SAM CLAYTON
2 UNITS SF GIANTS -145
Say what you will about this being a popular play, but I'll gladly pull the trigger in this situation AGAINST Daniel Hudson, a young pitcher I've followed very closely since his MLB debut in Chicago last season. Hudson has shined bright since switching over to the Senior Circuit, but he hasn't exactly beaten a potent offense. The righthander topped the Mets, Padres and Brewers (sans Braun and Hart). Not exactly the cream of the crop. I would go as far as saying Hudson hasn't had a REAL road test all season long and he's about to be thrown into the lions' den against the Giants. Albeit they were shutout yesterday in what looked like a hangover from a dayoff, San Francisco has been tearing the cover off the ball, scoring 38 runs in the previous three games. Hudson throws a very hittable ball and he pitches to contact, something the lefthanded bats of Torres, Huff, Sandoval and Ishakawa will be ready for. Plus, Buster Posey remains red hot as does Juan Uribe. Barry Zito has been a little shaky as of late, but he's been away from home cooking for a long while. The southpaw returns to the Bay Area where he's 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA, not to mention in the middle of a playoff race toward the NL Wild Card. The Giants have the revenge and motivation factors in their favor and while Barry Enright kept them down Friday, Hudson is a similar pitcher with a very similar gameplan. The San Fran sticks will wake up.
2 UNITS SF GIANTS -145
Say what you will about this being a popular play, but I'll gladly pull the trigger in this situation AGAINST Daniel Hudson, a young pitcher I've followed very closely since his MLB debut in Chicago last season. Hudson has shined bright since switching over to the Senior Circuit, but he hasn't exactly beaten a potent offense. The righthander topped the Mets, Padres and Brewers (sans Braun and Hart). Not exactly the cream of the crop. I would go as far as saying Hudson hasn't had a REAL road test all season long and he's about to be thrown into the lions' den against the Giants. Albeit they were shutout yesterday in what looked like a hangover from a dayoff, San Francisco has been tearing the cover off the ball, scoring 38 runs in the previous three games. Hudson throws a very hittable ball and he pitches to contact, something the lefthanded bats of Torres, Huff, Sandoval and Ishakawa will be ready for. Plus, Buster Posey remains red hot as does Juan Uribe. Barry Zito has been a little shaky as of late, but he's been away from home cooking for a long while. The southpaw returns to the Bay Area where he's 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA, not to mention in the middle of a playoff race toward the NL Wild Card. The Giants have the revenge and motivation factors in their favor and while Barry Enright kept them down Friday, Hudson is a similar pitcher with a very similar gameplan. The San Fran sticks will wake up.
BOB BALFE
Philadelphia Phillies +120
The Phillies almost blew a great outing by Oswalt last night, but came back in extra innings which had to deflate the Padres. They now are back on top of the wildcard standings and the pressure is on the Braves to maintain their two game lead over Philly in the NL East. The Phillies have won 16 out of the last 17 when playing the Padres on the road. Look for the Phillies' bats to get back on track today. Take Philadelphia.
Detroit Lions -2.5
Detroit has a lot of young, talented players that will be starters this season. It is crucial to get these guys reps tonight against a very beatable opponent. The Lions are going to turn some heads on offense in 2010 and I believe their defense will be much improved as well. Take Detroit at home.
Minnesota Vikings -5
Seattle has a huge problem at offensive line and they will want to make sure they don’t get Hasselbeck hurt on this turf in a game that means nothing. Brett Favre will play a little bit longer tonight, but this game will be won by the Vikings defense as they should shut down the run and not allow Seattle any time to throw the ball. Take Minnesota.
Philadelphia Phillies +120
The Phillies almost blew a great outing by Oswalt last night, but came back in extra innings which had to deflate the Padres. They now are back on top of the wildcard standings and the pressure is on the Braves to maintain their two game lead over Philly in the NL East. The Phillies have won 16 out of the last 17 when playing the Padres on the road. Look for the Phillies' bats to get back on track today. Take Philadelphia.
Detroit Lions -2.5
Detroit has a lot of young, talented players that will be starters this season. It is crucial to get these guys reps tonight against a very beatable opponent. The Lions are going to turn some heads on offense in 2010 and I believe their defense will be much improved as well. Take Detroit at home.
Minnesota Vikings -5
Seattle has a huge problem at offensive line and they will want to make sure they don’t get Hasselbeck hurt on this turf in a game that means nothing. Brett Favre will play a little bit longer tonight, but this game will be won by the Vikings defense as they should shut down the run and not allow Seattle any time to throw the ball. Take Minnesota.
THE DUKE SPORTS
Minnesota Over (8) for 3 Units
Both of these starters are struggling through the season and we expect the respective lineups to take advantage of them. Blackburn started the season strong but was never the same after he got lit up in Seattle back on June 1st. He also controls a lofty 7.51 ERA in daytime action this season. Fister, on the other hand, has had problems with Minnesota this season; he sports a bloated 4.97 ERA in two starts vs them and gave up home runs to 5 different Twins. The Mariners are 4-1 O/U following a quality start by Fister in his last appearance. Seattle is also 6-2 O/U in this 'total' range. Minnesota, however, is 7-1-1 O/U in their last 9 road favorite roles and 5-2-1 O/U in this 'total' range with Blackburn. "Over" the call.
Minnesota Over (8) for 3 Units
Both of these starters are struggling through the season and we expect the respective lineups to take advantage of them. Blackburn started the season strong but was never the same after he got lit up in Seattle back on June 1st. He also controls a lofty 7.51 ERA in daytime action this season. Fister, on the other hand, has had problems with Minnesota this season; he sports a bloated 4.97 ERA in two starts vs them and gave up home runs to 5 different Twins. The Mariners are 4-1 O/U following a quality start by Fister in his last appearance. Seattle is also 6-2 O/U in this 'total' range. Minnesota, however, is 7-1-1 O/U in their last 9 road favorite roles and 5-2-1 O/U in this 'total' range with Blackburn. "Over" the call.
DAVE MALINSKY
4* DALLAS over HOUSTON
We have no problem taking a sauna here, with so much steam created on the Texans early today that there is outstanding value to go the other way. Yes, 0-2 teams playing at home have been decent pointspread propositions in the pre-season in the past, but only up to the point at which the natural market corrections take place. As such, consider what we are looking at tonight –
The Cowboys plan to play their starters as long as the Texans, both going into the third quarter. And Dallas is deeper. So the personnel realities make this similar to a regular-season game. So now for the contrast – while Houston is solidly in the -5 range now for this one, in two weeks we already see the Texans as +2 on this field vs. the Colts in key precincts, when they start playing for real. That creates an idea of how over-adjusted this one is.
Houston has a first-rate passing game, but the Texans are not in the NFL’s elite in the other key areas, especially in terms of toughness and depth. We saw evidence of the latter in last week’s ugly 38-20 loss at New Orleans, when the Saints rambled for 198 rushing yards. And two weeks ago the second-unit defense gave away a win at Arizona. So yes, there may be a stated focus here to make amends for those embarrassments, but while the sound bytes have led to a gold rush to the windows in the morning markets, the reality is that they are the weaker team in this matchup and do not bring the kind of control to simply go out and get what they want. And Gary Kubiak has already tried to take some pressure off of this scoreboard result - "Winning is always important, hell, that's why we play, but as I said all along you got to keep in perspective all the people you're playing, too."
The Dallas defense has a chance to be the NFL’s best this season, only allowing one score in the first half through three pre-season games. Wade Phillips put them through a lighter practice week than usual to keep them fresh for this one, and with his starters on the field as long as the Texan starters, and a better reserve cast, it would be no surprise for the Cowboys to get the outright win, with the generous line being offered a nice cushion.
4* DALLAS over HOUSTON
We have no problem taking a sauna here, with so much steam created on the Texans early today that there is outstanding value to go the other way. Yes, 0-2 teams playing at home have been decent pointspread propositions in the pre-season in the past, but only up to the point at which the natural market corrections take place. As such, consider what we are looking at tonight –
The Cowboys plan to play their starters as long as the Texans, both going into the third quarter. And Dallas is deeper. So the personnel realities make this similar to a regular-season game. So now for the contrast – while Houston is solidly in the -5 range now for this one, in two weeks we already see the Texans as +2 on this field vs. the Colts in key precincts, when they start playing for real. That creates an idea of how over-adjusted this one is.
Houston has a first-rate passing game, but the Texans are not in the NFL’s elite in the other key areas, especially in terms of toughness and depth. We saw evidence of the latter in last week’s ugly 38-20 loss at New Orleans, when the Saints rambled for 198 rushing yards. And two weeks ago the second-unit defense gave away a win at Arizona. So yes, there may be a stated focus here to make amends for those embarrassments, but while the sound bytes have led to a gold rush to the windows in the morning markets, the reality is that they are the weaker team in this matchup and do not bring the kind of control to simply go out and get what they want. And Gary Kubiak has already tried to take some pressure off of this scoreboard result - "Winning is always important, hell, that's why we play, but as I said all along you got to keep in perspective all the people you're playing, too."
The Dallas defense has a chance to be the NFL’s best this season, only allowing one score in the first half through three pre-season games. Wade Phillips put them through a lighter practice week than usual to keep them fresh for this one, and with his starters on the field as long as the Texan starters, and a better reserve cast, it would be no surprise for the Cowboys to get the outright win, with the generous line being offered a nice cushion.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +1.38 over TEXAS
This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLE
Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +6 over Saskatchewan
The Eskies have been ripe for the pickings all season long and this one could be no different. Still, laying points on the road in this league has been a bankroll killer all year and it’s for that reason that doing so cannot be recommended. The Esks are down and out but they still have some talented players and the Riders have shown enough flaws this year to warrant going against them. Play: Edmonton +6 (No bets).
Oakland +1.38 over TEXAS
This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLE
Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +6 over Saskatchewan
The Eskies have been ripe for the pickings all season long and this one could be no different. Still, laying points on the road in this league has been a bankroll killer all year and it’s for that reason that doing so cannot be recommended. The Esks are down and out but they still have some talented players and the Riders have shown enough flaws this year to warrant going against them. Play: Edmonton +6 (No bets).
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-August 28th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[902] Atlanta |8*|-180|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[904] San Diego |8*|-124|B+0|FOX|4:10 pm EST
note*
Major League Baseball Premiums
2010 (-10.93) Units| In season |
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[902] Atlanta |8*|-180|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[904] San Diego |8*|-124|B+0|FOX|4:10 pm EST
note*
Major League Baseball Premiums
2010 (-10.93) Units| In season |
Syndicate Sharps (Elitecapperspicks)
nfl saturday: (4 "members picks")
6:30pm:*5*nfl buffalo bills +3 (-110)
6:30pm:*5* buffalo bills -ml (+140)
8:30pm:*5* arizona/bears over 38.5 (-110)
9:00pm:*5* oakland raiders -ml (-118)
mlb saturday
6 “members picks”)
4:10pm:*5* padres/phillies over 7.5 (-120)
7:10pm:*5* ny mets -ml (-169)
7:10pm:*5* boston red sox -ml (+130)
8:10pm:*5* la dodgers -ml (+117)
9:05pm:*5* sf giants -m(-142)
9:05pm:*5* la angels -rl -1.5 (+125)
nfl saturday: (4 "members picks")
6:30pm:*5*nfl buffalo bills +3 (-110)
6:30pm:*5* buffalo bills -ml (+140)
8:30pm:*5* arizona/bears over 38.5 (-110)
9:00pm:*5* oakland raiders -ml (-118)
mlb saturday
6 “members picks”)4:10pm:*5* padres/phillies over 7.5 (-120)
7:10pm:*5* ny mets -ml (-169)
7:10pm:*5* boston red sox -ml (+130)
8:10pm:*5* la dodgers -ml (+117)
9:05pm:*5* sf giants -m(-142)
9:05pm:*5* la angels -rl -1.5 (+125)
