David Malinsky
4* Washington St -6.5
For all of the numbers crunching that we can do to break down the strengths and weaknesses of basketball teams, sometimes the sport just “happens”, and generates a scoreboard result that is rather shocking, but also simply does not mean all that much. If you saw Stanford’s 45-28 halftime lead here in Pullman on Thursday night you were witnessing just such an event – a Cardinal team that entered the game shooting 30.3 percent from 3-point range in Pac 10 play exploded from the gate by nailing their first seven triples. That is not hitting a spin on a roulette wheel; it is closer to cashing a lottery ticket. Yet the markets can not help but stamp that final score with their seal of approval, which means outstanding value to back the Cougars in a setting in which they now bring a chip on their shoulder for multiple reasons, Thursday’s embarrassing loss being one, and also that earlier bitter O.T. loss to these Bears in Berkeley. Or rather, to some of these Bears.
The key for Cal in that home O.T. win was the play of FR Allen Crabbe, who scored 30 points, knocking down 4-6 from 3-point range. It was an early coming of age for Crabbe, who leads the team in minutes played in Pac 10 action, while also second in scoring, second in rebounds, and third in assists. But we do not expect to see him here – he suffered a mild concussion at Washington on Thursday night and did not practice yesterday. It can be a major blow for a young team that lacks depth (Crabbe is one of four players that average at least 33.6 minutes in league play), especially with little prep time for Mike Montgomery to re-work the chemistry. And given the way they melted down at Washington on Thursday after Crabbe left the floor, confidence will be a major issue.
The Cougars have no such confidence issues – they have already beaten Washington, Arizona State and both Oregon schools by more than this spread on this court in Pac 10 play, while also routing Gonzaga here by 22. They were simply left helpless against that brilliant, and unexpected, Stanford shooting on Thursday (the game plan against the Cardinal is to show a lot of zone and make them shoot from the perimeter, which they did), all the while their own pendulums got stretched out pretty far when they knocked down just 3-18 themselves from long range. Now they bring the focus and energy to break this one open against a young and fragile team, and going from a night start on Thursday to this late afternoon tip-off challenges that Cal lack of depth even more.