SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, MAY 8
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Atlanta (4-5 SU and ATS)
The Hawks will try to get back in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they host Game 3 inside Philips Arena. Orlando dominated Game 1 with a 114-71 victory as a nine-point home favorite, then the Magic pulled away in the fourth quarter on Thursday and scored a 112-98 win as a 9½-point chalk. Orlando, which trailed by eight points at halftime, outscored Atlanta 28-15 in the fourth quarter to get the win, and had four players in double-digit scoring, with Dwight Howard (29 points, 17 rebounds) leading the charge. Vince Carter added 24 points, while Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis chipped in with 20 points each and combined for 12 assists. Orlando shot 55.9 percent from the floor Thursday and limited the Hawks to 41.3 percent shooting as the Magic won their sixth straight postseason game (5-1 ATS) and 12th straight overall (11-1 ATS). Orlando has won and covered in eight of the last nine meetings with Atlanta dating to January 2009, going 5-1 SU and ATS this year. Additionally, the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta, and the favorite has cashed in five straight in this rivalry. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in 19 straight Hawks-Magic battles, and the straight-up winner is on a huge 24-0-1 ATS surge in Atlanta’s last 25 playoff games. The Magic are 27-16 (24-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and have won 10 of their last 11 away from home (8-3-1 ATS), including 2-0 SU and ATS in the first round in Charlotte. Atlanta has been superb at home this season at 37-8 (28-17 ATS), averaging 103.7 points a game while allowing just 95.1. The Hawks went 3-1 SU and ATS at Philips Arena in the opening round against Milwaukee, including a huge 95-74 win in Game 7 on Sunday, cashing as an 8½-point favorite. Orlando is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 49-23-1 on Saturday, 38-18-1 against Southeast Division teams, 21-5-1 as a favorite, 13-3 as a road favorite, 6-0-1 after getting one day off and 4-0 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta, swept out of the conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavs (0-3-1 ATS), has cashed in four of five home games, but it is on pointspread skids of 2-5 overall, 2-6 after a non-cover, 2-8 against Southeast Division teams, 1-6 after a straight-up loss and 0-5-1 in conference semifinal action. The Magic have topped the total in seven of 11 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” streaks of 52-23-1 after one day off, 5-2-1 as a playoff favorite, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta carries “over” trends of 20-8 after a non-cover, 8-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on Saturday, but it is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-3 after a straight-up loss, 8-3 as a playoff underdog and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. In this series, the under has been the play in six of seven overall and six of eight in Georgia, though Game 2 soared over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) at Utah (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the fifth-seeded Jazz when the two meet for Game 3 of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
After hanging on for a five-point victory in Game 1 on Sunday, Los Angeles took a 2-0 series lead with Tuesday’s 111-103 victory in Game 2, cashing as a 5½-point home chalk behind 30 points and eight assists from Kobe Bryant and 22 points and 15 rebounds from Pau Gasol. The Lakers, who have won four in a row (3-1 ATS), outrebounded Utah 58-40 in Game and outshot the Jazz 50.6 percent to 39.6 percent. The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), and split two games in Utah, winning 96-81 in February as a 5½-point underdog. Overall, Los Angeles is on a 20-6 roll against the Jazz overall (16-9-1 ATS). The Lakers are 24-20 (18-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of their last eight (SU and ATS) overall on the highway, including going 1-2 SU and ATS in Oklahoma City in the opening round. Conversely, the Jazz dominate in front of the home fans, going 35-9 (29-13-2 ATS) this season and they come into this one having won 13 of 14 in Salt Lake City (11-3 ATS). Utah went 3-0 SU and ATS in three first-round home games against Denver. Los Angeles has cashed in nine of its last 11 Saturday games and five of seven as a playoff underdog, but it is on negative ATS streaks of 2-6 on the road, 2-8 after a straight-up win, 1-4 as a road ‘dog and 1-11 after a spread-cover. The Jazz are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 36-17-3 overall, 37-15-2 as a favorite, 18-6-2 as a home favorite, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 7-1-1 on Saturday and 4-1-1 as a playoff favorite. The Lakers have topped the total in five of six overall, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 after three or more days off, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 12-4 as a road underdog and 10-4 as a pup of less than five points. On the opposite side, Utah has stayed below the posted number in 11 of 15 at home against teams with winning road records and seven of nine against winning teams, but it is on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 6-0 after a straight-up loss and 5-0 in conference semifinal action. In this rivalry, the under is 7-2 in the last nine games, including 4-0 in the last four played in Utah, but the over cashed in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (12-17) at Philadelphia (18-11)
The Braves give young right-hander Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.55 ERA) his first start of the season, while the streaking Phillies counter with Joe Blanton as this three-game weekend series between N.L. East rivals continues at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia got a complete-game, two-hitter from 47-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer on Friday and won its fourth in a row by routing Atlanta 7-0. The Phillies, who have surrendered just three runs during their four-game win streak, have also won six of their last seven, and they’re on additional surges of 45-22 at home, 5-1 versus the N.L. East and 21-8 against right-handed starters. However, Charlie Manuel’s squad has dropped 11 of 15 on Saturday. The Braves are 1-3 on their current road trip and they’ve lost 12 of 16 overall, scoring three runs or fewer in 10 of the 12 defeats. Bobby Cox’s club has also lost 10 of 11 on the road and is in further slumps of 3-14 against N.L. East rivals, 3-7 against right-handed starters and 1-9 versus winning teams. The one positive for the Braves: They’ve won 10 of 14 on Saturday. These teams faced off two weeks ago in Atlanta, and the Phillies took two of three. Going back to last season Philadelphia is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Medlen has made 12 relief appearances this season and he’s surrendered six runs (five earned), 16 hits and three walks while striking out 16 over 17 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old California native made four starts as a rookie last year, giving up 13 runs in 18 1/3 innings (6.38 ERA), with the Braves going 1-3 in those four contests.
Medlen has faced the Phillies seven times (all in relief), allowing six runs on 10 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA). Blanton, who spent the first month of the season on the disabled list, finally made his first start Monday and got smacked around by the Cardinals, allowing four runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 home loss. Including three playoff starts, Blanton has allowed 22 runs (21 earned) in his last five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings (6.23 ERA). Behind Blanton, the Phillies are on runs of 17-8 at home and 15-7 versus the N.L. East, but they’ve lost Blanton’s last four Saturday outings. Since getting traded from Oakland to Philadelphia in the middle of the 2008 season, Blanton has faced the Braves six times, going 1-1 with a 5.42 ERA. However, in two August starts two weeks apart last year, Blanton pitched seven innings in each contest and held Atlanta to three total runs (two earned), with Philadelphia winning both games by a 3-2 score. The Braves are on “under” runs of 13-5-1 overall, 8-3-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1-1 against the N.L. East, but the over is 5-2-1 in their last eight on Saturday. Meanwhile, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia lately, including 13-7-1 at home, 11-6 versus division rivals, 14-4 against losing teams, 5-1 at home against losing teams and 25-13-2 versus right-handed starters. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Blanton’s last six starts overall, but the under is 6-2-2 in his last 10 against the N.L. East and 5-1 in his last six on Saturday. Finally, the under has been the play in 10 of the last 14 series meetings and five of the last six clashes at Citizens Bank, and the under is 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts against Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (20-8) at Boston (15-15)
CC Sabathia (4-1, 2.74 ERA) looks to atone for a poor Opening Night outing at Fenway Park when he leads the Yankees against Clay Buchholz (3-2, 2.97) and the Red Sox in the middle game of a weekend series between division rivals. New York used a six-run sixth inning to bust Friday’s game wide open and cruised to a 10-3 victory, running its winning streak to five in a row while halting Boston’s four-game uptick. Additionally, the Yankees have followed up a 1-4 slump by winning eight of nine, with all eight wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 20 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 26 of their 28 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. The defending champs are on further runs of 39-15 overall, 43-14 against divisional foes, 61-22 versus right-handed starters and 5-1 on Saturday. Despite Friday’s debacle, Boston is still 11-6 in its last 17 games, going 8-3 at Fenway during this stretch, and the Sox have won five in a row against left-handed starters. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-17 against the A.L. East and 4-18 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600. The Yankees have now won three straight meetings against Boston – all at Fenway Park – since losing on Opening Night. Also, since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, New York is on a 12-2 roll against its archrivals, winning five of the last seven at Fenway. Still, the home team is 15-7 in the last 22 head-to-head battles.
Sabathia gave up five runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings in a season-opening start in Boston on April 4, failing to get a decision in New York’s 9-7 loss. Since then, however, the hefty lefty has delivered five straight quality starts, giving up a combined nine runs (eight earned) in 37 1/3 innings (1.71 ERA). On Monday, he limited Baltimore to a run on six hits in eight innings of a 4-1 home win. With Sabathia on the bump, New York is on positive stretches of 21-5 overall, 10-3 on the highway, 9-2 against the A.L. East, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-0 in the second game of a series. Since the Opening Night loss in Boston, Sabathia is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in three road games. Finally, he’s now 5-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 12 career starts (playoffs included) against the Red Sox (2-3, 5.05 ERA in seven games at Fenway Park). Buchholz surrendered a season-high four runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels on Monday, but the Red Sox offense picked him up and rolled to a 17-8 victory. Buchholz is now 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in three home games this year, with Boston supporting the right-hander with 7.3 runs per game. The Sox have won 12 of Buchholz’s last 16 starts, but they’re 4-12 in his last 16 against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five Saturday efforts. Buchholz has a 5.74 ERA in three starts against the Yankees, with Boston losing all three games. However, he pitched well in two of the contests, giving up one run in six innings of a 4-1 home loss in 2008 and two runs in six inning of a 5-0 road loss last August. New York is on “over” runs of 15-5-2 on the road, 4-1-1 against righty starters, 4-1 on Saturday, 17-4 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 4-1 when Sabathia faces division rivals. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in five straight games on Saturday, four of five against lefty starters, seven of Buchholz’s last nine starts overall and five of his last six home outings. Finally, the over has cashed in three of four meetings between these teams this year, and seven of the last eight clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER