Sat, 06/28/08 - 7:10 PMLarry Ness | MLB Money Line
free pick970 MIN (+100) BetUS vs 969 MIL
Analysis:
When Livan Hernandez took the mound on June 17 in a home game vs the Nationals, the Twins had lost EIGHT of their previous 11 games and Hernandez was in terrible personal slump. After a surprisingly strong start to '08 (his first-ever season in the AL), Hernandez had gone 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA in his previous six starts (team was 2-4). However, Hernandez allowed five hits and only one run over seven innings against the Nats that day, getting a 2-1 win. The Twins haven't lost since, as last night's 7-6 win was the team's 10th in a row. The Twins have outscored opponents 65-25 during their winning streak and along with the Royals, own MLB's best interleague mark in '08 (13-3). Hernandez takes a two-game winning streak into tonight's game, as this past Sunday he bested Arizona's Brandon Webb 5-3, going seven innings while allowing nine hits but just one ER. While Hernandez has been "far from perfect" this season (5.23 ERA), the Twins are 12-5 (plus-$1,050) in his starts, which ranks him 4th-best among starters, in all of MLB. The Brewers come in 20-9 since May 26 but they have lost their last two games. Manny Parra (7-2 with a 4.29 ERA) gets the start and is looking for a sixth straight win but like so many of Milwaukee's pitchers, his road efforts pale in comparison to his performances at home. He's 5-0 with a 2.75 ERA in nine home starts (team is 7-2) but 2-2 with a 7.25 ERA in six road starts (team is 3-3). The Twins continue to win but some reason, we do not see their on-field successes reflected in the moneyline. Tonight's a perfect an example. Go with Minnesota.