SPORTS WAGERS
The Cubbies scored four times in the fifth inning yesterday and beat the Astros 4-2 but it wasn’t pretty, as Carlos Zamrbrano was in trouble all day. So, despite scoring just twice on numerous opportunities, the Astros got some pretty decent swings in and racked up 10 hits. They should fair even better against Randy Wells. Wells has two good outings in 10 starts and has just one win. Throw in a WHIP of 1.74, a BAA of .313, an ERA of 6.71 and a 7.71 ERA in July and there’s no appeal with this guy as the chalk or the pooch. This is a rather simple equation that says to always wager against the combination of Randy Wells and the Cubs because there’s not a more beatable combo in all of baseball. Wandy Rodriguez is 6-6 with a 3.67 ERA and nothing more needs to be said. This one is all about taking back a tag against Wells and the Cubs. Play: Houston +108 (Risking 2 units).
The Phillies as a team provides win potential for Kyle Kendrick. His command is sup-par (21 BB/27 K in 67 IP) and lefthanders love him (.913 career OPS). His whole history provides a good idea of what to expect, which is not much. Ignore that 3.34 ERA because most of that comes from Kendrick throwing an inning here and there in relief this season. Fact is, he’s made eight starts and 15 relief appearances and in six of those eight starts he was whacked hard. His xERA in his eight starts is 6.04 and as soon as Roy Oswalt returns, Kendrick is heading back to the pen. Matt Latos’s name has not been mentioned much this year after he had a brilliant season last year. However, he’s been coming on recently and appears to be back in top form. Latos has struck out 98 batters in 107 frames. Over his last four starts, Latos has a groundball rate of 57% and a xERA of 3.44. Contrary to what a lot of people think, the Phillies offense is not that good and ranks 19th in the league. The Phillies are a small price at home against the Padres and that tells us that the books don’t mind one bit taking action on the Phillies in this game. Play: San Diego +129 (Risking 2 units).
Best value on the board today. David Huff made his season debut against the Twins July 18 and it was a good one. He recorded a quality start with five hits allowed over seven shutout innings along with five strikeouts. Don't count on that being a regular occurrence. Huff had a 3.86 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts and in 38 previous starts in the majors had a 5.84 ERA. Huff went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 80 IP for the Tribe last season and the absence of an advantage over LHers doesn't help. This is not a skill set worth chasing. Edwin Jackson is the real deal. His brilliant second half last year went unnoticed due to an elevated hit % and HR/fly-ball rate. He’s off to an even better 2H this year and he’s currently on a big run with 29 k’s and just six walks over his last 35.2 frames. Jackson is coming off a complete game shutout over the Tigers and has a good chance to completely dominate this inconsistent line-up today. Huff favored over Jackson is incorrect. Play: Chicago +100 (Risking 2 units).
The Rangers are the hottest team in the majors and when you combine that with last night’s 12-2 blowout win over the Blue Jays it certainly appears to have influenced this line. Thing is, the Jays were pretty hot too coming into this series and in no way does Matt Harrison warrant being an 8-5 favorite over Carlos Villienueva and the Jays. Harrison has pitched well on the surface with a 2.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Don’t buy it, as any reason for optimism ends right there. His base skills are horrible. Harrison has relied on a 26% hit rate and 78% strand rate to succeed. While his fastball velocity has increased for the third straight season and now averages 93 MPH, those gains have not been manifested in any skill improvements. Sell high, as this is an ERA that is 100% guaranteed to see a correction in the second half. The Jays have always played well against Texas and in fact, they’ve won 10 of the past 14 games. Villenueva has shown a big improvement in his skills. He’s walking fewer and his GB rate is trending the right way. He has an impressive 1.11 WHIP and he only has two losses in 10 starts. There are some concerns in terms of his workload, as he’s approaching unchartered territory but that’s a topic for another time. For today at least, the Jays offer up some pretty sweet value and definitely have a good chance to win. Play: Toronto +150 (Risking 2 units).
The Cubbies scored four times in the fifth inning yesterday and beat the Astros 4-2 but it wasn’t pretty, as Carlos Zamrbrano was in trouble all day. So, despite scoring just twice on numerous opportunities, the Astros got some pretty decent swings in and racked up 10 hits. They should fair even better against Randy Wells. Wells has two good outings in 10 starts and has just one win. Throw in a WHIP of 1.74, a BAA of .313, an ERA of 6.71 and a 7.71 ERA in July and there’s no appeal with this guy as the chalk or the pooch. This is a rather simple equation that says to always wager against the combination of Randy Wells and the Cubs because there’s not a more beatable combo in all of baseball. Wandy Rodriguez is 6-6 with a 3.67 ERA and nothing more needs to be said. This one is all about taking back a tag against Wells and the Cubs. Play: Houston +108 (Risking 2 units).
The Phillies as a team provides win potential for Kyle Kendrick. His command is sup-par (21 BB/27 K in 67 IP) and lefthanders love him (.913 career OPS). His whole history provides a good idea of what to expect, which is not much. Ignore that 3.34 ERA because most of that comes from Kendrick throwing an inning here and there in relief this season. Fact is, he’s made eight starts and 15 relief appearances and in six of those eight starts he was whacked hard. His xERA in his eight starts is 6.04 and as soon as Roy Oswalt returns, Kendrick is heading back to the pen. Matt Latos’s name has not been mentioned much this year after he had a brilliant season last year. However, he’s been coming on recently and appears to be back in top form. Latos has struck out 98 batters in 107 frames. Over his last four starts, Latos has a groundball rate of 57% and a xERA of 3.44. Contrary to what a lot of people think, the Phillies offense is not that good and ranks 19th in the league. The Phillies are a small price at home against the Padres and that tells us that the books don’t mind one bit taking action on the Phillies in this game. Play: San Diego +129 (Risking 2 units).
Best value on the board today. David Huff made his season debut against the Twins July 18 and it was a good one. He recorded a quality start with five hits allowed over seven shutout innings along with five strikeouts. Don't count on that being a regular occurrence. Huff had a 3.86 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts and in 38 previous starts in the majors had a 5.84 ERA. Huff went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 80 IP for the Tribe last season and the absence of an advantage over LHers doesn't help. This is not a skill set worth chasing. Edwin Jackson is the real deal. His brilliant second half last year went unnoticed due to an elevated hit % and HR/fly-ball rate. He’s off to an even better 2H this year and he’s currently on a big run with 29 k’s and just six walks over his last 35.2 frames. Jackson is coming off a complete game shutout over the Tigers and has a good chance to completely dominate this inconsistent line-up today. Huff favored over Jackson is incorrect. Play: Chicago +100 (Risking 2 units).
The Rangers are the hottest team in the majors and when you combine that with last night’s 12-2 blowout win over the Blue Jays it certainly appears to have influenced this line. Thing is, the Jays were pretty hot too coming into this series and in no way does Matt Harrison warrant being an 8-5 favorite over Carlos Villienueva and the Jays. Harrison has pitched well on the surface with a 2.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Don’t buy it, as any reason for optimism ends right there. His base skills are horrible. Harrison has relied on a 26% hit rate and 78% strand rate to succeed. While his fastball velocity has increased for the third straight season and now averages 93 MPH, those gains have not been manifested in any skill improvements. Sell high, as this is an ERA that is 100% guaranteed to see a correction in the second half. The Jays have always played well against Texas and in fact, they’ve won 10 of the past 14 games. Villenueva has shown a big improvement in his skills. He’s walking fewer and his GB rate is trending the right way. He has an impressive 1.11 WHIP and he only has two losses in 10 starts. There are some concerns in terms of his workload, as he’s approaching unchartered territory but that’s a topic for another time. For today at least, the Jays offer up some pretty sweet value and definitely have a good chance to win. Play: Toronto +150 (Risking 2 units).
