Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 06, 2010
$30.00 Guaranteed: Matt is ready for another MONSTER CBB Saturday! He says another because two Saturdays ago we went a PERFECT 3-0 and last Saturday he went a PERFECT 4-0! He is releasing another MASSIVE card that will extend his already EXCEPTIONAL 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) CBB run! Situational Game of the Week is part of the Winning Saturday action! Get it now and cash in the afternoon! Guaranteed! 2/6/2010
Old Dominion had its eight-game winning streak snapped last week at Northeastern as it fell by 10 points to the Huskies. The Monarchs did bounce back at home against William & Mary on Wednesday as it won by 19 points in a game was closer than the final score indicates. Playing on the road has been a roller coaster this season for Old Dominion who comes in with a 6-4 record in road games. Included in that record was a huge win at Georgetown and that is looking more and more of simply a bad game for the Hoyas than a good game for the Monarchs. The other five road victories came against William & Mary, who is having a solid season, but the other four came against teams ranked 278th, 264th, 186th and 230th. As a comparison, VCU comes into this game ranked 64th. Obviously this is a big game for the Monarchs to keep pace at the top of the standings but it may not matter as this is just as big of a game for the Rams as well. VCU comes in riding a three-game winning streak as well as wins in seven of its last eight games so it is definitely riding some momentum. The Rams are two games behind the three-team logjam in first place in the CAA so a win here will at least push it closer with five games left in conference action. Three of those are on the road and two are against Old Dominion and George Mason so protecting its home court is a must this late in the season. First place may be out of the question but right now it is about conference seedings as well as byes and early round games against lower ranked teams are of the utmost importance. The top four seeds receive byes in the CAA Tournament. The Rams are 11-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against Northeastern and as a matter of fact, VCU is 24-2 in its last 26 home games with both of those losses coming against the Huskies so that tells me there have been matchup issues. That should not be the case here as VCU, despite being ranked 23 spots lower in the power rankings, have advantages in several important categories. Namely, offensive efficiency, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio, three of the biggest ones in my opinion. The Rams have an offensive efficiency rating of 113.2 which is top in the conference and good for 29th in the nation. The Monarchs bring in a solid defense to slow down the offense but playing on the road has not been nearly as good as playing at home where the defense has been stifling. VCU has an edge at the free throw line of seven percent and that jumps to over nine percent in home/road games and over the last five games, VCU is hitting 80 percent from the stripe while Old Dominion is hitting just 66.3 percent. That type of variance can be the deciding factor in a win or loss or a cover or non-cover. The assist/turnover ratio is not that significant overall but it is still an advantage and that always is a plus. The Monarchs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record while the Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. 8* (584) VCU Rams