David Malinsky
4* EASTERN MICHIGAN over MIAMI O.
Let’s establish some perspective here. Miami O. is 3-22 SU the last 2+ seasons, with one of the wins coming in an unlined game vs. Charleston Southern. The other two wins both came by seven points. In their lined games in that stretch the RedHawks averaged 15.9 points per game. In 2009 they were #116 (of 120 teams) in the nation in scoring offense, #119 in rushing offense, #120 in sacks allowed, #104 in passing efficiency, #120 in kickoff returns, #118 in net punting, and #113 in sacks recorded by the defense. In 2008 it was #107 in scoring offense, #101 in rushing offense, #101 in passing efficiency (note back-to-back seasons of rating worse than 100th in both rushing offense and passing efficiency, an awful daily-double), #106 in rushing defense, #108 in pass efficiency defense, #101 in scoring defense and #108 in defensive sacks. Yet suddenly this team is favored by more than their scoring average of the last 2+ seasons. And for further perspective, the 5th year SR’s on the Miami roster have played 33 MAC games in their career, and have won one of them by more than seven points.
So what is going on here? Why is a young team (only five SR starters) bereft of big-play ability, or the actual experience of winning games, elevated to this point? Largely because of a result at Florida on Saturday that we do not believe means all that much in terms of upgrading Michael Haywood’s team. The Gators were remarkably sloppy that day, letting the ball touch the ground nine times via either a fumble (Miami O. recovered three of them), or a bad snap. So perhaps we give the RedHawks some credit for hanging tough and competing on defense. But do we elevate an offense that did not score a TD, and managed only 212 yards in 68 snaps, including four INT’s? Absolutely not.
So what are we left with? A favorite that lacks the talent, swagger or confidence to get anything easily, and one that is not looking to go for the jugular here anyway. When you are so bereft of wins, you do not possess a killer instinct, and if anything the failure to win games in the past often makes for outstanding situations to buck bad teams when they are big chalk. There is such a tendency by the coaches to go conservatively to try to hang on and gut the game out, because they are so rarely playing with a lead, that they play right into the hands of the underdog from an ATS standpoint.
So Miami is a bad team that was handed a lot of gifts last week yet still lost by 22 points, and now lays major wood here despite not having appreciable edges in size, speed or overall talent. So can we trust this underdog? Absolutely, vs. this class, and especially at this tempo. Ron English has made a concerted focus to improve the Eagle ground game in his second season, and we saw immediate dividends paid vs. Army last week – both QB Alex Gillett and RB Dwayne Priest ran for over 100 yards, part of a 285 at 5.6 per carry they generated as a team, and they held the lead until the Black Knights scored with 0:38 remaining to escape 31-27. Eastern may not be talented, but the Eagles played hard, and smart, in that game, not being flagged for a single penalty. So if we get a big underdog that is going to run the ball to slow the game flow, vs. a favorite that lacks the big-play ability to score quickly or easily, this becomes a mountain of a pointspread to climb, and this particular favorite is not accustomed to that altitude at all.