Joe Gavazzi Saturday, August 3rd MLB
Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Detroit (Scherzer) (-1 ½ runs -130) 7:05 ET
4% Detroit (Scherzer) (-1 ½ runs -130)
Go to our website WSA Sports Picks to read the article “Dog Days of Summer and the MLB Run Line”. You will see why it is absolutely critical to have these run lines handy if you are wagering any MLB in the month of August. This is an example of 2 teams going opposite directions with home-standing Super-Surging Detroit hosting Towel Tossing CWS. Yet because the line maker has reflected the divergence in these teams, it is important to know when or when not to play the run line. CWS enters on negative runs of 16-43, 1-11 and 0-8. Detroit is on runs of 19-7, 10-1 and 6-0. Detroit has won 10/11 recent home games, 9/10 of those wins were by 2 or more runs. On the mound it is ana equal mismatch. For the year, Scherzer is 15-1 with a 3.01 ERA, 164/31KBB and a 0.92 WHIP. Detroit has won 8/10 Scherzer starts by 2 or more runs. The Tigers provide Scherzer with an average of 7.6 run support, best in MLB. Against CWS recently, Scherzer is 3-0 allowing 3 runs on 12 hits with 21 Ks in 22 IP. Detroit has won 9/11 Scherzer home starts. Danks is 2-8 for the year with a 4.57 ERA. In his last 5 starts, Danks is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA. On the road, CWS is 1-6 in Danks starts where he has a 5.36 ERA. Finally in his last 4 starts vs. Detroit, Danks has an 11.90 ERA. Run line players take note: the Tigers are among the best in baseball at blowouts, 51/2 victories including 29/35 on this field have been by 2 or more runs. Detroit run line!
LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-115) at Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) 4:05 ET
4% LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-115)
There are minor concerns with the fact that the Cubs are 12-5/loss recently and that Samardzija has returned to form with a 1.80 ERA L3 starts. But the Cubs are just 4-6 at home in Samardzija starts where he has a 5.46 ERA. And the Cubs, after a 19-13 run up, have gone 1-5 of late settling in with the reality of their negative net return at the trade deadline. Nobody is hotter than the Dodgers. LAD enters tonight on runs of 29-7, 12-2 winners of 12 straight road games. Though Capuano has been spotty the entire season, he has a rock solid 54/16 KBB. Capuano also allowed just 3 base runners in 6 2/3 IP of his most recent start vs. the Reds. And Capuano has owned the Cubs with a record of 7-0 and 1.55 ERA in his L9 starts against them. Run line players take note: 23/28 Dodger road wins have been by 2 or more runs a situation which will provide you with a healthy underdog price should you choose to play part of your wager on the run line.
St. Louis (Westbrook) at Cincinnati (Cingrani) (-155) 7:10 ET
3% Cincinnati (Cingrani) (-155)
We lay the double nickel in one of the most contrary favorite plays of the day. The public figures to be all over the Cards in this after they snapped their 0-7 run by scoring 26 runs the last 2 nights to defeat the Pirates and the Reds. Meanwhile, Cincinnati continues to struggle on a 1-6 slide in which they have totaled 12 runs with a .178 BA. But knowing that the Cards are just 16-23 vs. winning teams and that the Reds are MLB’s best 15-2 home/loss has me eager to back the Reds with a favoring pitching mismatch. Since returning to the rotation, Cingrani has a 2.03 ERA, a .163 OBA recording 33 Ks of 30 1/3 IP in 5 starts. The sinker ball of Westbrook has yielded far better returns at home than on the road. St. Louis has won just 3/8 Westbrook road starts where he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. That was in evidence in his most recent outing, a 9-2 loss at Pittsburgh in which he allowed 4 runs on his 1st 15 pitches. Must beware of any pitcher who has a 34/36 inverted KBB for the season.
Texas (Garza) at Oakland (Parker) (-120) 4:05 ET
3% Texas (Garza) (+110)
Recent dichotomous runs show Texas going 24-32 and Oakland going 43-21. That resulted in a 6 game Division lead for the As. But all that has recently turned around. Of late, Oakland has lost 3 consecutive games scoring a total of 5 runs. Texas has won 5 straight averaging 7 RPG to pull within 2 ½ games of Oakland for the Division lead. Though Parker does have a solid history vs. the Rangers, he has not pitched well from this mound this season. The As are 6-5 in his 11 starts where he has a 4.81 ERA. Parker is off a 10-6 loss to LAA in which he allowed 6 runs in 7 IP with a most disturbing 3/7 KBB. In his last 8 starts (6 with the Cubs, 2 with Texas), Garza has a 1.40 ERA. He has pitched well on the road with a 2.23 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Garza has proven he knows how to win with a 7-1 record, 2.95 ERA and solid peripherals of 73/23 KBB and 1.10 WHIP.
Cleveland (McAllister) (-130) at Miami (Turner) 7:10 ET
3% Miami (Turner) (+120)
Miami has been a different team since adding pop to their lineup with the return of their best bats Stanton and Morrison. They are on positive runs of 27-21 and 8-4 to pull within 1 game of playing .400 ball. Last night, they snapped the Cleveland 8-0 winning streak with a 10-0 victory. That sent the Tribe to a recent record of 2-7 away. It will be no surprise if Miami pitching limits Cleveland again tonight. Miami has allowed 2 or less runs in 14/17 recent games. Turner has been among the starters who has pitched that surprising brand of baseball. In fact, Turner has allowed 3 or less runs in 10/11 starts. Miami has won all 4 of his starts from this mound where he has posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. That is far dichotomous to the road record of McAllister who has a road ERA of 4.36, a 1.73 WHIP with Cleveland winning just 2/6 of his road starts. Wrong team favored!
Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Detroit (Scherzer) (-1 ½ runs -130) 7:05 ET
4% Detroit (Scherzer) (-1 ½ runs -130)
Go to our website WSA Sports Picks to read the article “Dog Days of Summer and the MLB Run Line”. You will see why it is absolutely critical to have these run lines handy if you are wagering any MLB in the month of August. This is an example of 2 teams going opposite directions with home-standing Super-Surging Detroit hosting Towel Tossing CWS. Yet because the line maker has reflected the divergence in these teams, it is important to know when or when not to play the run line. CWS enters on negative runs of 16-43, 1-11 and 0-8. Detroit is on runs of 19-7, 10-1 and 6-0. Detroit has won 10/11 recent home games, 9/10 of those wins were by 2 or more runs. On the mound it is ana equal mismatch. For the year, Scherzer is 15-1 with a 3.01 ERA, 164/31KBB and a 0.92 WHIP. Detroit has won 8/10 Scherzer starts by 2 or more runs. The Tigers provide Scherzer with an average of 7.6 run support, best in MLB. Against CWS recently, Scherzer is 3-0 allowing 3 runs on 12 hits with 21 Ks in 22 IP. Detroit has won 9/11 Scherzer home starts. Danks is 2-8 for the year with a 4.57 ERA. In his last 5 starts, Danks is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA. On the road, CWS is 1-6 in Danks starts where he has a 5.36 ERA. Finally in his last 4 starts vs. Detroit, Danks has an 11.90 ERA. Run line players take note: the Tigers are among the best in baseball at blowouts, 51/2 victories including 29/35 on this field have been by 2 or more runs. Detroit run line!
LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-115) at Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) 4:05 ET
4% LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-115)
There are minor concerns with the fact that the Cubs are 12-5/loss recently and that Samardzija has returned to form with a 1.80 ERA L3 starts. But the Cubs are just 4-6 at home in Samardzija starts where he has a 5.46 ERA. And the Cubs, after a 19-13 run up, have gone 1-5 of late settling in with the reality of their negative net return at the trade deadline. Nobody is hotter than the Dodgers. LAD enters tonight on runs of 29-7, 12-2 winners of 12 straight road games. Though Capuano has been spotty the entire season, he has a rock solid 54/16 KBB. Capuano also allowed just 3 base runners in 6 2/3 IP of his most recent start vs. the Reds. And Capuano has owned the Cubs with a record of 7-0 and 1.55 ERA in his L9 starts against them. Run line players take note: 23/28 Dodger road wins have been by 2 or more runs a situation which will provide you with a healthy underdog price should you choose to play part of your wager on the run line.
St. Louis (Westbrook) at Cincinnati (Cingrani) (-155) 7:10 ET
3% Cincinnati (Cingrani) (-155)
We lay the double nickel in one of the most contrary favorite plays of the day. The public figures to be all over the Cards in this after they snapped their 0-7 run by scoring 26 runs the last 2 nights to defeat the Pirates and the Reds. Meanwhile, Cincinnati continues to struggle on a 1-6 slide in which they have totaled 12 runs with a .178 BA. But knowing that the Cards are just 16-23 vs. winning teams and that the Reds are MLB’s best 15-2 home/loss has me eager to back the Reds with a favoring pitching mismatch. Since returning to the rotation, Cingrani has a 2.03 ERA, a .163 OBA recording 33 Ks of 30 1/3 IP in 5 starts. The sinker ball of Westbrook has yielded far better returns at home than on the road. St. Louis has won just 3/8 Westbrook road starts where he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. That was in evidence in his most recent outing, a 9-2 loss at Pittsburgh in which he allowed 4 runs on his 1st 15 pitches. Must beware of any pitcher who has a 34/36 inverted KBB for the season.
Texas (Garza) at Oakland (Parker) (-120) 4:05 ET
3% Texas (Garza) (+110)
Recent dichotomous runs show Texas going 24-32 and Oakland going 43-21. That resulted in a 6 game Division lead for the As. But all that has recently turned around. Of late, Oakland has lost 3 consecutive games scoring a total of 5 runs. Texas has won 5 straight averaging 7 RPG to pull within 2 ½ games of Oakland for the Division lead. Though Parker does have a solid history vs. the Rangers, he has not pitched well from this mound this season. The As are 6-5 in his 11 starts where he has a 4.81 ERA. Parker is off a 10-6 loss to LAA in which he allowed 6 runs in 7 IP with a most disturbing 3/7 KBB. In his last 8 starts (6 with the Cubs, 2 with Texas), Garza has a 1.40 ERA. He has pitched well on the road with a 2.23 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Garza has proven he knows how to win with a 7-1 record, 2.95 ERA and solid peripherals of 73/23 KBB and 1.10 WHIP.
Cleveland (McAllister) (-130) at Miami (Turner) 7:10 ET
3% Miami (Turner) (+120)
Miami has been a different team since adding pop to their lineup with the return of their best bats Stanton and Morrison. They are on positive runs of 27-21 and 8-4 to pull within 1 game of playing .400 ball. Last night, they snapped the Cleveland 8-0 winning streak with a 10-0 victory. That sent the Tribe to a recent record of 2-7 away. It will be no surprise if Miami pitching limits Cleveland again tonight. Miami has allowed 2 or less runs in 14/17 recent games. Turner has been among the starters who has pitched that surprising brand of baseball. In fact, Turner has allowed 3 or less runs in 10/11 starts. Miami has won all 4 of his starts from this mound where he has posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. That is far dichotomous to the road record of McAllister who has a road ERA of 4.36, a 1.73 WHIP with Cleveland winning just 2/6 of his road starts. Wrong team favored!
Dave Essler MLB Money Line Sat, 08/03/13 - 4:05 PM
double-dime bet - 903 LOS (-115) vs 904 CHC
Analysis: I gotta do it. Samardzija has been terrible at home. The Dodgers are 7-1 as slight road favorites this season. They're over .500 on the road, have clearly the better bullpen, the better hitters, and the only thing in their way is Samardzija, who most of the Dodgers have seen and hit. Just cannot over-think this one too much, win or lose.
** The Royals, if you like road favorites, are probably winners. David Wright is out.
** The Yankees are probably winners, too. Too much movement too early to ignore in that one.
** I also think Haren pitches well and the Nationals are winners. But, again, road favorites.
double-dime bet - 903 LOS (-115) vs 904 CHC
Analysis: I gotta do it. Samardzija has been terrible at home. The Dodgers are 7-1 as slight road favorites this season. They're over .500 on the road, have clearly the better bullpen, the better hitters, and the only thing in their way is Samardzija, who most of the Dodgers have seen and hit. Just cannot over-think this one too much, win or lose.
** The Royals, if you like road favorites, are probably winners. David Wright is out.
** The Yankees are probably winners, too. Too much movement too early to ignore in that one.
** I also think Haren pitches well and the Nationals are winners. But, again, road favorites.
GC: MLB Power System play
Saturday MLB Top Play is a 6* Selection from 2 Perfect systems, one is a Blowout system that Wins by an average 5 runs, there are also a Pair of totals systems, one is 15-1 the other has not lost at all going back to 2004, MLB Sides Cash Big on Friday. NFL Early Bird Packs up too. MLB Power System Play below.
On Saturday the MLB Power system Play is on Baltimore. Game 914 at 7:05 eastern. We will Play the run line at -1.5 here as the line is a bit high. Baltimore does qualify in a solid 20-3 system here tonight. We want to play on certain home favorites off a home win by 2+ runs while scoring 10 or more and taking on an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs while scoring 5+ runs. Baltimore has won 7 straight here in the series. Seattle has been getting killed with a Leak Bullpen with a road era approaching 6 on the season. They have lost 4 straight and have Ramirez and his 7.71 era making his first start on the road. He may struggle with this tough Orioles Lineup. Baltimore has S. Feldman going and he has been decent since arriving in a trade. Look for Baltimore to coast to another Win. On Saturday we have Another Big Bases card led by a 6* MLB Double Perfect Blowout system and 2 Powerful totals systems that are Perfect and 100% The Last 10 seasons. MLB Sides cash big On Friday. NFL Early Bird packs up as well. Jump on and cash out on Saturday. For the Bonus Play take Baltimore. GC
Saturday MLB Top Play is a 6* Selection from 2 Perfect systems, one is a Blowout system that Wins by an average 5 runs, there are also a Pair of totals systems, one is 15-1 the other has not lost at all going back to 2004, MLB Sides Cash Big on Friday. NFL Early Bird Packs up too. MLB Power System Play below.
On Saturday the MLB Power system Play is on Baltimore. Game 914 at 7:05 eastern. We will Play the run line at -1.5 here as the line is a bit high. Baltimore does qualify in a solid 20-3 system here tonight. We want to play on certain home favorites off a home win by 2+ runs while scoring 10 or more and taking on an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs while scoring 5+ runs. Baltimore has won 7 straight here in the series. Seattle has been getting killed with a Leak Bullpen with a road era approaching 6 on the season. They have lost 4 straight and have Ramirez and his 7.71 era making his first start on the road. He may struggle with this tough Orioles Lineup. Baltimore has S. Feldman going and he has been decent since arriving in a trade. Look for Baltimore to coast to another Win. On Saturday we have Another Big Bases card led by a 6* MLB Double Perfect Blowout system and 2 Powerful totals systems that are Perfect and 100% The Last 10 seasons. MLB Sides cash big On Friday. NFL Early Bird packs up as well. Jump on and cash out on Saturday. For the Bonus Play take Baltimore. GC
Chance Lockwood Plays and Daily Chance
Premium Selections:
Take Texas Rangers +110 vs Oakland Athletics
Take Detroit Tigers Run Line -125 vs Chicago White Sox
Daily Chance Card:
Atlanta -143
Texas +105
La Dodgers-119
Rockies +180
Baltimore -172
Detroit Run Line -125
Milwaukee +123
Cleveland -129
Tampa -230
St Louis +147
Astros +140
Arizona +137
Yankees -115
Angels -170
Premium Selections:
Take Texas Rangers +110 vs Oakland Athletics
Take Detroit Tigers Run Line -125 vs Chicago White Sox
Daily Chance Card:
Atlanta -143
Texas +105
La Dodgers-119
Rockies +180
Baltimore -172
Detroit Run Line -125
Milwaukee +123
Cleveland -129
Tampa -230
St Louis +147
Astros +140
Arizona +137
Yankees -115
Angels -170
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
MLB HOUSTON at MINNESOTA
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start
199-92 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 67.8 units )
35-21 this year. ( 62.5% 5.6 units )
MLB HOUSTON at MINNESOTA
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start
199-92 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 67.8 units )
35-21 this year. ( 62.5% 5.6 units )
