Service Plays Saturday 9/4/10

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Mighty Quinn (2-1)

Florida
Missouri
Colorado (Best Bet)
Notre Dame
Connecticut
UCLA
Syracuse
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Navy
Boise State (Monday)
 

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Romeo Santos (+6u ytd, 5-1-1 record)


Memphis +21 @ Mississippi St. (1 star)
Arkansas St. +31 @ Auburn (1 star)
Syracuse -7.5 @ Akron (1 star)
TCU -13.5 vs. Oregon St. (in Dallas) (2 star)
Washington +2 @ BYU (2 star)
Michigan St. -23 vs. Western Michigan (2 star)
Northwestern -3.5 @ Vanderbilt (3 star)
Cincinnati +2.5 @ Fresno St. (4 star GAME OF THE WEEK)


g2gbet
 
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Norm Hitzges

NCAA Football


Double Play—TCU -13.5 vs Oregon State

Double Play—Oklahoma -33.5 vs Utah State

Oklahoma State -16 vs Washington State

Florida -36.5 vs Miami, OH

Northwestern -5.5 vs Vanderbilt

Washington +2.5 vs BYU

Alabama -37.5 vs San Jose State

Nebraska -37.5 vs Western Kentucky

Michigan -2.5 vs UConn

Boise -2 vs Virginia Tech
 
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FOXSHEETS

6

Favoring: BYU on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (BYU) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins
(65-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -

Favoring: TEXAS TECH on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins
(65-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -

Favoring: NAVY on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (NAVY) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins
(65-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -

Favoring: WASHINGTON ST on the money line.
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (WASHINGTON ST) - bad team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning
(30-39 since 1992.) (43.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Favoring: WASHINGTON ST on the money line.
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (WASHINGTON ST) - bad team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season
(30-39 since 1992.) (43.5%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

5

Favoring: BYU on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (BYU) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season
(27-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (90.0%, +
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -

Favoring: OKLAHOMA ST on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent rushing defense from last season - allowed 100 or less rushing yards/game
(56-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.2%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Favoring: OKLAHOMA ST on the money line.
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent rushing defense from last season - allowed 100 or less rushing yards/game, in non-conference games
(48-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (87.3%,
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
 
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Pittsburgh Syndicate

LSU vs. UNC over 42
Washington vs. BYU over 56
Syracuse vs. Akron over 42
Texas vs. Rice over 57
Oklahoma -33
Western Kentucky vs. Nebraska over 51
 
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NELLY'S GREENSHEET

RATING 5 OKLAHOMA ST (-151⁄2) over Washington St
RATING 3 NORTHWESTERN (-51⁄2) over Vanderbilt
RATING 2 MARYLAND (+7) over Navy
RATING 2 KENTUCKY (-3) over Louisville
RATING 1 MEMPHIS (+21) over Mississippi State
RATING 1 CINCINNATI (+3) over Fresno State

System of the Week

Simple 7+ Recent Opening Road Favorites:
PLAY ON: Any opening game NCAA road favorite that won at least seven games in the previous season. 65-29-1, 69.1% since 1997
PLAY ON: USC, Arizona, Northwestern, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Wisconsin

Over/Under of the Week

NCAA: ‘OVER’ Arkansas State at Auburn (571⁄2)
Auburn should unleash a more aggressive offensive attack this season in the second year with Gus Malzahn as coordinator. Auburn has a great running game but the passing threats are there even with an unproven QB. Arkansas State is not the rush-first team of a few years ago and the Red Wolves will play at a fast pace on offense. Auburn scored 39 points per game at home last season even with four SEC games and ASU will get on the board as well in this game.

Trend of the Week

Mississippi State is 11-27 as double-digit favorites since ‘80
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Jon Garland (13-8, 3.29 ERA), San Diego Padres

There have been plenty of nice surprises for the Padres this season and Jon Garland might have to be at the top of that list. Paying a potential 15-game winner who’s got an ERA under 3.30 for $4.7 million dollars seems like a steal.

Sure he walks too many (he’s flirting with a career-high season total) but he always seems to limit the damage. San Diego is 6-3 in his last nine starts and seven of those nine outings were quality starts too.

Rick Porcello (7-11, 5.20 ERA), Detroit Tigers

Porcello’s final 2010 numbers will look pretty ugly compared to his banner rookie season. Still, Detroit backers have to be happy with the way he’s ending his sophomore campaign. Porcello has allowed just one run and one walk in his last two starts.

The Tigers are 4-1 in his last five outings and he was a dog in three of those games.


Slumping

Travis Wood (4-2, 3.53 ERA), Cincinnati Reds

Wood is a solid young talent but if you’re a Cincy backer, you’ve got to be worried about him pitching for your club in October. Sure, the Reds have won six of his last seven times he toed the rubber but Wood’s given up 10 runs on 17 hits over his last nine innings pitched.

Not surprisingly, the over is 6-1 in his last seven starts.

Josh Johnson (11-5, 2.28 ERA), Florida Marlins

Look, Josh Johnson isn’t really pitching terribly. It’s just that the Marlins never seem to be able to win whenever the big righthander is on the mound. Florida is 2-5 in Johnson’s last seven appearances and the over is 6-1 over the same stretch.
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-186, 10)

Don’t balk at the double-digit total. Let’s see what the stats have to say first – and they say a lot.

The teams have combined to go 6-2-1 against the total in their past 10 meetings, scoring at least a combined 10 runs six times. And both teams are in a role very comfortable to them on Saturday.

The Blue Jays are 7-3-1 against the total in their past 11 as an underdog. As a favorite, the Yankees are a staggering 8-2-1 against the number in their past 11.

And the pitching? Gas cans Marc Rzepczynski and Javier Vasquez have combined to see five of their past six starts to over the total. Over that span they have an 8.31 and 9.53 ERA respectively.

Also, the Yankees have scored a league-leading 726 runs, while the Blue Jays have smacked a Major League-best 202 gopher balls.

Need I go on?

Pick: Over.


Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks (-140, 9)

To put it simply, the Astros are snake-bit when they visit Arizona.

Houston has lost 11 of its past 14 trips to the desert and is a horrendous 1-7 in its past eight overall against the D-backs.

The Astros think they should be able to buck that trend by winning eight of their past 10, but the Diamondbacks have claimed six of their past seven and are surging offensively. The snakes have rattled off at least six runs over that span and are hitting way above their season average of .252.

"The guys have been playing good baseball and hopefully we can keep it going," Centerfielder Chris Young told the Associated Press. "It's nice to know we can make a difference."

If you need anymore convincing, then here is this: the Astros are one of the worst road hitting teams in the Majors. Houston is hitting a meager .244 in opponents yards this season and have scored a paltry 248 runs away from Minute Maid Park.

Look for the Astros to be grounded.

Pick: Diamondbacks.
 
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Bettors' best friend: Saturday's wagering tips

Weather to watch

Blue Jays at Yankees: There is an expected 19 mph wind blowing out toward right field.

Mets at Cubs: There is an expected 18 mph wind blowing across the diamond from third toward first.

Padres at Rockies: There is an expected 11 mph wind blowing in from left center field.

White Sox at Red Sox: There is an expected 20 mph wind blowing in from center field.

Brewers at Phillies: There is an expected 16 mph wind blowing across the diamond from third toward first.

Rays at Orioles: There is an expected 16 mph wind blowing out toward right center field.

Nationals at Pirates: There is an expected 15 mph wind blowing out toward left center field.

Braves at Marlins: There is a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms.

Who’s hot

The Twins are 52-25 in their past 77 home games.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their past 10 overall.

The over is 8-3 in the Yankees past 11 home games.

Who’s not

The Indians are 2-6 in their past eight as a favorite.

The under is 11-1 in the Rockies past 11 road games.

The under is 7-2-1 in the Red Sox past 10 games overall.

Key stat

7: Wins in eight games ATS as an under-dog last year by Southern Methodist coach June Jones. That impressive record is indication he is helping the Mustangs rebuild and are a frisky pick at +13.5 for Sunday afternoon’s tilt.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

It’s not the dreaded “dead arm,” but we are getting into dangerously close territory for Twins pitcher Scott Baker. The hurler is again ailing as he will miss his next start after getting yanked from Thursday’s game against the Tigers with pain in his right elbow. Baker is a solid 12-9 this year with a 4.60 ERA. This normally would just be a hiccup, but the Twins used a pair of starters out of the bullpen earlier this week, started a rookie on Friday and had to drain their relievers even more by filling in for the final seven innings of Baker’s start against Detroit. Even worse recently acquired reliever Brian Fuentes will miss at least two days with a bad back. Keep a close eye on the hurlers in Minnesota.

Game of the Day

Connecticut Huskies at Michigan Wolverines (-3, 52)

Notable quotes

"As soon as we come off vacation, we're going to cook that little yellow chump. We ain't worried about that. So they ain't gotta worry about me fighting the midget. Once I kick the midget ass, I don't want you all to jump on my d---. So you all better get on the bandwagon now. ... Once I stomp the midget, I'll make that mother f----- make me a sushi roll and cook me some rice." – Floyd Mayweather on fighting Manny Pacquiao.

Tips and notes

Want to know how Kansas State went from a 3-point underdog to a 1.5-point fave against UCLA the past six weeks? Try a torn back muscle for Bruins quarterback Kevin Prince and a banged-up offensive line that is in shambles. Starting center Kai Maiava has a fractured ankle and is out. Guard Jeff Baca has a broken food. Right tackle Mike Harris is suspended for academic issues. Good luck blocking anyone in Manhattan. "This is really upsetting, to be honest with you," sophomore quarterback Kevin Prince said. "Kai is the anchor of the offensive line. Without him, we'll be OK, but it won’t be the same. He brought the mentality you like to have, that dominating mentality. He's experienced. We're going to miss him."

If you can find a line for the Eastern Illinois-Iowa game on Saturday, you might find some hidden value. The Panthers have made the FCS playoffs seven of the past 10 years and are a consistent top 25 team. Don’t forget the near-disastrous loss to Northern Iowa that the Hawkeyes narrowly avoided with two blocked field goals at the horn last year. The Panthers aren’t quite on the same level as Northern Iowa, but the Hawkeyes will be without suspended starting defensive end Broderick Binns and running back Jewel Hampton. Now also missing the game are junior offensive guard Adam Gettis, junior cornerback Shaun Prater and senior kicker Daniel Murray due to injury. Start trying to find some action already.

Why can’t Zach Johnson win the Deutsche Bank Championship? Expected 50 mph gusting winds never showed up in Massachusetts on late Friday, setting the stage for beautiful weather and allowing the up-and-coming American to surge to the front of the pack and tie Jason day for the lead at 8-under par. The key for Johnson has been his ability to start consistently putting himself in position to make puts – he entered the weekend ranked an abysmal 111th on tour for the season by hitting a meager 66.2 percent of the greens in regulation. Head-to-head he is listed at just -130 against Justin Rose and a great value.
 

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Valentino

Anyone seen bob valention 30 dime uconn at mich


MICHIGAN

I'm on the other side. May the better capper win even though I respect his opinion. That's why I bought it and figured I'd share it. No reason to let it go to waste but I'm still on the Huskies. Take care everybody!
 

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Salvatore Devito Facebook Page

Early NCAA

3* ILLINOIS +12

Record
10* 0-0
5* 0-0
4* 0-0
3* 1-1 -.3units Best of Luck Sal
 

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Sports Betting Professor New Reload System
As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's NCAA Picks:
2 PM EST

Memphis +21*

8 PM EST

North Carolina +8*

3:30 PM

Kansas St. -1.5

7 PM

BYU -2

Oregon St. +14

10 PM

Fresno St. -2

Good luck!

Rich


Correction:

An alert client pointed out there is a time change on the Memphis vs. Mississippi St. game. Sports Insights is still showing it as a 2 PM start but most other outlets are showing it as a 7 PM start. Since we can only have one * game going at a time, that means we have a correction.

Memphis +21 is still an * play but there is a game before that at 3:30 that will be our first A bet.

Kansas St. -1.5* is the first A bet. If Kansas St. wins then Memphis +21 is another A bet. If Kansas St. does not cover then Memphis +21 is a B bet.

The rest of the bets are:

North Carolina +8
BYU -2
Oregon St. +14
Fresno St. -2
 

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