PREDICTION MACHINE (NBA PLAYOFFS)
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
551 8:00 PM SA @LAC 2.5 -1.5 53.0 $7
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
552 8:00 PM @LAC SA 104.1 102.6 54.3%
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
552 8:00 PM SA @ LAC 203.5 206.6 Over 53.7% $14
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
551 8:00 PM SA @LAC 2.5 -1.5 53.0 $7
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
552 8:00 PM @LAC SA 104.1 102.6 54.3%
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
552 8:00 PM SA @ LAC 203.5 206.6 Over 53.7% $14
Don Anthony Sports - MLB Total of the Week
40* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8
One of my favorite pitchers to fade in the Majors is Arizona starter, Jeremy Hellickson. This guy is prone to the big inning, commits a ton of walks, and does not have the 2 strike put out pitch that you need to have success in the pros. I expect the Dodgers to hit him hard tonight. LA is plating nearly 6 runs a game at home. We also have a steady 10 MPH blowing out to RF, which should help carry the ball out tonight. That's great news for Gonzo. Almost every trend there is, has the Dodgers going over tonight. LA has gone over the total in 18 of their last 26 home games, which includes 11-3-1 to the over facing a team with a losing record. When these two teams meet up, they score in bunches. The over is 6-1 the last 7 meetings between these two clubs. Look for a high scoring slug fest tonight.
40* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8
One of my favorite pitchers to fade in the Majors is Arizona starter, Jeremy Hellickson. This guy is prone to the big inning, commits a ton of walks, and does not have the 2 strike put out pitch that you need to have success in the pros. I expect the Dodgers to hit him hard tonight. LA is plating nearly 6 runs a game at home. We also have a steady 10 MPH blowing out to RF, which should help carry the ball out tonight. That's great news for Gonzo. Almost every trend there is, has the Dodgers going over tonight. LA has gone over the total in 18 of their last 26 home games, which includes 11-3-1 to the over facing a team with a losing record. When these two teams meet up, they score in bunches. The over is 6-1 the last 7 meetings between these two clubs. Look for a high scoring slug fest tonight.
Nite Owl Sports
Tonite’s game
Spurs at Clippers, starts approx. 5:10 Pacific
Current consensus lines – Game - Clippers -2.5, ML -145, total 203.5; First half - Clippers - 1.5 , 101;
1Q - Clippers -1/2 (-130) or -1/-105, 2Q - SA +1/2 (-110)
Picks
Top pick – SA/2Q +1/2 point (-110 or 115 odds) for 2.5 units
Other pick - Clippers/1Q -1/2 point (-125 odds) or -135 ML to win 1.5 units (risk 1.9 or 2 units to win 1.5 units) or -1/-105 for one unit
Support for our two partial game picks tonite
After the way the first six games have played out, especially games 2, 4, 5 and 6, it’s easy to make not only a decent case for either team, but also a decent case for going against either team, and same for either the Over or the Under. And getting 3 points ATS with my “live” play on the Clippers tonite, courtesy of my side/total teaser with the Under in last nite’s Atl-BK game, I’ll roll with that as my only full game play.
But after “digging” for some edges on the partial game lines, I found the following two good values – (i) Spurs at +1/2 point on 2Q line and (ii) Clips at -1/2 ATS (-125) or -135/ML on the 1Q line. In the 3 playoff series games held in LA, plus the most relevant (for tonite’s game) regular season game between these two (a Clips 4 point home win on Feb. 19), SA was not only 4-0 ATS vs the 2Q line, but out-scored the Clips by an average of 4 points in the 2Q, not surprising with SA having the stronger bench, and given that the “benches” of both teams typically get much more PT (playing time) in the 2Q than the 1Q. Another reason for SA’s success in 2Q when visiting the Clips has been that the ATS results of the 1Q and 2Q tend to reverse themselves more often than not, and the Clips have had the edge in the series lately for the 1Q when playing SA at home, specifically 3-1 ATS in those same 4 home games, with an average lead of 4 points after 1Q, incl 12 after the 1Q of game one.
I realize that it’s a bit “dicey” playing “quarter lines” for later quarters (2, 3 and 4), since what happens in those quarters can be affected by what happens in the previous quarter, and quarter line bets must be placed before the start of the game. And Spurs could come out very focused and energetic from the start and play a solid 1Q, after having lost game 6, like they did at the outset of game 2 in LA, where they “won” both the 1Q (by 4) and the 2Q (by 1), as they took a 5 point HT lead. On the other hand, SA did not cover the 1Q line in game 5 in LA, after their game 4 home loss. And the above uncertainty is the main reason why neither of the above “quarter line” picks” is all that strong.
GL if you decide to play one or both of my quarter line picks, and/or if you played my side/total teaser with Clips tonite at +3
Great Owl
Tonite’s game
Spurs at Clippers, starts approx. 5:10 Pacific
Current consensus lines – Game - Clippers -2.5, ML -145, total 203.5; First half - Clippers - 1.5 , 101;
1Q - Clippers -1/2 (-130) or -1/-105, 2Q - SA +1/2 (-110)
Picks
Top pick – SA/2Q +1/2 point (-110 or 115 odds) for 2.5 units
Other pick - Clippers/1Q -1/2 point (-125 odds) or -135 ML to win 1.5 units (risk 1.9 or 2 units to win 1.5 units) or -1/-105 for one unit
Support for our two partial game picks tonite
After the way the first six games have played out, especially games 2, 4, 5 and 6, it’s easy to make not only a decent case for either team, but also a decent case for going against either team, and same for either the Over or the Under. And getting 3 points ATS with my “live” play on the Clippers tonite, courtesy of my side/total teaser with the Under in last nite’s Atl-BK game, I’ll roll with that as my only full game play.
But after “digging” for some edges on the partial game lines, I found the following two good values – (i) Spurs at +1/2 point on 2Q line and (ii) Clips at -1/2 ATS (-125) or -135/ML on the 1Q line. In the 3 playoff series games held in LA, plus the most relevant (for tonite’s game) regular season game between these two (a Clips 4 point home win on Feb. 19), SA was not only 4-0 ATS vs the 2Q line, but out-scored the Clips by an average of 4 points in the 2Q, not surprising with SA having the stronger bench, and given that the “benches” of both teams typically get much more PT (playing time) in the 2Q than the 1Q. Another reason for SA’s success in 2Q when visiting the Clips has been that the ATS results of the 1Q and 2Q tend to reverse themselves more often than not, and the Clips have had the edge in the series lately for the 1Q when playing SA at home, specifically 3-1 ATS in those same 4 home games, with an average lead of 4 points after 1Q, incl 12 after the 1Q of game one.
I realize that it’s a bit “dicey” playing “quarter lines” for later quarters (2, 3 and 4), since what happens in those quarters can be affected by what happens in the previous quarter, and quarter line bets must be placed before the start of the game. And Spurs could come out very focused and energetic from the start and play a solid 1Q, after having lost game 6, like they did at the outset of game 2 in LA, where they “won” both the 1Q (by 4) and the 2Q (by 1), as they took a 5 point HT lead. On the other hand, SA did not cover the 1Q line in game 5 in LA, after their game 4 home loss. And the above uncertainty is the main reason why neither of the above “quarter line” picks” is all that strong.
GL if you decide to play one or both of my quarter line picks, and/or if you played my side/total teaser with Clips tonite at +3
Great Owl
VegasButcher (MLB)
Seattle Mariners +126
When this series started, Seattle was the team with a fatigued bullpen. Well, after losing two straight games to Houston the situation is reversed. Astros' closer Luke Gregerson has pitched in three straight games. Neshek and Qualls have appeared in two straight. By comparison Seattle's key guys have all had ample rest and should be much fresher in today's game. Taijuan Walker has pitched much better the last few games, allowing only 2 runs in 21.1 innings of work with 13 K's. In his last start he went 7 innings and only allowed 1 BB so hopefully that trend continues. McHugh continues to pitch very well also, but I think Seattle can get to him. When he faced them on 04/21 he only had 3 K's in 7.0 innings of work, allowing 7 hits + 2 BB's and 3 ER's. I expect another close game here but Seattle should have an advantage in the pen in the later innings.
Seattle Mariners +126
When this series started, Seattle was the team with a fatigued bullpen. Well, after losing two straight games to Houston the situation is reversed. Astros' closer Luke Gregerson has pitched in three straight games. Neshek and Qualls have appeared in two straight. By comparison Seattle's key guys have all had ample rest and should be much fresher in today's game. Taijuan Walker has pitched much better the last few games, allowing only 2 runs in 21.1 innings of work with 13 K's. In his last start he went 7 innings and only allowed 1 BB so hopefully that trend continues. McHugh continues to pitch very well also, but I think Seattle can get to him. When he faced them on 04/21 he only had 3 K's in 7.0 innings of work, allowing 7 hits + 2 BB's and 3 ER's. I expect another close game here but Seattle should have an advantage in the pen in the later innings.
