Here you go
Lots of plays today from both paparazzi and d-fence, hopefully a much better day too...
paparazzi double play:
texas arlington won 16 games in a row and that explains why a very good home team webber state is only favored by 4 here, which is their 2nd worst home line all season long, and the worst one in 13 home games. webber state covered last game but their line is stil dropping down for the 4th straight time. the linemakers are counting on a subpar performance from the home team and it will come sooner or later. that win at montana state was much more important for webber state than this game against texas arlington. it happened 4 times this season that their line did not get more expensive after a cover and they went 1-3 ats in those games. going back to last season they are 0-5 ats in last 5 in that same spot if their total is also relatively high,or at least 139 if not higher. texas arlington is not a well known team but their losses this season (with the exception of their 2 pts home loss against samford) were not that bad, comming at texas, at baylor (by 10) at utah state (by 4, cover) and at tulsa (in overtime). they are the 35th best team in the nation in offensive points scored and 26th best team defensively in field goal % allowed. i am on texas arlington +4 for 2 units.
paparazzi double play #2:
north carolina asheville is very experienced, loaded with seniors, and very battle tested with the 34th best non conference schedule in the nation according to kenpom. they are 7-1-1 ats in their last 9 lined games, so we can say that they take advantage of those rare spotlight opportunities. they are playing a good mac team ohio in a bad situation. ohio just won a very important divisional game against a surging bowling green team. their next three games are all against the mac east teams that are ahead of them in the standings. perfect letdown and lookahead for a team playing inconsistent basketball lately with a 1-2 record in last 3 games and a 2-6 ats record in last 8 games. they are also 0-3 ats in last three after a cover, losing twice ats as favorites, once outright. the last time their opening total went up in two straight games like today, they went to toledo and lost outright as a 7.5 pts favorite. their totals last time out and in this game today not only went up, but went up big time. from 114 to 128 and now to 148. i am on north carolina asheville +7.5 for two units.
paparazzi better than regular play, 1.5 unit:
lamar is another very experienced but little known team that is usually playing non lined games. george mason is a well known mid major, so it is not surprising to see george mason as a public choice here. the problem is, george mason just won an extremely close rivalry game against a very good and very defensive minded vcu team, that had two amazingly close halves. it was a home dog win and usually it is hard for a young team like george mason to get up for a lesser opponent after such a big conference win. they are already a bad bracket-buster team in recent history going 0-4 su and ats in those games in last 4 years. they are 3-9 ats in last 12 after a cover and 0-2 ats this season as favorites after covering as underdogs. lamar is battle tested with 42nd best non conference schedule this season (compared to #270 for george mason) with road games against kentucky, ohio state and louisville, close losses at ohio (in overtime) and at tcu (by 5), and wins over tennessee tech, tennessee martin, arkansas state, charlotte, la lafayette and rice. i am on lamar +7.5 for 1.5 unit.
D-FENCE 2 unit play:
Air Force +4.5
San Diego State has been favored by 10.5 to 18.5 in last 6 meetings with Air Force and they played all those games after a win. This time around they are comming into this meeting after not only 1 but rather 2 straight up losses, and it is sonething they are not used to. They have been playing very good basketball most of the year, but they were always percieved as over acheievers by the linemakers. The public was making big cash on them, but that trend is reversing lately as SDSU went 1-4 ATS in last 5 games played. Nothing unusual to see an overrated team hit the wall late in the season. This could be a very taugh game for them after playing two conference powerhouses New Mexico and UNLV back-to-back. Air Force came up with a big road dog win at Wyoming against a team that rarely loses at home, especially as favorite. That tells us how confident this Air Force team is right now. Nice opportunity for them to revenge all those losses against SDSU as SDSU finally looks very beatable.
D-FENCE 1 unit play:
Texas A&M +7.5
One of the best home teams in B12 (23-12 ATS last 25 at home, 5-1 ATS in last 6 as home dogs) with one of the best B12 defenses (#25 in points allowed, #25 in defensive FGP and #10 in 3PTP) is getting 7.5 points against one of the worst road B12 teams (18-41 ATS in last 59 on the road) and worst B12 defenses (#95 in points allowed, #206 in FGP and #225 in 3PTP). Texas A&M is also 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in last 6 at home against Missou, 9-2 ATS in last 11 overall. Mizzou has two big games ahead, same season revenge against Kansas State and then a huge game against Kansas.
D-FENCE 1 unit play:
Louisiana Lafayette +6
There was nothing unexpected in that huge road loss at Denver for the LA Lafayette. They came to Denver to play in high altitude after two straight overtime games, and that game was over in the first half. That is actually a good thing as they were not involved in a close game where they would lose a lot of precious energy. North Texas is red hot ATS as they covered 12 straight (or 11 with a push, depending on the line) but they are also 0-2 in last 2 after a straight up win. They killed LA Monroe in their last game but LA Monroe is 2-24 and they are by far the worst SBC team this season, while LA Lafayette stands at 15-13 this season winning 7 of last 10, without losing two straight since mid January. North Texas is led by 3 freshmen and 1 sophomore and after that big win against LAMO and with two big games comming up (revenge against ALR and road game at Denver) I expect this young team to get a big head today and to struggle with this sizeable chalky spread.
