Jay McNeil
Saturday night winner ...
50 Dime -- Wake Forest (minus points at NC State)
WAKE FOREST
Ranked 23rd in the nation, it's almost a given the Demon Deacons are headed right back out of the Top 25 after losing 87-83 at Virginia Tech on Tuesday. Tough-luck loss, too, as the Deacons led most of the game until a late 15-4 run by Virginia Tech knotted the game.
With that loss behind them, the Deacons are going to be out to avenge the setback and they couldn't ask for a better opponent. Though Wake Forest is 5-5 on the road, 2-4 in conference play, and has lost four straight at N.C. State, this is a Wolfpack team that has lost seven straight conference games.
N.C. State doesn't produce much offensively, averaging 59.4 points behind a lethargic 35.8 shooting percentage during its losing streak in conference play.
I know the Deacons are 4-12 the last 16 meetings, but this is a low line that tells me I just need to pick the winner. And Wake Forest has won three of the last four meetings.
And if you need betting numbers to support the play, they're in my favor: Wake has covered five straight conference games while NC State is mired in a 2-9 slide versus the books at home.
This one won't be close ... Wake Forest rolls.
Saturday night winner ...
50 Dime -- Wake Forest (minus points at NC State)
WAKE FOREST
Ranked 23rd in the nation, it's almost a given the Demon Deacons are headed right back out of the Top 25 after losing 87-83 at Virginia Tech on Tuesday. Tough-luck loss, too, as the Deacons led most of the game until a late 15-4 run by Virginia Tech knotted the game.
With that loss behind them, the Deacons are going to be out to avenge the setback and they couldn't ask for a better opponent. Though Wake Forest is 5-5 on the road, 2-4 in conference play, and has lost four straight at N.C. State, this is a Wolfpack team that has lost seven straight conference games.
N.C. State doesn't produce much offensively, averaging 59.4 points behind a lethargic 35.8 shooting percentage during its losing streak in conference play.
I know the Deacons are 4-12 the last 16 meetings, but this is a low line that tells me I just need to pick the winner. And Wake Forest has won three of the last four meetings.
And if you need betting numbers to support the play, they're in my favor: Wake has covered five straight conference games while NC State is mired in a 2-9 slide versus the books at home.
This one won't be close ... Wake Forest rolls.
BRANDON LANG WRITEUPS
Saturday's Selections .... NOTE:
Told you on Friday there was no need to press after two losing days, that my basketball opinion was just as solid as it's been the previous weeks, and then turned around and delivered with a 10 Dime Winner on Cornell over Harvard for my premium pick and Dallas outright as a road dog at Orlando as my free selection.
Today's card is massive with the Bracket-Buster games going, but I've narrowed the 100 or so games down to just five plays, all of them 10 dime selections.
These 10 dime plays are just as strong as last night's Ivy League Game of the Year winner on Cornell... just as strong as Monday's 10 dime winners on Texas A&M in its wire-to-wire cover against Kansas State, and New Mexico State in its 24-point blowout of Hawaii as an 11 1/2 point chalk.
I continue to rebuild the bankroll today and put finish a winning week on Monday.
10 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
This is a dangerous team folks.
They are long, fast, quick, can shoot the longball and defend.
Now they haven't been as impressive as I am sure Coach Huggins wants them right now at just 7-3 SU their last 10 and a not so great 4-6 ATS. However, in facing Seton Hall today they catch a team they can hammer.
The Mountaineers won the first meeting by 6 in OT as 4- point favorite and now the number at home is a double-digit spread.
This has 20 point win written all over it.
With Seton Hall off a great win at St.Johns 59-50 as a 1 point favorite, they roll in here winners of 6 of their last 10 SU but just 4-6 ATS.
All told, this team hasn't really made anybody any consistent money all year with as their 6-12 ATS tells you all you need to know.
With the favorite 4-1 ATS last 5 in the series, I will gladly ride the Huggie boys to an emphatic home win today.
10 DIME - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
This team has potential to do some damage in the Big East tourney.
In watching them beat Georgetown back on February 3rd, I was very impressed with their balance.
In fact, they are rolling strong winners of 5 of their last 7 SU and 6-1 ATS.$ And they have been a cash cow all year covering 16 of their 23 lined games with a push along the way.
Now they get a St.Johns team off a 9 point home loss to Seton Hall which drops them to 4-6 both SU and ATS last 10.
What makes this a great spot for South Florida is the Johnnies struggles on the road over their last 4 on the highway.
A 16 point loss at UConn, 12 point loss at Rutgers, 10 point loss at Pitt.
Yes, they did figure out a way to beat the Irish in South Bend but as well all know, Notre Dame plays no defense and was minus their top scorer in that contest so we will give them a pass on that one.
South Florida has got to feel 20 wins gets them in the Big Dance and at 16 wins right now, this is a must win today.
They then finish with road battles at Villanova and Depaul and home tilts with Uconn and Providence.
Realistically, 2 of those games are winnable with Providence and Depaul which leaves the battle with Uconn to end the year.
That game might decide who gets that last Big East invitation folks.
So like I said, must win for South Florida and I expect them to get it by double digits.
Oh, and the fact they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 1/2 point or less.
South Florida rolls.
10 DIME - WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Went against NC State with Maryland earlier in the week and I will do it again today.
As I pointed out then, the Wolfpack has all fallen apart since their 14-point home win over Duke as evidenced by a 1-6 run SU and ATS.
They lost to North Carolina at home by 14 and Virginia Tech by 20, not to mention road losses of 24 to the aforementioned Maryland, 12 at Virginia, 2 at Ga Tech and 13 at North Carolina.
And then the loss to Maryland just adds to their misery.
Wake Forest is red hot covering 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8 and for my dollar, this is great value with flat out the better team.
You throw in an 8-3 ATS mark on the road facing a team with a winning home record and you can see Wake is the play here.
All Demon Decons.
10 DIME - VANDERBILT COMMODORES
They will play more physical at home today.
In the first meeting at Kentucky back on January 30th, the Wildcats just played harder in a wire to wire 85-72 win.
Vandy couldn't have played worst as junior center A.J. Oglivy so eloquently put it after the game.
"I don't think we would have been so disappointed if we didn't play so poorly. Mainly we were all disappointed in our effort. We weren't strong inside. We lacked in rebounding."
At 13-0 SU at home this year in their odd gym which puts the benches under the basket, I like them in a near pick'em to go 14-0 SU.
The Wildcats were good to me in during the week with the OT win and cover at Mississippi State but I have to go against them today.
It's all about effort here and after their embarrassing one at Rupp Arena earlier this year, Vandy will give maximum effort today.
Let me also point out with Kentucky covering the first meeting laying 8 1/2, the favorite has now covered 5 in a row in the series.
Let's make it 6 in a row and lay the single point with Vandy at home.
10 DIME - WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS
This is a live dog today.
WCU rolls into here 19-9 SU and in my opinion the one of the top 3 teams in the Southern Conference.
Is a team from the MAC really almost 10 points better than them?
I don't think so.
Now I am fully aware of the fact they are on a 4-6 SU run and an even worst 1-9 ATS, but it's not as bad as it seems. In 8 of those 10 games they have been favored by 3 points or more and the other two have been a pick. So as you can see, some nice value with WCU today.
You look at the numbers and you will see the Catamounts 4-1 ATS last 5 non conference games and 5-2 ATS last 7 as an underdog of 7 to 12 points.
With the Golden Flashes a horrific 0-8 ATS their last 8 games laying between that same number of 7 to 12 points, the dog is the play.
WCU gets the cover.
FREE PICK - WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS
Saturday's Selections .... NOTE:
Told you on Friday there was no need to press after two losing days, that my basketball opinion was just as solid as it's been the previous weeks, and then turned around and delivered with a 10 Dime Winner on Cornell over Harvard for my premium pick and Dallas outright as a road dog at Orlando as my free selection.
Today's card is massive with the Bracket-Buster games going, but I've narrowed the 100 or so games down to just five plays, all of them 10 dime selections.
These 10 dime plays are just as strong as last night's Ivy League Game of the Year winner on Cornell... just as strong as Monday's 10 dime winners on Texas A&M in its wire-to-wire cover against Kansas State, and New Mexico State in its 24-point blowout of Hawaii as an 11 1/2 point chalk.
I continue to rebuild the bankroll today and put finish a winning week on Monday.
10 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
This is a dangerous team folks.
They are long, fast, quick, can shoot the longball and defend.
Now they haven't been as impressive as I am sure Coach Huggins wants them right now at just 7-3 SU their last 10 and a not so great 4-6 ATS. However, in facing Seton Hall today they catch a team they can hammer.
The Mountaineers won the first meeting by 6 in OT as 4- point favorite and now the number at home is a double-digit spread.
This has 20 point win written all over it.
With Seton Hall off a great win at St.Johns 59-50 as a 1 point favorite, they roll in here winners of 6 of their last 10 SU but just 4-6 ATS.
All told, this team hasn't really made anybody any consistent money all year with as their 6-12 ATS tells you all you need to know.
With the favorite 4-1 ATS last 5 in the series, I will gladly ride the Huggie boys to an emphatic home win today.
10 DIME - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
This team has potential to do some damage in the Big East tourney.
In watching them beat Georgetown back on February 3rd, I was very impressed with their balance.
In fact, they are rolling strong winners of 5 of their last 7 SU and 6-1 ATS.$ And they have been a cash cow all year covering 16 of their 23 lined games with a push along the way.
Now they get a St.Johns team off a 9 point home loss to Seton Hall which drops them to 4-6 both SU and ATS last 10.
What makes this a great spot for South Florida is the Johnnies struggles on the road over their last 4 on the highway.
A 16 point loss at UConn, 12 point loss at Rutgers, 10 point loss at Pitt.
Yes, they did figure out a way to beat the Irish in South Bend but as well all know, Notre Dame plays no defense and was minus their top scorer in that contest so we will give them a pass on that one.
South Florida has got to feel 20 wins gets them in the Big Dance and at 16 wins right now, this is a must win today.
They then finish with road battles at Villanova and Depaul and home tilts with Uconn and Providence.
Realistically, 2 of those games are winnable with Providence and Depaul which leaves the battle with Uconn to end the year.
That game might decide who gets that last Big East invitation folks.
So like I said, must win for South Florida and I expect them to get it by double digits.
Oh, and the fact they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 1/2 point or less.
South Florida rolls.
10 DIME - WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Went against NC State with Maryland earlier in the week and I will do it again today.
As I pointed out then, the Wolfpack has all fallen apart since their 14-point home win over Duke as evidenced by a 1-6 run SU and ATS.
They lost to North Carolina at home by 14 and Virginia Tech by 20, not to mention road losses of 24 to the aforementioned Maryland, 12 at Virginia, 2 at Ga Tech and 13 at North Carolina.
And then the loss to Maryland just adds to their misery.
Wake Forest is red hot covering 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8 and for my dollar, this is great value with flat out the better team.
You throw in an 8-3 ATS mark on the road facing a team with a winning home record and you can see Wake is the play here.
All Demon Decons.
10 DIME - VANDERBILT COMMODORES
They will play more physical at home today.
In the first meeting at Kentucky back on January 30th, the Wildcats just played harder in a wire to wire 85-72 win.
Vandy couldn't have played worst as junior center A.J. Oglivy so eloquently put it after the game.
"I don't think we would have been so disappointed if we didn't play so poorly. Mainly we were all disappointed in our effort. We weren't strong inside. We lacked in rebounding."
At 13-0 SU at home this year in their odd gym which puts the benches under the basket, I like them in a near pick'em to go 14-0 SU.
The Wildcats were good to me in during the week with the OT win and cover at Mississippi State but I have to go against them today.
It's all about effort here and after their embarrassing one at Rupp Arena earlier this year, Vandy will give maximum effort today.
Let me also point out with Kentucky covering the first meeting laying 8 1/2, the favorite has now covered 5 in a row in the series.
Let's make it 6 in a row and lay the single point with Vandy at home.
10 DIME - WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS
This is a live dog today.
WCU rolls into here 19-9 SU and in my opinion the one of the top 3 teams in the Southern Conference.
Is a team from the MAC really almost 10 points better than them?
I don't think so.
Now I am fully aware of the fact they are on a 4-6 SU run and an even worst 1-9 ATS, but it's not as bad as it seems. In 8 of those 10 games they have been favored by 3 points or more and the other two have been a pick. So as you can see, some nice value with WCU today.
You look at the numbers and you will see the Catamounts 4-1 ATS last 5 non conference games and 5-2 ATS last 7 as an underdog of 7 to 12 points.
With the Golden Flashes a horrific 0-8 ATS their last 8 games laying between that same number of 7 to 12 points, the dog is the play.
WCU gets the cover.
FREE PICK - WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS
VR`s Morning Moves - Saturday, February 20, 2010
Report Status: SATURDAY FEB 20th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SUN 2-21-10
Notes:
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Well you can’t win them all, but you sure as hell can win more than you lose if you work hard and have strong sources of information…Couple that with proper “Money Management”…and you have the ability to beat this market and turn a nice profit…Which should always be the ultimate goal…We are now “12-6” (67% ATS) on our “Morning Moves”…
So if you’ve been applying some of the concepts we’ve covered on these Newsletters to date…there is absolutely no reason at all…that you aren’t sitting back without any pressure, knowing you are ahead plenty of units on the books…And if you aren’t, then before you go any further…PLEASE, take a step back and re-evaluate your business plan and more importantly…your true reasons for betting into this market…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic, because I know that so many of my Subscribers are very efficient handicappers themselves…and use my information and my wagers, as a source to confirm some of their positions…Which is exactly what I do with all of the bookmakers, runners, wise guys, ect…that I use each and everyday…
Today’s CBB action is like no other…And they call it “Bracket Buster Saturday”…Which is supposed to allow those smaller conference programs, get an opportunity to show that they can hang with the elite…And show the selection committee that they belong in the Tournament come March…
Now many cappers try to compare this to the Tourney itself…Because it pits teams who usually wouldn’t get the chance to play each other otherwise…While others like to compare it to the early part of the CBB Season, when teams play in those “Holiday Tournaments” again…vs. opponents they usually wouldn’t get the chance to meet…Finally, some like to compare it “Inter-League” play in MLB…
To be honest…I don’t think that any of those comparisons are accurate…For starters, the March Tourney is so different because for many of the smaller schools that got it…they’ve ALREADY reached their season goal…Then in those “Holiday Tourneys”…the teams playing many times have absolutely no chemistry built yet, and there really isn’t much pressure, because what you accomplish that early in the season…will mean very little, when compared to later games…And finally, as much fun as Inter-League Baseball may be…and as much as we know the teams aren’t familiar with each other…when you play 161 games in a season, a handful vs. the other league just don’t mean all that much…
So what I’m trying to say is this…When you approach “Bracket Buster” Saturday…You have to go in with handicapping techniques & theories…plus a mind-set that is different from any other time of the season, or any other sport…It’s a totally different animal, and you have to approach it this way or else you won’t be able to take full advantage of the opportunities…
Now we all know that this is a chance for the smaller schools to show-case their skills…Obviously, they will go into the game extremely motivated, and with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder…Because they are looked at as inferior to their opponent, and let’s be honest…many of these kids would love nothing more than to start for the team they are playing against…But with that said, we can’t overlook the fact that many times, the “superior” opponent also feels the need to defend itself and prove there is a reason those kids aren’t on their team…So you need to look at the psychology of the teams and try to determine if you were on each…what would your mind-set be going in…
Many times, if the superior team is facing a team who is in their region or competes for some of the same recruits…then they will want to show their dominance…Other times, the superior team can care less…And instead it becomes a nice break from Conference play before they have to prepare for the upcoming tournaments…
Next, I like to always look at the DOG first…Because more times than not, regardless of the situation…you can be sure that they will be extremely motivated and you don’t have to guess like you may for the FAV (superior team)…And what I always tell people is that when you bet a dog there are ONLY 2 questions that you need to try and answer…Other than obviously capping the game and feeling the match-up isn’t terrible for the…
The questions are…Can this DOG actually win the game straight up ?? And will this DOG give you 40 minutes of effort, regardless the score ??
Because if you believe that you have a dog that can win SU, then you found yourself a great bet…But also, if you can find a dog that you are sure is going to give you 40 min of effort, than once again you have a great bet…Because that’s what I want from my DOGS…I want to know that they are going to fight the entire game no matter how behind that may be…Because let’s not forget, we are getting points…And that means as long as they give me that effort, there will always be the chance for them to at least cover the number…
Next, when it comes to “Bracket Busters”…you want to look for dogs that do have that chip on their shoulders that we spoke about…Or more importantly, consider themselves in a very good position to make the Tournament in March regardless of the outcome…The reason for this is because if Winning today’s game is the ONLY way they will get in, other than winning their Conference Tourney…then it may be too much pressure for them, which many times isn’t a good thing…
Now with that said, if there is that kind of pressure on the team…it don’t mean that you can’t back them…But instead, it means that you need to find a mature team and one that has played in a few big games already…Maybe in their previous Conference Tournaments, or another opportunity where they played a “Big School”…possibly during the non-conference schedule early on…Because at the very least, they have felt the pressure of being in this atmosphere…and because of that, this may be the time they are ready to pass the test…
Another positive and what we look for in these “mid-majors”…is for a team that has experienced players…Because what you will find is that on these teams, the opportunity to see them put 5 seniors on the floor is much greater than it is for the big schools…Who we know are sending their best to the pros early…So there are very few Juniors or Seniors on those superior teams, and if they are…then chances are they aren’t that great…So we want to make sure that we look to back some dogs that have a more experienced line-up, especially at the point-guard position…
Finally, the type of favorites that we want to back are those who may either not have a great chance to win their Conference Tourney, and this way…they can impress the committee by showing how much better that actually are than many of the “bubble teams”…And these teams are usually those who see this as a chance to improve their seeding and more or less guarantee themselves an “at-large bid”…In the past, these are the kind that blow-out the smaller schools because they are looking for “style points”…Which means they will not take their foot off the gas pedal the entire 40min…Regardless of their lead…Again, we mostly want a team with some experience because it’s these players that will let the others know the importance of blowing the opponent out…
And of course…we have to look at the COACH…Because for the smaller schools, having a coach who has shown the ability to prepare for an uncommon opponent is huge…And it’s even better, if he’s been in this position before, or more importantly…missed out on an opportunity for a March Madness bid in the past because he knows the importance of the game and how much it means to at the very least…keep it close…For the bigger schools, we want those coaches who aren’t “classy”…And have no problems at all destroying and embarrassing an opponent to show their dominance…A perfect example of this is Urban Myer in Florida, who we know loves to run it up…
So these are some of the thing that handicappers should be looking for…And because I’ve seen and spoken with so many excellent cappers, who were behind a lot of the “steam” plays…I can tell you for certain just how important these factors are to finding value…The good thing is that I plan on doing this Newsletter for a long time…And each year, we will have the opportunity to dig a little deeper and cover a lot more…As well as discuss other factors to consider for a day like this…Because like I said at the start, it’s like no other…So as long as you realize this, and create a proper game-plan for when it comes around…you will eventually have no problems at all spotting that value and taking full advantage…
Because we’ve only scratched the surface…And in the future, we will also cover how the Oddsmakers and Bookmakers approach a day like “Bracket Buster Saturday”…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 525 SETON HALL +12
This is one of the Sides that I know for sure are on a couple of the Betting Syndicates “Buy-List” for today…Now because I expect to see some money come in on the Dog from the Betting Public as well for this ESPN Match-Up, this may simply be a case of them trying to get out ahead of the market…to either manipulate or eventually attempt a middle…I am going to make sure I cover what these Line-Predictions are for in Sunday’s Newsletter because I’m worried that some of you may not be using them the way I intended…VR
2.) 642 MANHATTAN -7.5
The Betting Syndicates laid -7 when this line was first offered, but from what I’m hearing…they may not be done and since the Betting Public is also expected to some in on the Fav…if this “Buy-Order” does go out again, the books will be forced to adjust the number upwards again…VR
<ITEMTEMPLATE><DL><DT class=dtPgTop>Sat, 02/20/10 - 6:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides</DT><DT class=dtPgSub>double-dime bet 574 Vanderbilt 0.0 (-110) BetUS vs 573 Kentucky</DT><DD class=ddPgMid>Analysis: ** CBB "MORNING MOVES" 2* TRUE STEAM **Report Status: SATURDAY FEB 20th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SUN 2-21-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SATURDAY FEB 20th, 2010
HANDICAPPING & BEATING “BRACKET-BUSTER” SAT in CBB
HANDICAPPING & BEATING “BRACKET-BUSTER” SAT in CBB
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Well you can’t win them all, but you sure as hell can win more than you lose if you work hard and have strong sources of information…Couple that with proper “Money Management”…and you have the ability to beat this market and turn a nice profit…Which should always be the ultimate goal…
So if you’ve been applying some of the concepts we’ve covered on these Newsletters to date…there is absolutely no reason at all…that you aren’t sitting back without any pressure, knowing you are ahead plenty of units on the books…And if you aren’t, then before you go any further…PLEASE, take a step back and re-evaluate your business plan and more importantly…your true reasons for betting into this market…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic, because I know that so many of my Subscribers are very efficient handicappers themselves…and use my information and my wagers, as a source to confirm some of their positions…Which is exactly what I do with all of the bookmakers, runners, wise guys, ect…that I use each and everyday…
Today’s CBB action is like no other…And they call it “Bracket Buster Saturday”…Which is supposed to allow those smaller conference programs, get an opportunity to show that they can hang with the elite…And show the selection committee that they belong in the Tournament come March…
Now many cappers try to compare this to the Tourney itself…Because it pits teams who usually wouldn’t get the chance to play each other otherwise…While others like to compare it to the early part of the CBB Season, when teams play in those “Holiday Tournaments” again…vs. opponents they usually wouldn’t get the chance to meet…Finally, some like to compare it “Inter-League” play in MLB…
To be honest…I don’t think that any of those comparisons are accurate…For starters, the March Tourney is so different because for many of the smaller schools that got it…they’ve ALREADY reached their season goal…Then in those “Holiday Tourneys”…the teams playing many times have absolutely no chemistry built yet, and there really isn’t much pressure, because what you accomplish that early in the season…will mean very little, when compared to later games…And finally, as much fun as Inter-League Baseball may be…and as much as we know the teams aren’t familiar with each other…when you play 161 games in a season, a handful vs. the other league just don’t mean all that much…
So what I’m trying to say is this…When you approach “Bracket Buster” Saturday…You have to go in with handicapping techniques & theories…plus a mind-set that is different from any other time of the season, or any other sport…It’s a totally different animal, and you have to approach it this way or else you won’t be able to take full advantage of the opportunities…
Now we all know that this is a chance for the smaller schools to show-case their skills…Obviously, they will go into the game extremely motivated, and with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder…Because they are looked at as inferior to their opponent, and let’s be honest…many of these kids would love nothing more than to start for the team they are playing against…But with that said, we can’t overlook the fact that many times, the “superior” opponent also feels the need to defend itself and prove there is a reason those kids aren’t on their team…So you need to look at the psychology of the teams and try to determine if you were on each…what would your mind-set be going in…
Many times, if the superior team is facing a team who is in their region or competes for some of the same recruits…then they will want to show their dominance…Other times, the superior team can care less…And instead it becomes a nice break from Conference play before they have to prepare for the upcoming tournaments…
Next, I like to always look at the DOG first…Because more times than not, regardless of the situation…you can be sure that they will be extremely motivated and you don’t have to guess like you may for the FAV (superior team)…And what I always tell people is that when you bet a dog there are ONLY 2 questions that you need to try and answer…Other than obviously capping the game and feeling the match-up isn’t terrible for the…
The questions are…Can this DOG actually win the game straight up ?? And will this DOG give you 40 minutes of effort, regardless the score ??
Because if you believe that you have a dog that can win SU, then you found yourself a great bet…But also, if you can find a dog that you are sure is going to give you 40 min of effort, than once again you have a great bet…Because that’s what I want from my DOGS…I want to know that they are going to fight the entire game no matter how behind that may be…Because let’s not forget, we are getting points…And that means as long as they give me that effort, there will always be the chance for them to at least cover the number…
Next, when it comes to “Bracket Busters”…you want to look for dogs that do have that chip on their shoulders that we spoke about…Or more importantly, consider themselves in a very good position to make the Tournament in March regardless of the outcome…The reason for this is because if Winning today’s game is the ONLY way they will get in, other than winning their Conference Tourney…then it may be too much pressure for them, which many times isn’t a good thing…
Now with that said, if there is that kind of pressure on the team…it don’t mean that you can’t back them…But instead, it means that you need to find a mature team and one that has played in a few big games already…Maybe in their previous Conference Tournaments, or another opportunity where they played a “Big School”…possibly during the non-conference schedule early on…Because at the very least, they have felt the pressure of being in this atmosphere…and because of that, this may be the time they are ready to pass the test…
Another positive and what we look for in these “mid-majors”…is for a team that has experienced players…Because what you will find is that on these teams, the opportunity to see them put 5 seniors on the floor is much greater than it is for the big schools…Who we know are sending their best to the pros early…So there are very few Juniors or Seniors on those superior teams, and if they are…then chances are they aren’t that great…So we want to make sure that we look to back some dogs that have a more experienced line-up, especially at the point-guard position…
Finally, the type of favorites that we want to back are those who may either not have a great chance to win their Conference Tourney, and this way…they can impress the committee by showing how much better that actually are than many of the “bubble teams”…And these teams are usually those who see this as a chance to improve their seeding and more or less guarantee themselves an “at-large bid”…In the past, these are the kind that blow-out the smaller schools because they are looking for “style points”…Which means they will not take their foot off the gas pedal the entire 40min…Regardless of their lead…Again, we mostly want a team with some experience because it’s these players that will let the others know the importance of blowing the opponent out…
And of course…we have to look at the COACH…Because for the smaller schools, having a coach who has shown the ability to prepare for an uncommon opponent is huge…And it’s even better, if he’s been in this position before, or more importantly…missed out on an opportunity for a March Madness bid in the past because he knows the importance of the game and how much it means to at the very least…keep it close…For the bigger schools, we want those coaches who aren’t “classy”…And have no problems at all destroying and embarrassing an opponent to show their dominance…A perfect example of this is Urban Myer in Florida, who we know loves to run it up…
So these are some of the thing that handicappers should be looking for…And because I’ve seen and spoken with so many excellent cappers, who were behind a lot of the “steam” plays…I can tell you for certain just how important these factors are to finding value…The good thing is that I plan on doing this Newsletter for a long time…And each year, we will have the opportunity to dig a little deeper and cover a lot more…As well as discuss other factors to consider for a day like this…Because like I said at the start, it’s like no other…So as long as you realize this, and create a proper game-plan for when it comes around…you will eventually have no problems at all spotting that value and taking full advantage…
Because we’ve only scratched the surface…And in the future, we will also cover how the Oddsmakers and Bookmakers approach a day like “Bracket Buster Saturday”…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 525 SETON HALL +12
This is one of the Sides that I know for sure are on a couple of the Betting Syndicates “Buy-List” for today…Now because I expect to see some money come in on the Dog from the Betting Public as well for this ESPN Match-Up, this may simply be a case of them trying to get out ahead of the market…to either manipulate or eventually attempt a middle…I am going to make sure I cover what these Line-Predictions are for in Sunday’s Newsletter because I’m worried that some of you may not be using them the way I intended…VR
2.) 642 MANHATTAN -7.5
The Betting Syndicates laid -7 when this line was first offered, but from what I’m hearing…they may not be done and since the Betting Public is also expected to some in on the Fav…if this “Buy-Order” does go out again, the books will be forced to adjust the number upwards again…VR
Denver Money's 1 a day CBB thread
2/8 = Appalachian State -4.5 WINNER
2/9 = Wake Forest -6.5 WINNER
2/10 = Arkansas -7 WINNER
2/11 = Middle Tennessee State -5 WINNER
2/12 = Siena -4 loser
2/13 = UAB -5.5 loser
2/14 = Boston College +8.5 loser
2/15 = Fairfield -1.5 WINNER
2/16 = Indiana St. -3 WINNER
2/17 = Valparaiso -6.5 WINNER
2/18 = UL Monroe -11 loser
2/19 = Columbia/Dartmouth UNDER 115 WINNER
2/20 = Rice -6.5
2/8 = Appalachian State -4.5 WINNER
2/9 = Wake Forest -6.5 WINNER
2/10 = Arkansas -7 WINNER
2/11 = Middle Tennessee State -5 WINNER
2/12 = Siena -4 loser
2/13 = UAB -5.5 loser
2/14 = Boston College +8.5 loser
2/15 = Fairfield -1.5 WINNER
2/16 = Indiana St. -3 WINNER
2/17 = Valparaiso -6.5 WINNER
2/18 = UL Monroe -11 loser
2/19 = Columbia/Dartmouth UNDER 115 WINNER
2/20 = Rice -6.5
Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
40 Dime – MISSISSIPPI STATE
20 Dime – WASHINGTON STATE
MISSISSIPPI STATE --- Should the Bulldogs have some concern going to Baton Rouge playing an LSU team that hasn't won a conference game yet this year? Absolutely. I mean, they have absolutely nothing to lose, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But on the same token, that could also be a detriment as these youngsters will likely abandon the game plan and give us a dose of "street ball". And if they do, that's going to play right into the Bulldogs hands this evening. Why? Because you are going to get tremendous defensive focus for 40 minutes today after letting a seven-point lead slip away vs. Kentucky earlier this week. HC Rick Stansbury said his squad has had some of its best practices since that loss and they realize it would be easy to have a "letdown" game after such an emotional affair vs. Kentucky.
But the NCAA Tourney committee is watching this squad closely as they are squarely on the bubble with four more conference games to go before they get to the Conference Tournament. Of those four games, only one of them should give them problems... at South Carolina. The Bulldogs absolutely have to come out of these last few games 3-1, at worst, but could really help themselves by going 4-0. It all starts today, and you're going to get one of the best efforts you've seen from this bunch in a long time because it's desperation time. A loss today and their NCAA hopes are slim-to-none. And some even better news... the Bulldogs get one of their top scorers back today in G Ravern Johnson, who was suspended for the Kentucky game for "attitude detrimental to the team". Johnson hits the long ball at a 43% clip and is the second-best long range shooter on the team. Expect Johnson come out on fire to prove to himself, his coach and his teammates that he's going to play for them instead of being selfish. Johnson scored a game-high 15 points in their last meeting with LSU and my guess is that he's out for even more this time around.
I realize Miss. State hasn't been the best road team all season, but they have covered 9 of their last 13 (with one push) on the road while the LSU Tigers' main concern is not to get blown out. Mississippi State also seems to feast on struggling teams, covering four of their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Tigers simply don't cover the number all that often... 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight following an ATS cover. Lovin' the 'Dogs this evening by at least 12, but don't be surprised if it's more like 15.
WASHINGTON STATE --- If we were to go strictly on trends, USC would be an easy selection even on the road. But as we all know, if you look long and hard enough, you can find trends in your favor. Like the fact the Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win or the fact the Cougars are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double digit home loss. Trends mean nothing to me today... what means something to me is the fact the Cougars are playing at home, they've already beaten the Trojans once this year on the road, and they are coming in off a blowout home loss in which they were completely embarrassed. Meanwhile, USC is completely on their "high horse" after going into Washington and doing something that only one other team has done... win in Seattle. I'm telling you right now they will come into this game a little overconfident and a little flat. They won't shoot 47% like they did against the Huskies and they won't shoot 86% from the free throw line either. It just so happened the stars aligned perfectly that night and they did the unthinkable. Not tonight. The Cougars play better defense that Washington and have already proven they can beat this team. Tonight all they need to do is win this game and we get the cover. This one might be tight in the first half, but I trust the crowd to stay in it and motivate their boys to a second half domination and a SU and ATS win.
Saturday's Lineup
40 Dime – MISSISSIPPI STATE
20 Dime – WASHINGTON STATE
MISSISSIPPI STATE --- Should the Bulldogs have some concern going to Baton Rouge playing an LSU team that hasn't won a conference game yet this year? Absolutely. I mean, they have absolutely nothing to lose, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But on the same token, that could also be a detriment as these youngsters will likely abandon the game plan and give us a dose of "street ball". And if they do, that's going to play right into the Bulldogs hands this evening. Why? Because you are going to get tremendous defensive focus for 40 minutes today after letting a seven-point lead slip away vs. Kentucky earlier this week. HC Rick Stansbury said his squad has had some of its best practices since that loss and they realize it would be easy to have a "letdown" game after such an emotional affair vs. Kentucky.
But the NCAA Tourney committee is watching this squad closely as they are squarely on the bubble with four more conference games to go before they get to the Conference Tournament. Of those four games, only one of them should give them problems... at South Carolina. The Bulldogs absolutely have to come out of these last few games 3-1, at worst, but could really help themselves by going 4-0. It all starts today, and you're going to get one of the best efforts you've seen from this bunch in a long time because it's desperation time. A loss today and their NCAA hopes are slim-to-none. And some even better news... the Bulldogs get one of their top scorers back today in G Ravern Johnson, who was suspended for the Kentucky game for "attitude detrimental to the team". Johnson hits the long ball at a 43% clip and is the second-best long range shooter on the team. Expect Johnson come out on fire to prove to himself, his coach and his teammates that he's going to play for them instead of being selfish. Johnson scored a game-high 15 points in their last meeting with LSU and my guess is that he's out for even more this time around.
I realize Miss. State hasn't been the best road team all season, but they have covered 9 of their last 13 (with one push) on the road while the LSU Tigers' main concern is not to get blown out. Mississippi State also seems to feast on struggling teams, covering four of their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Tigers simply don't cover the number all that often... 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight following an ATS cover. Lovin' the 'Dogs this evening by at least 12, but don't be surprised if it's more like 15.
WASHINGTON STATE --- If we were to go strictly on trends, USC would be an easy selection even on the road. But as we all know, if you look long and hard enough, you can find trends in your favor. Like the fact the Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win or the fact the Cougars are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double digit home loss. Trends mean nothing to me today... what means something to me is the fact the Cougars are playing at home, they've already beaten the Trojans once this year on the road, and they are coming in off a blowout home loss in which they were completely embarrassed. Meanwhile, USC is completely on their "high horse" after going into Washington and doing something that only one other team has done... win in Seattle. I'm telling you right now they will come into this game a little overconfident and a little flat. They won't shoot 47% like they did against the Huskies and they won't shoot 86% from the free throw line either. It just so happened the stars aligned perfectly that night and they did the unthinkable. Not tonight. The Cougars play better defense that Washington and have already proven they can beat this team. Tonight all they need to do is win this game and we get the cover. This one might be tight in the first half, but I trust the crowd to stay in it and motivate their boys to a second half domination and a SU and ATS win.
