SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, MAY 22
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) at Boston (10-3 SU and ATS)
The streaking Celtics look to get a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference finals against the suddenly sinking Magic as this best-of-7 series shifts to TD Garden for Game 3. Boston went on the road and upended Orlando in Games 1 and 2, opening the series with a 92-88 win as a 6½-point underdog Sunday, then pulling off a 95-92 upset as a seven-point pup Tuesday night. In the latter contest, Paul Pierce had 28 points, and Rajon Rondo had 25 points and eight assists for the Celts, who shot 45.9 percent from the floor (34 of 74), despite a 5-for-15 effort from 3-point range. Boston has now won five in a row SU and ATS, going against the teams with the top two regular-season records in the NBA, taking three in a row from top overall seed Cleveland prior to the two wins at Orlando. Orlando’s Dwight Howard, who had just 13 points in Game 1, poured in 30 in Game 2 and had eight rebounds, but only two of his teammates reached double figures, with Vince Carter and J.J. Redick adding 16 apiece. The Magic shot just 39.4 percent (28 of 71) and lost despite a sizable edge at the free-throw line, hitting 29 of 38 (76.3 percent) to Boston’s 22 of 28 (78.6 percent). These rivals have split their last eight meetings at the betting window, with Orlando going 5-3 SU in that stretch, but Boston is 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in six meetings this season with the Magic. Going back to Game 7 of last year’s second-round playoff series – won by Orlando – the visitor and the underdog have covered in seven straight in this rivalry, and the Magic are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Beantown. The SU winner has cashed in all 13 of the Celts’ playoff contests and in 23 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 17-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 18 contests. Boston is 29-18 SU but just 17-29-1 ATS this season at the Garden, where it averages 99.7 ppg (48.5 percent shooting) and gives up 95.9 (45.6 percent). However, in the playoffs, the Celtics are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Orlando is 29-16 (26-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 12 of its last 14 away from home (10-3-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs during sweeps of Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively. Along with their 10-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 overall, 6-1 against the Southeast Division, 5-1 at the Garden and 4-1 laying points, though they have failed to cash in four straight games following three or more days off. Despite the two setbacks at home, the Magic remain on a slew of positive pointspread sprees, including 20-7-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 10-3-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 after a SU loss, 6-2 after three or more days off and 16-6 against the Atlantic Division. The lone negative: a 1-5-1 ATS mark in Orlando’s last seven starts as a ‘dog, all on the road.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 9-2 in conference finals contests (5-1 last six) and 5-2 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall (5-1 last six), 39-12-1 after a non-cover, 27-9 after a SU loss and 8-3 as a pup (all on the road). Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 10 clashes overall, including five of six this season. Also, the under is on a 4-0 streak between these two in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
Boston (22-21) at Philadelphia (26-15)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89 ERA) looks to rebound from a horrendous start at Yankee Stadium when he matches up against Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24) and the Phillies as this three-game interleague series continues at Citizens Bank Park.
Boston scored a run in the top of the first inning on Friday, but was shutout thereafter and fell 5-1 to end a modest three-game winning streak. The Red Sox are just 4-5 in their last nine games, and they’ve lost seven of nine on the highway 20 of 29 against opponents with a winning record and four of five on Saturday. On the bright side, Boston is still on interleague runs of 63-24 overall, 30-13 in N.L. ballparks and 38-14 against the N.L. East. The Phillies are on a 14-5 roll, having won nine of 13 at home during this stretch. They’re also on positive runs of 6-1 against winning teams and 41-16 when facing right-handed starters at home, but they’ve still lost four of six in interleague play (all against the A.L. East), eight of 10 interleague home games, 37 of 54 interleague games against right-handed starters and 12 of 17 on Saturday. Despite Friday’s result, Boston has owned this rivalry, winning 13 of the last 17 meetings, going 4-2 in the last six battles in Philadelphia.
Matsuzaka got crushed by the Yankees on Monday, giving up seven runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, and although he didn’t factor in the decision, Boston lost 11-9 by allowing four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Take away one strong outing against Toronto (one run allowed in seven innings of a 6-1 home win), and Matsuzaka has surrendered 18 runs in his three other starts over 14 2/3 innings (11.05 ERA) since coming off the disabled list at the beginning of this month. The Red Sox are still 38-16 in Matsuzaka’s last 54 starts overall, 17-7 in his last 24 on the road and 10-4 in his last 14 Saturday efforts. He’s also 0-1 with a 12.54 ERA in two road games this year, and in his lone career start against the Phillies last June, he gave up four runs on seven hits in four innings, but Boston prevailed 11-6. Kendrick has turned things around lately, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts (all Phillies wins). On Monday, he limited the Pirates to two runs in eight innings, rolling to a 12-2 victory. He’s still just 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four home games this season, but in his last two he allowed just two runs in 15 innings in wins over Pittsburgh and St. Louis (4-0). Going back to last year, Philadelphia has won five of Kendrick’s last six home outings. Kendrick lasted just three innings in his only career start against Boston back in 2008, getting rocked for six runs on six hits and two walks in a 7-4 home loss. Throw in a poor relief outing last year – he gave up three runs in two innings of a 5-2, 12-inning defeat – and the right-hander is 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA versus the Red Sox. The Sox are riding “over” streaks of 9-3-2 in the second game of a series, 7-0 on Saturday and 4-1 when Dice-K pitches away from Fenway. Also, the Phillies are on “over” runs of 4-1 in interleague play (all vs. the A.L. East), 4-2 when hosting A.L. teams, 9-4 on Saturday, 16-6 behind Kendrick overall, 4-1 when Kendrick starts on Saturday and 4-1 when he pitches against the A.L.
Finally, the over has cashed in eight of the last 12 Phillies-Red Sox battles overall and six of the last nine meetings at Citizens Bank. However, Friday’s series opener stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Detroit (24-18) at L.A. Dodgers (24-18)
The surging Dodgers send rookie John Ely (2-1, 3.51 ERA) to the mound for his fourth big-league start, while the Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga (1-0, 1.59) as these teams continue their three-game interleague series at Dodger Stadium.
Behind an outstanding effort from Chad Billingsley and two relievers, Los Angeles held the Tigers to just a run and four hits in Friday’s series opener and prevailed 4-1. The Dodgers are have won 10 of their last 11 and 11 of their last 13, going 7-2 at home during this span, stretching their record to 14-7 at Dodger Stadium. On top of that, L.A. is on upticks of 13-3 against right-handed starters, 20-6 versus righties at home, 28-11 on Saturday and 4-0 in the second game of a series.
That said, Joe Torre’s squad has been a disaster in interleague play the last few years, going 30-52 in the last 82 overall and 6-21 in the last 26 against the A.L. Central. The Tigers are still 7-4 in their last 11 games, but they’ve now lost five of six on the road and seven of nine in National League ballparks. On the positive end Jim Leyland’s club is on impressive runs of 4-0 on Saturday, 53-24 in interleague action, 6-3 versus the N.L. West and 42-20 when facing right-handed starters in interleague play.
These teams met two years ago in Motown, and Detroit swept a three-game series, outscoring Los Angeles 22-11. Prior to that, the Dodgers had won five of six from the Tigers in two series in 2003 (road) and 2005 (home). Galarraga lost a competition for the Tigers’ No. 5 spot in the rotation in spring training, but he returned from Triple-A on Sunday and rolled to a 5-1 home win over the Red Sox, giving up just one run on three hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. It was the right-hander’s first big-league start since Sept. 5 of last year. Going back to last season, the Tigers are 3-7 in Galarraga’s last 10 starts overall, 4-10 in his last 14 road contests and 1-4 in his last five on Saturday. However, they’re 6-2 behind Galarraga when he pitches against the National League. That includes a 5-0 win over the Dodgers in 2008, with Galarraga scattering three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings. Ely went a career-high seven innings against Houston on Monday, allowing just two hits and five walks in cruising to a 6-2 victory. Since a disappointing big-league debut at the Mets on April 28 (five runs, six hits, three walks in six innings of a 7-3 loss), Ely has gone 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in three starts, yielding just five runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all three games, with the 24-year-old right-hander posting a 21-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In two home starts, Ely is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA. Detroit carries a slew of “under” trends, including 8-2-1 overall, 15-6-1 in N.L. parks and 16-5-1 against the N.L. West, and with Galarraga starting, the “under” is on runs of 8-3 overall, 9-3 on the road and 4-0 against the N.L. West. For Los Angeles, the under has hit in four straight Saturday contests, 12 of 17 interleague home games, six straight against the A.L. Central and seven of 10 against right-handed starters. However, the over is 8-4 in its last 12 at Dodger Stadium, and all four of Ely’s big-league starts have climbed over the total. Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of 10 meetings since 2003, including four of the last five.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER