SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +115 over ARIZONA
Matt Garza is 0-3 and if there’s any pitcher in the majors that deserves a win more than him, we haven’t spotted it yet. Garza is a premium buy low target. In 30.2 innings thus far, Garza has yet to allow a single HR and has struck out 41 hitters while walking eight. That’s a 5-1 ratio in favor of the strikeout. He also has a 51%/22% groundball/flyball profile and the fact that he’s winless with some of the best beneath the surface stats in the league is completely unjust. He has an xERA of 2.66 and he’s on the verge of a win. Remember, Garza was a rock-solid starter and 15-game winner for the Rays last season and that meant a heavy dose of Red Sox, Yankees and Jays and he should thrive against much lesser NL foes. He has thrived but it has yet to show up in the “W” column. Ian Kennedy has some nice numbers too but his beneath the surface stats reveal he’s been very fortunate. He has a weak GB/FB profile of 39%/43%. Kennedy’s 28% hit rate is low and it’s unsustainable given the aforementioned weak batted ball profile. That’s not to say he’s a poor starter. He has a strong strikeout rate and he’s coming off a complete game, three-hit shutout over the Phillies. However, when a pitcher that seldom throws a masterpiece throws one, a much lesser performance usually follows. This choice has less to do with wagering against Kennedy. Instead, it’s all about taking back a tag on an undervalued Garza. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND –107 over Detroit
The Tigers have dropped four in a row while the Indians have won four in a row, all at home. After last night’s 9-5 win, the Tribe are now 9-2 at Progressive Field (The Jake) and they have the best overall record in the majors. The Indians are a short price here because of a rookie pitcher making his major-league debut but he’s worth a bet. In place of the injured Carlos Carrasco, the Indians recalled the hard-throwing Alex White from Triple-A. White is a tall and athletic pitcher who is tough to hit due to his impressive repertoire. He thrives with his explosive, 87-95 mph groundball-inducing fastball to set up a hard slider that gets swings and misses. Both his heater and slider are dominant offerings. White was a first round selection in '09 and has a career 2.37 ERA in the minors. In four minor-league starts this season he’s 1-0 with a 1.90 ERA and a BAA of .211. Rick Porcello got off to a horrible start (9.00 ERA, 2.20 WHIP in first two starts) but then rebounded with two quality starts. However, his last two quality starts were at Seattle and Oakland respectively and those two parks could make Bob Barker look good. It’s likely a bit too early in his career to label Porcello a bust but his 4.92 ERA last season and two awful starts this season is reason to back off. Wagering on a rookie pitcher is always risky but the Indians are hot, the price is right and there’s far less risk wagering on a new comer when his team is playing well. Play: Cleveland –107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).