DAN BEBE
NBA Sides Sat, 02/06/10 - 10:05 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 520 POR 2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 519 LAL
Analysis: Yes! I have been literally WAITING for this day for weeks, looking ahead on the schedule to see the Lakers in the ULTIMATE letdown spot!
The Lakers hosted the Denver Nuggets last night in the monster late-night ESPN game, and suffered a difficult defeat in a hard-fought game that saw the Lakers give it every ounce of strength they had and just come up short against the outrageously hot-shooting Nuggets. The only way this game could have shaped up better for us (and potentially been only my SECOND 3* play of the entire season) would have been if the Lakers lost on a buzzer-beater instead of losing when the Nuggets rained in shots, and basically ended the game with 2 minutes left instead of 2 seconds.
All those hypothetical situations aside, the Lakers are in a prime letdown spot. Playing the Nuggets last night, on TV, and falling short, then having to gather their things and head to the one arena in the Nation that the Lakers just loathe is a strong indicator that a few of these guys are not going to have their heads in the right place. That game with the Nuggets was, as many of you recall, a rematch of the Western Conference Finals from last year, so you know that even though it was "just another game" to some of the Lakers, it was a very big game for some of the others, and the Nuggets pushed the Lakers around. The Lakers aren't terrible on back-to-back games this year (6-7 ATS), but when going from a home game to a road game, they are just 1-3 ATS.
And, as we pointed out in yesterday's blog, the Lakers have a knack for playing very tight games with the best teams in the League, and as a result, because they're often the favorite (like tonight), the Lakers are just 8-15 ATS against teams with a winning record! That is a HUGE stat, and while I'm not generally a "trends-guy" in handicapping, this one is anything but random. This is a powerful marker showing how the Lakers have that target on their back, and while they may be able to steamroll the lesser teams in the NBA, the better ones are always going to give MAX effort in games against the Lakers, and if LA doesn't give their all on any given night, suddenly you have a line advantage by backing the opposition. That's what we're doing tonight.
The Lakers haven't won in Portland since February of 2005, and interestingly, since Kobe Bryant came into the League, the Lakers are 4-21 at the Rose Garden. This has truly been a house of horrors for LA, and Phil Jackson was quoted as saying, after the Lakers dropped a game in Portland back on January 8 of this season that he "just marks an L" on the schedule! This is the best news we could possibly hope for -- even the Zen Master can't figure out what the problem is in Portland, and until the coach can put the pieces together, make the necessary changes and try to get his guys fired up, the Lakers are going to continue to fall in Portland.
Let's focus on free throws. Over the last 3 losses in Portland, the Blazers have outshot the Lakers at the free throw line by 29, 17 and 12, going backwards chronologically. That is no fluke. The Blazers are the aggressor in Portland, getting calls, getting to the line, and consistently taking it to the Lakers grill. Now, with Brandon Roy back, the u„ltimate Laker-killer, Portland should be in fine shape to take advantage of their energy edge, and use that raucous home crowd to pump themselves up. Expect Roy to get to the line early and often, and expect another strong discrepancy in Portland's favor.
This is also the late public bailout game, and while they did pick up a big public winner yesterday on the Suns, the books don't often lose two days in a row. They know it, and we know it, and right now, we're getting monster value with the Blazers. Folks are going to try to make back their losses or double their winnings with an "easy" play to make on the Lakers, just 2.5-point road favorites. They see this line and think, "Wow, the Lakers are going to be angry from last night; this should be no-sweat," but it's so important to remember that momentum tends to carry over in back-to-backs. The Lakers are off a loss and a rather poor defensive effort at home, and while I think they'll have a little energy out of the gate, they won't sustain it. Portland is going to severely outplay the Lakers, especially in the 2nd half, and the public is going to get nailed on this one.
The confidence is high, this one is a winner, let's grab it for TWO UNITS in one of our bigger plays!