Service Plays Saturday 6/11/11

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SOCCER CRUSHER
Play of the Day:
Philadelphia Union + Real Salt Lake UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in United States
 
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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB BASEBALL SATURDAY
Play Philadelphia (-185) over Chicago Cubs (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST

Philadelphia has won 4 of the last 6 games and they have also won 21 of the last 28 games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Cliff Lee is 3-0 vs. Chicago over his career with an ERA of 1.71 and he is 4-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.34.

Play New York Yankees (-185) over Cleveland (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:10 PM EST

New York has won 15 of the last 18 day games and they have also won 84 of the last 118 games as a favorite of -175 to -250. Bartolo Colon has won 2 consecutive games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and he has an ERA of 3.28 in all starts this season.
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Play San Francisco (-160) over Cincinnati (Bonus)
 

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Blasscyk WINS
http://www.blasscykwins.blogspot.com
Twitter @blasscyk

Game #1

Arizona (34-30) at Florida (32-30) 7:10 pm est.
910 Florida Marlins OVER 8 (even) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

Game #2

NY Mets (31-32) at Pittsburgh (30-32) 7:05 pm est.
905 New York Mets OVER 8 (even) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)

Game #3

Washington (28-36) at San Diego (29-36) 8:35 pm est.
916 San Diego Padres OVER 6½ (-120) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)
 

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Belmont Stakes (Race 11 at Belmont Park)

John Piesen Horse Racing: Play #5 to Win in Belmont Stakes (Brilliant Speed). Also, play EXACTA BOX and TRIFECTA BOX on #5 (Brilliant Speed) #6 (Nehro) #9 (Animal Kingdom) and #10 (Mucho Macho Man).
 

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Vegas King Sports

Since 5/12, VKS 12-7 +42.21 units
@vegaskingsports


Bonus Play: 904 Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+120), 5 UNITS
 
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Rocky Atkinson | MLB Money Line

double-dime bet 913 LOS(+143) JustBet vs 914 COL

LA Dodgers @ Colorado 8:10 PM EST
Play On: LA Dodgers +143 (Lilly/Hammel) Listed

LA Dodgers bullpen has a 3.61 ERA on the road this year. Ted Lilly has a 2.37 ERA his last 3 starts. Lilly has 14 strikeouts compared to only 2 walks the past 3 games. Jason Hammel is 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA at home this year and is 0-2 his last 3 starts. LA Dodgers are 27-15 overall vs Colorado the past 3 years. Lilly is 6-2 overall vs Colorado since 1997. We'll play the LA Dodgers for 2 DIMES tonight!
Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

Bonus Play: Arizona -120
 
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DAVID BANKS (comp)
Winnner yesterday with the over on Dodgers game

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Though the 2011 baseball season is only about to hit the middle of June, Saturday night at Miller Park will have a playoff feel to it as the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers look to better position themselves within the NL Central Division.


Getting the starting nod for the Redbirds in Game 2 of this scheduled three-game weekend set will by veteran right-hander Chris Carpenter. Though he enters with just one win under his belt through 13 starts, “Carp” enters in fine form having allowed 22 hits and only six ERs over the course of his L/3 starts; he also sports a phenomenal 20/4 K/BB ratio through those 22 total innings of work. St. Louis invaded “The Land of Cheese” Friday night with a 2.5-game lead over the Brewers within the division. Manager Tony LaRussa’s outfit has been a solid bet for baseball bettors away from Busch as they’ve posted a 20-14 overall record (+$611) with Friday night’s game pending.

After giving its woeful overall road record a boost in the arm by taking five of seven from the Reds and Marlins, the Brewers returned home and disappointingly dropped two of three to the below average New York Mets. Still, manager Ron Roenicke’s squad sports the best home mark in all of baseball having won 22 of 31 overall games ($967). Offseason acquisition Zach Greinke gets the call to the starting bump on Saturday night. Though he enters with an impressive 5-1 record, his core stats leave much to be desired with a 4.83 ERA and the league hitting .263 against him.

After dropping four of these division rivals first five meetings a year ago, Milwaukee went on to win seven of the next 10 overall meetings; the road team tallied wins in eight of the 15 overall clashes with the ‘under’ cashing nine times. St. Louis took two of three in these teams first series of the year at Busch back at the beginning of May. The Cardinals are 7-3 their L/10 vs. righties, but stand just 2-6 in Carpenter’s L/8 road starts vs. +.500 opposition. The Brew Crew has triumphed in Game 2 of a series each of the L/6 times and has won each of Greinke’s L/6 starts.

PICK: Milwaukee/St. Louis UNDER
 

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Blasscyk WINS
http://www.blasscykwins.blogspot.com
Twitter @blasscyk

Game #1

Arizona (34-30) at Florida (32-30) 7:10 pm est.
910 Florida Marlins OVER 8 (even) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

Game #2

NY Mets (31-32) at Pittsburgh (30-32) 7:05 pm est.
905 New York Mets OVER 8 (even) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)

Game #3

Washington (28-36) at San Diego (29-36) 8:35 pm est.
916 San Diego Padres OVER 6½ (-120) *5 UNITS* (5dimes)

add game:

Game #4

904 Philadelphia Phillies RL -1½ (+120) *3 UNITS* (The Greek)
 
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EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+118),
Red Sox (+108),
Yankees (-185),
White Sox (-117),
Tigers (-113),
Royals (+127),
Braves (-115),
Rangers (+150).

NBA
UNDER 187 - Game 5 was the first game in the series to have a CLEAR over. Game 2 could have gone either way depending on what the O/U was when you made a bet. So with that said, we like the under if not just based solely on history. The Mavericks figured out it was in their best interest to push the ball and run up the score in an attempt to win. The Heat are going to be the team to control the tempo since they are the home team. And in the Heat's wins this series, the average total score is 175. So if they want to win, it is in their best interest to have a lower scoring game. After giving up more than 100 points in Game 5, their top priority will be to beef up their defense not necessarily beef up their scoring.
 
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SIMON GREEN (ksp)

30* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +125

40* Milwaukee Brewers -125

35* Detroit Tigers -120

20* Florida Marlins +109

CRAIG DAVIS (ksp)

40* Oakland Athletics ML +110

CHASE DIAMOND (ksp)

10 Dimes New York Yankees ML -200
 

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SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +108 over SAN DIEGO

In terms of 2011 park effects, Petco ranks 28th in runs (deflating runs by 27%), and 24th in HR (deflating HR by 25%). For John Lannan, the news is even better, as San Diego ranks last in MLB with a .584 OPS at home. Lannan went 8-8 with a 4.65 ERA in 143 IP last year. A disastrous 1H resulted in ticket back to AA and then Lannan came back strong in his final 11 starts (3.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher and with an excellent batted ball profile of 51%/18%/30%. That’s GB/line-drive/FB. He threw a two-hitter in seven frames vs. the Pads on May 27 and over his last three starts he’s given up one earned run in 20 innings for an ERA of 0.45. Clayton Richard has an ERA of 4.20 and a xERA of 4.97. 41 K’s and 30 walks in 71 innings is part of the reason for his high xERA and his control does not seem to be getting any better. Richard has walked 10 and struck out 10 over his last three starts and in his two June starts he has a 1.71 WHIP. We get the better pitcher, the better offense and a small tag to boot. Play: Washington +108 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. Mets +106 over PITTSBURGH

The Mets have won six of their last eight games and over that stretch they’ve scored 43 runs and batted .273. And it’s not like they faced a bunch of stiffs either. In fact, over that eight-game span, the Mets faced Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo and last night they whacked Charlie Morton. The Mets are playing good baseball right now. The Pirates are not. In fact, the Pirates haven’t had anything more than a single since Wednesday against Arizona, the same day catcher Chris Snyder went down with a herniated disk - he’s one of the club’s nine players on the disabled list and the Pirates have been completely punchless all week. With Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh’s other catcher, out until at least late July, the Bucs have another glaring hole in a lineup that’s already missing third baseman Pedro Alvarez and continually juggling right fielders. Dusty Brown and Wyatt Toregas, the Pirates’ current catchers, are a combined 15 for 86 (.174) in their careers. To make matters worse they’ll have to see a knuckleballer here in R.A. Dickey. Over his last four starts, Dickey is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.85. James MacDonald was roughed up against a struggling Phillies team in his last start. He has a BAA of .270, a WHIP of 1.52 and an ERA of 4.97. He also has a tilted FB/GB profile of 39%/44% and this really has to be considered one of the better plays of the day. The Metropolitans are on fire and the Pirates are seeing BB’s. Play: N.Y. Mets +106 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +105 over Cleveland

You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Yankees but the fact is, they’re beating up on these struggling teams. The Yanks took their frustrations of being swept by the superior Red Sox out on the free-falling Indians last night and they’ll likely continue that here. The Cleveland offense has been in a tailspin since its hit rate-aided six-week surge at the beginning of the season, a stretch that saw them hit .271/.342/.433 (.775). Since then the Indians have gone 8-14, scoring 3.2 RPG and batting just .226/.287/.355 (.642). This series marks the first meeting this season between the Indians and Yankees. A year ago, New York took 6-of-8 from Cleveland, outscoring the Indians, by a 2-to-1 margin (60-30) and piling up 7½ RPG. Mitch Talbot can’t throw strikes, he has a WHIP of 1.75 and a BAA of .313. It’s rope after rope after rope when this guy pitches and current Yanks are hitting .313 off him. Then there’s Bartolo Colon. Go ahead, admit it. You giggled when the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon in February. You shook your head when he made the team in late March, and chuckled to yourself when he ended up in the starting rotation in April. We did too. And yet 2011 is the only year that matters, since this is such a different pitcher than the 2006-09 version (which was--and somewhat remains--the source of pessimism). Revolutionary medical treatment or not, it may be time to admit that this Colon is for real. He's put up monster skills across the board. The 3.26 ERA is not a hit%/strand rate mirage. Hit and strand are perfectly normal--as well as hr/f, which is even a touch high--and xERA agrees that his ERA is well earned. His triple-digit BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) ranks fourth among AL SP, and Colon has been consistent through the season: 130 BPV in April 116 BPV in May. Nothing could have foretold this story of a 38-year-old returning with such success. But amazingly, there's no obvious red flags in his 2011 skill set itself--the main risks are outside his performance on the mound (age, workload, poor recent track record, etc.) and until we see something different, Colon is a solid play against anyone right now. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +105 (Risking 2 units).


Kansas City +133 over L.A. ANGELS

The last time the Angels scored more than three runs was back on May 30. Over that stretch, covering nine games, the Halos have scored 18 runs and batted .231. They have one win over that span and it came against Ivan Nova and the Yanks when they exploded for three runs. The Angels have lost six straight and will face Felipe Paulino. Shoulder inflammation shelved Paulino’s upside arm in second half last year. While overall skills didn't grow like expected, they did in flashes and this year he looks real sharp. In 31 frames, Paulino has whiffed 25 and walked just 10. He also has an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 57%/16%/27%. Paulino’s W/L record of 0-4 is one of the most misleading records in the league. Paulino has pitched mostly out of the pen this season but has started the past two games in which he allowed one earned run in 11.2 innings. Over his last three appearances covering 16 frames he’s allowed eight hits and one run and two of those three games were against Toronto and Texas. The man can pitch and he’s actually more comfortable in the starter’s role. In 53 innings, Joel Pinero has struck out 23 batters. He does have pinpoint control and he has a very decent GB profile but his xERA of 4.47 is a more accurate account of his skills than his 3.76 actual ERA. Pinero will keep the Angels in a lot of games. Having said that, this one is more about playing against the slumping Angels taking back a tag with a hurler that is most definitely flying under the radar. Play: Kansas City +133 (Risking 2 units).
 
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Early Sharp Moves

909 - Under 8 Arizona / Florida

913 - Over 8.5 LA Dodgers / Colorado

921 - Under 8.5 Texas / Minnesota
 

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Hot pitchers
-- Reds won Leake's last three starts (2-0, 2.70).
-- Lee has a 1.95 RA in his last five home starts.
-- Dickey is 2-1, 1.85 in his last four starts. McDonald is 1-1, 2.78 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Carpenter is 0-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts. Milwaukee won last six Greinke starts (3-0, 3.15 last three).
-- Lilly has a 2.37 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lannan is 1-0, 0.90 in his last three starts. Richard has a 2.41 RA in his last three starts, but San Diego scored a total of four runs in losing his last four starts.

-- Colon is 2-1, 2.86 in his last four starts. Talbot has a 2.13 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Pineda is 2-1, 1.64 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.
-- Paulino is 1-0, 1.54 in his first two starts for the Royals.

Cold pitchers
-- Lincecum has a 5.89 RA in his last three starts.
-- Garza is 1-2, 5.57 in his last four starts.
-- Minor is 0-2, 5.16 in three starts this season. Lyles is 0-1, 4.91 in his two starts this season.
-- Vazquez is 1-3, 7.30 in his last seven starts.
-- Colorado lost Hammel's last seven starts (0-4, 5.35 last six).

-- Lackey is 1-2, 11.02 in his last three starts. Morrow is 1-2, 5.57 in his last six starts.
-- Baker is 1-2, 5.05 in his last six starts. Lewis is 1-1, 7.64 in his last three starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-2, 6.30 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer has a 10.24 RA in his last four starts.
-- Gonzalez, who the White Sox traded TWICE, is 0-2, 4.32 in his last four starts. Danks is 1-3, 6.75 in his last five starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-3, 6.63 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Over is 11-3 in Mets' last fourteen road games.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in Phillies' last seventeen home games.
-- Under is 10-5-2 in Arizona's last seventeen road games.
-- Seven of last ten Atlanta road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-3-2 in last fifteen games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 12-7 in last nineteen games at Petco Park.
-- Under is 16-3 in San Francisco's last nineteen home games.

-- Six of last seven Seattle road games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six games at Camden Yards stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-3 in Cleveland's last twelve road games.
-- Nine of White Sox' last twelve home games went over the total.
-- Four of Twins' last five home games went over the total.
-- Six of Kansas City's last seven road games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won eight of their last twelve home games.
-- Mets won six of their last eight games.
-- Braves won seven of their last nine road games.
-- Milwaukee won 15 of its last 20 games. Cardinals won eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Giants won seven of their last ten games.
-- San Diego won nine of its last fourteen games.

-- Red Sox won nine of their last ten road games.
-- Tampa Bay won three of its last four games. Orioles won five of their last six games.
-- Twins won seven of their last nine games. Texas won six of its last seven road games.
-- White Sox are 9-5 in their last fourteen home games.
-- Detroit won nine of its last twelve games. Mariners are 7-4 in their last eleven road games.
-- Royals won their last two games, allowing four runs.

Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost its last four games, allowing 26 runs. Marlins lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Cubs lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
-- Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
-- Astros lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Washington lost 15 of its last 22 games.
-- Colorado lost 13 of its last 20 games. Dodgers are 4-8 in their last 12 road games.
-- Reds lost five of their last six road games.

-- Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
-- Indians lost seven of their last eight games. Bronx lost 10 of its last 15 home games.
-- Oakland lost ten of its last eleven games.
-- Angels lost their last six games in a row, scoring a total of 12 runs.

Umpires
-- Cin-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nelson games.
-- Chi-Phil-- Four of last five Johnson games went over.
-- NY-Pitt-- Over is 6-4 in Layne's games behind the dish.
-- Atl-Hst-- Eight of last nine Darling games stayed under total.
-- Az-Fla-- Five of last six Miller games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- Favorites won five of Campos' six games behind plate.
-- LA-Col-- Six of seven Reyburn games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-SD-- Under is 8-3-1 in Diaz games this season.

-- Clev-NY-- Five of last six Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Underdogs are 5-5 (+$130) in last ten Carlson games.
-- Tex-Minn-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Nauert games.
-- TB-Balt-- Five of last seven TWelke games went over total.
-- Sea-Det-- Underdogs won six of last seven Everitt games.
-- A's-Chi-- Five of last six Hickox games stayed under total.
-- KC-LA-- Eight of last nine Davis games went over the total.
 

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