Service Plays Saturday 3/19/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

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I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 128 betting picks: Time to bet Jon Jones is now

Individual sports have a habit of breeding an absolutely superior competitor every so often. Golf had Tiger Woods. Tennis enjoyed Roger Federer. Michael Phelps swims. Shaun White snowboards.

These are people with talents so transcendent that it was only a matter of time before they reached the top of their respective games. The time for Jon Jones to take over mixed martial arts is now – more specifically this Saturday night at UFC 128 in Newark, New Jersey.

As far as UFC 128 picks go, bettors should take notice and grab Jones at a reasonable price, somewhere around -200 currently, before his main event bout against light heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. It might be one of the last times they have the opportunity.

“The way he’s gone through competition has to give bookmakers pause,” Rob Akers, assistant sportsbook director and head MMA oddsmaker at The Venetian and Lagasse’s Stadium in Las Vegas, said. “Ryan Bader was supposed to give him a challenge and he blew right through him. No one has been able to challenge him.”

And, after Jones gets through Rua like he should, he’ll open as a chalky champion for the foreseeable future. Consider the fight everyone is buzzing about involves teammate and (former) mentor Rashad Evans challenging Jones.

Now remember that Shogun was a 2-to-1 favorite over Evans before he pulled out of UFC 128 with an injury six weeks ago. Add all that up and it means Jones would be somewhere around a -300 favorite against Evans and purged of any value.

Throw a ticket on “Bones” while it’s still profitable to do so.

“Everyone loves Jones,” Akers said. “When the line first came out, everyone was going toward Jones. We’re getting more money on Shogun now. It’s good two-way action.”

Shogun supporters are quick to point out that Jones is only on six weeks rest after accepting the fight on short notice following his UFC 126 victory. This is invalid, because in that fight Bader made about as much contact with Jones as an honor-code faring BYU player does with his girlfriend.

Rua has more pressing concerns. He’s gone 10 months without fighting and underwent his third knee surgery for a torn ACL. Still, many respected members of the MMA community side with Shogun.

“I think this fight is closer to a pick’em,” Akers said. “It’s his experience mainly. He’s been in big fights. He’s been in the (PRIDE) Grand Prix. He’s beaten some good guys.”

“I like Rua in this fight.”

Even hearing that from an expert like Akers can only sway MMA bettors far enough to admit Rua could pull out a draw, which isn’t too farfetched looking back at recent main events.

Two of the UFC’s three pay-per-view main events in 2011 have ended in a draw after none of the previous 124 did. The Venetian lists a draw at 25-to-1 odds.

“The funny part is when we used to do that, people would come up complain,” Akers said. “They would say, ‘there is never a draw.’”

And there won’t be Saturday night. Jones is too special.

Urijah Faber (-450) vs. Eddie Wineland (+325)

Faber should win, but that’s an awfully high number. Wineland has been a knockout king lately and could ruin the party with one perfect strike.

Pick: Wineland

Jim Miller (-240) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+190)

How many fights does the younger Miller have to win before getting a title shot? He might run off 15 in a row if he keeps getting paired with overmatched opponents.

Pick: Miller

Nate Marquardt (-360) vs. Dan Miller (+280)

Speaking of overmatched, this one shouldn’t be close. Marquardt is on a different level and eager to prove himself after his loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 122.

Pick: Marquardt

Mirko Cro Cop (+190) vs. Brendan Schaub (-240)

This is a tough fight to predict. If Schaub doesn’t tense up on the big stage, which is a possibility, he’s the better fighter at this point.

Pick: Schaub

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

*Saturday Picks
·******** Double Play—Kentucky -3.5 vs WVU
·******** Double Play—Pitt -7.5 vs Butler
·******** San Diego St -6 vs Temple
·******** Gonzaga + vs BYU
·******** Cincy + vs UConn

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's betting tips: Walker, UConn look to stay hot

Lines to keep an eye on

BYU opened as a one-point favorite at most shops, but now Gonzaga is favored by 1.5

Who’s hot

NCAAB: The under is 6-1 in Butler’s last seven overall and 8-1 in Pittsburgh’s last nine overall.

NCAAB: Richmond is 8-0 in its last eight overall.

NCAAB: Florida is 6-1-1 in its last eight overall and 4-0 in its last four non-conference games.

NBA: The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.

NBA: The Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall.

NHL: The over is 6-0 in the Avalanche’s last six overall.

Who’s not

NCAAB: Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

NCAAB: Temple is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.

NCAAB: West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the SEC and in its last five neutral-site games.

NBA: The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

NBA: The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

NHL: The Lightning are 1-4 in their last five road games and 1-7 in their last eight against the Eastern Conference.

Key stat

7-1 – Record of No. 12 seeds in the eight previous games between 12 and 13 seeds in the history of the NCAA Tournament. The most recent such contest saw Arizona—a 12 seed—defeat Cleveland State—a 13 seed—in the 2009 event. Valparaiso beat Florida State in 1998 to put a 13 over a 12 for the first and only time. The ninth installment will come on Saturday when (12) Richmond goes up against (13) Morehead State.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Eric Gordon of the Los Angeles Clippers has missed six straight games with a wrist injury. "I haven't really set a timetable but I know it will be soon," the third-year guard said on Thursday. "I'm just trying to figure out when I have a good comfort level and when I'll be able to play." Gordon is listed as probable for Saturday’s contest against Cleveland, but with L.A. way out of the playoff race the team has no reason to do anything other than play it safe.

For the Cavs, Baron Davis returned on Thursday following a leave of absence (death of grandmother) as the Cavs got blown out at Portland by 41 points. Now he is dealing with back spasms and is listed as questionable for Saturday.

Biggest games on the slate

Butler Bulldogs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-7.5, 127.5)

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5, 132)

Notable quotable

“You gotta make choices. Their choice was ‘Kemba’s not going to beat us.’ But he did.” – Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun on Bucknell and its strategy to stop UConn star guard Kemba Walker. The Huskies hammered the Bison 81-52 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday as Walker did it all with 18 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds. Walker and company have won six straight heading into an all-Big East showdown against Cincinnati in round two.

Tips and notes

It’s hard to know what to expect for the Predators-Wings showdown on Saturday. On one hand, Detroit is on a four-game winning streak. On the other hand, the Red Wings have lost three in a row to Nashville—including 3-0 and 4-1 setbacks in February. Furthermore, both teams have considerable injury issues. Centers Pavel Datsyuk (lower body) and Jiri Hudler (flu) are questionable for Detroit, while right wingers Patric Hornqvist (possible suspension) and Joel Ward (lower body) are questionable for the Predators.

The Indiana Pacers should have a good chance to avenge a 104-90 home loss to Memphis on December 26. Rudy Gay scored a game-high 30 points for the Grizzlies, but he has been sidelined for four weeks with a separated shoulder and will be out for Saturday’s clash. Indiana will have to do a better job containing Zach Randolph, who recorded 18 point and 16 rebounds in the previous meeting. The Pacers should be able to do that with Tyler Hansbrough seeing a ton of minutes and playing his best basketball of the season. Hansbrough has scored in double-figures in 11 straight games and is coming off a 30-point showing against New York followed by a double-double against Boston.

Scootie Randall returned for Temple on Thursday, exactly one month after suffering a hairline fracture in his right foot. However, the junior forward played just six minutes in the Owls’ 66-64 win over Penn State. Temple may need Randall (11.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg) to see more action against San Diego, because the team barely went more than five deep in the first round (five guys played at least 34 minutes, no other Owl saw the floor for more than seven minutes). The Aztecs, on the other hand, featured a rotation of eight guys playing at least 10 minutes in a Thursday blowout of Northern Colorado.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Night In Canada: NHL betting preview

Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs (121, 5.5)

Two teams on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum collide at Air Canada Centre. The Bruins are comfortably at No. 3 and shooting for No. 1. The Maple Leafs are out of mix, with three teams to jump and five points to make up.

The return of Kaberle

Tomas Kaberle, the defenseman viewed as the missing link in Boston, will return to Toronto for the first time since being traded on Feb. 18. There is certain to be a little more juice in the building and on both benches as Kaberle takes the ice in an enemy uniform.

As for the trade overall, Kaberle’s results have been mixed in Beantown. While not a scorer to begin with, he has only has two assists with the Bruins and no goals. He has been steady though, as he’s a plus-3 and had five blocked shots in a 4-2 loss to the Islanders last week.

Home of the hits

Whether delivering them or receiving them, there always seems to be a cloud of controversy surrounding the Bruins’ hits. Last week was Zdeno Chara on Montreal’s Max Pacioretty. This week is Brad Marchand on Columbus’ R.J. Umberger.

Either way, the Bruins will have to make do without the pesky Marchand, who will sit out the second of a two-game suspension versus the Maple Leafs.

Marchand has 19 goals and 16 assists and will be missed even more in the grit department. He’s one of those get-under-your-skin-type players, who has 87 hits on the season. At least one of which, he now regrets.

Phil-ling the stat sheet

Former Bruin Phil Kessel will always be a story when Boston comes to town. But the target of much criticism in both cities is having a solid season and has clearly gotten over being the last All-Star taken in the Fantasy Draft.

Kessel has 28 goals and 25 assists and is coming off a breakout, two-goal game versus the Bruins in their last matchup.

Of course, Kessel is saddled with a minus-20 and that doesn’t figure to get much better between now and season’s end. In fact, he’s been a plus-player in just two games this month.

History

Even up so far this season, as the teams have split four games. The under has gone 2-1-1.

Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers (-115, 5.5)

The nightcap might be more like a nightmare as the two worst teams in the Western Conference clash in Edmonton. Someone has to win.

March malaise

It’s hard to believe, but Colorado was indeed in playoff contention not too long ago. A tough February has been followed by a brutal March and the Avalanche are relegated to playing out the string.

Colorado has played seven games this month and lost all of them. It has squeezed just one point out of March so far, in a 2-1 overtime loss at San Jose on the first of the month, and there seems to be no end in sight.

Then, of course, the Avs are playing Edmonton, so you never know.

Hoping for home cooking

The Oilers haven’t been much better in March, but with some rest and their home ice, perhaps they can stop the bleeding. Edmonton has lost five consecutive games, four of which were on the road.

But this will be just their second game in six days, so Tom Renney’s crew might be a tad energized, especially with the Hockey Night In Canada crew in the building.

One Hall of an absence

Taylor Hall’s first NHL fight has cost the Oilers dearly. Since the scrap with Columbus’ Derek Dorsett, the Oilers are just 1-5. And of course, Hall is out for the season.

History

Edmonton has won three of four meetings this season and the last two installments were by way of 5-1 scores. And with two bad teams, it’s not a surprise that the over is the flavor of the day. The over is 3-1 this season in this series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' roll: Saturday's best basketball bets

Charlotte Bobcats at San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio All-Star Manu Ginobili isn’t reading too much into the team’s 110-80 loss to the Miami Heat this week.

"They needed the game more than us," Ginobili said. "They were more upset than us and they are a great team. We are not playing against a second-division team in Asia. We are talking about the Heat."

And with a date with the Dallas Mavericks slated for Friday night, the Spurs have been gearing up all week to be better prepared against the league’s elite. The team spent extra time in the film room this week before enduring its longest practice of the season on Wednesday. Reporters at the session noted the team typically has scrimmages ending in the 60s as far as scores. But following the marathon practice, the scoreboard read 102-95.

“Today was one of those days,” McDyess said. “We want to do the things that will lead into Friday’s game, because we’ve been lacking on defensive schemes and out of whack on offense. We want to clean up a lot of things.”

That momentum figures to carry over against the Bobcats. Charlotte has lost seven of its past 10 games and is just 4-6 ATS over that span.

Pick: San Antonio

Cincinnati Bearcats at Connecticut Huskies (-3.5, 129.5)

So much for the curse of winning the Big East Tournament.

Connecticut responded to winning its league tournament – five wins in five days – by totally dismantling an overmatched Bucknell team in the first round, 81-52.

Kemba Walker had 18 points, a career-high 12 assists and eight rebounds to solidify his case as an NBA lottery pick. But even more importantly, he got plenty of support from the rest of the roster. Roscoe Smith poured in 17 points and Jeremy Lamb chipped in 16 for the fresh-looking Huskies.

"For a lot of these kids, everybody really except for Kemba, no one else had meaningful NCAA minutes," Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun said. "So Kemba, who's been our scorer, became our initiator. He made some big baskets, but his biggest contribution was controlling the game on the offensive end."

Cincinnati has had issues dealing with Connecticut this year. The Huskies picked up a 67-59 win in Ohio in late February thanks to Lamb and Smith, who combined for 28 points on 11-of-17 shooting, including a sparkling 4-of-6 beyond the arc.

Following that defeat, Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin was as displeased with the performance of his backcourt as any game this season. "Our guards got as outplayed as you possibly could today," he said.

Don’t expect that to suddenly change.

Pick: Connecticut

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Saturday's best NHL bets

Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild

The Blue Jackets have lost two straight and nine of their past 10 games, but things are nearly just as bad in Minnesota.

The Wild have dropped four straight on a disasterous road trip, getting outscored 15-4 over that span, including being shut out twice. But what would you expect from a team with so many injuries? Minnesota has lost 346 man-games due to injury this year and will likely be missing defenders Cam Baker, Marek Zidlicky, forward Guillaume Latendresse and goalie Jose Theodore this weekend.

"Hockey, you have to earn your bounces,” Minnesota goalie Nik Backstrom said. “Usually when you work hard and do the right things, you get the bounces." But it hasn’t been working that way for the Wild. Or for the Blue Jackets.

Columbus has struggled to score goals the past 10 games, averaging just 2.2 goals over that span. Overall, the team is a horrific 0-for-20 on the power play the past four games. One of the biggest reasons for the lack of scoring has been the play of forward Rick Nash. The team’s star has failed to tickle the twine in 11 straight games.

“He is--like the rest of the team--having trouble putting it in the net,” Blue Jackets coach Scott Arniel said. “I think that if you go and look at him the last 10 games, he is probably averaging five quality scoring chances a game. Him like everyone else, we’re hitting skates, sticks, and crossbars and goalies that are outside the net. It is not like he’s not working.”

Pick: Under

Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings

It’s OK to call the Ducks road warriors.

Anaheim is 7-2 in its past nine road games and is averaging nearly 3.7 goals per game over that span. In the team’s most recent away tilt, the Ducks spent little time in dispatching the woeful Avalanche 6-2. Overall, the Ducks have won three of their past four.

"We can't afford to miss points when everybody else is winning around us," head coach Randy Carlyle said. "That's the situation we're in. We can't afford to give up points at this point of the season."

Meanwhile, the Kings laid an egg in their return to the Staples Center from a long road trip, falling 4-0 to the St. Louis Blues. At one point, the Blues held a 24-3 edge in shots as they finished with a 39-17 advantage in rubber on the net.

"We had nothing going on," Kings head coach Terry Murray said. "There was no energy. We were totally outplayed."

But he didn’t stop there.

"That's the worst I have ever been through in all the years I've been coaching," he continued. "I've been behind the bench almost 3,000 hockey games in the NHL and booed off the ice by your own fans - at the end of the second period after we've been through here, after this road trip, going 4-0 in hard places. Very disappointing."

Don’t expect the Ducks to cut them any slack.

Pick: Anaheim

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pony picks: Saturday's best horse racing bets


Santa Anita Race 7, The Santa Ana

Early speed has been key for these Santa Anita turf races; it’ll be interesting to see who goes, and who can hold on.

Malibu Pier – Tries the nine panels for the first time and shows that a hot pace isn’t really to her liking. She finished 1-¼ lengths back in the last, but that was at a mile and just not liking the angles on her at the 3/1 morning line.

Church Camp – Tries a new distance and goes back to turf for only the second time, but I think the trainer is hoping that the speed bias helps this filly, A LOT. At 20-1 could she hold up for fourth even? Hard to imagine.

Turning Top – A very classy filly who just recently came back to the track after a close to four-month layoff. It wasn’t a winning race, and again I’m not sure a fast pace will suit her. When she won four in a row last year she never really got into a contested pace.

Washington Bridge - Bejarano might have had a choice here and went with the rail horse. Can’t blame him.

It Tiz – Another classy filly who has done well in up-tempo races, but was terrible at the distance last time. It’s an interesting choice; does she break clean and possibly get the lead? It’s happened at Hollywood on the synth.

Éclair De Lune – Finally a horse with some distance qualifications, but on the firm speed favoring turf of Santa Anita how much will it help her? Not a quick mare, but the trainer has been on a bit of streak and her class is all there.

Lilly Fa Pootz – Malibu Pier finished in front of her in the last race, and It Tiz beat her to the wire in the last. You can turn the tables on one horse, but probably not two.

It’s funny, the track is playing fast, but none of these horses are what I’d call need the lead speed. I see Church Camp, the dirt sprinter going out, and I think the others will see that and sit a bit. Everyone knows they need to stay connected to the front.

If that happens it’s a sprint for home, and I like Turning Top in that situation who should be able to stay close and who I think has a better kick than Éclair De Lune, and turns the tables on Malibu Moon because of the extra distance and an improvement in jockey.

Show ROI -61%, Avg Odds, 9/1, Avg Choice 4.2 Avg Finish 4.8 (the change helped yesterday as I gave out a pretty nice exacta, but still calculating my ROI off show betting. I think it’s the only “fair” way to go about things, but let me know if you think different).

 

[Yankees31]

justincover

$5,000**Memphis Grizzlies over 204
$5,000**Boston Celtics+1
$5,000**miami heat-8

''Every dollar i win or loose today will go to Japan. Japan need us as much as we need our picks to win.''

 

[LarsonVonFuqua]

Double dragon ncaa tourney day 3

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA TOURNEY DAY 3

TOP
GONZAGA -1.5 vs byu
UCONN -3.5 vs cincy

REGULAR
WV +3.5 vs kentucky
SD STATE -5.5 vs temple
Soumi

 

[leothelion]

NCAA Tourney tracking

Arlon Sports 4-5 (1-3 Yest)
Big Al 7-11-2 (3-7 Yest)
Dr. Bob 7-7-1 (3-6 Yest)
ATS Lock 3-7 (1-4 Yest)
Larry Ness 7-3 (2-3 Yest)
OWAD 1-0-1 4-5 total (0-3 on 5*s owad play 1-0 Yest)
Scott Spreitzer 5-2 (2-1 Yest)
Ben Burns 3-3 (2-1 Yest)
Wayne Root 7-4-1 (4-2 Yest)
Sports Handicapper King 1-4 (0-3 Yest)

 

[LarsonVonFuqua]

Double dragon ncaa tourney day 3

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA TOURNEY DAY 3

TOP
GONZAGA -1.5 vs byu
UCONN -3.5 vs cincy

REGULAR
WV +3.5 vs kentucky
SD STATE -5.5 vs temple
Soumi

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA TOURNEY DAY 3

HYDRA
FLORIDA -5 vs ucla

They added this HYDRA later. HYDRAS are their strongest plays and are generally very good. So far in the tourney, they are 1-1 on TOP plays, and 3-5 on REGULAR plays. Good Luck!
SoumiSoumiSoumi

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPER GIVES BEST ROUND 3 NCAA TOURNAMENT BETTING TRENDS
By Marc Lawrence

Third round notes

• No. 1 Seeds are 1-11 ATS off 3 or more SU and ATS wins

• No. 4 Seeds are 7-20 ATS since 2003

• No. 5 Seed dogs are 13-4 ATS since 1999

• No. 7 Seed who are underdogs of 3 or more points are 13-25 ATS (2-14 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU wins)

• No. 8 Seeds are 20-11 ATS S/95 (8-1 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins)

• No. 9 Seed dogs off a SU dog win are 5-16 ATS

• No. 10 Seeds are 5-0 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins

• No. 13 or worse Seeds are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS

Over the last four years...

No. 1 seeds are 12-4 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 3 seeds are 10-5 ATS and 10-4 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 5 seeds are 3-7 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 6 seeds are 9-0 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 9 seeds are 8-1 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 12 seeds are 5-1 ATS in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

Big East is 13-6-1 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

Big Ten is 11-5 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

SEC is 8-2 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

Pac-10 is 59 ATS in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.

Best Team SU records in this round

West Virginia: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Duke: 11-1, UCLA 9-1, Kansas: 7-1, Arizona: 5-1.

Worst Team SU records in this round

Miss State: 0-4, BYU: 0-3, Texas A&M: 0-3.

Best Team ATS records in this round

West Virginia: 5-0, Xavier: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Kansas: 9-1, North Carolina: 4-1, Tennessee: 4-1.

Worst Team ATS records in this round

Pittsburgh: 0-5, BYU: 0-3, Cincinnati: 1-7, Florida: 1-4, Ohio State: 1-4.

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Pac-10: 11-0 vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, Missouri Valley: 4-0 as underdogs of more than 7 points, Big East: 13-3 as dogs, SEC: 16-5 as dogs of more than 2 points, Big 12: 28-12 (12-3 vs. opponent off back-to-back SU wins).

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

WAC: 0-4 as double-digit dogs, ACC: 1-11 as faves of 9 or more points, SEC: 2-12 as faves of 7 or more points, Big Ten: 3-9 as faves of 7 points or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LPW Sports Forecast Arena Football

6 Units Jacksonville -7.5 over Georgia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz

30,000* Afternoon Delight with W VIRGINIA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Philly Wise Guys

TEMPLE
UCLA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

Saturday, March 19 at the St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, FL
Kentucky 75 - West Virginia 66—We doubt that Kentucky was expecting
a chance to avenge last March’s stinging 73-66 Elite Eight loss at the Carrier
Dome to Bob Huggins’ West Virginia side that kept the frosh-laden Wildcats, led
by John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, from making an expected trip to the Final
Four. Fifty-one weeks later, UK has its opportunity, although many of the faces
on both sides are much different than at this time last year—especially on the
Wildcats.
A quick revisit of that clash last March 27 is in order. Remember that UK
missed an astonishing 20 straight three-point attempts before finally connecting
on a triple, ending up a ghastly 4 of 32 beyond the arc. Only three starters return
from that evening in Syracuse, although one of those, Mountaineer G Joe
Mazzulla, scored a career-high 17 points in that WVU upset win.
Respective performances in Thursday’s action in Tampa would suggest
that the Mounties are primed for a repeat performance, given their sharp effort
in their win over Clemson, and Kentucky’s considerable struggles against Ivy
rep Princeton. But a season’s worth of observation has convinced us that the
current WVU outfit is no smooth-running offensive machine; the Mountaineers
shoot only 42.8% from the floor and never identified a real go-to threat, although
G Casey Mitchell (14.3 ppg) has hit the occasional big shot and has been an
unquestioned sparkplug off the bench. And despite the presence of another
load of freshmen in John Calipari’s starting lineup, the Wildcats have a sharper
edge offensively, hitting nearly 40% beyond the arc and owning plenty of shotmakers
in the lineup, including one of Coach Cal’s prized frosh, G Brandon
Knight, whose looping lay-in the final seconds put Princeton to the sword. And,
as Calipari is quick to point out, his “diaper dandies” such as Knight (17.7 ppg),
F Terrence Jones (17.1 ppg), and G Doron Lamb (13 ppg) have a full season
under their belts, and can hardly be considered as freshmen (not that they were
ever “normal” frosh) any longer. With enough experience in jrs. Darius Miller &
DeAndre Liggins and sr. C Josh Harrellson to lend the requisite grit and
defense, Calipari can avenge LY’s bitter defeat.

NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
Saturday, March 19 at the St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, FL
FLORIDA 76 - Ucla 64—Credit youthful UCLA for, first, building a 23-point
lead in its opener against NCAA tourney maxi-veteran Michigan State, and,
second, for holding on by a deuce under the pressure of the Spartans’ furious
rally. However, the Bruins appear to have too much going against them in this
matchup to pull the upset. First, the venue in Tampa is so very friendly to
Florida. Second, this Gator team is seasoned where it needs to be and ever-so
eager to return UF to the Sweet Sixteen, as illustrated by the Gators’
smothering, switching defenses against UC-Santa Barbara, which trailed
Florida 43-19 at the half in their first game despite the fact the Gauchos were
returning LY’s NCAA tourney team virtually intact. This year’s Florida edition
has the mobile, go-anywhere PG (5-8. jr. Ervin Walker) that is tough to track, 6-
9 sr. do-everything F Chandler Parsons (the SEC Player of the Year), and the
requisite power up front in 6-10, 240 sr. Vernon Macklin to counter UCLA’s
improving freshman double-widebody Joshua Smith.
The Bruins used their speed to get Michigan State at an early disadvantage.
But that’s not likely to happen vs. the more-mobile, tough-defending Gators,
who rank second only to Ohio State in the fewest fouls permitted per game (only
14.4). Plus, Billy Donovan’s blanketing defense figures to be a major problem
for the often-unsteady Bruins, who led the Pac-10 in turnovers and are 272nd
nationally in turnovers per game. UCLA will block a few shots, pound the
boards, and get valuable experience—for next year’s tourney. Florida is the
more finished product this season, and the Gators have an emerging force in
soph G Kenny Boynton (14 ppg), who is now more clear in his role and more
poised takin his shots. Both these coaches have taken teams to the Final Four,
but Donovan has captured two rings and has his Gator team “ripening” after
being under development for three years since the Joakim Noah-led group won
those back-to-back titles in 2006 & 2007.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

★★★Butler 63 - Pittsburgh 60—In this first meeting between these two
squads since 1946, we don’t believe the oddsmakers are giving undaunted
Butler (opened as an 8-pt. dog) enough respect in this clash with Big East power
Pitt. After all, the sizzling Bulldogs are on a 10-game streak under astute fourthyear
HC Brad Stevens (13-2 SU in March), who has won more games in his first
four years than any coach in NCAA Division I history! Physical and brutish Pitt
likes to impose its will on opponents (like undersized UNC-Asheville), but that
won’t be easily achieved vs. fearless, defensively-stingy Butler (yielding a
meager 58 ppg during its win skein), which has an eye-popping 32-1 SU mark
over the last two campaigns when limiting foes to fewer than 60 points. In LY’s
run to the NCAA title game, the Bulldogs limited UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse,
Kansas State, and Michigan State to 59, 52, 59, 56 and 50 points. “We’ve been
through those struggles before. We know what it takes,” says senior F Matt
Howard.
The strong-boarding Panthers (+11 rpg) like to feast on second-chance
opportunities, but there will be no “buffet” vs. the tough-minded, battlehardened
Bulldogs, who impressively out-boarded (32-29) an Old Dominion
squad (led the nation in rebound margin TY) in Butler’s last-second 60-58
victory on Thursday. Moreover, look for Butler’s defensive ace 6-0 sr. G Ronald
Nored (twice Horizon League all-defensive team) to hound Pitt’s leading scorer,
6-2 jr. G Ashton Gibbs (16 ppg), while Butler’s blossoming 6-11 soph C Andrew
Smith (10 ppg, 8 rpg) bangs inside with the Panther’s bullying “bigs.” On other
end, the Bulldogs own the 3-point shooters (36% from arc) to stretch the
Panther defense, while prime-time performers 6-3 jr. G Shelvin Mack (15 ppg,
4.5 rpg and dynamic 6-8 sr. F Matt Howard (17 ppg, 8 rpg, 50% FGs) play their
best vs. the best. Moreover, the second round of the NCAAs has been a tough
hurdle for Jamie Dixon’s crew, who have gone just 2-3 SU (one victory in OT;
have been upset in 2 of last 3 yrs.!) and 0-5 vs. spread in the last 5 seasons. So,
feel comfortable taking roomy number with the underdog-thriving (8-2 last 10 in
role), mistake-free Bulldogs (only 11 TOs pg), well-equipped to take this
anticipated slugfest right to the wire.

NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Saturday, March 19 at the Verizon Center, Washington DC
Cincinnati 63 - Connecticut 61—It’s said that familiarity breeds contempt,
and recent somewhat “chippy” meetings between these two physical Big East
foes would seem to indicate they aren’t all that fond of one another. They met
just a few weeks ago at Cincinnati, with UConn gaining a measure of revenge
in its 67-59 road victory for last season’s pair of losses to the Bearcats. During
that game, a taunting courtside fan reportedly lit a fire under Husky star Kemba
Walker, who hit some key buckets in the second half after managing only five
points prior to intermission.
We’ll admit to having a difficult time predicting the outcome of the rematch,
other than to say it will be a surprise to us if this bare-knuckle brawl doesn’t go
the distance. UConn (six straight covers) is brimming with confidence, following
its dazzling run to the Big East Tourney title (five victories in five days) with a
brutal 81-52 beatdown of capable Patriot League rep Bucknell in Thursday’s
first round. But Cincy is on a good roll, too. The Bearcats are 7-2 vs. the spread
in their last nine games, and they notched their own impressive opening win on
Thursday, sending Big XII rep Missouri packing by a comfy double-digit margin.
There’s no doubt that the indomitable, do-it-all Walker (23.4 ppg) is the top
offensive threat on the floor, by far. And we certainly wouldn’t bet against him
hitting the winning points if the ball is in his hands with the game on the line. Still,
the rugged Cincy defense (allowing only 59 ppg) has forced Walker to work
extra hard for every basket in the last few meetings, holding him to just 13 ppg
during those three. And, while the Huskies’ athleticism made it difficult for the
overmatched Bison to even get a shot off on many of their possessions
Thursday, the Bearcats have the frontcourt wherewithal to attack the basket and
perhaps get UConn’s young interior defenders into some foul trouble. With
Cincy’s speedy soph PG Cashmere Wright (38 assists vs. only 18 turnovers
during his last eight games) blossoming into a top-notch floor general, we’d
rather take a few points than give them (and lean to “under” the total) in this
anticipated taut struggle between defense-oriented foes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

Richmond 61 - Morehead State 60—Prior to the tournament, a frequent
knock against the Spiders was that they were too much of a two-man show (PG
Kevin Anderson & mobile 6-10 F Justin Harper). Those two are outstanding.
However, in Richmond’s tight 69-66 victory over Vanderbilt in its opening
game, the Spiders got monumental contributions from 6-6 jr. Montreal native
Francis-Cedric Martel (nailed 4 of 5 treys off the bench) and 6-9 jumping-jack
defender Darrius Garrett (five blocked shots), also off the bench. Anderson (25
points vs. the Commodores) excelled in coach Chris Mooney’s version of the
Princeton offense, which starts four tournament-savvy seniors. However, two
foibles of the Spiders shown through even in the victory, with UR missing 7 of
its 12 FTs and being out-rebounded by 9.
Will Morehead—from the foot of the Appalachians in eastern Kentucky—
be caught flat after professing a desire for another shot at more-prestigious,
big-city, intra-state rival Louisville, and then beating the Cardinals on the last
shot? Perhaps so. Richmond took in stride its own late-game heroics vs.
Vandy, with the marvelous Anderson confidently leading the way. And Spider
shot-swatter Garrett figures to present some problems for Eagles’ top scorer
and rebound machine, 6-8 Kenneth Faried (17.6 ppg, 14.5 rpg TY; only 4 of 17
FGs vs. Louisville). However, Morehead demonstrated beaucoup poise in
coming from behind vs. the Cardinals. Plus, Fareid’s ferocious rebounding
could very well be a problem for Richmond, which was -2 rpg for the season
and -9 rebs. vs. Vandy! The Eagles have four proven trey threats—Gs
Demonte Harper, Terrance Hill, Ty Proffitt and G Sam Goodman—all of whom
connected from downtown vs. the Cards in a tight game. Both teams are in
peak form (Morehead 19-3 SU its last 22; Richmond 15-3 its last 18). The
Spiders hit only 5 of 12 FTs in winning their first game. Enough reasons on
hand to be taking any points.

NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
Saturday, March 19 at the Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
★★★Gonzaga 79 - Byu 67—Teams usually evolve over the course of the
season, some positively, some negatively. And most definitely, what you see
in March is a lot different than what you saw in December or January.
Especially in the case of Gonzaga and BYU, a matchup in which we wouldn’t
have given the Zags much chance, probably up until Presidents Day. But lots
has happened the past four weeks. And on March 19, Gonzaga definitely has
a chance.
By this point, it is apparent that BYU is not the same team without agile 6-
9 frontliner Brandon Davies, whose well-chronicled “honor code” suspension
occurred after arguably the Cougs’ high-water mark of the season in a Feb. 26
win at San Diego State. BYU has mostly struggled since, dropping as many
games (two) as it did its first 28 games with Davies in the fold, as well as losing
4 of 6 vs. the number. While Jimmer Fredette’s publicized fireworks (such as
his 52-point explosion in the MWC Tourney semis vs. New Mexico) are
capable of camouflaging the Cougs’ shortcomings in Davies’ absence, make
no mistake that BYU is not the complete team it was when Davies was in the
lineup. His ability to play with his back to the basket was unique among the
Cougar bigs, and his agility on the blocks, both offensively and defensively,
cannot be replaced. Moreover, MWC observers insist that Davies’
contributions were mostly of his own doing, and that HC Dave Rose ran few if
any plays designed for Davies, who had to improvise to generate most of his
numbers. That sort of element cannot be replicated. BYU, not deep to begin
with, has also seen its bench depleted, although little-used F Logan
Magnusson (10 points on Thursday vs. Wofford) has become more effective in
relief.
It’s the Zags, however, who have really caught our eye, with muchimproved
backcourt play fueling a current 10-game win streak that includes a
rather startling 86-71 dismemberment of Big East St. John’s on Thursday
night. WCC observers point to the emergence of backcourt weapons such as
juco Marquise Carter (season-high 24 vs. Red Storm) and wispy 5-11 RS frosh
G David Stockton (John’s son) off the bench as catalysts for the upswing.
Although some still believe 7-0 C Robert Sacre (toughness?) can be exploited,
BYU is not as well-equipped to do so sans Davies. Unless Jimmer has another
40+ game in him, we think the ascending Zags are more likely to advance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

Saturday, March 19 at the McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
San Diego State 58 - Temple 57—Thursday was a day of “firsts” for these
two teams. Temple made it past the opening round of the NCAA tourney for the
first time in the last four seasons, thanks to G Juan Fernandez’s buzzer-beating
shot against Penn State. That victory gave Owl head coach & former Penn
mentor Fran Dunphy his first Big Dance triumph after a record 11 straight losses
in the event. And San Diego State won its first NCAA tourney game ever,
methodically bludgeoning overmatched Big Sky rep Northern Colorado into
submission on its way to a 68-50 victory.
So, which squad is likely to advance to the Sweet 16? It’s hard not to like
the Aztecs’ chances. They have 33 victories on the season vs. only two defeats
(both to Jimmer Fredette & BYU), and wily old head coach Steve Fisher appears
to have the pieces necessary to make it to the next round (if not further). PG
D.J. Gay is a savvy senior floor general. SDSU ranks among the nation’s
leaders in defense (just 59 ppg allowed on 39% FGs) and rebounding (+6.9 pg)
thanks to a deep, athletic frontcourt that crashes the boards with reckless
abandon. And the Aztecs got a little instant offense off the bench in their
opener, as 6-5 soph jumpshooter James Rahon contributed 12 points during the
win over the Bears.
Still, there’s reason to believe well-coached Temple is fully capable of
taking this game to the wire, if not pull off the upset. The Owls have their own
veteran backcourt leaders in jr. Ramone Moore and the Argentinian Fernandez,
who both scored 23 points in the victory over Penn State. And that duo’s size
and strength could cause matchup problems for their smaller SDSU
counterparts. Plus, Temple possesses a window-wiper deluxe in NBA-caliber
6-9 sr. F Lavoy Allen (double-digit rebounds in each of his last eight games!) to
keep the aggressive Aztec frontliners at bay on the offensive glass.
Even though the Owls are probably more likely to do substantial damage
from the perimeter in this matchup, we’re not all that eager to go against SDSU,
which is now 21-12 vs. the spread on the season. So, perhaps a better bet might
be “under” the total points, as both sides tend to be very deliberate on the attack
end and give very little ground on defense.

NCAA SOUTHEAST REGIONAL
Saturday, March 19 at the McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
Kansas State 68 - Wisconsin 63—This is the rematch of a 2008 NCAA
tourney game, when Wisconsin knocked off Kansas State 72-55, with the
Wildcats going 0-13 from tripleville in fiery HC Frank Martin’s first season in
Manhattan. We envision a different outcome in 2011. KSU has really turned it
around this season by going 9-2 in its last 11 games following its 2-5 start in Big
XII play. During its winning stretch, the Wildcats have defeated Kansas,
Missouri, Texas, Nebraska (twice), and Utah State—excellent preparation for
this likely bruising battle vs. Wisconsin. In fact, both the Huskers and the
Aggies run patient, methodical half-court attacks quite similar to the Badgers’
clock-milking “swing offense.” The active, physical Wildcats made it difficult for
Utah State to execute offensively, with K-State using its length and athleticism
to limit the usually-accurate Aggies to only 6 of 18 from tripleville in the Wildcats’
wire-to-wire 73-68 victory.
KSU’s electric sr. PG Jacob Pullen (20 ppg, 4 apg) will relish the opportunity
to go toe-to-toe with Badger all-star playmaker Jordan Taylor (18 ppg, 4 apg),
while active 6-8, 239 sr. PF Curtis Kelly (11 ppg, 5 rpg) & 6 -7 jr. F Jamar
Samuels (9 ppg, 5 rpg) can greatly neutralize Wiscy’s primary big man, 6-10 sr.
Jon Leuer (18 ppg). There’s a good chance the Wildcat shooters find the range
vs. the Badgers’ yielding defense from the arc (permitting 38% triples, 317th
nationally). Plus, KSU (64% FTs on the year) displayed greater concentration
from the charity stripe Thursday, canning 24 of 28 FTs. In their openers, the
Wildcats demonstrated more offensive balance, with 4 scorers in DDs to just 2
for the Badgers, thanks to K-State’s emerging 6-6 frosh G Shane Southwell and
to impressive 6-4 soph Rodney McGruder, who combined for 20 points and 10
caroms.
Yes, the Badgers’ respected mentor Bo Ryan (8-1 in Round One) has made
a habit of winning his opening contests in the Big Dance. But his squad has
bowed out in Round Two the last two campaigns, including its 87-69 upset
stunner vs. Cornell a year ago. So, must take any available points with the
Wildcats, who are ready, willing and able to avenge that 2008 NCAA setback,
with star Jacob Pullen especially eager after scoring only 4 points vs. UW as a
freshman.