CHIP CHIRIMBES
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Mets
The New York Mets (17-20) are fighting to get to .500 and playing the National League's worst (14-23) Houston Astros should help. Houston has struggled behind J.A. Happ (2-4, 5.75 ERA) as they have won only two of his last 10 starts as he's given up over one and a half runners to reach base per inning. The Mets R.A. Dickey (1-4, 4.50) has thrown better then his record shows and this afternoon he gets a some support and a win. Take the METS!
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Mets
The New York Mets (17-20) are fighting to get to .500 and playing the National League's worst (14-23) Houston Astros should help. Houston has struggled behind J.A. Happ (2-4, 5.75 ERA) as they have won only two of his last 10 starts as he's given up over one and a half runners to reach base per inning. The Mets R.A. Dickey (1-4, 4.50) has thrown better then his record shows and this afternoon he gets a some support and a win. Take the METS!
GodsTips 1-of-6
LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY -136) Arizona (Collmeter)
By our standards this is a big chalk. But so many key metrics scream to bet on the Dodgers. They have gotten some of the ownership distractions behind them winning three straight and 4-of-5.
Arizona has lost five straight and they are 4-13 their last 17 on the road. For the year, the Diamondbacks are hitting just .230 on the road with a rancid .289 OBP. Their their last seven games overall it’s an even more embarrassing .220 BA and .282 OBP.
Arizona has a slugging percentage of just .296 in their last five games. That’s .53 points fewer than the Dodgers on base percentage in that span.
LA is 8-3 to left-handed starters. That’s a powerful split considering they are just 11-17 to righties. Speaking of splits, Chad Billingsley has a home ERA of 1.71 with a fantastic WHIP of 0.762.
Going back to last year Arizona is 27-63 in their last 90 road games against a right-handed starter. They are 17-38 versus an opponent with a losing record including 5-16 on the road.
The Dodgers are 35-17 in the series.
LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY -136) Arizona (Collmeter)
By our standards this is a big chalk. But so many key metrics scream to bet on the Dodgers. They have gotten some of the ownership distractions behind them winning three straight and 4-of-5.
Arizona has lost five straight and they are 4-13 their last 17 on the road. For the year, the Diamondbacks are hitting just .230 on the road with a rancid .289 OBP. Their their last seven games overall it’s an even more embarrassing .220 BA and .282 OBP.
Arizona has a slugging percentage of just .296 in their last five games. That’s .53 points fewer than the Dodgers on base percentage in that span.
LA is 8-3 to left-handed starters. That’s a powerful split considering they are just 11-17 to righties. Speaking of splits, Chad Billingsley has a home ERA of 1.71 with a fantastic WHIP of 0.762.
Going back to last year Arizona is 27-63 in their last 90 road games against a right-handed starter. They are 17-38 versus an opponent with a losing record including 5-16 on the road.
The Dodgers are 35-17 in the series.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +106 over MINNESOTA
The Twins have the worst record in the majors with 12 wins in 36 games. They can’t hit, they’ve lost six in a row and Nick Blackburn instills fear into nobody. Blackburn got tattooed in the first half of last year before reinvented himself in second half with a strong groundball profile. That strong groundball tilt has carried over to this season but so what. His BB/K ratio is awful at 16/20 in 41 innings and his xERA of 4.90 is almost a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.95. The Twinkies have won just two of Blackburn’s eight starts and lost both of his home starts, where he sports an ERA of 4.82. The opposition is hitting .295 off Blackburn and that sounds just about right when you consider his career BAA is .294. One of the most amazing streaks in baseball belongs to Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes has not won in 25 straight starts and that’s an almost impossible feat. He’s pitched well enough to win a few games already this year and we can assure you that the Jays are going to dig a little deeper here to get Reyes a win. He’s only allowed two bombs and 11 walks in 36 innings while striking out 24. His last five starts have come against the Rays twice, Texas, Detroit and Boston and after facing that quartet he takes a huge step down in class when facing the anemic Twins. Reyes has a 2.89 ERA on the road. The Jays have won three in a row. Last night’s 2-0 win was a flattering score to the Twins, as the Jays belted out 13 hits after torching the Red Sox for 21 hits and 15 runs in their two previous games. Jays are warming up again and have a better chance of winning here than the Twins. Play: Toronto +106 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco –104 over CHICAGO
Doug Davis should not be touched, even by the truly desperate. You have to go back to 2005 to find Davis with a season xERA under 4.44, and a WHIP under 1.50. He was 29 then. He is 35 now, and missed most of last year due to elbow issues. Seriously, don't even think about it. Ryan Vogelsong has struck out 17 in 21 frames while walking just seven. He’s coming off a one-hit gem in 6.1 innings against the Rockies and has now allowed just 13 hits in 20.1 frames. Vogelsong is 33 years old and while he could be a late bloomer, he’s never had long lasting success at this level so this is not about him. This is all about playing against a complete stiff throwing for the Cubbies. Play: San Francisco –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Boston +125 over NEW YORK
Maybe the Yanks aren’t that strong. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games and they’re having trouble hitting everyone. The Yanks have made the following pitchers look good in the last 10 games: Sean O’Sullivan, Kyle Davis, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny and Vin Mazzaro. Those are five starters (and we use that term loosely) that would have a hard time cracking the #5 slot on 90% of the teams in this league. Alex Rodriguez (.261), Derek Jeter (.268) and Jorge Posado (.168) make up a third of the Yanks line-up and all are at the twilight of their careers and aren’t coming close to producing the way they used to. Russell Martin’s numbers have been declining for four years and counting and Nick Swisher has batted under .250 in three of the last four years. This year, he’s hitting .221 with two jacks. It’s not rocket science as to why the Yanks are laboring and probably will the rest of the year. Now they’ll have to face Josh Beckett and his .174 BAA and 1.99 ERA. Need we say more? Boston's scoring hasn't kept pace quite yet, but the team's OPS in May (.784) has been the best in the league and it’s only a matter of time before the hitting starts scoring runs in bunches. Yeah, C.C. Sabathia is tough but we get a pitcher of equal value, a nice tag and a team with an offense that is on the verge of exploding. Play: Boston +125 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +113 over OAKLAND
Can the White Sox resurrect their season? Winning series at Seattle and LAA could be the start of turning things around for the White Sox, not to mention a series-opening win last night. The South Side has the AL's best OPS this month (.795) and that offensive success has come with games at Seattle and Los Angeles. Their offense has the most pronounced left-right preference this season, with the team hitting just .631 against LHP (OPS) while posting a .719 mark against RHP and they’ll see another righty here in Tyler Ross. Ross went 1-4 with a 5.49 ERA in 39 IP for the A’s last year. He’s started this season extremely well with a 2.51 ERA but don’t buy it. It is clear that Ross has been extremely lucky this season, as his skills are weaker than they were a year ago. His strikeout rate and command have both slipped and his ERA can be credited to his having allowed no home runs, a situation that will change soon. His xERA (4.61) tells us that a regression is forthcoming and that’s what we’re buying. Gavin Floyd is an ace, period. He has a high strikeout rate, outstanding command and a 51% groundball profile. The fact that Tyler Ross is favored over Gavin Floyd is ludicrous and this is without question the biggest overlay on the board today. Play: Chicago +113 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +148 over VANCOUVER (Series)
The first thing to note here is the price on the Sharks, which is an overlay to be sure when you consider that they disposed of two dangerous clubs that both could score goals in Anaheim and Detroit. Yeah, it took seven games to beat the Red Wings but after facing Zetterberg and Datsyuk, facing the Sedin twins is not a bigger challenge. Ryan Kesler is another big threat but after that production drops off dramatically. Let’s also not forget that the Sharkies were up 3-0 on Detroit and 3-1 in game four and were minutes away from a four-game sweep. The Canucks beat a Blackhawks team that backed into the playoffs on the final night of the regular season. The Canucks were up 3-0 but they also were blown out twice in that series. They then played a Preds team, whose leading scorer during the year had 23 goals. Vancouver dominated play for the most part but their inability to put the Preds away on a few occasions is troubling and so was that game five loss at home. Vancouver has really not been that impressive. Roberto Luongo could be in for a tough series. The Sharks can snipe with the best of them and we saw what the Blackhawks did to Luongo when they barraged him with shots. Hell, the Canucks even sat him for a game in that crucial game six before coming back to him in game 7. That’s how much confidence they had in Luongo so why should we have confidence? The Canucks had a great regular season but the post season is a different animal. Vancouver has been just good enough to win thus far against two beatable teams but they certainly have not been great. The Sharks have been. They withstood a charge from an outstanding Red Wings club. They dominated Detroit for long stretches and while the Canucks have home ice, we really don’t care. San Jose has shown they can beat anyone and win anywhere. They’re the better team with a better defense, better offense and a better goaltender. The fact that we get a take-back of almost 7½-5 sweetens the deal. This is the biggest series overlay of the playoffs thus far. Play: San Jose +148 to win series (Risking 3 units).
Toronto +106 over MINNESOTA
The Twins have the worst record in the majors with 12 wins in 36 games. They can’t hit, they’ve lost six in a row and Nick Blackburn instills fear into nobody. Blackburn got tattooed in the first half of last year before reinvented himself in second half with a strong groundball profile. That strong groundball tilt has carried over to this season but so what. His BB/K ratio is awful at 16/20 in 41 innings and his xERA of 4.90 is almost a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.95. The Twinkies have won just two of Blackburn’s eight starts and lost both of his home starts, where he sports an ERA of 4.82. The opposition is hitting .295 off Blackburn and that sounds just about right when you consider his career BAA is .294. One of the most amazing streaks in baseball belongs to Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes has not won in 25 straight starts and that’s an almost impossible feat. He’s pitched well enough to win a few games already this year and we can assure you that the Jays are going to dig a little deeper here to get Reyes a win. He’s only allowed two bombs and 11 walks in 36 innings while striking out 24. His last five starts have come against the Rays twice, Texas, Detroit and Boston and after facing that quartet he takes a huge step down in class when facing the anemic Twins. Reyes has a 2.89 ERA on the road. The Jays have won three in a row. Last night’s 2-0 win was a flattering score to the Twins, as the Jays belted out 13 hits after torching the Red Sox for 21 hits and 15 runs in their two previous games. Jays are warming up again and have a better chance of winning here than the Twins. Play: Toronto +106 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco –104 over CHICAGO
Doug Davis should not be touched, even by the truly desperate. You have to go back to 2005 to find Davis with a season xERA under 4.44, and a WHIP under 1.50. He was 29 then. He is 35 now, and missed most of last year due to elbow issues. Seriously, don't even think about it. Ryan Vogelsong has struck out 17 in 21 frames while walking just seven. He’s coming off a one-hit gem in 6.1 innings against the Rockies and has now allowed just 13 hits in 20.1 frames. Vogelsong is 33 years old and while he could be a late bloomer, he’s never had long lasting success at this level so this is not about him. This is all about playing against a complete stiff throwing for the Cubbies. Play: San Francisco –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Boston +125 over NEW YORK
Maybe the Yanks aren’t that strong. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games and they’re having trouble hitting everyone. The Yanks have made the following pitchers look good in the last 10 games: Sean O’Sullivan, Kyle Davis, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny and Vin Mazzaro. Those are five starters (and we use that term loosely) that would have a hard time cracking the #5 slot on 90% of the teams in this league. Alex Rodriguez (.261), Derek Jeter (.268) and Jorge Posado (.168) make up a third of the Yanks line-up and all are at the twilight of their careers and aren’t coming close to producing the way they used to. Russell Martin’s numbers have been declining for four years and counting and Nick Swisher has batted under .250 in three of the last four years. This year, he’s hitting .221 with two jacks. It’s not rocket science as to why the Yanks are laboring and probably will the rest of the year. Now they’ll have to face Josh Beckett and his .174 BAA and 1.99 ERA. Need we say more? Boston's scoring hasn't kept pace quite yet, but the team's OPS in May (.784) has been the best in the league and it’s only a matter of time before the hitting starts scoring runs in bunches. Yeah, C.C. Sabathia is tough but we get a pitcher of equal value, a nice tag and a team with an offense that is on the verge of exploding. Play: Boston +125 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +113 over OAKLAND
Can the White Sox resurrect their season? Winning series at Seattle and LAA could be the start of turning things around for the White Sox, not to mention a series-opening win last night. The South Side has the AL's best OPS this month (.795) and that offensive success has come with games at Seattle and Los Angeles. Their offense has the most pronounced left-right preference this season, with the team hitting just .631 against LHP (OPS) while posting a .719 mark against RHP and they’ll see another righty here in Tyler Ross. Ross went 1-4 with a 5.49 ERA in 39 IP for the A’s last year. He’s started this season extremely well with a 2.51 ERA but don’t buy it. It is clear that Ross has been extremely lucky this season, as his skills are weaker than they were a year ago. His strikeout rate and command have both slipped and his ERA can be credited to his having allowed no home runs, a situation that will change soon. His xERA (4.61) tells us that a regression is forthcoming and that’s what we’re buying. Gavin Floyd is an ace, period. He has a high strikeout rate, outstanding command and a 51% groundball profile. The fact that Tyler Ross is favored over Gavin Floyd is ludicrous and this is without question the biggest overlay on the board today. Play: Chicago +113 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +148 over VANCOUVER (Series)
The first thing to note here is the price on the Sharks, which is an overlay to be sure when you consider that they disposed of two dangerous clubs that both could score goals in Anaheim and Detroit. Yeah, it took seven games to beat the Red Wings but after facing Zetterberg and Datsyuk, facing the Sedin twins is not a bigger challenge. Ryan Kesler is another big threat but after that production drops off dramatically. Let’s also not forget that the Sharkies were up 3-0 on Detroit and 3-1 in game four and were minutes away from a four-game sweep. The Canucks beat a Blackhawks team that backed into the playoffs on the final night of the regular season. The Canucks were up 3-0 but they also were blown out twice in that series. They then played a Preds team, whose leading scorer during the year had 23 goals. Vancouver dominated play for the most part but their inability to put the Preds away on a few occasions is troubling and so was that game five loss at home. Vancouver has really not been that impressive. Roberto Luongo could be in for a tough series. The Sharks can snipe with the best of them and we saw what the Blackhawks did to Luongo when they barraged him with shots. Hell, the Canucks even sat him for a game in that crucial game six before coming back to him in game 7. That’s how much confidence they had in Luongo so why should we have confidence? The Canucks had a great regular season but the post season is a different animal. Vancouver has been just good enough to win thus far against two beatable teams but they certainly have not been great. The Sharks have been. They withstood a charge from an outstanding Red Wings club. They dominated Detroit for long stretches and while the Canucks have home ice, we really don’t care. San Jose has shown they can beat anyone and win anywhere. They’re the better team with a better defense, better offense and a better goaltender. The fact that we get a take-back of almost 7½-5 sweetens the deal. This is the biggest series overlay of the playoffs thus far. Play: San Jose +148 to win series (Risking 3 units).
