Steve Merril
(3% play) IOWA STATE -5 (vs. Texas) - 8:30 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN) #504
Texas has been a major surprise this season as the Longhorns come into tonight’s game at Iowa State with a 16-8 SU record. The most surprising part of their record is the fact that Texas has been without their best player, Cameron Ridley, since mid-December with a foot injury. The Longhorns were supposed to be in a rebuilding season under new head coach Shaka Smart, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard. Texas is 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are in a terrible situational spot for this game. The Longhorns come in off a last second 63-60 loss at Oklahoma on Monday night after blowing a 9-point halftime lead. Now they must play back-to-back conference road games for just the second time this season; they lost 76-67 the last time they were in this situation. Texas needed overtime on their home court to beat Iowa State 94-91 earlier this season despite shooting 48.6% (36-74) from the field and being +21 points from three-point land.
Iowa State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 85-82 overtime loss at Texas Tech. The Cyclones have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game. Iowa State is 10-2 SU at home where they own an excellent +12.7 point differential on the season. The Cyclones’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land. Iowa State’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 85.8 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land. Iowa State is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Saturday night.
Play IOWA STATE (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) SMU -5.5 (vs. Gonzaga) - 10:00 pm ET (espn2) #660
Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-5 SU record. The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Mustangs will be their toughest game since playing Arizona way back in early December. Gonzaga is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU. The Zags are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their West Coast schedule against a very good team that is looking to avenge their 16-point loss at Gonzaga last season. The Zags are also playing their fourth consecutive road game, and they are doing so over a 10-day span. Gonzaga is also playing their sixth road game over their last eight games overall, and with tonight’s result being inconsequential to their season, it’s hard to imagine the Zags being at their best for this game.
SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 20-3 SU record. The Mustangs are 12-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.6 point differential. SMU lost their last home game 82-77 to Tulsa on Wednesday night. That was the Mustangs’ worst defensive home performance of the season, and their second worst overall. SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land. SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.3 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land. SMU is banned from post-season play, so this is like a tournament game for them. The Mustangs will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Gonzaga in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Saturday night.
Play SMU (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) UNLV -6.5/-7 (vs. Colorado State) - 10:00 pm ET (ESPN-U) #664
Colorado State comes into tonight’s game at UNLV with a 14-10 SU record, but ten of those wins have come on their home court. The Rams are 3-4 SU in true road games this season, but they’ve been fortunate while facing teams that play their style of basketball. Colorado State’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field on the road this season. But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball. That won’t be the case tonight against UNLV. Colorado State beat UNLV 66-65 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points. The Rams will not keep UNLV’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Rebels’ home court.
UNLV snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 64-61 home win over San Jose State on Wednesday night. The Rebels won that game despite facing a slow pace and terrible shooting. UNLV hit just 29.4% (20-68) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land. The Rebels’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially at home. UNLV is averaging 77.5 points per game at home this season. The Rebels will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Colorado State defense, so we expect a much better offensive performance in tonight’s game. UNLV’s defense is only allowing 67.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land at home. We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.
Play UNLV (-) as a 3% play.
