Foxsheets 5/15
Super Situations
MLB/ HOUSTON at SAN FRAN
Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL)
235-154 since 1997. ( 60.4% | 78.3 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )
Situational Power Trends
MLB/ WASH at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 17-10 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.
The average score was: WASHINGTON (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.9)
Super Situations
MLB/ HOUSTON at SAN FRAN
Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL)
235-154 since 1997. ( 60.4% | 78.3 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.4 units )
Situational Power Trends
MLB/ WASH at COLORADO
WASHINGTON is 17-10 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season.
The average score was: WASHINGTON (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.9)
jeff benton saturday (BIGGEST MLB RELEASE OF HIS CAREER)
1-0 yesterday...he wont with the blue jays for PLUS 20 dimes..overall, 37-41-3 for PLUS 5 dimes since i started posting....
BIGGEST BASEBALL PLAY OF HIS CAREER.
50 Dime play - the biggest ever I've releaaed in baseball in my career - on the Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 runs with Jon Lester over the Detroit Tigers and Dontrelle Willis. Both schedeuled starters must pitch or this play is obviousoy null and void.
Red Sox (-1½ runs)
Give Dontrelle Willis credit – after struggling for several years with his control, the veteran lefty appears to have finally become a serviceable major league pitcher once again. He’s 1-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five starts with the Tigers, and while he has walked 15 batters in 29 1/3 innings, he hasn’t issued more than three free passes in any start.
All that said, of the two left-handed pitchers on the mound in this game, 100 scouts out of 100 would take Jon Lester in a split-second over the D-Train. And Lester’s last four performances show why: After getaing off to yet another slow starts – he gave up 15 runs in 16 innings while in his first three games (all Boston losses) – Lester has turned things around in a big way in his last four outings, allowing a grand total of three runs, 14 hits and 10 walks while whiffing 30 in 27 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA).
The Red Sox prevailed in all four games by a combined tally of 20-7, including Sunday’s 9-3 victory over the Yankees (a huge win that kept Boston from being swept at home by its hated rivals). By winning Lester’s last four starts, the Sox are now 61-29 in his last 90 starts overall. And of their last 23 wins behind Lester, 21 have been by multiple runs, including 13 of the last 14.
Back to Willis real quick: This truly is a big litmus test to see how far he’s come. Because not only will he be facing a quality and patient Boston lineup (on that’s batting .280 against left-handed pitching this season inclueding .301 in the last 10 games), but he’s also coming off a long break. Willis was scratched from Monday’s start against the Yankees (illness), so he hasn’t been on the mound for 10 days. Will his wildness return after such a lengthy layoff? I wouldn’t be surprised.
Also, while the Red Sox have enjoyed facing lefty pitching this year, Detroit has not. Despite beating CC Sabathia 6-0 on Thursday, the Tigers are still batting just .233 at home against left-handers (and .230 over the past 10 games).
Finally, look at what the Red Sox have done to Detroit recently: With Friday’s 7-2 blowout victory, Boston has now won 39 of the last 55 meetings, including 12 of the last 15 overall and five straight in D-Town. During their recent 12-3 run against the Tigers since the beginning of the 2008 season, 11 of the victories (including all seven in Detroit) have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact we’re assured of the Red Sox (as the road team) getting all nine turns at bat, and I’ll confidently ride Lester and Boston to another comfootable Motown win here.
1-0 yesterday...he wont with the blue jays for PLUS 20 dimes..overall, 37-41-3 for PLUS 5 dimes since i started posting....
BIGGEST BASEBALL PLAY OF HIS CAREER.
50 Dime play - the biggest ever I've releaaed in baseball in my career - on the Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 runs with Jon Lester over the Detroit Tigers and Dontrelle Willis. Both schedeuled starters must pitch or this play is obviousoy null and void.
Red Sox (-1½ runs)
Give Dontrelle Willis credit – after struggling for several years with his control, the veteran lefty appears to have finally become a serviceable major league pitcher once again. He’s 1-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five starts with the Tigers, and while he has walked 15 batters in 29 1/3 innings, he hasn’t issued more than three free passes in any start.
All that said, of the two left-handed pitchers on the mound in this game, 100 scouts out of 100 would take Jon Lester in a split-second over the D-Train. And Lester’s last four performances show why: After getaing off to yet another slow starts – he gave up 15 runs in 16 innings while in his first three games (all Boston losses) – Lester has turned things around in a big way in his last four outings, allowing a grand total of three runs, 14 hits and 10 walks while whiffing 30 in 27 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA).
The Red Sox prevailed in all four games by a combined tally of 20-7, including Sunday’s 9-3 victory over the Yankees (a huge win that kept Boston from being swept at home by its hated rivals). By winning Lester’s last four starts, the Sox are now 61-29 in his last 90 starts overall. And of their last 23 wins behind Lester, 21 have been by multiple runs, including 13 of the last 14.
Back to Willis real quick: This truly is a big litmus test to see how far he’s come. Because not only will he be facing a quality and patient Boston lineup (on that’s batting .280 against left-handed pitching this season inclueding .301 in the last 10 games), but he’s also coming off a long break. Willis was scratched from Monday’s start against the Yankees (illness), so he hasn’t been on the mound for 10 days. Will his wildness return after such a lengthy layoff? I wouldn’t be surprised.
Also, while the Red Sox have enjoyed facing lefty pitching this year, Detroit has not. Despite beating CC Sabathia 6-0 on Thursday, the Tigers are still batting just .233 at home against left-handers (and .230 over the past 10 games).
Finally, look at what the Red Sox have done to Detroit recently: With Friday’s 7-2 blowout victory, Boston has now won 39 of the last 55 meetings, including 12 of the last 15 overall and five straight in D-Town. During their recent 12-3 run against the Tigers since the beginning of the 2008 season, 11 of the victories (including all seven in Detroit) have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact we’re assured of the Red Sox (as the road team) getting all nine turns at bat, and I’ll confidently ride Lester and Boston to another comfootable Motown win here.
Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/15/10 - 8:35 PM
dime bet ml 916 SDP (+101) SportBet vs 915 LOS --Analysis:The San Diego Padres +101 is the 1 Unit Buried Treasure for Saturday, May 15th.
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Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/15/10 - 7:10 PM
double-dime bet ml 907 NYM (+105) Bookmaker.com vs 908 FLA ----------Analysis: The New York Mets +105 is the DOUBLE STAR Play of the Day for Saturday, May 15th!
dime bet ml 916 SDP (+101) SportBet vs 915 LOS --Analysis:The San Diego Padres +101 is the 1 Unit Buried Treasure for Saturday, May 15th.
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Mike Hook | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/15/10 - 7:10 PM
double-dime bet ml 907 NYM (+105) Bookmaker.com vs 908 FLA ----------Analysis: The New York Mets +105 is the DOUBLE STAR Play of the Day for Saturday, May 15th!
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LIRIANO, F vs. (L) PETTITTE, A
Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML -128)
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) TALBOT, M vs. (L) MATUSZ, B
Play: Baltimore (ML -130)
Matchup: Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LIRIANO, F vs. (L) PETTITTE, A
Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML -128)
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) TALBOT, M vs. (L) MATUSZ, B
Play: Baltimore (ML -130)
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Street Rosenthal of Handicappingtrends
*300 Boston Red Sox -165
I am going with the Red Sox to take another game from the Tigers tonight. Here are a few trends that say they will. First, I have Red Sox as 16-2 SU since August 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. Also, the Red Sox are 21-4 SU since September 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series. Next, we have Tigers as a poor 5-25 SU since May 2004 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series. I also have a nice starter trend against the Tigers Dontrelle Willis that states he is 1-11 SU in game 2 or more of a series as a Dog and his opponent scored more than 6 runs in their previous game. Take the Red Sox for the win.
*200 Toronto Blue Jays -151
*200 LA Angels -140
*200 Chicago White Sox -140
*300 Boston Red Sox -165
I am going with the Red Sox to take another game from the Tigers tonight. Here are a few trends that say they will. First, I have Red Sox as 16-2 SU since August 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. Also, the Red Sox are 21-4 SU since September 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series. Next, we have Tigers as a poor 5-25 SU since May 2004 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series. I also have a nice starter trend against the Tigers Dontrelle Willis that states he is 1-11 SU in game 2 or more of a series as a Dog and his opponent scored more than 6 runs in their previous game. Take the Red Sox for the win.
*200 Toronto Blue Jays -151
*200 LA Angels -140
*200 Chicago White Sox -140
Scott Ferrall
MLB FREE PICKS FOR SATURDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS
BOSTON -160
Detroit Lester has won 3 straight and has a 0.98 ERA in his last 4 starts. Opponents are hitting a measly .154 vs Lester. Boston has won 8 of 11 and Big Papi is hot (.333 in May with 5 HR's and 11 RBI's)
WASHINGTON +220 (Game 1)
Colorado Livan lost to Jimenez earlier this season for his only loss. Livan is 2nd to Jimenez in ERA (1.04).. Jimenez lost his last start to Dodgers for his 1st loss. Nationals have won a surprising 5 of 6.
Arizona
ATLANTA -200 Tommy Hanson will bitch slap Arizona, losers of 7 straight. Hanson has won 2 in row. Atlanta has won 5 straight overall and are hot. Hanson allowed 4 hits in last start and Lopez is 0-3 in his career vs the Braves and sucks overall anyway.
MLB FREE PICKS FOR SATURDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS
BOSTON -160
Detroit Lester has won 3 straight and has a 0.98 ERA in his last 4 starts. Opponents are hitting a measly .154 vs Lester. Boston has won 8 of 11 and Big Papi is hot (.333 in May with 5 HR's and 11 RBI's)
WASHINGTON +220 (Game 1)
Colorado Livan lost to Jimenez earlier this season for his only loss. Livan is 2nd to Jimenez in ERA (1.04).. Jimenez lost his last start to Dodgers for his 1st loss. Nationals have won a surprising 5 of 6.
Arizona
ATLANTA -200 Tommy Hanson will bitch slap Arizona, losers of 7 straight. Hanson has won 2 in row. Atlanta has won 5 straight overall and are hot. Hanson allowed 4 hits in last start and Lopez is 0-3 in his career vs the Braves and sucks overall anyway.
