Deano
Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-June 12th
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*************************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*************************
[904] New York |5*|+100|-1.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[926] San Diego |5*|+120|B+0|Network N/A|8:35 pm EST
[918] Minnesota |5*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[911] Nym/Bal |2*|UNDER|9 Runs|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
*Note
Records can be found at Handicappers Paradise
16-7 PP Single Purchase Run
Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-June 12th
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*************************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*************************
[904] New York |5*|+100|-1.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[926] San Diego |5*|+120|B+0|Network N/A|8:35 pm EST
[918] Minnesota |5*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[911] Nym/Bal |2*|UNDER|9 Runs|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
*Note
Records can be found at Handicappers Paradise
16-7 PP Single Purchase Run
Cleveland Insider (Service Plays)
MLB 19-1
WNBA 4-0
AFL 14-0
NFL 59-3
NBA 145-4
CFL 14-0
Saturday Plays 6-12
WNBA
Play #3- Tulsa +13 (buying 3 points -170) over Phoenix wager $1239.30 win $729
AFL
Play #1- Iowa +2 (buying 3 points -170) over Bossier wager $170 win $100
our goal is to win $100 per set
MLB 19-1
WNBA 4-0
AFL 14-0
NFL 59-3
NBA 145-4
CFL 14-0
Saturday Plays 6-12
WNBA
Play #3- Tulsa +13 (buying 3 points -170) over Phoenix wager $1239.30 win $729
AFL
Play #1- Iowa +2 (buying 3 points -170) over Bossier wager $170 win $100
our goal is to win $100 per set
Totals
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven games at Wrigley Field.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Houston road games.
-- Eight of Mets' last nine games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 13-4 in last seventeen games at Cleveland.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five games at Comerica Park.
-- Under is 14-6-1 in last twenty-one Florida road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Fenway Park.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Over is 9-3 in Atlanta's last twelve road games.
-- Four of last six games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five games at Coors Field.
-- Seven of last eight Giant games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen games at Petco Park.
-- Six of last seven Dodger home games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- White Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Astros won eight of their last eleven games. Bronx won its last six home games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven games. .
-- Red Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Reds won 13 of their last 19 home games.
-- Minnesota won seven of its last eight home games. Braves won 11 of their last 18 road games.
-- Rangers won three of their last four games. Brewers won six of their last eight home games.
-- Giants won ten of their last thirteen home games.
-- San Diego won five of its last six home games.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last twelve games. Angels won eight of their last ten road games.
Cold teams
-- Arizona lost 15 of its last 18 games. Cardinals lost four of their last five games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last elevn games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Nationals lost 13 of their last 16 road games.
-- Pirates lost last six games, giving up 34 runs.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Royals lost four of their last six road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last nine games. Toronto lost four of their last five games, scoring ten runs.
-- Mariners lost seven of last eight games, outscored 35-9 in last four.
Umpires
-- StL-Az-- Under is 7-3 in Miller's last ten games behind plate.
-- Hst-NYY-- Favorites won last five Nauert games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Eddings games.
-- Phil-Bos-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Hohn games.
-- Wsh-Clev-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Crawford games. Underdogs are 5-3, road teams 6-2.
-- NY-Balt-- Four of last five Hallion games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Det-- Visiting team won five of seven Reyburn games.
-- Fla-TB-- Last ten Wolf games stayed under total. Interesting to note that Wolf's brother pitches for the Brewers.
-- Atl-Minn-- Favorites won nine of ten Layne games.
-- Tex-Mil-- Five of last six Cederstrom games went over the total.
-- KC-Cin-- Over is 10-3 in last thirteen TWelke games.
-- Tor-Colo-- Home side won last seven McClelland games; underdogs are 6-3 in his last nine.
-- Sea-SD-- Eight of last ten West games stayed under the total.
-- A's-SF-- Last eight Davidson games stayed under the total.
-- LA-LA-- Three of last four Nelson games stayed under the total.
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven games at Wrigley Field.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Houston road games.
-- Eight of Mets' last nine games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 13-4 in last seventeen games at Cleveland.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five games at Comerica Park.
-- Under is 14-6-1 in last twenty-one Florida road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Fenway Park.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Over is 9-3 in Atlanta's last twelve road games.
-- Four of last six games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five games at Coors Field.
-- Seven of last eight Giant games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen games at Petco Park.
-- Six of last seven Dodger home games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- White Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Astros won eight of their last eleven games. Bronx won its last six home games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven games. .
-- Red Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Reds won 13 of their last 19 home games.
-- Minnesota won seven of its last eight home games. Braves won 11 of their last 18 road games.
-- Rangers won three of their last four games. Brewers won six of their last eight home games.
-- Giants won ten of their last thirteen home games.
-- San Diego won five of its last six home games.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last twelve games. Angels won eight of their last ten road games.
Cold teams
-- Arizona lost 15 of its last 18 games. Cardinals lost four of their last five games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last elevn games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Nationals lost 13 of their last 16 road games.
-- Pirates lost last six games, giving up 34 runs.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Royals lost four of their last six road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last nine games. Toronto lost four of their last five games, scoring ten runs.
-- Mariners lost seven of last eight games, outscored 35-9 in last four.
Umpires
-- StL-Az-- Under is 7-3 in Miller's last ten games behind plate.
-- Hst-NYY-- Favorites won last five Nauert games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Eddings games.
-- Phil-Bos-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Hohn games.
-- Wsh-Clev-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Crawford games. Underdogs are 5-3, road teams 6-2.
-- NY-Balt-- Four of last five Hallion games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Det-- Visiting team won five of seven Reyburn games.
-- Fla-TB-- Last ten Wolf games stayed under total. Interesting to note that Wolf's brother pitches for the Brewers.
-- Atl-Minn-- Favorites won nine of ten Layne games.
-- Tex-Mil-- Five of last six Cederstrom games went over the total.
-- KC-Cin-- Over is 10-3 in last thirteen TWelke games.
-- Tor-Colo-- Home side won last seven McClelland games; underdogs are 6-3 in his last nine.
-- Sea-SD-- Eight of last ten West games stayed under the total.
-- A's-SF-- Last eight Davidson games stayed under the total.
-- LA-LA-- Three of last four Nelson games stayed under the total.
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
DUNKEL MLB
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's 10-5 loss and build on their 5-0 record in Carlos Silva's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Cubs are the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155)
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Ottavino) 14.780; Arizona (Haren) 15.568
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Under
Game 903-904: Houston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.975; NY Yankees (Vazquez) 16.192
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-240); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.341; Cubs (Silva) 15.513
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Boston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.631; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.857
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over
Game 909-910: Washington at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 15.169; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under
Game 911-912: NY Mets at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Takahashi) 14.914; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.306
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over
Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.016; Detroit (Bonderman) 14.188
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Over
Game 915-916: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.245; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.343
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under
Game 917-918: Atlanta at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 17.005; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.148
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Under
Game 919-920: Texas at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.695; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.478
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.408; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.147
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.893; Colorado (Hammel) 15.156
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under
Game 925-926: Seattle at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 14.008; San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.031
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 15.864; San Francisco (Zito) 16.666
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under
Game 929-930: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.412; LA Dodgers (Ely) 16.909
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Over
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's 10-5 loss and build on their 5-0 record in Carlos Silva's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Cubs are the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155)
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Ottavino) 14.780; Arizona (Haren) 15.568
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Under
Game 903-904: Houston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.975; NY Yankees (Vazquez) 16.192
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-240); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.341; Cubs (Silva) 15.513
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Boston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.631; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.857
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over
Game 909-910: Washington at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 15.169; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under
Game 911-912: NY Mets at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Takahashi) 14.914; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.306
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over
Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.016; Detroit (Bonderman) 14.188
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Over
Game 915-916: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.245; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.343
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under
Game 917-918: Atlanta at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 17.005; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.148
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Under
Game 919-920: Texas at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.695; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.478
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.408; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.147
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-175); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.893; Colorado (Hammel) 15.156
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under
Game 925-926: Seattle at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 14.008; San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.031
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 15.864; San Francisco (Zito) 16.666
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under
Game 929-930: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.412; LA Dodgers (Ely) 16.909
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Over
DUNKEL WNBA
New York at Washington
The Mystics look to take advantage of a New York team that is coming off a 91-79 win over Atlanta last night and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win. Washington is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2)
Game 601-602: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.311; Washington 115.835
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 7 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Tulsa at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 105.870; Phoenix 118.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2); Under
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
New York at Washington
The Mystics look to take advantage of a New York team that is coming off a 91-79 win over Atlanta last night and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win. Washington is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2)
Game 601-602: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.311; Washington 115.835
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 7 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Tulsa at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 105.870; Phoenix 118.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2); Under
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
Deano's HRC Smart Choice* Best Bets|Your Capping Agent-June 12th
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*************************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*************************
[904] New York |5*|+100|-1.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[926] San Diego |5*|+120|B+0|Network N/A|8:35 pm EST
[918] Minnesota |5*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[911] Nym/Bal |2*|UNDER|9 Runs|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*************************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*************************
[904] New York |5*|+100|-1.5 Runs|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[926] San Diego |5*|+120|B+0|Network N/A|8:35 pm EST
[918] Minnesota |5*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
[911] Nym/Bal |2*|UNDER|9 Runs|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
MLB RoundUp for 6/12
by Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks (-140) with a total of 9
Matt Holliday is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Interestingly, Haren has faced the Cards already this year, and despite giving up 7 runs in 6 innings, the D'backs won 9-7. This is a different Haren now than in April, though, as his pitches are finally starting to dance, and his numbers are slowly creeping back from awful to mediocre. Pitching at home is tough, though, as Chase Field seems to get more and more hitter friendly by the year, and Haren struggled a bit with the Braves at home 5 days ago. He's 3-0 against the Cards with a 4.29 ERA, but that number was massaged north by the 7-run effort this season. Ottavino has been, well, not good in his two starts, and you have to think the D'backs are going to score a few off him, but is this price too much for a team that can't protect a late 2-run lead? Leans: D'backs
Interleague Play
Astros @ Yankees (-245) with a total of 9.5
I'd love to say that THIS is the time to fade the Yankees at home, but it just doesn't seem quite right. Wandy is having an off year, and has a 9.00 ERA against the Yanks in his brief work against them. Houston is playing better, to their credit, but the Yanks are just dominant at their palace in the Bronx, and Vazquez, for as bad as he started the year, is still a guy that had top-5 stuff in the NL last year, and he's just now starting to find his velocity. Leans: None
White Sox @ Cubs (-155) with a total of N/A
Paul Konerko is batting .321 with 1 HR and 6 RBI off Silva since '05;
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .296 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Silva since '05;
Derrek Lee is 3-for-10 with 3 RBI off Buerhle since '05.
I was looking for a way to back the White Sox at a dog price in this one, but this is another spot where I'm just not pleased with the numbers on the underdog side, either. Silva is just 4-10 in his career against the Southsiders, and posts a 5.52 ERA, but most of that work came a few years back, so there's been turnover, and even the guys that hit him hard haven't seen much of him lately. Buerhle is having a terrible season, and is showing zero signs of busting out of his slump. The Cubs have won Silva's last 10 starts, he's 8-0, and this is Cubs or nothin'. Leans: Cubs
Phillies @ Red Sox (-156) with a total of 10
Mike Cameron is 4-for-9 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Blanton since '05;
J.D. Drew is 5-for-15 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Big Papi is 7-for-23 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Kevin Youkilis is 7-for-21 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton.
Blanton still looks a bit lost, and while he's likely to hit his stride at some point, it hasn't happened yet. Matsuzaka is actually pitching quite well, lately, and has his season ERA down to just 4.59. This line is pretty fair, even though Blanton has pitched alright against the Sox in his career (3-2, 3.61). He's just not there physically, and until a pitcher is at full strength, almost any line is actually going to be a tiny bit of value (even if it's just a nickel) on the other side. Leans: Red Sox
Mets (-115) @ Orioles with a total of 9
The Orioles continue to be in that rare category of being completely radioactive. I would love to fade the Mets on the road, but the Orioles are just completely hapless. I mean, it's gotten to that point where even though the Mets are a great road fade, and Brian Matusz has good enough stuff to shut down most teams (if he's on), the Orioles are just so completely inept with runners on base, and that bullpen is so pathetic (though new closer David Hernandez pitched well) that they're basically unbackable. Leans: None
Pirates @ Tigers (-185) with a total of 8.5
Ryan Church is 2-for-2 with an RBI off Bonderman.
Jeremy Bonderman is coming off a poor start against the Royals that raised his ERA considerably. He's had 2 other starts this year where he's just sort of blown up, and each time he's bounced back nicely the next time out, and for that reason, I don't really consider it a downward trend. Bonderman just doesn't have the velocity he used to, so when he's off his game, he's going to get hit hard. Maholm is a nice, solid lefthander, but we know what the Tigers can do to lefties. This is not a good time to back the road team, and the price is probably too high to consider a play on the home team. Leans: None
Nationals @ Indians (-129) with a total of 9
Adam Kennedy is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Carmona;
Ivan Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Carmona.
This line seems intriguingly low, considering Carmona's name recognition. Jake Westbrook opened as a -110 favorite yesterday and went off at -129, and this is only 4 cents more? I'm not sure you can really call a line "fishy" when it's a Washington/Cleveland game, but I'm absolutely not sold on the reasoning behind this one. Still, looking at the numbers, Martin has pitched well in 2 starts, but we know he's not a 2.31 ERA guy long term, and Carmona just keeps rumbling along. He walked too many batters against the Red Sox in his last start, and got hit harder by the Yanks a few starts before that, but he would seem to be effective enough to shut down the Nats lesser offense. Leans: Indians
Braves @ Twins (-120) with a total of 9.5
Joe Mauer is a perfect 4-for-4 off Lowe;
Justin Morneau is 3-for-6 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lowe.
This is an interesting game, if mostly because Derek Lowe is getting us a very cheap price on the Twins. Do we want it, though? I think maybe. The Twins seem to find a way to win many of Blackburn's starts, even though the oddly pear-shaped righthander has a 5.21 ERA. He's never faced the Braves, so he will have his hands full, but Lowe is a career 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA against Minnesota, and the Twins are mashing at Target Field. The concern is that Blackburn is indeed coming off his 2 shortest starts of the season, so he's really struggling, but man does this price look tempting. Leans: Twins
Marlins @ Rays (-180) with a total of 8.5
Nolasco is 2-1 against the Rays, but has a 6.88 ERA. Maybe not the best time to be backing the big underdog. If we're going to lay our money down on a bit of a longshot (or semi-longshot, in this case), we're not going to do it unless the situation is damn near perfect. Garza is actually coming off 3 straight starts where he has been far from dominant, but Nolasco is right in that same boat, and Tampa has the huge bullpen edge. Leans: None
Royals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 8.5
You were looking for that big underdog with a decent shot? This one certainly is getting closer. Brian Bannister is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Reds, and while that is the definition of "limited action", he's extremely reliable, and his 6-3 record is a nice indicator that run support is usually alright. Cueto is struggling just a tad, lately, giving up 10 hits in each of his last 2 starts, and 12 runs in 11 innings. Sure, it could be a 2-start blip, which happens to younger pitchers quite often, but the strikeout numbers aren't great, and I happen to think this slump could last another 1-2 starts before he gets things straightened out. The bullpen always makes the Royals a dangerous play, but they're definitely a good value these days, finding ways to win closer to 40% of games. Leans: Royals
Rangers @ Brewers (-110) with a total of 10
If we make a play on this game, it's going to be based largely on who works in the Brewers pen the previous game. There are, literally, 2 arms in that pen that I trust, and if those guys aren't fully rested, I'm not sure I can advocate playing on Milwaukee. I believe Feldman is going to give up 3-4 runs in this one, and that high total is indicative of that. Parra has actually been alright since sliding back into the starting rotation. He's building up that arm strength, and he racked up 10 big strikeouts in his last start against the Cards. The Brewers are miserable at home, so that's definitely a point of concern, but the Rangers offensive home/road splits make them an intriguing road fade. But, again, this lean is based on the opening line and the assumption that all relevant arms are available. Leans: Brewers
Blue Jays @ Rockies (-129) with a total of 9.5
Fred Lewis is 6-for-7 off Hammel;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 with a HR off Hammel.
Jason Hammel is 2-0 against the Jays, but that ERA of 5.87 stands out as less-than-stellar. He has, however, started to turn the corner this year, and has made 3 straight solid starts, including 2 very strong efforts here at Coors. Brandon Morrow is another guy that is on a wild upward swing. He's given up just 2 runs over his last 14 innings in 2 starts, those coming against the Rays and Yanks, 2 of the top offenses in baseball. If you're a Morrow fan, you're liking what you see. I think the first thing that jumps out in this game is that total. 9.5 is such an interesting number, especially when you have two pitchers with ERA's in the 5's getting the starting nod at Coors Field. That number is a strong, strong note, as oddsmakers could have easily opened this one up at 10, considering the two guys involved. Leans: Under
Mariners (-125) @ Padres with a total of 6
REMATCH ALERT! This is a really funny rematch, if only because the last game, a 6.5-total battle in Seattle, ended with the final score o 15-8, Cliff Lee giving up 7 runs in 6.1 innings, which was good enough for a win, somehow. Ah yes, I know how. LeBlanc has a career ERA of 24.92 against the Mariners, absolutely the one team that he never wants to see again. 8 runs in 3 innings is going to be a bit of a nausea-inducing contest. LeBlanc is coming off a nice start his last time out, and I'm intrigued by this incredibly low total. You have to think that the 23 combined runs would have at least kept the total at 6.5, but instead it's a half-run lower? Someone is throwing a complete game shutout, maybe both, but given LeBlanc's history with the Mariners, I'd think Lee is the safer play. Leans: Mariners, Under
Athletics @ Giants (-136) with a total of 7.5
Ben Sheets probably wishes he could just go back to facing NL teams. He's been decent enough this year, but pitched 6 shutout innings in his only start against the NL this year, that coming in a 3-0 win over these Giants. He's 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA lifetime against San Francisco, but, for what it's worth, the Giants are hitting the ball a bit better going into this meeting with the A's, and haven't had their spirits broken by series with the Padres. On the Giants side, Barry Zito gets the call, and aside from his dominance of the Rockies, Zito has been scuffling over the last month, or so. This line is low for a reason, and while I'm not sure the A's have the firepower to win (the Giants are pretty tough at home), I'm absolutely positive I don't trust Zito against his former team. Leans: Athletics
Angels @ Dodgers (-161) with a total of 8.5
The price just keeps rising on this young Dodgers hurler, and probably too high for me to get behind. Though, at the same time, I realize that you don't often get a chance to back one of the best home teams in baseball against a lefthander that can barely get a ball over the plate. Quietly, though, Kazmir has given up just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts, both Angels wins, so he's starting to find a little bit of a rhythm. You could probably convince me that there's value on the Angels side, given that Kazmir is trending way, way up, and Ely is sort of plateauing at "pretty good," but I'm not sure I can fade that Dodgers bullpen right now. Even if Kazmir keeps this game close...heck, even if the Angels are up by a run or two, Kazmir doesn't go deep in games, and the Angels middle relief is a very weak spot, and the Dodgers pen is dominant. Leans: None
by Dan Bebe
National League
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks (-140) with a total of 9
Matt Holliday is 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Interestingly, Haren has faced the Cards already this year, and despite giving up 7 runs in 6 innings, the D'backs won 9-7. This is a different Haren now than in April, though, as his pitches are finally starting to dance, and his numbers are slowly creeping back from awful to mediocre. Pitching at home is tough, though, as Chase Field seems to get more and more hitter friendly by the year, and Haren struggled a bit with the Braves at home 5 days ago. He's 3-0 against the Cards with a 4.29 ERA, but that number was massaged north by the 7-run effort this season. Ottavino has been, well, not good in his two starts, and you have to think the D'backs are going to score a few off him, but is this price too much for a team that can't protect a late 2-run lead? Leans: D'backs
Interleague Play
Astros @ Yankees (-245) with a total of 9.5
I'd love to say that THIS is the time to fade the Yankees at home, but it just doesn't seem quite right. Wandy is having an off year, and has a 9.00 ERA against the Yanks in his brief work against them. Houston is playing better, to their credit, but the Yanks are just dominant at their palace in the Bronx, and Vazquez, for as bad as he started the year, is still a guy that had top-5 stuff in the NL last year, and he's just now starting to find his velocity. Leans: None
White Sox @ Cubs (-155) with a total of N/A
Paul Konerko is batting .321 with 1 HR and 6 RBI off Silva since '05;
A.J. Pierzynski is batting .296 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Silva since '05;
Derrek Lee is 3-for-10 with 3 RBI off Buerhle since '05.
I was looking for a way to back the White Sox at a dog price in this one, but this is another spot where I'm just not pleased with the numbers on the underdog side, either. Silva is just 4-10 in his career against the Southsiders, and posts a 5.52 ERA, but most of that work came a few years back, so there's been turnover, and even the guys that hit him hard haven't seen much of him lately. Buerhle is having a terrible season, and is showing zero signs of busting out of his slump. The Cubs have won Silva's last 10 starts, he's 8-0, and this is Cubs or nothin'. Leans: Cubs
Phillies @ Red Sox (-156) with a total of 10
Mike Cameron is 4-for-9 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Blanton since '05;
J.D. Drew is 5-for-15 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Big Papi is 7-for-23 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Blanton since '05;
Kevin Youkilis is 7-for-21 with a HR and 2 RBI off Blanton.
Blanton still looks a bit lost, and while he's likely to hit his stride at some point, it hasn't happened yet. Matsuzaka is actually pitching quite well, lately, and has his season ERA down to just 4.59. This line is pretty fair, even though Blanton has pitched alright against the Sox in his career (3-2, 3.61). He's just not there physically, and until a pitcher is at full strength, almost any line is actually going to be a tiny bit of value (even if it's just a nickel) on the other side. Leans: Red Sox
Mets (-115) @ Orioles with a total of 9
The Orioles continue to be in that rare category of being completely radioactive. I would love to fade the Mets on the road, but the Orioles are just completely hapless. I mean, it's gotten to that point where even though the Mets are a great road fade, and Brian Matusz has good enough stuff to shut down most teams (if he's on), the Orioles are just so completely inept with runners on base, and that bullpen is so pathetic (though new closer David Hernandez pitched well) that they're basically unbackable. Leans: None
Pirates @ Tigers (-185) with a total of 8.5
Ryan Church is 2-for-2 with an RBI off Bonderman.
Jeremy Bonderman is coming off a poor start against the Royals that raised his ERA considerably. He's had 2 other starts this year where he's just sort of blown up, and each time he's bounced back nicely the next time out, and for that reason, I don't really consider it a downward trend. Bonderman just doesn't have the velocity he used to, so when he's off his game, he's going to get hit hard. Maholm is a nice, solid lefthander, but we know what the Tigers can do to lefties. This is not a good time to back the road team, and the price is probably too high to consider a play on the home team. Leans: None
Nationals @ Indians (-129) with a total of 9
Adam Kennedy is 3-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI off Carmona;
Ivan Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Carmona.
This line seems intriguingly low, considering Carmona's name recognition. Jake Westbrook opened as a -110 favorite yesterday and went off at -129, and this is only 4 cents more? I'm not sure you can really call a line "fishy" when it's a Washington/Cleveland game, but I'm absolutely not sold on the reasoning behind this one. Still, looking at the numbers, Martin has pitched well in 2 starts, but we know he's not a 2.31 ERA guy long term, and Carmona just keeps rumbling along. He walked too many batters against the Red Sox in his last start, and got hit harder by the Yanks a few starts before that, but he would seem to be effective enough to shut down the Nats lesser offense. Leans: Indians
Braves @ Twins (-120) with a total of 9.5
Joe Mauer is a perfect 4-for-4 off Lowe;
Justin Morneau is 3-for-6 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lowe.
This is an interesting game, if mostly because Derek Lowe is getting us a very cheap price on the Twins. Do we want it, though? I think maybe. The Twins seem to find a way to win many of Blackburn's starts, even though the oddly pear-shaped righthander has a 5.21 ERA. He's never faced the Braves, so he will have his hands full, but Lowe is a career 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA against Minnesota, and the Twins are mashing at Target Field. The concern is that Blackburn is indeed coming off his 2 shortest starts of the season, so he's really struggling, but man does this price look tempting. Leans: Twins
Marlins @ Rays (-180) with a total of 8.5
Nolasco is 2-1 against the Rays, but has a 6.88 ERA. Maybe not the best time to be backing the big underdog. If we're going to lay our money down on a bit of a longshot (or semi-longshot, in this case), we're not going to do it unless the situation is damn near perfect. Garza is actually coming off 3 straight starts where he has been far from dominant, but Nolasco is right in that same boat, and Tampa has the huge bullpen edge. Leans: None
Royals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 8.5
You were looking for that big underdog with a decent shot? This one certainly is getting closer. Brian Bannister is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Reds, and while that is the definition of "limited action", he's extremely reliable, and his 6-3 record is a nice indicator that run support is usually alright. Cueto is struggling just a tad, lately, giving up 10 hits in each of his last 2 starts, and 12 runs in 11 innings. Sure, it could be a 2-start blip, which happens to younger pitchers quite often, but the strikeout numbers aren't great, and I happen to think this slump could last another 1-2 starts before he gets things straightened out. The bullpen always makes the Royals a dangerous play, but they're definitely a good value these days, finding ways to win closer to 40% of games. Leans: Royals
Rangers @ Brewers (-110) with a total of 10
If we make a play on this game, it's going to be based largely on who works in the Brewers pen the previous game. There are, literally, 2 arms in that pen that I trust, and if those guys aren't fully rested, I'm not sure I can advocate playing on Milwaukee. I believe Feldman is going to give up 3-4 runs in this one, and that high total is indicative of that. Parra has actually been alright since sliding back into the starting rotation. He's building up that arm strength, and he racked up 10 big strikeouts in his last start against the Cards. The Brewers are miserable at home, so that's definitely a point of concern, but the Rangers offensive home/road splits make them an intriguing road fade. But, again, this lean is based on the opening line and the assumption that all relevant arms are available. Leans: Brewers
Blue Jays @ Rockies (-129) with a total of 9.5
Fred Lewis is 6-for-7 off Hammel;
Vernon Wells is 3-for-8 with a HR off Hammel.
Jason Hammel is 2-0 against the Jays, but that ERA of 5.87 stands out as less-than-stellar. He has, however, started to turn the corner this year, and has made 3 straight solid starts, including 2 very strong efforts here at Coors. Brandon Morrow is another guy that is on a wild upward swing. He's given up just 2 runs over his last 14 innings in 2 starts, those coming against the Rays and Yanks, 2 of the top offenses in baseball. If you're a Morrow fan, you're liking what you see. I think the first thing that jumps out in this game is that total. 9.5 is such an interesting number, especially when you have two pitchers with ERA's in the 5's getting the starting nod at Coors Field. That number is a strong, strong note, as oddsmakers could have easily opened this one up at 10, considering the two guys involved. Leans: Under
Mariners (-125) @ Padres with a total of 6
REMATCH ALERT! This is a really funny rematch, if only because the last game, a 6.5-total battle in Seattle, ended with the final score o 15-8, Cliff Lee giving up 7 runs in 6.1 innings, which was good enough for a win, somehow. Ah yes, I know how. LeBlanc has a career ERA of 24.92 against the Mariners, absolutely the one team that he never wants to see again. 8 runs in 3 innings is going to be a bit of a nausea-inducing contest. LeBlanc is coming off a nice start his last time out, and I'm intrigued by this incredibly low total. You have to think that the 23 combined runs would have at least kept the total at 6.5, but instead it's a half-run lower? Someone is throwing a complete game shutout, maybe both, but given LeBlanc's history with the Mariners, I'd think Lee is the safer play. Leans: Mariners, Under
Athletics @ Giants (-136) with a total of 7.5
Ben Sheets probably wishes he could just go back to facing NL teams. He's been decent enough this year, but pitched 6 shutout innings in his only start against the NL this year, that coming in a 3-0 win over these Giants. He's 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA lifetime against San Francisco, but, for what it's worth, the Giants are hitting the ball a bit better going into this meeting with the A's, and haven't had their spirits broken by series with the Padres. On the Giants side, Barry Zito gets the call, and aside from his dominance of the Rockies, Zito has been scuffling over the last month, or so. This line is low for a reason, and while I'm not sure the A's have the firepower to win (the Giants are pretty tough at home), I'm absolutely positive I don't trust Zito against his former team. Leans: Athletics
Angels @ Dodgers (-161) with a total of 8.5
The price just keeps rising on this young Dodgers hurler, and probably too high for me to get behind. Though, at the same time, I realize that you don't often get a chance to back one of the best home teams in baseball against a lefthander that can barely get a ball over the plate. Quietly, though, Kazmir has given up just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts, both Angels wins, so he's starting to find a little bit of a rhythm. You could probably convince me that there's value on the Angels side, given that Kazmir is trending way, way up, and Ely is sort of plateauing at "pretty good," but I'm not sure I can fade that Dodgers bullpen right now. Even if Kazmir keeps this game close...heck, even if the Angels are up by a run or two, Kazmir doesn't go deep in games, and the Angels middle relief is a very weak spot, and the Dodgers pen is dominant. Leans: None
