STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAB REPORT
SATURDAY, MARCH 7th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 3/7/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Saturday's Notebook
•Michigan State (-8.5) thrashed Indiana 70-50 at home Jan 5, leading by 30 with 13:13 left (was 36-17 at half). Spartans were +22 on boards, held Hoosiers to 5-24 from arc. State won five of their last seven games, three of last four on road- they covered last four tries as road favorite. Indiana is 4-7 in its last 11 games, losing last two at home by 4-14 points. dogs are 7-1 versus spread in Indiana's home tilts; Hoosiers are 2-0 as home dogs.
•Butler/Providence are in 3-way tie for #2 seed in Big East; Friars (+5.5) won 66-62 at Butler Jan 6, holding Butler to 34.9% inside arc in a game Butler led 36-29 at half. Providence won four of last five games, losing to Villanova; they're 4-2 as home favorites, winning four of last five at home with wins by 7-11-7-11 points. Butler split its last six games, is 3-2 as a road underdog, winning three of last four away from home.
•Home sidewon last nine LSU-Arkansas games; Tigers won three of last four games, splitting last four on road; they're 4-1 as road underdog, with road losses by 7-6-6 points. Arkansas won eight of last nine games; they blew 20-point lead in last game at South Carolina, then rallied back from 11 down to win by 4 in last minute. Arkansas is 3-5 as home favorites, winning last six home games by 2-5-20-20-15-6 points. These teams are playing fastest tempo games in SEC.
•Georgia State/Georgia Southern are tied at top of Sun Belt; winner here is #1 seed in conference tourney. Southern (+1.5) had 19-9 edge on the line, beat State 58-54 at home Feb 5, despite shooting 9-30 inside arc, 7-26 on arc, 19-29 on foul line (State was 5-9) in game Panthers led by nine with 11:36 left. Eagles won five of last seven games, are 3-0 as road dogs. State is 10-2 in last 12 games, winning last six home games-- they're 2-4-1 as a home favorite.
•Villanova(-4) won 90-72 at St John's Jan 6, making 10-23 in game that was tied at half- they scored 1.3 ppp, very high. That loss made Johnnies 0-3 in Big East; they're rallied to get to 10-7. Red Storm won four in row, seven of last eight games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs, losing on road by 11-4-3-23-22 points (3-5 SU). Villanova is playing for #1 seed in NCAA tournament; Wildcats won last 11 games, haven't lost since Jan 19; they are 7-1 as home favorites.
•Kansas (-5) beat Oklahoma 85-78 at home Jan 19, blowing 20-point lead (was 51-32 at half), then rallying from 4 down with 4:56 left. Ellis won't play in this game after getting hurt vs. West Virginia. Jayhawks hit 10-19 from arc in first OU game; they've lost three of last four on road, with win by 22 at Texas Tech. Sooners won eight of last ten games, winning last six at home; they're 5-3 as home favorites, but lost last game at Iowa State after leading by 19 at half.
•Virginiawon't have Anderson (appendix) back here; they won first game with Louisville 52-47 (-7) at home Feb 7, in brickfest where teams made 5-28 from arc- Cardinals didn't score in last 10:00 of first half. Cavaliers already have #1 seed in ACC tourney wrapped up- they allowed 55.6 ppg in last five games, bad news for Louisville team that tossed its point guard few weeks ago. Cardinals split last eight games, losing last three games against top 50 opponents.
•Duke won its last ten games, one of which was 92-90 OT win over UNC Feb 18, when Tar Heels led by 10 with 3:17 left. Duke was 10-16 on arc, 16-31 on line in that game; they held Paige to 5 points. Blue Devils won last five on road, but last four were versus non-tourney teams. Carolina is 4-5 in last nine games, but won three of last four (GT twice, Miami); they've lost two of last three home games. North Carolina hasn't beaten a top 50 team since Jan 14 versus NC State (0-4).
•Colorado Statewon six of last seven games, winning last four against the worst teams in Mountain West; Rams are 4-4 on Mountain West road, winning last two away games, at Nevada/Fresno. Its last home game for popular/retiring Utah State coach Morrill, whose Aggies won six of last seven games, winning last three at home by 13-6-18 points. Aggies were 3-0 versus Colorado State LY, beating them by 7-9-4 points, including win in Mountain West tournament.
•Cal-Davis clinched its first-ever Big West regular season title Thursday; it is Senior Night for star guard Hawkins, who didn't play when Aggies got 75-56 win (+11) at Irvine Feb 5-- Aggies were 7-10 on arc that night, are 3-1-1 as home favorites, last six home wins by 7 or less points. Irvine is 4-1 in last five games but lost two of last three on road; Anteaters are lot healthier than they've been but have weird team- the big guys slow down their talented parameter players.
MVC Tournament, St Louis
•Wichita State won this tourney LY after being 11-11 in this event the 11 years before that; Shockers swept Illinois State this year, winning 70-62 at home (-11) Jan 4, then 68-62 (-4) in Normal Feb 14, so neither was an easy win. Wichita covered seven of its last nine games. Illinois State won last night after being down six at half. Redbirds won their last five games, last two by total of six points. Shockers' only loss in 2015 was Jan 31 at Northern Iowa- they've won last nine games.
•Loyola won its last four games, covered seven of last eight; they're 6-1-1 in last eight games as an underdog. Doyle is back for Loyola after missing 11 games- he played 21:00 last night in his second game back from injury. Wasn't much stress for either side Friday, so fatigue shouldn't be factor here. Ramblers lost 67-58 (+11) at Northern Iowa Jan 4, then again at home to Panthers 58-39 (+8) Feb 18. UNI won 17 of its last 18 games; losing only at Wichita last Saturday;
•Ohio Valley Tournament, Nashville
Over last nine years, Belmont is 21-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins played last two nights, rallying back from down 7 with 12:27 left last night. Belmont won its last six games, covered last five. Murray beat Belmont 92-77 (-7.5) Jan 15 in only meeting this year. Racers are 17-0 in OVC this year, had to come back from down 11 in last 6:31 last night. Lot of pressure on Murray- they are not getting into NCAAs unless they win this game.
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•Situational Trends of The Day
--NOTRE DAME is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 62.4, OPPONENT 68.0.
--CALIFORNIA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 66.3, OPPONENT 62.7.
--NEVADA is 1-10 (-22.1 Units) against the money line after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEVADA 64.4, OPPONENT 71.5.
--PROVIDENCE is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the 1rst half line after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PROVIDENCE 32.8, OPPONENT 28.4.
--UAB is 18-2 UNDER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997.
The average score was UAB 28.1, OPPONENT 28.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--FLA ATLANTIC is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLA ATLANTIC 62.8, OPPONENT 68.9.
--UC-IRVINE is 30-8 UNDER (+21.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UC-IRVINE 67.0, OPPONENT 61.4.
--DELAWARE is 7-0 (+17.6 Units) against the money line versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was DELAWARE 70.1, OPPONENT 64.9.
--ARIZONA is 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 37.8, OPPONENT 24.8.
--PURDUE is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was PURDUE 29.0, OPPONENT 26.0.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (IONA) - average 3PT defensive team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(55-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.9%, +45.1 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.3, Opponent 33.3 (Total first half points scored = 65.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-36).
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Saturday's Early Tips
Systems Analyst James Vogel
A trio of Wildcats that have high expectations of making a very deep run in this season’s NCAA Tournament will try and give the home-town crowd one last thrill when they close-out the regular season this Saturday afternoon. In the first of two 2:00 PM EST tips, No. 1 Kentucky will try and put the finishing touches on a perfect run through this season against Florida in this SEC clash. No. 4 Villanova will look to stay on a roll in the Big East in the other 2:00 PM start when it plays host to St. John’s. At 4:00 PM, No. 5 Arizona will wrap things up in the Pac-12 against Stanford.
Florida @ Kentucky
CBS, 2:00 PM EST
Opening Odds: Kentucky -15 ½
The Gators have just three straight-up victories in their last nine games, but they are coming off back-to-back wins against Tennessee and Texas A&M. They have failed to cover in four of their last five outings with the total going OVER in three of those games. Florida is averaging 64.4 points per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the field. Junior guard Michael Frazier II is the team’s leading scorer with 13.2 PPG, but he remains questionable for Saturday with a bad ankle. Defensively, Florida is allowing an average of 59.7 PPG.
Kentucky continues to win with authority with a profitable 5-1 record ATS in its last six games, but they failed to cover in Tuesday’s 72-64 victory against Georgia as a 9.5-point favorite on the road. The total has now gone OVER in the Wildcats’ last four games. In their strive for perfection at 30-0 SU (16-13-1 ATS), they are averaging 74.9 PPG while shooting 46.8 percent from the field. Kentucky has shown some excellent balance all season long with seven different players averaging at least seven points a game, but defense remains the team’s primary strength by holding opponents to just 53.5 PPG.
•Betting Trends
-- The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games following a SU win.
-- The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win and they have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on Saturday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games.
-- The underdog in this series has covered in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games. Kentucky grinded-out a 68-61 win in the first meeting this season as an eight-point road favorite to snap a three-game SU losing streak to the Gators.
St. John’s @ Villanova
FOX, 2:00 PM EST
Opening Odds: Villanova -12
St. John’s has salvaged a dismal start in the Big East with a SU 7-1 record in its last eight games while going 5-2-1 ATS. This past Wednesday, the Red Storm knocked-off Marquette 67-51 as two-point road favorites. The total has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six outings. They are averaging 71.8 PPG on the year, but this number has climbed to 77 points in their last seven wins. Sophomore guard Rysheed Jordan led all scorers in Wednesday’s win with 23 points, while senior guard D’Angelo Harrison was a close second with 21 points while going 4-for-8 from three-point range.
Villanova brings a SU 11-game winning streak into its Big East finale, but this could be the most important game it plays this season in a quest for a No. 1 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats’ 10-game winning streak ATS came to an end in Tuesday’s 76-72 victory against Creighton as 9.5-point road favorites. The total has gone OVER in their last four games. Junior guard Ryan Arcidiacono came up big in the win over the Bluejays with a game-high 23 points and Villanova has now exceeded its season scoring average of 75.7 points in its last five games.
•Betting Trends
-- The Red Storm are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record.
-- The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games played on Saturday. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five home games.
-- The favorite in this matchup is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine games. Villanova has won the six meetings SU including a 90-72 victory on Jan. 6 as a 4.5-point road favorite.
Stanford @ Arizona
CBS, 4:00 PM EST
Opening Odds: Arizona -14 ½
Stanford is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games with a costly 2-7 record ATS. It is coming off back-to-back losses (SU and ATS) to Oregon and Arizona State and the total has now stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games. The Cardinal are still one of the better scoring teams in the nation with 73 PPG, but they are shooting just 43.7 percent from the field. Senior guard Chasson Randle has led the way with 19.2 PPG. The main problem for Stanford has been a defense that is allowing an average of 66.3 points to its opponents.
The Wildcats officially clinched the outright Pac-12 regular season title in impressive fashion this past Thursday with a 99-60 rout of California as heavy 19-point home favorites. They are now 15-2 SU in conference play and they have covered in 11 of their last 13 outings. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five games. Junior forward Brandon Ashley posted a game-high 21 points in Thursday’s win and Arizona had six different players score in double figures on the night. Freshman forward Stanley Johnson leads the team on the year with 14.1 PPG.
•Betting Trends
-- The Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and they have failed to cover in their last four road games. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 11 games on the road.
-- The Wildcats have covered in four of their last five home games and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games played at home.
-- Head-to-head in this series, the road team has covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings and the total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 games played at Arizona. The Wildcats won the first meeting this season 89-82 as 3.5-point road favorites.
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