VegasButcher - MLB
Chicago Cubs -103
The Brewers are bad against right-handed pitchers this year (#25 overall) but they are atrocious against lefties. Ranking dead last in the league offensively against left-handers, they have a 30 wRC+ against them, a terrible 0.213 wOBA, and 0.082 ISO ranking 28th in the league. I think Travis Wood should have a strong start in this one. He already has a SIERA of 3.3, which is over a run lower than Lohse’s 4.4 mark, and now he’ll have an advantage of facing this weak Milwaukee offense. Lohse has allowed at least 1 HR in each of his 6 starts this year and his 9 HR’s allowed leads the league. Maybe today is the day when Kris Bryant finally gets his first homer of the year. Regardless, good matchup for the Cubs in this one and some solid value on them as my model has them at -139 in this matchup.
Houston Astros -103
Yesterday Weaver pitched a gem, so let’s see if another HR-prone pitcher could do the same thing again today against this Houston lineup. Matt Shoemaker has a 2.2 HR/9 rate and a GB-rate of only 27% on the season. Everyone knows that the Astros pack a lot of power in their lineup (#2 in ISO) so this matchup isn’t the best for him. By comparison Keuchel has a GB-rate of 65%, highest in the majors. Hopefully this Astros offense can crank out a homer or two tonight. In addition I still believe they have a strong advantage in the bullpen. LA’s relievers got a day-off yesterday but still pitched in 3 consecutive games prior to last night. Houston’s key guys are all in much better shape from the ‘freshness’ standpoint. Value on Houston in this one as my model has them at -138 in this one.
Chicago Cubs -103
The Brewers are bad against right-handed pitchers this year (#25 overall) but they are atrocious against lefties. Ranking dead last in the league offensively against left-handers, they have a 30 wRC+ against them, a terrible 0.213 wOBA, and 0.082 ISO ranking 28th in the league. I think Travis Wood should have a strong start in this one. He already has a SIERA of 3.3, which is over a run lower than Lohse’s 4.4 mark, and now he’ll have an advantage of facing this weak Milwaukee offense. Lohse has allowed at least 1 HR in each of his 6 starts this year and his 9 HR’s allowed leads the league. Maybe today is the day when Kris Bryant finally gets his first homer of the year. Regardless, good matchup for the Cubs in this one and some solid value on them as my model has them at -139 in this matchup.
Houston Astros -103
Yesterday Weaver pitched a gem, so let’s see if another HR-prone pitcher could do the same thing again today against this Houston lineup. Matt Shoemaker has a 2.2 HR/9 rate and a GB-rate of only 27% on the season. Everyone knows that the Astros pack a lot of power in their lineup (#2 in ISO) so this matchup isn’t the best for him. By comparison Keuchel has a GB-rate of 65%, highest in the majors. Hopefully this Astros offense can crank out a homer or two tonight. In addition I still believe they have a strong advantage in the bullpen. LA’s relievers got a day-off yesterday but still pitched in 3 consecutive games prior to last night. Houston’s key guys are all in much better shape from the ‘freshness’ standpoint. Value on Houston in this one as my model has them at -138 in this one.
