MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 1-2, 2.82 in his last four starts.
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Liriano is 1-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 4.68 in his last four starts.
-- Fernandez is 7-1, 1.34 in his last ten starts. Cashner is 4-2, 1.24 in his last six starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- FHernandez is 8-2, 2.76 in 15 career starts at Oakland. Straily is 2-1, 3.19 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 5-1, 3.20 in his last ten starts. Peralta is 3-1, 3.80 in last four.
Cold pitchers
-- Gee is 1-1, 5.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lee is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 0-1, 4.42 in his last three starts.
-- Kelly is 0-2, 5.32 in his last five starts.
-- Teheran is 1-2, 7.90 in his last three starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 5.03 in his last three starts. de la Rosa has a 6.56 RA in his last five starts.
-- Carrasco is 0-2, 10.54 in his last three starts. Gibson is 2-3, 7.54 in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 1-2, 5.76 in his last three starts. Pineda is 0-3, 4.61 in his last seven starts, which were in 2011.
-- Norris is 1-1, 5.68 in his last five starts.
-- Danks is 0-4, 8.86 in his last four starts. BChen is 2-2, 5.57 in his last four.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 8.36 in his last three starts. Keuchel is 1-2, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Martinez is making MLB debut; he made only four starts in AA LY (2-0, 1.13, allowing 11 hits in 32 IP).
Totals
-- Four of last five Cueto starts stayed under.
-- Last five Samardzija starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Bumgarner starts.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kelly starts.
-- Five of last seven Teheran starts stayed under; over is 6-1-1 in Strasburg's last eight starts.
-- Seven of last eight Cashner starts stayed under.
-- Last four de la Rosa starts went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Gibson starts went over the total.
-- Three of first four Bronx games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Norris starts went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Danks starts.
-- Three of last four Straily starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four Keuchel starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Price starts went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Buchholz starts.
Hot teams
-- Nationals/Braves both won three of their first four games.
-- Pittsburgh won three of its first four games.
-- Marlins won four of their first five games.
-- Giants won four of their first five games; Dodgers won four of first six.
-- Tigers won their first three games.
-- Mariners won three of their first four games.
Cold teams
-- Mets/Reds both lost three of their first four games.
-- Cubs lost three of their first four games.
-- San Diego lost its last three games.
-- Arizona lost six of its first seven games.
-- Orioles lost three of their first four games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its first four games.
-- Angels lost three of their first four games.
Umpires
-- Cin-NY-- Five of last six Hirschbeck games stayed under.
-- Phil-Chi-- Four of last five Scott games stayed under.
-- SF-LA-- Underdogs won four of last five West games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Last four Joyce games went over the total.
-- StL-Pitt-- Underdogs won 10 of last 13 BWelke games.
-- SD-Mia-- Last five Davis games stayed under total.
-- Az-Col-- Road team won four of last five Winters games.
-- Min-Clv-- Four of last five Blaser games stayed under.
-- NY-Tor-- Six of last seven Demuth games stayed under.
-- Blt-Det-- Six of last eight Cederstrom games stayed under.
-- Chi-KC-- Seven of last ten TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Sea-A's-- Seven of last eight Culbreth games stayed under.
-- Tex-TB-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- LA-Hst-- Favorites won 12 of last 15 Cooper games.
-- Mil-Bos-- Four of last five TWelke games stayed under.
Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 1-2, 2.82 in his last four starts.
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Liriano is 1-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 4.68 in his last four starts.
-- Fernandez is 7-1, 1.34 in his last ten starts. Cashner is 4-2, 1.24 in his last six starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- FHernandez is 8-2, 2.76 in 15 career starts at Oakland. Straily is 2-1, 3.19 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 5-1, 3.20 in his last ten starts. Peralta is 3-1, 3.80 in last four.
Cold pitchers
-- Gee is 1-1, 5.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lee is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 0-1, 4.42 in his last three starts.
-- Kelly is 0-2, 5.32 in his last five starts.
-- Teheran is 1-2, 7.90 in his last three starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 5.03 in his last three starts. de la Rosa has a 6.56 RA in his last five starts.
-- Carrasco is 0-2, 10.54 in his last three starts. Gibson is 2-3, 7.54 in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 1-2, 5.76 in his last three starts. Pineda is 0-3, 4.61 in his last seven starts, which were in 2011.
-- Norris is 1-1, 5.68 in his last five starts.
-- Danks is 0-4, 8.86 in his last four starts. BChen is 2-2, 5.57 in his last four.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 8.36 in his last three starts. Keuchel is 1-2, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Martinez is making MLB debut; he made only four starts in AA LY (2-0, 1.13, allowing 11 hits in 32 IP).
Totals
-- Four of last five Cueto starts stayed under.
-- Last five Samardzija starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Bumgarner starts.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kelly starts.
-- Five of last seven Teheran starts stayed under; over is 6-1-1 in Strasburg's last eight starts.
-- Seven of last eight Cashner starts stayed under.
-- Last four de la Rosa starts went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Gibson starts went over the total.
-- Three of first four Bronx games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Norris starts went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Danks starts.
-- Three of last four Straily starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four Keuchel starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Price starts went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Buchholz starts.
Hot teams
-- Nationals/Braves both won three of their first four games.
-- Pittsburgh won three of its first four games.
-- Marlins won four of their first five games.
-- Giants won four of their first five games; Dodgers won four of first six.
-- Tigers won their first three games.
-- Mariners won three of their first four games.
Cold teams
-- Mets/Reds both lost three of their first four games.
-- Cubs lost three of their first four games.
-- San Diego lost its last three games.
-- Arizona lost six of its first seven games.
-- Orioles lost three of their first four games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its first four games.
-- Angels lost three of their first four games.
Umpires
-- Cin-NY-- Five of last six Hirschbeck games stayed under.
-- Phil-Chi-- Four of last five Scott games stayed under.
-- SF-LA-- Underdogs won four of last five West games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Last four Joyce games went over the total.
-- StL-Pitt-- Underdogs won 10 of last 13 BWelke games.
-- SD-Mia-- Last five Davis games stayed under total.
-- Az-Col-- Road team won four of last five Winters games.
-- Min-Clv-- Four of last five Blaser games stayed under.
-- NY-Tor-- Six of last seven Demuth games stayed under.
-- Blt-Det-- Six of last eight Cederstrom games stayed under.
-- Chi-KC-- Seven of last ten TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Sea-A's-- Seven of last eight Culbreth games stayed under.
-- Tex-TB-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- LA-Hst-- Favorites won 12 of last 15 Cooper games.
-- Mil-Bos-- Four of last five TWelke games stayed under.
NHL
Hot teams
-- Avalanche won last five games, four in OT/SO. St Louis won five of its last six.
-- Islanders won five of their last six games.
-- Maple Leafs won last two games, after losing previous eight.
-- Detroit won its last four games, allowing eight goals. Canadiens won six of their last seven.
-- Dallas Stars won five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Carolina won its last two games, both by 4-1 scores.
-- Penguins won three of their last four games.
-- Kings won seven of their last nine games.
-- Predators won five of their last seven games. San Jose won last two games, allowing total of five goals.
Cold teams
-- Flyers lost five of their last six games. Boston lost last two games, scoring five goals.
-- Washington lost last five games, scoring once in last two games.
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last seven games.
-- Lightning lost four of their last seven games.
-- Senators lost five of last seven road games.
-- New Jersey lost its last four road games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six home games.
-- Canucks lost last three games, scoring four goals.
Totals
-- Three of last four Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Islander games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Winnipeg games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Detroit games.
-- 10 of last 15 Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Ranger games.
-- Nine of last ten Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Pittsburgh games.
-- Six of last nine Vancouver games went over the total.
-- Last five Nashville games went over the total.
Series records
-- Flyers lost 12 of their last 15 games with Boston.
-- Blues won their last four games with Colorado.
-- Islanders lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Jets won four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Red Wings won six of last nine games with Montreal.
-- Lightning won their last three games with Dallas Stars.
-- Rangers are 2-0 vs Ottawa this season, 4-1/8-4.
-- Devils won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Penguins won last two games with Minnesota, 4-2/5-2.
-- Kings are 4-0 vs Vancouver this season, allowing four goals.
-- Predators won four of last five games with San Jose.
Hot teams
-- Avalanche won last five games, four in OT/SO. St Louis won five of its last six.
-- Islanders won five of their last six games.
-- Maple Leafs won last two games, after losing previous eight.
-- Detroit won its last four games, allowing eight goals. Canadiens won six of their last seven.
-- Dallas Stars won five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Carolina won its last two games, both by 4-1 scores.
-- Penguins won three of their last four games.
-- Kings won seven of their last nine games.
-- Predators won five of their last seven games. San Jose won last two games, allowing total of five goals.
Cold teams
-- Flyers lost five of their last six games. Boston lost last two games, scoring five goals.
-- Washington lost last five games, scoring once in last two games.
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last seven games.
-- Lightning lost four of their last seven games.
-- Senators lost five of last seven road games.
-- New Jersey lost its last four road games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six home games.
-- Canucks lost last three games, scoring four goals.
Totals
-- Three of last four Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Islander games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Winnipeg games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Detroit games.
-- 10 of last 15 Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Ranger games.
-- Nine of last ten Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Pittsburgh games.
-- Six of last nine Vancouver games went over the total.
-- Last five Nashville games went over the total.
Series records
-- Flyers lost 12 of their last 15 games with Boston.
-- Blues won their last four games with Colorado.
-- Islanders lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Jets won four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Red Wings won six of last nine games with Montreal.
-- Lightning won their last three games with Dallas Stars.
-- Rangers are 2-0 vs Ottawa this season, 4-1/8-4.
-- Devils won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Penguins won last two games with Minnesota, 4-2/5-2.
-- Kings are 4-0 vs Vancouver this season, allowing four goals.
-- Predators won four of last five games with San Jose.
NBA
Hot teams
-- Minnesota won four of last six games, beating Miami in OT last nite.
-- Bulls won six of their last seven games. Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Bobcats won four of their last five games. Cleveland won five of its last seven games.
-- Nets won four of their last five games.
-- Raptors won five of their last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Magic lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Detroit lost five of its last six games. Celtics lost their last seven games (1-5-1 vs spread).
-- 76ers split last four games, after losing 26 in a row; they covered 7 of their last 10 games.
-- Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 13 games.
Series records
-- Magic won eight of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Bobcats won their last four games with Cleveland.
-- Pistons won five of last seven games with Boston.
-- 76ers lost five of last seven games with Brooklyn (dogs 7-4 last 11).
-- Bucks are 2-0 vs Toronto this year, 97-90/116-94.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Minnesota games went over.
-- Three of last four Chicago games went over total.
-- Last three Charlotte road games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Brooklyn games went over total.
-- Last three Milwaukee home games stayed under.
Hot teams
-- Minnesota won four of last six games, beating Miami in OT last nite.
-- Bulls won six of their last seven games. Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Bobcats won four of their last five games. Cleveland won five of its last seven games.
-- Nets won four of their last five games.
-- Raptors won five of their last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Magic lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Detroit lost five of its last six games. Celtics lost their last seven games (1-5-1 vs spread).
-- 76ers split last four games, after losing 26 in a row; they covered 7 of their last 10 games.
-- Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 13 games.
Series records
-- Magic won eight of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Bobcats won their last four games with Cleveland.
-- Pistons won five of last seven games with Boston.
-- 76ers lost five of last seven games with Brooklyn (dogs 7-4 last 11).
-- Bucks are 2-0 vs Toronto this year, 97-90/116-94.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Minnesota games went over.
-- Three of last four Chicago games went over total.
-- Last three Charlotte road games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Brooklyn games went over total.
-- Last three Milwaukee home games stayed under.
Today's NBA Picks
Boston at Detroit
The Celtics head to Detroit tonight where they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Pistons. Detroit is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Boston at Detroit
The Celtics head to Detroit tonight where they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Pistons. Detroit is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
| SATURDAY, APRIL 5 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 801-802: Minnesota at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.670; Orlando 116.757 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 207 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 803-804: Chicago at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.809; Washington 122.827 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 182 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over |
| Game 805-806: Brooklyn at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 124.166; Philadelphia 107.975 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 16; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10 1/2; 210 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-10 1/2); Under |
| Game 807-808: Boston at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 107.288; Detroit 116.079 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 206 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5 1/2); Over |
| Game 809-810: Charlotte at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.905; Cleveland 124.669 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 196 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2 1/2); Over |
| Game 811-812: Toronto at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.044; Milwaukee 112.365 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 7 1/2; 193 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
Today's MLB Picks
San Diego at Miami
The Marlins look to follow up their win yesterday in the series opener against the Padres and come into tonight's contest with a 14-2 record in Jose Fernandez' last 16 home starts. Miami is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-150). Here are all of today's picks.
San Diego at Miami
The Marlins look to follow up their win yesterday in the series opener against the Padres and come into tonight's contest with a 14-2 record in Jose Fernandez' last 16 home starts. Miami is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-150). Here are all of today's picks.
| SATURDAY, APRIL 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 951-952: Cincinnati at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.862; NY Mets (Gee) 14.315 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); Under |
| Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.145; Cubs (Samardzija) 15.032 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); No Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A |
| Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.052; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 15.101 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Over |
| Game 957-958: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.866; Washington (Strasburg) 14.991 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+155); Under |
| Game 959-960: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.913; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.899 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Over |
| Game 961-962: San Diego at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 14.455; Miami (Fernandez) 15.918 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Miami (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-150); Under |
| Game 963-964: Arizona at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.310; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.513 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under |
| Game 965-966: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 12.996; Cleveland (Carrasco) 16.106 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over |
| Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.621; Toronto (Dickey) 14.708 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Under |
| Game 969-970: Baltimore at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.285; Detroit (Porcello) 16.604 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over |
| Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.679; Kansas City (Chen) 14.811 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over |
| Game 973-974: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 17.206; Oakland (Straily) 15.855 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Under |
| Game 975-976: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 16.358; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.728 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+160); Under |
| Game 977-978: LA Angels at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.673; Houston (Keuchel) 12.825 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Over |
| Game 979-980: Milwaukee at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.804; Boston (Buchholz) 17.256 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Under |
NCAAB
Saturday, April 5
Saturday's CBI game
Faster-paced game in Game 2 favored Fresno squad that went 35-43 on foul line in easy (led by 26 with 13:45 left) 89-75 win; Bulldogs scored a ridiculously good 1.31 ppp, making 15-21 inside arc, 8-15 outside. Siena is at home, but playing in on-campus gym rather than downtown arena. Saints trailed Game 1 by 6 at half in Fresno, held Bulldogs to 25 points in second half- road team won both series games. Siena won eight of last ten games, Fresno won 13 of last 17. 11:30 local tipoff time is 8:30 PT. Siena will have home crowd behind then in 4,000-seat arena, but it was not much of a help in Game 2. Four different Bulldogs took 8+ FTs in Game 2. Fresno took total of 13 foul shots in Game 1.
Final Four (Arlington, TX)
UConn was down 3 with 0:45 left in first round game with St Joe's, won in OT, beat Iowa State by 5, when Cyclones were playing without best player. Huskies played regionals in NYC, giving them two virtual home games. Florida won its last 30 games; last loss was 65-64 (+4) at UConn on Dec 2 in Storrs; Huskies made 11-24 from arc, outscored Florida 5-2 in last 1:18, after Wilbekin hurt his ankle with 3:01 left. Last ten times there was a Final Four with only one #1 seed, the #1 seed won the title seven of those 10 years. All four Gator wins in this tournament are by 10+ points; since 2005, #1 seeds are 11-2 in Final Four vs non-#1-seeds, but only 8-5 against the spread.
Bo Ryan won four national titles in D-III, so he's been in Final Fours a lot, just not this one. Wisconsin is 13-2 in last 15 games, since a 1-5 skid in January- they beat Florida by 6 way back in November, its only game vs SEC opponent. Since 2000, favorites are 9-6 vs spread in Final Four games without a #1 seed in it. Since '92, teams lower than a #4-seed are 7-10 against spread in Final Four games. Last five times a lower-seeded team was favored over a higher seed, the higher seed went 4-1 vs spread. Kentucky starts five freshmen; all four of its tourney wins are by seven or less points. Wildcats split pair vs Big Dozen teams, beating Michigan, losing to Michigan State- they hold opponents to 32% from arc, #59 in country, very important when playing drive/kick game of Wisconsin.
Saturday, April 5
Saturday's CBI game
Faster-paced game in Game 2 favored Fresno squad that went 35-43 on foul line in easy (led by 26 with 13:45 left) 89-75 win; Bulldogs scored a ridiculously good 1.31 ppp, making 15-21 inside arc, 8-15 outside. Siena is at home, but playing in on-campus gym rather than downtown arena. Saints trailed Game 1 by 6 at half in Fresno, held Bulldogs to 25 points in second half- road team won both series games. Siena won eight of last ten games, Fresno won 13 of last 17. 11:30 local tipoff time is 8:30 PT. Siena will have home crowd behind then in 4,000-seat arena, but it was not much of a help in Game 2. Four different Bulldogs took 8+ FTs in Game 2. Fresno took total of 13 foul shots in Game 1.
Final Four (Arlington, TX)
UConn was down 3 with 0:45 left in first round game with St Joe's, won in OT, beat Iowa State by 5, when Cyclones were playing without best player. Huskies played regionals in NYC, giving them two virtual home games. Florida won its last 30 games; last loss was 65-64 (+4) at UConn on Dec 2 in Storrs; Huskies made 11-24 from arc, outscored Florida 5-2 in last 1:18, after Wilbekin hurt his ankle with 3:01 left. Last ten times there was a Final Four with only one #1 seed, the #1 seed won the title seven of those 10 years. All four Gator wins in this tournament are by 10+ points; since 2005, #1 seeds are 11-2 in Final Four vs non-#1-seeds, but only 8-5 against the spread.
Bo Ryan won four national titles in D-III, so he's been in Final Fours a lot, just not this one. Wisconsin is 13-2 in last 15 games, since a 1-5 skid in January- they beat Florida by 6 way back in November, its only game vs SEC opponent. Since 2000, favorites are 9-6 vs spread in Final Four games without a #1 seed in it. Since '92, teams lower than a #4-seed are 7-10 against spread in Final Four games. Last five times a lower-seeded team was favored over a higher seed, the higher seed went 4-1 vs spread. Kentucky starts five freshmen; all four of its tourney wins are by seven or less points. Wildcats split pair vs Big Dozen teams, beating Michigan, losing to Michigan State- they hold opponents to 32% from arc, #59 in country, very important when playing drive/kick game of Wisconsin.
Kentucky or Wisconsin? Who covers in Final Four
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
Florida or UConn? Who covers in Final Four
Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies (+6, 126.5)
THREE REASONS FLORIDA COVERS
Defense
No team remaining in the hunt for the NCAA championship defends better than the Gators, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the nation during the regular season and have surrendered more than 60 points just once in seven postseason games. The Huskies have shown they can score - putting up at least 75 points in three of their four tournament games - but they didn't have to face the relentless press of a Florida team that forces opponents into bad shots and sloppy turnovers.
Close spreads
The 2013-14 Gators are at their best in games where they're narrow favorites. Florida has gone 6-1 ATS in games where it was a six-point fave or lower, and 3-1 in games in which it was the underdog, including an ATS victory over UConn on Dec. 2. The Gators are installed as a six-point favorite for Saturday's national semifinal.
Free throws
The Huskies make a living from the foul line, ranking in the Top 10 nationally at 77.4 percent, but will find the sledding a lot tougher against Florida. The Gators have been among the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to limiting free throws. They held opponents to 20 or fewer foul shots 23 times in 34 regular-season and conference tournament games and have yielded an average of fewer than 11 attempts in their four NCAA tournament contests.
THREE REASONS UCONN COVERS
Momentum
Sure, the Gators have strung together an impressive winning streak but the bulk of that came during their weak SEC schedule. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been able to find their form against the toughest teams in the country. In fact, if you take out two losses to Louisville, Connecticut has won nine straight going back to early February, going 7-2 ATS in those contests.
Confidence
The last team to beat the mighty Gators was UConn, upending Florida 65-64 at home – a game in which the Huskies were actually 4-point favorites. Teams like Florida thrive on having the mental edge over its opponent – beating them before they even touch the court. However, UConn is not afraid of big bad UF and has just enough confidence, momentum and swagger to snap Florida’s 30-game winning run. The Huskies forced the Gators to commit 16 turnovers in that first meeting and limited them to just 3-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc while answering with 11 3-pointers of their own.
Shabazz Napier
Napier is doing one hell of a Kemba Walker impression in the tournament, carrying UConn to the Final Four much like his former teammate did in 2011. He’s scoring over 23 points per game and has hit big shot after big shot. The Huskies offense throws a lot of on the ball screens at their opponent’s backcourt, looking to break Napier for an easy look. He went for 26 in the first meeting with Florida, including a 17-foot jumper to win the game as time expired.
Florida Gators vs. Connecticut Huskies (+6, 126.5)
THREE REASONS FLORIDA COVERS
Defense
No team remaining in the hunt for the NCAA championship defends better than the Gators, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the nation during the regular season and have surrendered more than 60 points just once in seven postseason games. The Huskies have shown they can score - putting up at least 75 points in three of their four tournament games - but they didn't have to face the relentless press of a Florida team that forces opponents into bad shots and sloppy turnovers.
Close spreads
The 2013-14 Gators are at their best in games where they're narrow favorites. Florida has gone 6-1 ATS in games where it was a six-point fave or lower, and 3-1 in games in which it was the underdog, including an ATS victory over UConn on Dec. 2. The Gators are installed as a six-point favorite for Saturday's national semifinal.
Free throws
The Huskies make a living from the foul line, ranking in the Top 10 nationally at 77.4 percent, but will find the sledding a lot tougher against Florida. The Gators have been among the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to limiting free throws. They held opponents to 20 or fewer foul shots 23 times in 34 regular-season and conference tournament games and have yielded an average of fewer than 11 attempts in their four NCAA tournament contests.
THREE REASONS UCONN COVERS
Momentum
Sure, the Gators have strung together an impressive winning streak but the bulk of that came during their weak SEC schedule. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been able to find their form against the toughest teams in the country. In fact, if you take out two losses to Louisville, Connecticut has won nine straight going back to early February, going 7-2 ATS in those contests.
Confidence
The last team to beat the mighty Gators was UConn, upending Florida 65-64 at home – a game in which the Huskies were actually 4-point favorites. Teams like Florida thrive on having the mental edge over its opponent – beating them before they even touch the court. However, UConn is not afraid of big bad UF and has just enough confidence, momentum and swagger to snap Florida’s 30-game winning run. The Huskies forced the Gators to commit 16 turnovers in that first meeting and limited them to just 3-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc while answering with 11 3-pointers of their own.
Shabazz Napier
Napier is doing one hell of a Kemba Walker impression in the tournament, carrying UConn to the Final Four much like his former teammate did in 2011. He’s scoring over 23 points per game and has hit big shot after big shot. The Huskies offense throws a lot of on the ball screens at their opponent’s backcourt, looking to break Napier for an easy look. He went for 26 in the first meeting with Florida, including a 17-foot jumper to win the game as time expired.
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
Florida Gators vs. UConn Huskies (+6, 126.5)
Gators’ tame defense vs. Huskies’ turnover tenacity
A big part of the Huskies’ improbable Final Four run is their ability to win the turnover battle. Connecticut has 34 total turnovers in the tournament compared to the 54 it has forced opponents to hand over. The Huskies coughed the ball up just six times in the win over Michigan State, while the Spartans posted 16 turnovers.
Florida’s best way to stop Shabazz Napier is to get aggressive on the perimeter, hedge hard on the Huskies’ screen-heavy offense, and make Napier give up the ball. That means those defenders off the ball will need to jump the passing lanes and force Napier to make a bad pass – something they haven’t been great at in the NCAA. The Gators have forced foes to make only 9.3 turnovers the past three games (down from their season average of 13.5) and actually lost the turnover battle, 12-8, versus UCLA in the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 139)
Badgers’ big-shot bigs vs. Wildcats' defensive size
The Wildcats have bullied their way to the Final Four, using their size advantage at almost every position to impose their will on opponents. Kentucky’s beef plugs up the paint and allows the 6-foot-6 guard trio of James Young and the Harrison Bros. to pester the perimeter. However, against the Badgers, Kentucky could find that defense spread thin with Wisconsin’s frontcourt demanding respect from beyond the arc.
The Badgers force opposing forwards to step outside of the paint and get their heels above the 3-point arc, especially Frank Kaminsky. The 7-footer has shown his touch in the tournament with some massive 3-point buckets and shoots nearly 38 percent from distance. Fellow forward Sam Dekker is just as potent from the perimeter. Kentucky is already down a big body with Willie Cauley-Stein out and could find its defense out of order with Wisconsin’s sharp-shooting big men pulling everyone out of the paint.
Florida Gators vs. UConn Huskies (+6, 126.5)
Gators’ tame defense vs. Huskies’ turnover tenacity
A big part of the Huskies’ improbable Final Four run is their ability to win the turnover battle. Connecticut has 34 total turnovers in the tournament compared to the 54 it has forced opponents to hand over. The Huskies coughed the ball up just six times in the win over Michigan State, while the Spartans posted 16 turnovers.
Florida’s best way to stop Shabazz Napier is to get aggressive on the perimeter, hedge hard on the Huskies’ screen-heavy offense, and make Napier give up the ball. That means those defenders off the ball will need to jump the passing lanes and force Napier to make a bad pass – something they haven’t been great at in the NCAA. The Gators have forced foes to make only 9.3 turnovers the past three games (down from their season average of 13.5) and actually lost the turnover battle, 12-8, versus UCLA in the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 139)
Badgers’ big-shot bigs vs. Wildcats' defensive size
The Wildcats have bullied their way to the Final Four, using their size advantage at almost every position to impose their will on opponents. Kentucky’s beef plugs up the paint and allows the 6-foot-6 guard trio of James Young and the Harrison Bros. to pester the perimeter. However, against the Badgers, Kentucky could find that defense spread thin with Wisconsin’s frontcourt demanding respect from beyond the arc.
The Badgers force opposing forwards to step outside of the paint and get their heels above the 3-point arc, especially Frank Kaminsky. The 7-footer has shown his touch in the tournament with some massive 3-point buckets and shoots nearly 38 percent from distance. Fellow forward Sam Dekker is just as potent from the perimeter. Kentucky is already down a big body with Willie Cauley-Stein out and could find its defense out of order with Wisconsin’s sharp-shooting big men pulling everyone out of the paint.
