TODAY’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE NCAA BEST BET TOTAL (Wichita State versus Miami-Florida OVER 128’ in a 12:15 eastern tipoff televised on CBS): At the bottom of this analysis a pair of UNDEFEATED angles along with a discussion on two VETERAN backcourts. Regular clients are aware that in the totals category yesterday I took advantage of so many “unders” that had been produced by various Missouri Valley Conference teams dating back to the beginning of their postseason conference tournament. Last night Northern Iowa snapped that trends going OVER the total with relative ease and I am looking for more of the same today involving the Missouri Valley especially due to the recent SCHEDULE that their entrant has had to endure which in my mind will lead to “tired defensive legs”. Wichita State participated in an NCAA “play in” game back on Tuesday in a game that did not end until just short of midnight and then the next day boarded a plane (from Dayton to Providence). On Thursday the Shockers were involved in a “late” game and today a very quick turnaround as they participate in the “earliest” window of the Saturday Big Dance card. Since Wichita State checks in having gone a massive 11-2 “under” the total in the past thirteen games (including five straight) we have market-value with the total which has “dropped” from the opening offshore figure of 131-and-a-half points. As mentioned at the top of this analysis both sides in today’s game have VETERAN BACKCOURTS including the Shockers proven postseason duo of Fred Van Fleet and Ron Baker. On a smaller scale nationally Miami-Florida gets to showcase Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan who are some of the personnel that have come over as transfers from other programs and thrived. On the entire season to date when facing excellent defenses (allow on average 42-or-less percent shooting) Miami-Florida has gone 6-0 OVER in ROAD games such as this. In the past three seasons after a game where the offense dished out 9-or-less assists Wichita State also is 6-0 OVER if the game is being played on the ROAD
“2 UNIT” MIDDAY COLLEGE TOTAL (New Hampshire at Coastal Carolina OVER 136’ in a second-round tilt from the College Insider Tournament tipping off at 2:05 pm eastern): At most offshore location this total opened up at 138 points but has been dropping due to the fact that both sides for the entire season in “lined” affairs have gone a “combined” 7-1 below the spot. But in their opening round triumph New Hampshire had one of the program’s HIGHEST EVER shooting percentage from the free-throw line (88-percent) as Jaleen Smith alone nailed 13-of-14 from the charity stripe. Meanwhile on the entire campaign when playing in front of their own HOME fans the offense of Coastal Carolina (80 points per game average) has been lethal so I am taking advantage of the “value” regarding today’s spot
“2 UNIT” LATE AFTERNOON NCAA LINETRACKER SIDE (Indiana +4 versus Kentucky in a 5:15 eastern tipoff telecast on CBS): At most offshore locations Kentucky opened as 3 point favorite but there has been inflation by a full point for which I am taking advantage. Even though both of these college basketball blue bloods are located just 180 miles apart this marks the first time in FOUR years that two have squared off. The reason why we have this clash so early in the NCAA Tournament is that both sides are the two most “under seeded” squads in the Big Dance including Indiana (Big 10 regular season champion) who as personally predicted lost the opener of their postseason conference tournament due to facing a desperate opponent (Michigan) who had to win for any conceivable shot of receiving an at-large bid. We have 4 teams playing at today’s location (Des Moines, Iowa) combining to win 20 different NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS so I will glady “take” the points especially since Kentucky has defeated Indiana in 12 of the past 16 series clashes setting up major “revenge”. Both sides on Thursday rolled to easy victories and in the case of Kentucky they have both won-and-covered 6 in a row, but they are NOT the same undefeated squad as a year ago at this time
“2 UNIT” LATE AFTERNOON NCAA SYSTEM TOTAL (Indiana versus Kentucky OVER 156’ in a 5:15 eastern tipoff televised on CBS): It was at this stage of the tournament a year ago when the opening total for a game involving Kentucky (118) was extremely low so things have changed in a hurry for a program that no longer is attempting to “run the table” as was the case in 2015. This is the second totals wager of the day where I am taking advantage of stellar BACKCOURTS and in this particular tilt we have two of the nation’s absolute best point guards (Tyler Ulis and Yogi Ferrell). As for Indiana they are coming off a 99 point performance in the opening round and now have tallied 74+ points “six” times in the past seven games. Here is an approaching 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-9 since 1997 with a posted total in the 150’s) which plays teams like Kentucky who have scored 75+ points in five consecutive games OVER the total, against an opponent who just put 95+ points on the scoreboard. A lot has been made surrounding these two elite programs refusing to face each other but it should be pointed out that the most recent clash (2012) produced a 102-90 shootout. That just happened to be the only times these pair of powerhouses have squared off in the month of March so this is very special
It looks like fade city for Merril at this point, but wutt do you expect after a run like that? Regression to the mean is all. He is beyond a long term proven winner. Like the great undergound hip hop group from the early 90's Black Moon once said "Who's Got The Props? Who's Got The Props?". Steve Merril that's who..nuff respect due.
