Harry Bondi
Free Pick (Now on a 10-2 Run with these)
<CENTER>College Hoops
OLD DOMINION (-6) over Virginia Commonwealth
4 p.m. EST
</CENTER>
We are on a 10-2 run here on the free-pick page and one of those winners was Old Dominion earlier this week. Today, we will come back with the Monarchs in a monster revenge game. Earlier this month Old Dom went to Virginia Commonwealth and lost a 70-58 decision and have been waiting to repay the favor ever since. Old Dom is always tough at home and they are the best defensive team in the CAA. Today the Monarchs use their huge defensive and rebounding edges to score an easy revenge victory in the comfort of their home building. Lay the points.
Free Pick (Now on a 10-2 Run with these)
<CENTER>College Hoops
OLD DOMINION (-6) over Virginia Commonwealth
4 p.m. EST
</CENTER>
We are on a 10-2 run here on the free-pick page and one of those winners was Old Dominion earlier this week. Today, we will come back with the Monarchs in a monster revenge game. Earlier this month Old Dom went to Virginia Commonwealth and lost a 70-58 decision and have been waiting to repay the favor ever since. Old Dom is always tough at home and they are the best defensive team in the CAA. Today the Monarchs use their huge defensive and rebounding edges to score an easy revenge victory in the comfort of their home building. Lay the points.
VR’s Morning Moves - Saturday, February 27, 2010
Report Status: SATURDAY FEBRUARY 27th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SUN 2-28-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SATURDAY FEB 27th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 1 = “INTERPRETING INFORMATION & DEFINING BETTING %’s”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…I am so mad at myself this morning for not following one of my own rules…Because even though we added another “MORNING MOVES” Winner to the ledge, and are now cashing 63% ATS OVERALL…I always strive for more…
And that just goes to show you that no matter how long or how successful of a handicapper and sports bettor you eventually become…as a human being, we are all prone to make some mistakes…And even worse, repeat a few on occasion…But the difference between successful people and those who fail…is that the successful ones have a tendency to repeat those mistakes less often, and more importantly…not allow them to do any more harm than they’ve already done…
Like I’ve said before in these Newsletters…those who succeed seem to understand that you do not need to follow the same mistake, in order to make up for one…And in our racket, that means you do not have to try and win back what you lost…using the method that you lost it with…
The mistake that I am referring to is being too conservative when it’s not justified…When I passed along yesterday’s NBA 2* TRUE STEAM (BOBCATS +3) analysis…I had asked that you please check back at Final Update for a possible Upgrade to a 3* bet…
Because as I stated, I felt that line should have been a PICK, and to be perfectly candid…I wouldn’t have been at all surprised to see CHAR come out as the Fav…So there was plenty of Value on them and as the day went on, I continued to gather more and more supporting information…But when it came time for Final Update, I have to admit, I was a bit gun-shy and that is one thing that people will tell you that I rarely am…So I apologize for not doing what I know was the right thing to do…UPGRADE…Because even though we won, truth is…win or lose, the most important thing is making sure that you do the right thing…And I mean that more than you can ever imagine because even if it lost, I still would have done the wrong thing…Like I always say…”IT’s DECISIONS, NOT RESULTS” that matter most…
Thank you for allowing me to get that out of my system…Because truth be told, there is nothing more powerful than getting your thoughts down in writing…It allows you to really see them more clearly and by doing this, I will be better prepared to remind myself when the situation presents itself again…that I need to focus on what I know is right, and not let my emotions based on current form influence that…And believe me, in this racket…the same situations continue to present themselves over and over…And it’s all about learning to deal with them more efficiently that ultimately determines your success or failure…
Now let’s get to today’s topic…because I think it’s an important one, and we just may need to break it down into parts…I know for certain we will cover it plenty of times in the future because it is so vital…But I also want to make sure that before we get into too much detail and begin thinking about it at a much higher level…that we continue to make sure we build our foundation strong…Because once we do that, we can then really dig into each topic, theory, concept, ect…
So first, let’s define what these BETTING %’s actually mean…and then we’ll move on to how to use them in Part 2…
Since the internet began playing a huge part in information gathering for sports bettors, both professional and recreational…we now have access to so many sources that we never had…And I for one, feel that it’s a good thing and extremely beneficial…I know that many believe that sometimes you can have too much information…but I for one have never felt that to be the case…
Just the opposite, as you become more efficient as a handicapper and sports bettor…you need to continue finding more and more sources of strong information…Reason being, as you continue to improve…you can understand so many more concepts that will help you beat the books…
But with that said, one of the most important factors for handicappers…is knowing what information truly plays a role in determining a profitable position to take…Because with the internet, we have access to so many stats, analysis, ect for each team and match-up…but not all are relevant to beating the line…So one of the most important things is developing an understanding of what is actually relevant information for your purpose…Which is ultimately overcoming the VIG…
Next, and this is probably as important…if not more important than what kind of info is relevant…You need to be able to interpret the information correctly…All too many times, we as sports bettors become biased when we have an opinion…and when that is the case, there is then a tendency to gather only the kind of information that supports our opinions…or we tend to interpret the information in a way that supports our opinion…And the bottom line is that they are BOTH extremely dangerous habits to have…This is one of the main reasons that I do not have not had favorite teams since I was 14 yrs old…and also why I make sure to use the information that I gather to help form my opinion, and not the other way around…
I compare this to the “paid handicapper” who first decides on his selection…and then goes ahead and tries to gather information that supports his selection, to form his analysis…I am sorry for being blunt, but I don’t know any other way to be…And I for one feel that this is a complete waste of the handicappers time and more importantly, the clients time…Because as a client who uses a paid capper for gathering information…Although you want to know the reasoning behind the selection…If what is written in the analysis is not actually the real reason for the selection, then it becomes useless information…And as I said at the top…The most important information is the kind that you are sure helps you determine which positions have the best chance of overcoming the VIG…
So, are BETTING %’s relevant information…and how do we interpret it ??
That is what we answer in this Newsletter, so that on Sunday…we can cover the ways that you can use it to your benefit…
I for one feel that BETTING %’s are extremely important and a source of information that should be used by EVERY handicapper for all sports that they are offered in…And even though that alone isn’t enough to justify making a wager…it is definitely a part of the equation that you will see when we dig a bit deeper, must be included…Because as you will see, it allows you to learn plenty of things about the market, and more importantly, how the market is reacting to a position you are looking to take…
The most important factor that I need you to walk away from this Newsletter knowing for sure…is that these Betting %’s ONLY represent the “Ticket Count”…And they do not represent, nor is their purpose to represent, actual MONEY being bet…
Although we can definitely use “Ticket Count” in our handicapping, we must not confuse this with “MONEY”…And money bet, is the ONLY thing that the sports books care about…They do not care one bit about “Ticket Count”…Which I am sure is the only reason that some books have agreed to make that information public, or to sell it to a site that does that…
When you look at Betting %’s…the ONLY determination that you should be making…is that there is “X” amount of Tickets being written on one team, when compared to their opponent…And that is actually a very strong piece of information…
This is what I wanted to make sure is understood…Because to be an efficient and winning handicapper…you need to be able to gather as much RELEVANT information as you possibly can, without any BIAS…Then you need to make sure that you interpret it correctly, and once again…without any BIAS…
Finally…now that we know exactly what these Betting %’s are…We are now ready to move on to Part 2, and learn how to use them to our benefit and include them to our handicapping…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 517 NORTHEASTERN -3...
This is a Side that the Wiseguys are definitely expected to lay, and because the sports books are expected to receive balanced action from the betting public…any “steam” on this match-up should force an adjustment…And since word is that it will catch some “steam”, we should see this line only move in one direction…UP…VR
2.) 535 VANDERBILT -1.5
This line opened up at 1 & 1.5...And those books that opened at -1, saw immediate Betting Syndicate Money come in on Vandi…That forced them to adjust to where the rest of the books had opened this line…To be perfectly honest, I was a bit surprised that the Wiseguys stopped there…Because even if this wasn’t a “True Position” that they wanted to take…laying the points with Vandi would allow them to get in front of the market, which should come in heavy on Vandi after Arkansas lost to LSU…The only way this line drops, is if the Outfits “steam” the dog…But so far, I have not heard anything to make me think they are going to do this…VR
Sat, 02/27/10 - 1:30 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 538 Oklahoma 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 537 Baylor
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
Oklahoma has had some time to prepare for this one...and we are seeing an over-adjustment based on the problems that they've had this season...But this is a team who is still 11-2 at home, which tells me that they have a strong home court edge when compared to their overall record...My True Line shows that we are getting some definite line value, so let's grab the points with this Big 12 Home Dog...VR
Report Status: SATURDAY FEBRUARY 27th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SUN 2-28-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SATURDAY FEB 27th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 1 = “INTERPRETING INFORMATION & DEFINING BETTING %’s”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…I am so mad at myself this morning for not following one of my own rules…Because even though we added another “MORNING MOVES” Winner to the ledge, and are now cashing 63% ATS OVERALL…I always strive for more…
And that just goes to show you that no matter how long or how successful of a handicapper and sports bettor you eventually become…as a human being, we are all prone to make some mistakes…And even worse, repeat a few on occasion…But the difference between successful people and those who fail…is that the successful ones have a tendency to repeat those mistakes less often, and more importantly…not allow them to do any more harm than they’ve already done…
Like I’ve said before in these Newsletters…those who succeed seem to understand that you do not need to follow the same mistake, in order to make up for one…And in our racket, that means you do not have to try and win back what you lost…using the method that you lost it with…
The mistake that I am referring to is being too conservative when it’s not justified…When I passed along yesterday’s NBA 2* TRUE STEAM (BOBCATS +3) analysis…I had asked that you please check back at Final Update for a possible Upgrade to a 3* bet…
Because as I stated, I felt that line should have been a PICK, and to be perfectly candid…I wouldn’t have been at all surprised to see CHAR come out as the Fav…So there was plenty of Value on them and as the day went on, I continued to gather more and more supporting information…But when it came time for Final Update, I have to admit, I was a bit gun-shy and that is one thing that people will tell you that I rarely am…So I apologize for not doing what I know was the right thing to do…UPGRADE…Because even though we won, truth is…win or lose, the most important thing is making sure that you do the right thing…And I mean that more than you can ever imagine because even if it lost, I still would have done the wrong thing…Like I always say…”IT’s DECISIONS, NOT RESULTS” that matter most…
Thank you for allowing me to get that out of my system…Because truth be told, there is nothing more powerful than getting your thoughts down in writing…It allows you to really see them more clearly and by doing this, I will be better prepared to remind myself when the situation presents itself again…that I need to focus on what I know is right, and not let my emotions based on current form influence that…And believe me, in this racket…the same situations continue to present themselves over and over…And it’s all about learning to deal with them more efficiently that ultimately determines your success or failure…
Now let’s get to today’s topic…because I think it’s an important one, and we just may need to break it down into parts…I know for certain we will cover it plenty of times in the future because it is so vital…But I also want to make sure that before we get into too much detail and begin thinking about it at a much higher level…that we continue to make sure we build our foundation strong…Because once we do that, we can then really dig into each topic, theory, concept, ect…
So first, let’s define what these BETTING %’s actually mean…and then we’ll move on to how to use them in Part 2…
Since the internet began playing a huge part in information gathering for sports bettors, both professional and recreational…we now have access to so many sources that we never had…And I for one, feel that it’s a good thing and extremely beneficial…I know that many believe that sometimes you can have too much information…but I for one have never felt that to be the case…
Just the opposite, as you become more efficient as a handicapper and sports bettor…you need to continue finding more and more sources of strong information…Reason being, as you continue to improve…you can understand so many more concepts that will help you beat the books…
But with that said, one of the most important factors for handicappers…is knowing what information truly plays a role in determining a profitable position to take…Because with the internet, we have access to so many stats, analysis, ect for each team and match-up…but not all are relevant to beating the line…So one of the most important things is developing an understanding of what is actually relevant information for your purpose…Which is ultimately overcoming the VIG…
Next, and this is probably as important…if not more important than what kind of info is relevant…You need to be able to interpret the information correctly…All too many times, we as sports bettors become biased when we have an opinion…and when that is the case, there is then a tendency to gather only the kind of information that supports our opinions…or we tend to interpret the information in a way that supports our opinion…And the bottom line is that they are BOTH extremely dangerous habits to have…This is one of the main reasons that I do not have not had favorite teams since I was 14 yrs old…and also why I make sure to use the information that I gather to help form my opinion, and not the other way around…
I compare this to the “paid handicapper” who first decides on his selection…and then goes ahead and tries to gather information that supports his selection, to form his analysis…I am sorry for being blunt, but I don’t know any other way to be…And I for one feel that this is a complete waste of the handicappers time and more importantly, the clients time…Because as a client who uses a paid capper for gathering information…Although you want to know the reasoning behind the selection…If what is written in the analysis is not actually the real reason for the selection, then it becomes useless information…And as I said at the top…The most important information is the kind that you are sure helps you determine which positions have the best chance of overcoming the VIG…
So, are BETTING %’s relevant information…and how do we interpret it ??
That is what we answer in this Newsletter, so that on Sunday…we can cover the ways that you can use it to your benefit…
I for one feel that BETTING %’s are extremely important and a source of information that should be used by EVERY handicapper for all sports that they are offered in…And even though that alone isn’t enough to justify making a wager…it is definitely a part of the equation that you will see when we dig a bit deeper, must be included…Because as you will see, it allows you to learn plenty of things about the market, and more importantly, how the market is reacting to a position you are looking to take…
The most important factor that I need you to walk away from this Newsletter knowing for sure…is that these Betting %’s ONLY represent the “Ticket Count”…And they do not represent, nor is their purpose to represent, actual MONEY being bet…
Although we can definitely use “Ticket Count” in our handicapping, we must not confuse this with “MONEY”…And money bet, is the ONLY thing that the sports books care about…They do not care one bit about “Ticket Count”…Which I am sure is the only reason that some books have agreed to make that information public, or to sell it to a site that does that…
When you look at Betting %’s…the ONLY determination that you should be making…is that there is “X” amount of Tickets being written on one team, when compared to their opponent…And that is actually a very strong piece of information…
This is what I wanted to make sure is understood…Because to be an efficient and winning handicapper…you need to be able to gather as much RELEVANT information as you possibly can, without any BIAS…Then you need to make sure that you interpret it correctly, and once again…without any BIAS…
Finally…now that we know exactly what these Betting %’s are…We are now ready to move on to Part 2, and learn how to use them to our benefit and include them to our handicapping…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 517 NORTHEASTERN -3...
This is a Side that the Wiseguys are definitely expected to lay, and because the sports books are expected to receive balanced action from the betting public…any “steam” on this match-up should force an adjustment…And since word is that it will catch some “steam”, we should see this line only move in one direction…UP…VR
2.) 535 VANDERBILT -1.5
This line opened up at 1 & 1.5...And those books that opened at -1, saw immediate Betting Syndicate Money come in on Vandi…That forced them to adjust to where the rest of the books had opened this line…To be perfectly honest, I was a bit surprised that the Wiseguys stopped there…Because even if this wasn’t a “True Position” that they wanted to take…laying the points with Vandi would allow them to get in front of the market, which should come in heavy on Vandi after Arkansas lost to LSU…The only way this line drops, is if the Outfits “steam” the dog…But so far, I have not heard anything to make me think they are going to do this…VR
Sat, 02/27/10 - 1:30 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 538 Oklahoma 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 537 Baylor
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
Oklahoma has had some time to prepare for this one...and we are seeing an over-adjustment based on the problems that they've had this season...But this is a team who is still 11-2 at home, which tells me that they have a strong home court edge when compared to their overall record...My True Line shows that we are getting some definite line value, so let's grab the points with this Big 12 Home Dog...VR
Private Players Of Pittsburgh 2/27
7% illinois (#534)
5% indiana st (#548)
5% texas a&m (#566)
5% southern miss (#647)
5% colorado st (#659)
4% pittsburgh (#519)
4% rhode island (#569)
4% virginia tech (#584)
4% denver u (#624)
4% loyola marymount (#667)
4% new mexico st (#670)
4% washington st (#676)
7% illinois (#534)
5% indiana st (#548)
5% texas a&m (#566)
5% southern miss (#647)
5% colorado st (#659)
4% pittsburgh (#519)
4% rhode island (#569)
4% virginia tech (#584)
4% denver u (#624)
4% loyola marymount (#667)
4% new mexico st (#670)
4% washington st (#676)
Brandon Lang Writeup
Saturday's Selection .... NOTE:
Here we go.
Time to bang home a big 40 dimer and set the table for a March to remember.
As I said before, I am a momentum kind of guy and positive momentum is a huge key to everything I do.
Today is one of those "seizing" positive momentum kind of days.
I am feeling great things with this One and Only 40 Dime Blowout of the Year. Feeling great things.
Now let's go witness greatness together.
40 DIME - CAL GOLDEN BEARS
The best team in the Pac-10 makes a huge statement today.
Having already gone into Arizona State at the end of January and delivered the outright win as a 4 point dog, 78-70 it's knockout day in Berkeley.
On an absolute tear winning 5 of their last 6 SU and ATS - with all 3 home wins in this run emphatic blowout wins.
Just destroyed Arizona 95-71 laying 11 1/2, Washington State 86-70 laying 11 and perhaps the other top team in the PAC-10 Washington they handled 86-70 laying 4 1/2.
This is also a CAL team a sizzling 10-4 ATS at home this year so as you can see, they are flat out in the go zone right now.$ As for Arizona State, I give them credit for the kind of year they are having without James Harden, who is now playing in the NBA as they haven't really missed a beat.
Arizona State is 20-8 SU but a not so profitable 11-13 ATS. On the Pac-10 road they have put together a 5-3 SU and ATS run.
Right there is one of the reasons you are getting value with Cal because of the strong conference road play by ASU.
They just got by Stanford 68-60 as a 2 1/2 point road chalk after going into Arizona as a 2 point road favorite and winning 73-69.
However, in the 5 games this year Arizona State has been a road dog they have failed miserably in the role going 1-4 SU and ATS.
Catching 10 from Duke at Madsion Square Garden they lost by 11, catching 8 from BYU they lost by 13, catching 2 1/2 from USC they lost by 10.
And at Washington catching 5 they were crushed 79-56. The only road dog win, at Oregon catching 1 they won 76-57.
This is a send a message game for California, and they will send it in dominant fashion winning this game by double digits.
Golden Bears roll.
FREE PICK - TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Saturday's Selection .... NOTE:
Here we go.
Time to bang home a big 40 dimer and set the table for a March to remember.
As I said before, I am a momentum kind of guy and positive momentum is a huge key to everything I do.
Today is one of those "seizing" positive momentum kind of days.
I am feeling great things with this One and Only 40 Dime Blowout of the Year. Feeling great things.
Now let's go witness greatness together.
40 DIME - CAL GOLDEN BEARS
The best team in the Pac-10 makes a huge statement today.
Having already gone into Arizona State at the end of January and delivered the outright win as a 4 point dog, 78-70 it's knockout day in Berkeley.
On an absolute tear winning 5 of their last 6 SU and ATS - with all 3 home wins in this run emphatic blowout wins.
Just destroyed Arizona 95-71 laying 11 1/2, Washington State 86-70 laying 11 and perhaps the other top team in the PAC-10 Washington they handled 86-70 laying 4 1/2.
This is also a CAL team a sizzling 10-4 ATS at home this year so as you can see, they are flat out in the go zone right now.$ As for Arizona State, I give them credit for the kind of year they are having without James Harden, who is now playing in the NBA as they haven't really missed a beat.
Arizona State is 20-8 SU but a not so profitable 11-13 ATS. On the Pac-10 road they have put together a 5-3 SU and ATS run.
Right there is one of the reasons you are getting value with Cal because of the strong conference road play by ASU.
They just got by Stanford 68-60 as a 2 1/2 point road chalk after going into Arizona as a 2 point road favorite and winning 73-69.
However, in the 5 games this year Arizona State has been a road dog they have failed miserably in the role going 1-4 SU and ATS.
Catching 10 from Duke at Madsion Square Garden they lost by 11, catching 8 from BYU they lost by 13, catching 2 1/2 from USC they lost by 10.
And at Washington catching 5 they were crushed 79-56. The only road dog win, at Oregon catching 1 they won 76-57.
This is a send a message game for California, and they will send it in dominant fashion winning this game by double digits.
Golden Bears roll.
FREE PICK - TEXAS A&M AGGIES
