Dave essler
960 PIT (-120) Pinnacle vs
959 NYM Analysis: Leaned this way and see what I'd hoped for in the market this AM. I am fairly certain that Cole's outing in Atlanta was the anomaly. At home this season he's thrown 27 innings, allowed 15 hits, and opposing hitters have a .161 batting average against him. Most of the Mets' lineup has only seen him once, with none of them taking him deep, and that's even harder to do in this park. That's relevant because most teams, especially the Mets, aren't likely to string a bunch of hits together against Cole. Wheeler's numbers look pretty solid, but he hasn't been getting into or through the 7th - only once this season, and we clearly don't trust the Met's back end. Also, he's faced some lineups that were quite conducive to looking good. Aside from facing Washington twice, the oçnly other decent offense he's faced was Arizona on the road. He didn't give up much, be he was very fortunate if you look deeper into that game. The caveat is that the Pirates haven't seen him, but they're at home, with a better bullpen and a better starter. Last night they were in a tough spot, a first-game-back after being in a quick in-and-out trip to Atlanta. The Pirates might not be lighting things up, but they're over .500 at home at essentially a "pick the winner" price - I doubt there a are tons of runs, hence lean under - but am convinced that the Pirates score at least one more than the Mets.
