Cajun-Sports NFLX Late Phone Selection
3* Cleveland Browns +3 over Detroit Lions
The Browns make the short trip to take on the Lions in the third preseason game for both teams Saturday afternoon. Quarterback Derek Anderson will likely miss the game due to a concussion suffered in Monday's loss to the Giants. That means second-year-pro Brady Quinn will make his first start of any kind on Saturday. Quinn has had a strong training camp to date and has completed 20-of-29 passes for 257 yards with a touchdown and an interception in 2 preseason games.
Detroit will be attempting to continue the positive momentum they've accrued in preseason wins over the Giants and Bengals. Lions starting quarterback Jon Kitna has played well, but still at issue for the Lions is the starting running back job.
After their "pantsing" Cleveland received on national television last Monday, the last practice before today's Detroit game was much crisper. Frequent team meetings on the field were devoted to small lapses. We expect a much better effort here from the Browns, as we often look to play ON a team off a poor performance by its 1st and 2nd-stringers. If a veteran unit was dominated by its counterpart in the previous game, there’s a good chance they will have a fire lit under them.
We also like to play ON a coach with a goal of winning the game. Some coaches do not care if they lose a preseason game, while some coaches hate to lose any game at all – even exhibition games. The third exhibition game is a dress rehearsal for the regular season. "It's always important to win," said Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel, meaning any game any time.
Following Detroit's easy win at Cincinnati, we have the opportunity here to play AGAINST a team relaxed off a win and not concerned about another victory. Usually, a win in the preseason allows a coach to feel zero pressure the following week, and he can look at players. Generally, teams are weaker ATS after a win, and it intensifies with streaks.
Off 2 NFLX wins, the Lions are certainly relaxed to the point where they are planning on sticking to the normal preseason "script". While some head coaches like to play their starters for the entire first half and even into the third quarter during the third preseason game, head coach Marinelli has a different plan. The bulk of his starters only will be on the field for about 25 snaps (about a quarter and a half) while some key players, such as Kitna and wide receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, might get pulled before the end of the first quarter.
"I want to protect these players a little bit, too. The longer they go, the better chance of an injury,'' said Marinelli, adding that he'll do some rotating with the first unit. "We want to get as many guys as we feel are competing for those jobs and rotate them with the first group. I want to look at them all -- against their starters -- to get a better evaluation.''
This will certainly favor the visitors here, who don't quite have that luxury, especially off last week's disastrous showing by Cleveland's starters. Crennel and the Brownies have been at their best as an underdog, going 7-1 ATS as a preseason dog, while Detroit is 0-6-1 ATS as a practice favorite, creating a strong trend dichotomy in Cleveland's favor.
Also of note, the Browns are 4-0 ATS in their 3rd preseason game and 4-0 SU & ATS in their second preseason road game. Meanwhile, the Lions are 0-4 ATS in their second exhibition home game and an ugly 1-10 ATS in Game 3.
We expect another strong outing here from Brady, as he and his team should get off to a strong start and finish with a SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: CLEVELAND BY 3 OVER DETROIT
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