game. Those are going to be huge hurdles for the Spartans to get over. The Huskies also have an answer for everything. The four games have seen four different leading scorers in Price, Walker, Austrie and Robinson. Robinson has been the X-factor for the Huskies with his play over the past month, as he has become a scorer, tenacious rebounder, and shot blocker. Michigan St. just doesn't have all the answers the Huskies do and right now, UConn looks to be peaking at the right time. UConn gets the call.
Big Al
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Orlando. Like many NBA clubs, the Hawks play a lot better at home than they do on the road. Atlanta just dropped its fifth straight road game (104-92 at Boston), yet it is 29-9 at home in Philips Arena. Tonight, Orlando comes to town off its biggest win of the season -- a 116-87 dismantling of Cleveland, who has the best record in the league. This will be a tough game for Orlando to follow through and win, given its "perfect" game last night. And it also won't help matters that the Hawks will be playing this game with revenge from a 121-87 whitewash back in January. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Magic in this situation, but consider that teams playing with revenge from a 34-point (or worse) loss are an awesome 56-23 ATS if they're off a SU/ATS loss, and they are not an underdog of more than 13 points. And if our 'play-against' team (here, Orlando) is off a game which it covered by 7+ points, then our 56-23 stat zooms to 29-6 ATS. Finally, the Hawks are 11-2-1 ATS their last 14 at home. NBA Roadkill on Atlanta. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Orlando. Like many NBA clubs, the Hawks play a lot better at home than they do on the road. Atlanta just dropped its fifth straight road game (104-92 at Boston), yet it is 29-9 at home in Philips Arena. Tonight, Orlando comes to town off its biggest win of the season -- a 116-87 dismantling of Cleveland, who has the best record in the league. This will be a tough game for Orlando to follow through and win, given its "perfect" game last night. And it also won't help matters that the Hawks will be playing this game with revenge from a 121-87 whitewash back in January. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Magic in this situation, but consider that teams playing with revenge from a 34-point (or worse) loss are an awesome 56-23 ATS if they're off a SU/ATS loss, and they are not an underdog of more than 13 points. And if our 'play-against' team (here, Orlando) is off a game which it covered by 7+ points, then our 56-23 stat zooms to 29-6 ATS. Finally, the Hawks are 11-2-1 ATS their last 14 at home. NBA Roadkill on Atlanta. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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SPORTS UNLIMITED
5*BEST BET
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Sat, 04/04/09 - 6:05 PM ?O
double-dime bet 816 UConn -4.0 (-110) SportBet vs 815 Michigan St.
Analysis: PLAY: CONNECTICUT
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Connecticut has been playing great fundamental basketball. They are shooting over 50% from the floor and they are holding their opponents to under 40% shooting. Connecticut has out rebounded all opponents. This is key as that has been the key to Michigan St success. I have Connecticut winning this game by 8-11 points. This is my FINAL 4 BEST BET.
Marco Rated this Play a 5 STAR PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
BOUGHT AND PAID FOR.
5*BEST BET
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Sat, 04/04/09 - 6:05 PM ?O
double-dime bet 816 UConn -4.0 (-110) SportBet vs 815 Michigan St.
Analysis: PLAY: CONNECTICUT
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Connecticut has been playing great fundamental basketball. They are shooting over 50% from the floor and they are holding their opponents to under 40% shooting. Connecticut has out rebounded all opponents. This is key as that has been the key to Michigan St success. I have Connecticut winning this game by 8-11 points. This is my FINAL 4 BEST BET.
Marco Rated this Play a 5 STAR PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
BOUGHT AND PAID FOR.
Dr Bob- no best bets
Saturday NCAA Analysis
Michigan State (+4) over Connecticut
The Big East is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers and the public during the post-season as Big East teams are just 11-15 ATS in post-season games against non-conference opponents this year (8-11 ATS in the NCAA Tournament) and the Big East is 77-82-1 ATS in all non-conference games this season. Connecticut has been one Big East team that has bucked that trend, as the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament so far, but Michigan State has played well too and my ratings only favor U Conn by 3 points without factoring in whatever advantage the Spartans may have for playing this game in nearby Detroit. Teams playing in their home state are a profitable 119-79 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the advantage for Michigan State is not as much as it might be if this were not a Final Four game. The portion of a Final Four crowd that is not part of the 4 schools’ ticket allotment isn’t as localized as in the first two rounds or the regional rounds since the extra seats are more likely to be filled by corporate sponsors and people that have no affiliation with any of the participating schools. However, a good number of those tickets are likely to find themselves in the hands of Michigan State backers more so than Connecticut backers, so the Spartans are still likely to have the crowd advantage in this game. The line value favors Michigan State even without adding any advantage for playing in Detroit and Tom Izzo’s teams have a history of playing well in the NCAA Tournament (25-14-1 ATS) and the Spartans are 17-4-1 ATS in NCAA Tourament games when seeded #5 or better and not favored by 9 points or more. I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +4 or more (2-Star Best Bet at +5) and I’d lean with the Spartans at +3 ½ or +3. My predicted total is 133 points.
Villanova (+7) over North Carolina
Villanova presents an interesting match-up for North Carolina, as the Wildcats’ guard-heavy lineup should be able to penetrate the Tarheels defense while also taking advantage of North Carolina’s mediocre perimeter defense (34.3% 3-pointers allowed). The Cats may not have an answer for UNC All-Americaon Tyler Hansbrough, but Hansbrough isn’t quick enough to defend Villanova’s top scorer Dante Cunningham. The Wildcats have picked up their level of defense during the tournament in limiting a couple of very good offensive teams (UCLA and Pitt), but North Carolina is the best offensive team in the nation and good defensive teams haven’t had much success stopping the Tarheels’ attack this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 7 points using the entire season, but it’s clear that Villanova is better now than they were earlier in the season and using games since January would favor the Tarheels by just 5 ½ points. Underdogs of 7 points or more are 8-1 ATS in the national semifinals and I’ll lean with Villanova +7 points or more. My math predicted total is 159 points
Saturday NCAA Analysis
Michigan State (+4) over Connecticut
The Big East is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers and the public during the post-season as Big East teams are just 11-15 ATS in post-season games against non-conference opponents this year (8-11 ATS in the NCAA Tournament) and the Big East is 77-82-1 ATS in all non-conference games this season. Connecticut has been one Big East team that has bucked that trend, as the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament so far, but Michigan State has played well too and my ratings only favor U Conn by 3 points without factoring in whatever advantage the Spartans may have for playing this game in nearby Detroit. Teams playing in their home state are a profitable 119-79 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the advantage for Michigan State is not as much as it might be if this were not a Final Four game. The portion of a Final Four crowd that is not part of the 4 schools’ ticket allotment isn’t as localized as in the first two rounds or the regional rounds since the extra seats are more likely to be filled by corporate sponsors and people that have no affiliation with any of the participating schools. However, a good number of those tickets are likely to find themselves in the hands of Michigan State backers more so than Connecticut backers, so the Spartans are still likely to have the crowd advantage in this game. The line value favors Michigan State even without adding any advantage for playing in Detroit and Tom Izzo’s teams have a history of playing well in the NCAA Tournament (25-14-1 ATS) and the Spartans are 17-4-1 ATS in NCAA Tourament games when seeded #5 or better and not favored by 9 points or more. I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +4 or more (2-Star Best Bet at +5) and I’d lean with the Spartans at +3 ½ or +3. My predicted total is 133 points.
Villanova (+7) over North Carolina
Villanova presents an interesting match-up for North Carolina, as the Wildcats’ guard-heavy lineup should be able to penetrate the Tarheels defense while also taking advantage of North Carolina’s mediocre perimeter defense (34.3% 3-pointers allowed). The Cats may not have an answer for UNC All-Americaon Tyler Hansbrough, but Hansbrough isn’t quick enough to defend Villanova’s top scorer Dante Cunningham. The Wildcats have picked up their level of defense during the tournament in limiting a couple of very good offensive teams (UCLA and Pitt), but North Carolina is the best offensive team in the nation and good defensive teams haven’t had much success stopping the Tarheels’ attack this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 7 points using the entire season, but it’s clear that Villanova is better now than they were earlier in the season and using games since January would favor the Tarheels by just 5 ½ points. Underdogs of 7 points or more are 8-1 ATS in the national semifinals and I’ll lean with Villanova +7 points or more. My math predicted total is 159 points
Tom Freese
Memphis at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -6.5
We expect Memphis to be flat tonight off their home win over Dallas last night. Milwaukee has had their way with Memphis of late going 5-0 Straight Up and 4-1 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Grizzlies. Memphis has the fourth worst record in the NBA. The Grizzlies are in a situation they can't handle as they are 8-20 ATS their last 28 games as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Bucks play well when playing with one day of rest going 8-3 ATS their last 11 games in that role. 10* PLAY ON MILWAUKEE -
Memphis at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -6.5
We expect Memphis to be flat tonight off their home win over Dallas last night. Milwaukee has had their way with Memphis of late going 5-0 Straight Up and 4-1 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Grizzlies. Memphis has the fourth worst record in the NBA. The Grizzlies are in a situation they can't handle as they are 8-20 ATS their last 28 games as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Bucks play well when playing with one day of rest going 8-3 ATS their last 11 games in that role. 10* PLAY ON MILWAUKEE -
HalfBets.com
OK so looks like SSG has released a FINAL 4 + Championship package. They also have a GUARANTEED 10** Game of the Year on the UNC game but i did not pourchase that yet. Here are the plays from the Final Four package. Is anyone buying the 10** Game of the year pick>?
Michigan St vs UCONN - 6pm
PICK: Michigan St +4 (6*)
Villanova vs North Carolina - 8:45pmPICK: Villanova +7 (6*)
OK so looks like SSG has released a FINAL 4 + Championship package. They also have a GUARANTEED 10** Game of the Year on the UNC game but i did not pourchase that yet. Here are the plays from the Final Four package. Is anyone buying the 10** Game of the year pick>?
Michigan St vs UCONN - 6pm
PICK: Michigan St +4 (6*)
Villanova vs North Carolina - 8:45pmPICK: Villanova +7 (6*)
STAN SHARP
TRIPLE DIME
VILLANOVA / NORTH CAROLINA OVER 159.5 @ 845 est
Stan expects this game to be a fast paced up tempo game and stan is looking to the over in this matchup . North carolina likes to run and will want the up tempo . Villanova has been scoring as well and was able toscore 78 on a good pitt defense last week . Stan expects both teams to reach 80 easily . Stan projects 167 - 171 total poiints .
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TRIPLE DIME
VILLANOVA / NORTH CAROLINA OVER 159.5 @ 845 est
Stan expects this game to be a fast paced up tempo game and stan is looking to the over in this matchup . North carolina likes to run and will want the up tempo . Villanova has been scoring as well and was able toscore 78 on a good pitt defense last week . Stan expects both teams to reach 80 easily . Stan projects 167 - 171 total poiints .
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MTi Sports
LA Clippers at Denver
Play: Denver -14.5
After beating the Knicks in overtime, the Clippers have lost three straight. In their last game, they had a good offensive game vs the Hornets but lost 104-98 at home. They shot 50% from the field, they had 27 assists and made 11-of-25 three point attempts. This is not a good sign. The Clips are 0-10 ATS (-10.4 ppg) on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, 0-10 ATS (-7.5 ppg) on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-11 ATS on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field.In their loss to the Hornets, Baron Davis was 3-of-5 from the arc, Eric Gordon led them with 25 points and Chris Kaman had no assists and six turnovers. These stats are not a positive indicator for LA. They are 0-5 ATS THIS season after a loss in which Baron Davis shot better than 50% from the arc, falling short of the number by an average of 17.9 ppg. Also, the Clippers are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) after a loss at home in which Chris Kaman had more turnovers than assists and 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Eric Gordon was their high scorer.In their previous meeting the Nuggets won 107-94 at home. They out-rebounded the Clippers 56-30, completely dominating the boards. Not only are the Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since the All-Stat break as a road dog when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up, they are 0-7 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds.The Nuggets are on a roll and they have risen to the second seed in the West. However, there are many teams nipping at their heels and that should be enough to have them focused here. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DENVER 116 LA Clippers 94
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LA Clippers at Denver
Play: Denver -14.5
After beating the Knicks in overtime, the Clippers have lost three straight. In their last game, they had a good offensive game vs the Hornets but lost 104-98 at home. They shot 50% from the field, they had 27 assists and made 11-of-25 three point attempts. This is not a good sign. The Clips are 0-10 ATS (-10.4 ppg) on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, 0-10 ATS (-7.5 ppg) on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-11 ATS on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field.In their loss to the Hornets, Baron Davis was 3-of-5 from the arc, Eric Gordon led them with 25 points and Chris Kaman had no assists and six turnovers. These stats are not a positive indicator for LA. They are 0-5 ATS THIS season after a loss in which Baron Davis shot better than 50% from the arc, falling short of the number by an average of 17.9 ppg. Also, the Clippers are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) after a loss at home in which Chris Kaman had more turnovers than assists and 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Eric Gordon was their high scorer.In their previous meeting the Nuggets won 107-94 at home. They out-rebounded the Clippers 56-30, completely dominating the boards. Not only are the Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since the All-Stat break as a road dog when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up, they are 0-7 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds.The Nuggets are on a roll and they have risen to the second seed in the West. However, there are many teams nipping at their heels and that should be enough to have them focused here. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DENVER 116 LA Clippers 94
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