Steve Merril
Saturday, Mar. 5
NBA
(3% play) MINNESOTA -5.5 (vs. Brooklyn) - 8:05 pm ET #510
Brooklyn has had a miserable season; the Nets come into tonight’s game in Minnesota with an 18-44 SU record, including a 7-22 SU mark on the road. Brooklyn is currently on a 9-game road trip, and tonight’s game will be their seventh of the trip. The Nets have played in multiple time zones, and they’ve gone in and out of altitude as well. Brooklyn won 121-120 in overtime last night in Denver on a last-second tip-in. However, last night’s win sets the Nets up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Minnesota, especially since they exerted a lot of energy in a game that had 17 lead changes while being played in thin air and altitude. The Nets had five guys play 33 minutes or more with nine guys playing 16 minutes or more. Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Brooklyn will be playing their seventh game in twelve nights with all of those games coming on the road.
Minnesota has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, so their record is poor. But the Timberwolves were expected to lose games to the Celtics, Raptors, Mavericks, Wizards, and Grizzlies. The Timberwolves return home off a loss in Milwaukee, and they also lost their previous home game as well, so we expect a peak performance tonight. Minnesota finally gets a team below their level, and they already beat Brooklyn with little trouble earlier this season. Back in December, Minnesota won 100-85 in Brooklyn. They led that game by as many as 20 points, and they out-scored the Nets in three of four quarters. Minnesota is simply a better team than Brooklyn, and with the Nets in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night.
Play TIMBERWOLVES (-) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) GEORGIA TECH +1 (vs. Pittsburgh) - 2:00 pm ET #542
Pittsburgh is 20-9 SU on the season, but the Panthers have won 15 of those games on their home court. Pittsburgh is just 3-5 SU in true road games with their average loss coming by -11.6 points per game. The Panthers began the season at 14-1 SU, but they’ve gone just 6-8 SU during their last 14 games, including 2-5 SU on the road. The majority of Pittsburgh’s wins have come against inferior competition like Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Boston College. Pittsburgh’s offense is only averaging 64.4 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season. Their lack of offense has been a major reason why they haven’t won road games with consistency this season.
Georgia Tech returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 56-53 loss at Louisville. That was an impressive showing considering the Cardinals were playing their final home game in a season they are banned from post-season play. The Yellow Jackets will now play their final home game of the season, and with four senior starters, we expect a peak performance this afternoon. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 76.6 points per game at home, and they scored 84 points at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to 69.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home. We’ll back the Yellow Jackets in this home game on Saturday afternoon.
Play GEORGIA TECH as a 3% play.
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(3% play) BAYLOR -2 (vs. West Virginia) - 2:00 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN) #556
West Virginia is a good team, and the Mountaineers come into today’s game at Baylor with a solid 23-7 SU record. West Virginia is 6-4 SU in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State. All four of those teams are poor, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive. West Virginia has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 7 points at Texas, 10 points at Kansas, and by 17 points at Florida. Overall, West Virginia’s defense is giving up 75.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.
Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-71 loss at Oklahoma. The Bears have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance this afternoon. Baylor will be playing their final home game of the season, and they have three seniors starters to honor. The Bears are 15-4 SU at home where they are averaging 79.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land. Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game. We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Saturday afternoon.
Play BAYLOR (-) as a 3% play.