MLBPredictions
Kevin
Winner yesterday Under Tampa Bay / Houston
1*Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres – OVER 6 RUNS (-110)
The Padres thumped Atlanta last night, scoring 11 runs on their way to an 11-2 win. The Padres have now won 3 straight games, but are still kist 15-26 at home this season. We have Jair Jurrjens on the mound for the Braves, and he has been outstanding this season. He is 9-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, with batters hitting .249 against him. San Diego sends Dustin Moseley to the mound, who has pitched solid, but his record doesn’t indicate it. Moseley is just 2-6 on the season, but has a 3.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Despite two solid pitchers on the mound, I still think the oddsmakers are being generous here giving us a total of 6 without laying much chalk at all. The OVER is is a perfect 7-0 in the Braves last 7 road games with a total set at 6.5 or lower, and 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Braves last 5 road games overall, and 7-3-1 in their last 11 vs NL West teams. Despite having mostly “UNDER” numbers, the OVER is 4-1 in Jurrjens’ last 5 vs NL West opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in the Padres last 5 overall, and 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Also note that the OVER is 5-2 in Moseley’s last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 5-1-1 in these two teams 7 meetings this season, and that includes totals of 6, 6.5 and 7. The OVER is 13-3-2 in their last 18 meetings overall, and 27-6-3 in their last 26 meetings in San Diego. We are getting a great price on this low total between two teams who have only gone under the total in 3 of their last 18 meetings.
I’m taking it and running.
Play is on the OVER.