NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (4-9) .. FLORIDA
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (6-6) ... PITT
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 183-130. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 31 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS INCLUDING THIS YEAR'S 4th outright upset with TENNESSEE two weeks ago!!! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week
Pittsburgh (+3) over CONNECTICUT
The HT and Conn are both 3-1 SU in the series. Here in 2006, Pitt suffered a tough loss as they led 31-14 in the 4Q but on the last play UC got a TD to force OT and won 46-45 in 2 OT’s on a 2 pt conv. LY Pitt was -8’ at home but UC led 27-7 at the half with a 218-101 yd edge (34-7 in 3Q) and rolled 34-14. Conn is 7-2 ATS as a HD and Pitt is 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS after the Brawl. This will be a battle between the top 2 backs in the BE. Conn is off a disappointing 17-13 loss to USF. QB Lorenzen has thrown for just 95 ypg (44%) with a 1-0 ratio the L/2 since returning from inj. He has had little help at the WR position. RB Brown was slighted by Doak Walker voters despite rushing for an NCAA leading 148 ypg (5.4) & 16 TD’s. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Their defense is all’g 120 rush ypg (3.6). Pitt defeated WV in The Backyard Brawl for the 2nd year in a row 19-15. Shady McCoy scored with :52 left and rushed for a career high 183 yds. QB Stull is avg 197 ypg (59%) with an 8-7 ratio. McCoy continues to be the star of the show avg 119 ypg (5.0) and 20 TD’s. Their defense is all’g 119 ypg rush (3.5) including 109 ypg in BE play incl holding WV to 157 rush yds. Pitt has off (#37-59) and ST’s (#42-102) edges while Conn has a slight def edge (#21-25) despite playing the weaker sked (#54-25). The Huskies have been solid at home with a 29-9 record at Rentschler Field and are 6-0-1 ATS in home finales since moving to IA. Pitt has been bowl-less the L/3Y and will finish strong here with the Sun Bowl on the horizon. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 27 CONNECTICUT 17
KEY SELECTIONS
4* † Florida over Alabama - SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Georgia Dome.
The last time these 2 SEC powers met in the SEC Championship gm (1999), #7 Alabama defeated #5 Florida 34-7 (UF -6’). The last meeting between these 2 teams was a 28-13 UF win in Gainesville in ‘06 (UF -15). UF is 0-5-2 ATS since ‘94 in this series (3-4 SU) and the Gators are 7-8 SU & 6-9-1 ATS vs SEC West schools (2-1 SU/ATS TY). These 2 teams have met 5 times in the SEC Champ gm with UF holding a 3-2 advantage (2-2-1 ATS). UF is the only team in the nation with a top 5 off (#2) and def (#5) and they also have our #6 sp tms. Bama ranks #21 on off, #6 on def & #47 on sp tms. UF QB Tebow has brought his name back into the Heisman conversation leading the tm to 8 straight wins by an avg of 52-12 and is avg 192 ypg (65%) with a 25-2 ratio and 507 rush (3.7) with 12 TD. WR Harvin has 595 rec yds (17.0) and 538 rush (8.8) but is a ? for this gm after suffering an ankle inj in UF’s 45-15 win over rival FSU LW. UF has rushed for 300+ yds in the L/3 gms. UF is allowing 102 ypg rush (3.3) and is #5 in our pass D rankings. #1 Bama is the only undefeated BCS team left and Saban has led his team to a 5 gm improvement over LY in just his 2nd yr at the helm. Bama is off a 36-0 win over rival Aub which ended Aub’s 6 gm Iron Bowl series win streak. UA has won gms with a strong rush attack avg 202 ypg (4.8) led by RB Coffee (1235, 6.2) and their strong defense (74 rush ypg allowed, 2.7, #9 pass D ranking). QB JP Wilson is more of a gm manager TY avg just 159 pass ypg (59%) with a 9-5 ratio. True frosh WR Jones (PS#1) leads the tm with 723 (15.7). UF is 5-0 ATS away from The Swamp TY (all as fav) but UA has 2 outright upsets as a dog away from Tuscaloosa TY (Clemson & UGA). While these are 2 of the top coaches in the country with superb game-planning, Meyer has the talent and speed edge and the Gators should be playing for their 2nd BCS Title in 3 yrs after a solid win over the Tide. FORECAST: Florida 41 Alabama 17
3* TULSA over East Carolina - CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - TU has won and covered both in CUSA play. The Pirates’ ssn has been a roller coaster ride. They opened with wins over #17 VA Tech (27-22, +9’) and #8 WVU (24-3, +7’) and were ranked #15 after a victory over Tulane moved them to 3-0. EC then lost 3 in a row (OT at NCSt, at UVA), incl a 41-24 (-10’) home loss to Houston. EC finished the yr winning 5 of 6 with their only loss coming at S Miss (21-3, +3). EC is 4-8 ATS and ended the regular season on a 2-8 ATS run and did not cover in a true road gm the entire ssn (0-6, avg ATS loss by 10’). The Pirates are off a 53-21 (-6’) home win over UTEP, in which they outgained the Miners 475-370. EC had their highest rushing output of the ssn with 231 yds (4.4) and the 53 pts were 23 better than their previous season high (30 vs Mem). QB Pinkney has re-established himself as the starter, after splitting time with Kass (25-54, 321 yds, 2-2 ratio on yr) in the middle of the ssn. Pinkney is avg 188 ypg (64%) with an 11-7 ratio. RB Whitley leads the team with 563 yds (4.7). The WR position has been devastated by injuries and TE Drew is the leading active receiver with 547 yds (15.6). The Pirates rely on their D to win games. EC is #1 in CUSA allowing just 20.5 ppg and 329 ypg. DE CJ Wilson is #15 in NCAA with 17 tfl. Tulsa looked like a BCS buster early in the season, getting off to an 8-0 start (6-2 ATS), but a loss at Arkansas burst their bubble. TU was in a 3 way tie in CUSA West heading into the final week. The Hurricane got a win over Marshall and received some help as Rice defeated Houston, which put TU in the championship game for the 2nd year in a row. Tulsa went 7-1 in conf play, which earned them the home field advantage here and they have been dominant at home, going 5-0 SU/ATS against IA opp, with an avg cover by almost 21 pts. TU won at Marshall 38-35 (-16) LW as they outgained MU 516-437 but needed a 4Q FG to pull out the win. TU is #2 in NCAA avg 49 ppg and QB Johnson is #1 in pass eff, avg 306 ypg (66%) with a 42-13 ratio. The TU ground game often gets overlooked, but they are #7 in NCAA avg 259 ypg (5.6). RB Adams leads the way with 1,196 yds (6.0). Marion is the big play WR and leads the team with 1,058 rec yds (27.1!), incl a school-record 97 yd TD vs UTEP. Tulsa’s D has struggled at times. They are allowing 29 ppg and are #94 in NCAA allowing 401 ypg. TU avg 3 sacks per game (36 total), which is #6 in NCAA. The winner earns a trip to the Liberty Bowl to play an SEC opp, while the loser is likely headed to the GMAC Bowl. Tulsa is avg 61 ppg at home, while EC avg just 19 ppg on the road, so we will side with the home team which has yet to be challenged at Chapman Stadium. FORECAST: TULSA 47 East Carolina 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* TROY over Arkansas St - While Troy is 2-6 SU all-time vs Ark St, their 6 losses have been by a combined 20 points. In ‘06 here Troy was playing a meaningless game as the next week’s matchup vs Mid Tenn St would determine the SBC Title and ASU got a TD with :17 left to pull out a 33-26 road upset (+8). The only other SBC home loss for the Trojans came in ‘05 when they were knocked off by MT. The next time the Raiders came to town they were thrashed 45-7 (-12). Last year Troy only had a 158-151 yd edge at the half but shutout ASU 27-0 on the road (-5). Troy is 4-2 ATS vs conf foes TY while ASU is 1-5 (0-3 ATS on the road). Troy has lost 3 straight FHG SU but is fresh off a bye. Prior to the bye they beat ULL 48-3 and are currently the SBC leader at 5-1. They outgained ULL 459-255 and outFD’d them 26-12. QB Brown is avg 243 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio vs SBC foes and RB Harris has 754 yds (5.8). ASU plays for a 3rd straight week and is off a 33-28 win over N Texas making them bowl eligible for the 3rd time in 4 yrs. QB Leonard is avg 215 ypg (55%) with a 9-3 ratio and RB Arnold has 593 yds (4.9) vs SBC foes. Troy has edges on off (#55-78), def (#56-75) and spec tms (#27-71) and has scored 30 or more pts in 6 of L/7 gms. If ULL loses on Wed this would be the SBC Title game and we lean with the more experienced Trojans. FORECAST: TROY 34 Arkansas St 17
