Dr. Bob
[h=3]Opinion - Texas Tech (+10 ½) over IOWA STATE[/h]10:45 AM Pacific Rotation: 523
Iowa State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 and coming off wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The combination of the Texas Tech’s good recent play and Iowa State’s ugly 77-102 loss at West Virginia set up the Red Raiders in a very good 99-29-3 ATS road underdog situation today. However, my ratings favor Iowa State by 11 ½ points and I’m not eager to give up too much line value here even though the situation is very good. I’ll lean with the Red Raiders at +10 or +10 ½ and I’d take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
[h=3]Opinion – Virginia (-5) over CLEMSON[/h]09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 507
Virginia is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in ACC play this season and the Cavaliers should be at their best with 4 full days off to prepare for this game. Virginia has a very good coach in Tony Bennett and he’s tough to beat when he has enough time to prepare. In 5 seasons with Virginia the Cavs are now 41-17 ATS in regular season games with 3 or more days off between games (5-0 ATS in conference play this season), including 18-5 ATS in road games. Clemson is a very good defensive team (#3 in defensive effective FG%) but Virginia’s offense is relatively better against good defensive teams (3-0 ATS against teams that rank in the top 30 in effective FG% defense) and Clemson doesn’t have enough offense to perform well against Virginia’s sticky defense, which ranks 2nd in compensated points per possession allowed. Clemson has really struggled against good defensive teams, going 1-5 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS against teams that rank in the top 50 in compensated points per possession allowed. The Tigers shot a combined 34.7% from the field in those 6 games against good defensive teams. My ratings favor Virginia by 5.7 points and using conference games only would favor the Cavaliers by 9 points in this game. There’s a little line value here and the matchup is favorable but I’ll just consider Virginia an opinion at -5 or less.