Dwayne Bryant
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3:55 PM ET
MLB
Atlanta Braves (Hampton) at Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb">
Philadelphia Phillies (Listed Pitchers) RUN LINE -115
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Mike Hampton will make his first major league start since August 2005 as the visiting Braves try to beat the Philadelphia Phillies for just the third time in 11 tries this season. Hampton, a former 22-game winner and two-time All-Star, was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA for Atlanta in 2005, but he left a start against San Diego on Aug. 19 with tightness in his elbow. He had Tommy John surgery six weeks later, and while trying to rehab from that in 2007, tore a flexor tendon in his elbow, shutting him down for the rest of that year. He's had a number of other injuries trying to make his latest comeback - Hampton was scheduled to start April 3 when he strained a pectoral muscle just 10 minutes before he was going to throw the game's first pitch. He aggravated that on a minor league rehab assignment, then strained a groin in a start in Double-A on July 15.
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels has been nearly untouchable against the Braves this season. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA in two games, recording all but one out in a pair of Philadelphia wins. Hamels has been terrific at home, posting a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .255 OOBP at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has also enjoyed 5.86 runs per game of support in his seven day starts this season. The Phillies bats should wake up this afternoon against what should be a rusty Hampton.
Take Phillies/Hamels over Atlanta/Hampton on the run line.
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7:05 PM ET
MLB
Minnesota Twins (Baker) at Cleveland Indians (Carmona)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb">
Minnesota Twins (Listed Pitchers) +113
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Fausto Carmona makes his first start in two months tonight. Pitching coach Carl Willis told the Indians' official Web site that it will be crucial for Carmona not to get overly excited to be back on the mound. "It's all about him controlling his emotions and his effort level," Willis said. "Anybody who misses time and comes back after a while, it's hard to pull the reins back. I'm sure that's something we'll deal with (Saturday)." I think that emotion will work against Carmona, which will make it difficult for Cleveland to win this game against a solid pitcher like Scott Baker.
Baker is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts. He also owns a 1.29 ERA in two outings against Cleveland this year. The Twins also own a solid edge in the bullpen. Minny's pen owns a 3.25 ERA, while Cleveland's pen sports a 5.00 ERA. The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7-8.5. The Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series, while the Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.
Take Minnesota/Baker over Cleveland/Carmona.
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7:05 PM ET
MLB
Houston Astros (Backe) at Milwaukee Brewers (Bush)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb">
Milwaukee Brewers (Listed Pitchers) -165
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Milwaukee has been a thorn in my side the last two days, but I guess that was bound to happen after the success we've had in Brewers' games prior to the last 48 hours. I expect Milwaukee to get right back to their winning ways tonight after having Houston snap their eight-game winning streak last night. That game was the letdown I spoke about in yesterday's analysis, but you can bet there will be no letdown by the Brewers tonight.
Brewers starter Dave Bush has held opponents to one run in four of his last five starts, going 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in that stretch. Bush struck out a career-high 13 batters while limiting Colorado to one run and three hits in eight innings of his last start - an 11-1 victory July 10. He retired 23 of the last 24 batters he faced while improving to 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .246 OOBP in nine home outings. Bush is 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career games against Houston, nine of them starts. Bush also benefits from getting 5.9 runs per game of support in his starts at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 5-1 in Bush's home starts against Houston.
The Astros counter with Brandon Backe. Backe is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in nine career games - six starts - against the Brewers. Backe's road numbers (4.59 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .359 OOBP) are also very mediocre. It doesn't help that he gets just 2.75 runs per game of support in his road starts. Houston has lost all three of Backe's starts at Miller Park.
Take Milwaukee/Bush over Houston/Backe.
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9:05 PM ET
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks (Webb) at San Francisco Giants (Lincecum)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb">
San Francisco Giants (Listed Pitchers) +109
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This has the makings of a classic pitchers' duel. Two of the best pitchers in baseball square off as Arizona's Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11 ERA) takes on the Giants' Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.79).
For his career, Webb is 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA against San Francisco. In his first full season in the majors, Lincecum is leading the league with 143 strikeouts while ranking in the top five in wins and ERA. Lincecum is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.
I also like the fact that Webb is coming off three straight Quality Starts, while Lincecum was roughed up by a hot Brewers team in his last start. I can definitely see the Law of Averages coming into play here tonight.
Webb has gotten just 3.4 runs per game of support in his road starts, while Lincecum has received 5.7 runs per game of support in his starts at AT&T Park. With a pitching matchup that is about even, the Giants slight offensive edge makes them an attractive home dog.
The oddsmakers know this is going to be a pitchers' duel, as they have set the total to an ultra-low 6.5. It should be noted that the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, while the Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Take San Francisco/Lincecum over Arizona/Webb.
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