SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Seattle @ BALTIMORE
Seattle +102 over BALTIMORE
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
Some things just defy logic and a case in point is Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez. Here’s a guy with a 3.77 ERA after 18 starts but his WHIP of 1.42 does not come close to supporting that ERA. And it’s not like Gonzalez can get out of jams on his own. He has just 77 K’s in 103 innings while issuing 38 walks. The reason he’s been able to keep his ERA in check is due to a very lucky 80% strand rate. Over his last five starts covering 30 innings, Gonzalez has a strand rate of 93%. No other pitcher in the majors has a 93% strand rate or higher over a five-game stretch. You would assume that he’s been helped by double plays but that’s not true either, as Gonzalez is a fly-ball pitcher with a GB/FB split of 38%/42%. His swing and miss rate is 7% overall and 4% over his past six starts. Gonzalez’s xERA of 4.92 reflects pedestrian skills at best. He doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. The under the hood stats scream out that Miguel Gonzalez is one of the worst starters in the league so take this projection seriously.
Not many know about James Paxton but we’re here to tell you that this guy has some of the nastiest stuff you’ll ever see. Paxton come off the DL after getting injured in just his second start of the year way back in April. In his two starts he surrendered just six hits in 12 innings while striking out 13 batters. Last year, Paxton went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings for Seattle after his September call-up. In just 36 major-league innings over his brief career, Paxton has allowed just 24 hits for an oppBA of .164. He’s also 5-0 as a starter in six starts with an ERA of 1.75 and an elite groundball rate of 56%. Paxton features a mid-90s heater, a changeup he'll use anytime and a curve as his out pitch. As a 25-year-old ground-baller with three plus pitches, Paxton offers up so much more value than his mound opponent and he’ll face an Orioles team that is struggling miserably at the plate.
Toronto @ HOUSTON
Toronto -1½ +127 over HOUSTON
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
R.A. Dickey is regaining the form that saw his stock soar back in 2012. Since June 14th, a string of eight starts, he's been able to induce whiffs at a healthy rate with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. However, Dickey had more success in the past inducing weak contact on the ground with his knuckleball-led arsenal rather than aiming for Ks. His groundball rate is down from his glory days but he may have found it again, as his groundball rate has been creeping up since June 14. Dickey certainly hasn't been bad, far from it actually, as he's racked up pure quality starts in every one of his starts since June 14. And the knuckleball velocity that he's relied on for prior success hasn't declined. That said, this one is all about fading Astros lefthander, Brett Oberholtzer.
Oberholtzer is basically a two-pitch pitcher. When we look at successful two-pitch pitchers (see Derek Lowe), they almost always feature a nasty slider but that’s not the case with this stiff. Oberholtzer’s two pitches are of course a fastball (that tops off at 89 MPH) and a changeup. Is it any wonder that he’s spent the majority of the past six years in the minors? In 84 innings, Oberholtzer has just 53 K’s. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is an ugly one at 35%/21%/44%. As a minor-leaguer, Oberholtzer was considered a fringe prospect and he’s done nothing at this level to alter that. Over his last four starts covering 26 innings he has a BB/K split of 6/9. His ERA at Minute Maid is 4.91 with an xERA of 5.47. A soft-tosser with a fly-ball bias profile, Oberholtzer’s chances of a blowup is high against HR hitting teams and the Blue Jays certainly fit that bill.