SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, APRIL 17
NBA PLAYOFFS
Chicago (41-41, 42-38-2 ATS) at Cleveland (61-21, 38-43-1 ATS)
LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who own home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, open first-round play against the eighth-seeded Bulls at Quicken Loans Arena. Chicago won and cashed in its last three regular-season games, and needed all three victories in order to hold off Toronto and squeak into the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. On Wednesday night, the Bulls topped Charlotte 98-89 as a 1½-point road favorite to halt a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS skid that nearly ended their season. Cleveland clinched the home-court edge on April 4 and played like it down the final stretch, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six meaningless games, including a four-game losing streak to close the regular season (1-3 ATS), ending with Wednesday’s 99-83 loss at Atlanta as a 4½-point underdog. Chicago went just 17-24 on the highway this year (22-19 ATS), averaging 97.0 ppg and giving up 100.9. But it did win five of its last six on the road and it went 7-1 ATS in the last eight as a visitor. Meanwhile, Cleveland outscored visitors by nearly nine points per game (103.3-94.4) while shooting 49.7 percent and holding opponents to 43.9 percent shooting. Prior to losing its final two meaningless home contests, Cleveland had been 35-4 SU but just 16-25 ATS at the Q. Cleveland, in the postseason for the fifth straight year, reached the Eastern Conference finals last year before bowing out to Orlando in six games despite having the home-court edge. Chicago, in the playoffs for the fifth time in six years but with a coaching controversy swirling around Vinny Del Negro, pushed the Celtics to seven games in the first round last year, losing the deciding game 109-99 in Boston. These Central Division rivals have split their last six meetings SU and ATS, with Chicago winning the most contest 109-108 on April 8, coming up short as a 6½-point home chalk, but James did not play for Cleveland. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings, but the home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 clashes, and the Cavs are 10-3 in the last 13 matchups at the Q. Prior to the last two series clashes, the SU winner had cashed in 27 straight Bulls-Cavaliers matchups. The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 12-5 overall, 7-1 on the road, 10-2 on Saturday and 5-1 getting points, but they’re also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five first-round playoff games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers went a league-best 50-32 ATS in regular-season play last year, but fell well off that pace this season, and they enter the postseason on ATS purges of 2-8 overall, 0-5 on Saturday, 1-9 after a SU loss, 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-6 as a favorite and 2-6 when laying 11 points or more. That said, Cleveland has cashed in five straight first-round playoff games and is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 outings as a playoff chalk. The over is on runs of 4-0 when Cleveland is favored in the playoffs and 7-0 with Chicago a playoff ‘dog. However, the Cavs are on “under” rolls of 13-5-1 inside the Central Division, 4-0 laying 11 points or more, 6-2 after a SU loss and 9-4 after a non-cover, and the Bulls are on “under” surges of 6-2 overall, 9-4 on the road, 10-3 in the Eastern Conference and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Milwaukee (46-36, 52-28-2 ATS) at Atlanta (53-29, 48-34 ATS)
The Bucks, seeded sixth in the East but with the NBA’s best spread-covering record, travel to Philips Arena to take on the third-seeded Hawks. Milwaukee approached the season’s midpoint with a 16-22 SU record, then put the hammer down from there, finishing on a 30-14 run while going a blistering 32-10-2 ATS. The Bucks finished with Wednesday’s 106-95 road win over a resting Boston squad, cashing as a three-point favorite. They won five of their final second games (4-2-1 ATS) despite losing center and leading rebounder Andrew Bogut (multiple hand and arm injuries) for the rest of the season.
Atlanta grabbed the third seed by winning its last four regular-season games, cashing in the last three in a row, following a 1-3 SU and ATS hiccup. The Hawks routed Cleveland 99-83 as a 4½-point home chalk Wednesday, though the Cavs were resting LeBron James. Atlanta held 14 of its last 19 opponents under 100 points. The Bucks are 18-23 SU on the road this year – despite averaging exactly as many points (95.4) as they allowed – but they went a league-best 28-12-1 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is 34-7 SU (25-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.5-96).
Milwaukee is in the playoffs for the first time since 2006, when it lost to Detroit in five games in the first round. It hasn’t made won a postseason series since reaching the conference finals in 2001. Atlanta is in the postseason for the third year in a row following an eight-year drought. In 2008, the Hawks pushed eventual champion Boston to seven games in the first round, then knocked off Miami in seven games last year before getting swept by Cleveland in the conference semifinals. The SU winner is 17-0-1 ATS in Atlanta’s playoff games the last two years.
Atlanta is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 104-96 road win laying 1½ points just five days ago. The chalk is on a 9-3-1 ATS tear in the last 13 contests between these two, and the road team has cashed in the last four meetings. Also, the SU winner is on an 11-3-1 ATS roll in this rivalry. The Bucks are on a 1-6-1 ATS dive in first-round playoff games, but are otherwise on a slew of pointspread upswings, including 36-14-2 overall, 21-5-1 on the road, 34-15-2 in the Eastern Conference, 8-1 on Saturday and 13-3 as an underdog. The Hawks are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 7-1 against the Central Division, 7-1 against winning teams, 10-2 following a SU win and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
Milwaukee is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-0 against winning teams, 12-3-2 in first-round playoff games and 4-0 as a playoff pup, though the under is 9-3 in the Bucks’ last 12 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 with Milwaukee coming off a two-day break. Atlanta is on “over” surges of 14-3 after a SU win, 4-1 after two days off and 4-1 against winning teams, but the under for the Hawks is on runs of 5-1 against the Central Division and 4-1 in first-round playoff contests. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight consecutive meetings overall and four in a row in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Miami (47-35, 42-39-1 ATS) at Boston (50-32, 33-47-2 ATS)
The streaking Heat, seeded fifth, head all the way up the Eastern seaboard to open their first-round series against the floundering Celtics at the TD Garden. Miami peeled off victories in 18 of its last 22 games (13-8-1 ATS), going from two games under .500 to 12 games over .500, and has won eight in a row on the road (7-1 ATS). The Heat finished the season with a 94-86 overtime win against New Jersey as a 4½-point home chalk, moving to 12-1 SU (8-4-1 ATS) in its last 13 contests.
A rapidly aging Boston squad limped to the finish line, losing seven of its last 10 games (both SU and ATS), including going 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four. On Wednesday, with nothing on the line and with many starters resting, the Celts lost to Milwaukee 106-95 as a three-point home pup, ending the regular season in a 4-9 ATS funk. Additionally, Doc Rivers’ troops lost five of their last six home games SU and ATS, but ironically the one victory came against LeBron James and the Cavaliers (117-113 as a 1½-point chalk). By finishing the regular season with an eight-game road winning streak, the Heat enter the playoffs at 23-18 SU (24-17 ATS) as a visitor this season. The Celtics were actually better on the road (26-15) than at home (24-17), and they’re a meager 12-28-1 ATS at the Garden. Miami, in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven years, lost to Atlanta in seven games in the first round last year and hasn’t gotten out of the opening round since winning the NBA title in 2006. Boston has qualified for the playoffs for a third straight year, but it followed up its 17th championship in 2008 by falling to Orlando in seven games in the conference semis last season. Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning five in a row (3-2 ATS) and 11 of the last 12 (8-4 ATS). Most recently, the C’s earned a 107-102 win on Feb. 3, but the Heat narrowly cashed as a 5½-point road pup. Despite that result, the favorite has still covered in eight of the last 10 meetings, but the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests. The winner has covered the number in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Also, the winner cashed in all seven of Miami’s postseason games against Atlanta last year, and went 10-3-1 ATS in Boston’s postseason run last spring. The Heat are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 opening-round playoff games and are in a 1-4-1 ATS funk as a postseason ‘dog, but they also sport several positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 7-1 on the highway, 8-3 as an underdog and 13-6 following a SU win. The Celts are on ATS slides of 3-8 overall, 20-44-1 at home, 1-6 as a favorite and 20-42 as a home chalk, though they also carry ATS upswings of 4-1 on Saturday, 15-7 as a favorite of less than five points and 3-1-1 in first-round playoff games. Miami is on “under” surges of 11-4-2 on the road, 8-0 when going on two days’ rest, 8-2-1 as a road pup, 4-1 in first-round playoff games, 35-16-1 after a SU win and 37-17-1 after a spread-cover. However, the over has hit in four of the Heat’s last five overall and five of its last six against winning teams. Boston, meanwhile, is on a boatload of “over” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 in first-round playoff games, 13-3 after a non-cover and 37-16 coming off a SU loss. In addition, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six meetings between these rivals, and the over is 3-1-1 in the last five Heat-Celtics clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Utah (53-29, 49-30-3 ATS) at Denver (53-29, 35-41-6 ATS)
After losing two of their final three regular-season games, the Nuggets fell to the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and host the fifth-seeded Jazz in Game 1 in a matchup of Northwest Division rivals inside the Pepsi Center. Utah split its last three six games (2-4 ATS), including Wednesday’s season-ending 100-86 home loss to the Suns as a five-point favorite, a crushing defeat that cost the Jazz the No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Still, from Jan. 6 through the end of the season, Jerry Sloan’s squad was one of the hottest in the NBA, going 35-13 SU and 31-14-3 ATS.
Denver moved from the No. 2 seed to the No. 4 spot with its struggles down the stretch, which included Tuesday’s ugly 123-101 loss in Phoenix as a five-point underdog in the season finale. In addition to dropping two of their final three contests, the Nuggets – playing without coach George Karl (cancer treatment) on the sidelines – went 6-7 over the final three weeks and enter the playoffs in a 4-11-1 ATS funk. The Jazz went 21-20 (23-17-1 ATS) on the highway in the regular season but took their final two roadies, winning and covering at New Orleans and Golden State. Denver went 34-7 inside the Pepsi Center, but finished a mediocre 20-20-1 ATS. The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series. The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003. The Nuggets took three of four (2-2 ATS) in the season series Utah, winning both meetings in Denver (113-105 as a five-point favorite on Oct. 28; 119-112, pushing as a seven-point chalk on Jan. 17). The Nuggets have won five of the last seven clashes while going 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight. Also, the home team is 9-1 (5-3-2 ATS) in the last 10 matchups between these two, and the chalk is 23-10-3 in the last 36. Utah is on ATS slides of 0-4 as an underdog, 3-14-1 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 2-6 on the road against teams with winning home records, but it is on several positive pointspread runs, including 31-14-3 overall, 17-8-1 on the road, 21-10-2 against the Western Conference, 12-3-1 on Saturday and 7-0-2 after two days off. In addition to their 4-11-1 ATS slump to end the regular season, the Nuggets are on pointspread skids of 3-8 as a favorite and 1-4-2 on Saturday, but they are on ATS surges of 20-8-1 after three or more days off, 8-1 at home against teams with winning road records, 53-26-3 as a favorite of five to 10½ points and 4-0-2 against Northwest Division rivals. The Jazz are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, and 6-2-1 against the Western Conference, but they have topped the total in 20 of 27 against Northwest Division teams, four straight after two days off and nine of 13 after a straight-up loss. Denver is on “under” streaks of 11-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-3 after a non-cover, but it is on “over” pushes of 4-1 as a playoff favorite, 12-5 against teams with winning records and 6-2 at home against teams with winning road records. In this rivalry, the over has cashed in four of five overall and six of seven in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (7-3) at L.A. Dodgers (5-5)
The Dodgers get their first crack of the season at two-time reigning N.L. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (2-0, 1.29 ERA), who will be opposed by knuckleballer Charlie Haeger (0-0, 3.86) as these N.L. West rivals continue their weekend series at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles jumped out to leads of 7-0 and 10-3 in Friday’s series opener, then gave up five runs in the ninth inning before holding on for a 10-8 victory. Going back to last year’s National League Championship Series loss to the Phillies, the Dodgers have dropped eight of 13 overall, but nine of those games were on the road. They remain on positive runs of 8-2 at home, 7-1 at home against right-handed starters, 5-1 against division rivals and 25-9 on Saturday. San Francisco has still won 13 of 17 overall and four of five on the road. Additionally, Bruce Bochy’s club is on runs of 6-2 against the N.L. West and 9-2 versus right-handed starters (5-1 on the road), but the Giants have lost five straight Saturday games.
The Dodgers are now 12-7 against San Francisco since the start of last season 2009. With Lincecum on the hill, the Giants are on surges of 8-3 against the N.L. West and 6-2 on Saturday, though they have lost five of his last seven road starts. One of those victories came on Opening Day in Houston, with Lincecum pitching seven scoreless innings, scattering four hits, walking none and striking out seven in a 5-2 victory. The right-hander followed that with Sunday’s 6-3 home victory over the Braves, allowing two runs on five hits (one walk) with 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Lincecum, who has a 17-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first two starts, has held four straight opponents and seven of eight to two runs or fewer. However, the one exception came in his final start against the Dodgers last September, when he surrendered five runs on four hits of a 6-2 road loss. It was the first time in his brief career that Lincecum lost to Los Angeles, as he’s now 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven appearances (six starts), including 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in four games (three starts) at Dodger Stadium. Haeger had mixed results at Florida in his 2010 debut Sunday, giving up four runs (three earned) on just three hits, and he notched a career-best 12 strikeouts, he also walked four. The right-hander pitched in six games for Los Angeles last year (three starts) going 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA, and both decisions came at home where he gave up just three runs in 15 innings (1.80 ERA). His experience against the Giants is limited to two relief appearances and he squandered three runs in 1 1/3 innings.
San Francisco is on “over” tears of 6-1-1 overall, 13-5-1 against division rivals, 6-1-2 versus right-handed starters and 4-1-1 with Lincecum starting. Likewise, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 23-8-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home (4-0 this season), 11-3-1 versus N.L. West foes and 7-0 against right-handed starters. Finally, the last seven Giants-Dodgers battles– and the last five clashes in Los Angeles – have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Boston (4-5)
Rays ace James Shields (0-0, 3.97) is slated to take the ball at Fenway Park tonight as he battles the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz (1-0, 3.60) in the second of a four-game series.
Tampa Bay and Boston were locked in a 1-1 duel entering the bottom of the ninth inning Friday when the rains came and forced the suspension of the contest. The Rays have still won four in a row on the highway since last year and sport additional positive runs of 12-5 overall, 15-5 against the A.L. East, 17-6 on Saturday and 55-22 in the second game of a series. However, they’ve lost 13 of 18 on the road against right-handed starters. Boston had lost two of three in Minnesota entering Friday’s game. The Red Sox have still won 56 of 82 at Fenway Park and four of five on Saturday, though they’re just 1-8 in their last nine against A.L. East foes. These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston won the last four in a row. Also, the Rays have lost 53 of their last 69 games at Fenway Park. Shields gave up two runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings Sunday against the Yankees, but the Rays’ bullpen imploded once he departed and he got a no-decision in a 7-3 home loss. In his two outings this year (both in Tampa), Shields has allowed five runs in 11 1/3 innings with five walks and 11 strikeouts. Last year, the right-hander was 5-6 with a 4.62 ERA in 15 road outings. Tampa Bay has lost five of Shields’ last six starts against the Red Sox overall, and for his career, Shields is 3-7 with a 5.32 ERA in 12 games against Boston, including 0-6 with a beefy 8.04 ERA in six contests at Fenway Park. Three of those six losses in Boston came last year, with Shields allowing 13 runs on 25 hits in 17 1/3 innings, and the Sox hitters batted .333. Buchholz made his 2010 debut Sunday in Kansas City and picked up a win after holding the Royals to three runs (two earned) on seven hits in just five innings. The right-hander delivered six straight quality starts over a month-long span toward the end of last year’s regular season (five earned runs allowed in 41 innings for a 1.09 ERA), but since then, he’s given up 17 runs (all earned) in four starts spanning 18 innings (8.50 ERA), failing to last more than five innings in any of the four games. Boston is now 10-2 in Buchholz’s last 12 starts overall, as well as 5-2 in his last seven at home and 6-1 in his last seven versus divisional foes. Last year, he went 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in eight starts at Fenway Park, and he’s faced Tampa Bay four times, going 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA (seven runs allowed in 26 1/3 innings). Tampa Bay is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall (all versus the A.L. East), 5-1 on the road, 7-3 with Shields starting and 4-1 when Shields works on the highway. Also, Boston has topped the total in four of five at home, four of five on Saturday and five of six against the A.L. East, and the over has cashed in each of Buchholz’s last five starts overall and four of his last five outings at Fenway. Conversely, the under is 5-0-1 in Shields’ last six starts against the Red Sox and 3-0-1 in his last four at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
