DAVID MALINSKY
4* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 +140 over CHICAGO CUBS
We cashed a ticket against Carlos Zambrano in Cincinnati the last time that he took the mound, noting that his K’s were far too low, and his fly-ball rates were far too high, for his style of pitching. That pattern continued, in a game in which he had as many fly-ball outs as K’s + ground-outs combined, which is not a way for him to succeed. Yet we still get fair market value here because of his past reputation, and the fact that his last four starts have only shown a 2-1/4.44, instead of the disasters they could have been. He owes some of that to the magical charms of Baseball, but what the sport gives it also comes back to take away.
Here is the crux of the matter – in those last four games Zambrano has 31 fly-ball outs, while only getting 12 K’s, over 26.1 IP. Those are frightening ratios for his pitching style. But there has been some magic involved – Zambrano has only allowed one HR in that span, vs. Justin Upton in the first inning at Arizona four starts back, and since that pitch he has sweated through those 31 fly-outs without a single ball leaving the park. Yes, you can make good pitches and get some harmless fly balls to fall into the gloves of the OF. But this is taking things to a major extreme, and the low K counts make it even more of a “Baseball Roulette” issue with a Cub defense that is only prevented from being on the bottom of our ratings by the awful showings of the Astros. Fenway Park is not a place to be allowing contact with a bad defense behind you, and along with 19 Red Sox Hits last night there were also four Chicago errors. That disaster took a major toll on the Cub middle relief corps, with Scott Maine, James Russell and Jeff Samardzija all “out” for tonight.
Things set up much differently for the Red Sox. Alfredo Aceves is not just a reliever making a one-time start, but a guy that the Yankees had wanted to make a starter in the past before he was injured. In working to a 2.60 out of the bullpen so far he has shown that he is at full health, and he got a good tune-up for this role when he worked three full IP vs. Baltimore on Monday, while also having a stint of 67 pitches over 4.2 frames vs. Minnesota two weeks ago. He can make a couple of good passes through a Chicago lineup that lacks experience against him, and then all key Boston arms are rested and ready to step up, with only Scott Atchison being used from the bullpen on Friday. It brings us a game that can break wide open, and we use the Run Line as the tool to best maximize.